Polling
It doesn’t matter if the election is three years or three days away, we’re constantly reminded who the most popular party is, who’s got the preferences, and who’s the preferred prime minister. It never seems to be the actual prime minister or the opposition leader, which is curious.
Every time I see one of these polls, I’m reminded of how I constantly check my phone for messages from my girlfriend. There never is any, because I don’t have one. Political polling is that pointless.
Where do these numbers come from? A surprisingly small number of people, often barely over a thousand. The polls claim a margin of error of only a few per cent, but in Australia we’re talking about complex issues and over 20 million people. I fondly remember a ‘Yes Prime Minister’ sketch that exposed political polling for the farce that it is (see above).
Continue reading "Who really cares what average Australians think?" »
So a crack commando unit of researchers from the University of Western Australia has found that people who place Australian flags on their cars are more likely to express racist attitudes than people who don’t.
The team of researchers discovered this through a comprehensive census of a vast crowd of 102 car-flag-bearing Austrayans havin’ a rip-roarin’ Oz Day barbie in Perth last year. It’s an incredibly groundbreaking and revealing set of data.
Except for the fact it’s a load of codswallop. And we’ve beaten them to the punch, if you’ll excuse the pun.
Continue reading "Flying the flag for lazy gotcha polling" »
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Roger S says:
that girl in the Aussie flag is pretty hot, found some more photos of her http://photography.aukihenry.com/search/label/Mel Bridge Read more »
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donna says:
good on ye old chook im irish an living here ,, i have adopted the aussie way of life an i dont agree with foriegners coming here an not adapting to the ways of this country,,when i left ireland i had to sign a stat dec stating that i speak… Read more »
The Prime Minister has been strutting her stuff in the Oval Office, but back home, her popularity has gone pear-shaped. There has never been a poll plunge so swift as this week’s Newspoll.
So what can she do to rediscover her mojo? is there any way back? Here’s what The Punch team thinks ...
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cheap jordan 4 shoes says:
Hello Pat,See what blurry vision does for you? I am so sorry for misken your guest blogger for you!Hope you are felling better! Read more »
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Luke says:
Having two Prime Ministers is a bit of a problem for her mojo I feel. I think Julia should check with Australia’s other Prime Minister about our position on the “no fly zone” over Libya before she addresses the UN. I get a strange suspicion the other Prime Minister has… Read more »
When should Australia wage war? Has anyone asked you? Have you given it much thought or is that a job best left to the government?
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that twenty one Australian men lie dead, lost on the battlefields of Afganistan. Each of them is easy to admire - young, supremely fit, highly trained, brave soldiers.
It’s pretty clear they all possessed courage and commitment to their task, their training and their mates most of us would struggle to emulate. They all have families and friends - even more tragically, a number of them have young children who will never see or know their dads.
Continue reading "Most think our leaders have it about right on Afghanistan" »
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Sean Williams says:
The sample of 1,500 is actually more than the paltry Australian contribution to the mission. Britain has 10,000 troops in Afghanistan and has had more than 300 killed. As it was in Iraq, the Australian aim is to look as though it is involved while avoiding as exposure to actual… Read more »
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Dan says:
Deciding to go to war doesn’t make one a leader. Making the right decision to go to war, or not to go to war, makes one a leader. Read more »
Sometimes a response to a polling question comes along that makes you re-evaluate your preconceived ideas, where the public’s refusal to confirm your gut instincts forces you to have a fresh look at the evidence before you.
Asking people to cast stones at the media’s reporting of the federal election seemed like a simple enough exercise, the public would confirm the media did a poor job and we could all wring our hands about democracy once again denied.
But hold the presses. Something is amiss. Fewer than a quarter of respondents to the Essential Report join the party. One third rate the coverage at election time ‘good’, a further 40 per cent ‘average’. And far more say the media ‘gave fair coverage of all parties’ than thought they favoured a particular side.
Continue reading "Stop the presses: the media aren’t that crap" »
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M Singh says:
I watch the Bias towards the Labor Party trotted out daily from many media sources.It makes me want to heave.It is a pity that Tony Abbott ,and the Liberals never come under the same scrutiny.I personally would like to see Paul Kelly ,and many others booted from Sky… Read more »
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http://lknorthface.blogbaker.com/ says:
Have you ever considered about adding a little bit more than just your articles? I mean, what you say is important and everything. But imagine if you added some great visuals or videos to give your posts more, “pop”! Your content is excellent but with pics and clips, this site… Read more »
When the political history of 2010 is written, every element of the closest election in a generation will be rightly scrutinized. The winning side will get home by a hair’s breadth but could it be hair that determines the result?
Because there is a minority group whose natural connection with their chief advocate did not translate into votes on August 22 Australia’s rangas turned on Julia Gillard at the moment she needed their support most.
Exclusive hair-based research from the Punch shows that redheads turned their locks away from Gillard, being the least likely hair coloured group to support the ALP.
Continue reading "This election was not the ranga revolution predicted" »
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Robert Smissen, rural SA, God's own country says:
Old Clive, we no longer use the term “Baldy” the correct termanology is “Eggshell Blonde” Read more »
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Chris L says:
@Ronk indeed, just the one… unless any proof comes from: “criticism of Liberal backbencher Alby Schultz for calling independent MP Tony Windsor, with allegations that he abused him and told him to support the Coalition.” At the very least one of the accusations is true, possibly more. On the other… Read more »
It was one of the funniest exchanges on television since Homer Simpson was interviewed by Kent Brockman on Smartline about his decision to form a vigilante gang.
Simpson: “Oh, Kent, I’d be lying if I said my men weren’t committing crimes.” Brockman: “Well, touché.”
On The 7.30 Report on Tuesday night, Greens Leader Senator Bob Brown came under some fairly routine questioning from Kerry O’Brien about asylum seekers. O’Brien asked Brown whether he thought that any of the people who arrived illegally in Australia should ever be sent back to any of the countries they had fled.
Brown had a “this does not compute” moment and blanked out, and then shot back at O’Brien to ask him whether he thought that any of them should be sent back.
Continue reading "The Greens should look at replacing leader Bob Brown" »
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Natasha says:
The Greens won’t replace Bob Brown because he represents the original Greens image. Unlike many of the current Green members who are more interested in what they call “social justice”. Of course social justice is a term which can be moved around very flexibly. Greens have got into our council… Read more »
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ann fenton says:
Ha Ha, the Greens DID win Melbourne! Read more »
There is a wildcard hanging over the upcoming election, a factor outside the control of the any politician – it resembles an angry fish, and it is looking for someone to bite.
It is the long-term trend line on people’s economic confidence, and it shows that after we sounded a collective sigh of relief last year, we are beginning to fear the worst again, a sense of economy insecurity that can affect our work, our home lives - and the way we look at politics.
The story of the fish charts the highs and lows of first term Labor, it also offers some tantalising clues about what happens next. Why a fish? As the graph above shows, the competing stories of confidence and despondency have taken a wild journey over the past two years. With fear surging as the GFC hit, curtailing as stimulus stabilised the economy, but now rising again.
Continue reading "The angry fish that could change Australia" »
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Front up says:
Actually, MarK, You might be on to something… We already know the limits of what the Libs/Nats were prepared to offer its business constituency. (God alone knows why they ever took the no-disadvantage stuff out of the IR laws, they’d still be there if they’d skipped that.) What we don’t… Read more »
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Sirro says:
Anyone who seriously thinks that Rudd or his team of 30 something advisors actually knew anything about what was going on during the darkest parts of the GFC should read this excellant article linked below: http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2935792.htm What Labor and Mr Lewis constanly neglect to mention is that the Rudd/Gillard/Swan government… Read more »
UPDATE 8.05am: Kevin Rudd has just appeared on AM saying “We’ve got a huge amount of work to do to explain my plans”... saying Tony Abbott’s plan is clear, cuts to health and the return of WorkChoices. “The key challenge for the government is to explain very clearly what our plans are for the future…” He refused to acknowledge that he’s broken any promises. He also said the RSPT was about “making our companies more competitive globally.”
Another week, another shocking poll result for Kevin Rudd’s Government.
This time it’s in the Fairfax papers, who are now reporting that the Rudd Government would be “wiped out” if there were an election held now.
According to a Nielsen Poll published in the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age the Coalition leads Labor 53-47.
Continue reading "Campaign countdown: it just got a lot worse for Rudd" »
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tim says:
Saskia, I loathe Rudd like the majority of voters but do you have any links to these Rudds rat-f@#$ comment in the Chinese media?. I had a quick look but couldnt find any. Read more »
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Steve Putnam says:
You have to be joking! At present we are better placed than any other country in the world. We have the lowest unemployment of any developed country, none of our major financial institutions went under and our debt as a percentage of GDP is about a fifth or less than… Read more »
Tony Abbott’s foray into progressive social policy has backfired, with his conservative base rejecting has plan to tax big business to pay for improved parental leave.
In the first serious signs that the Mad Monk’s honeymoon as leader is over, this week’s Essential Report finds the Liberal leader has cashed in his credentials as an economic conservative for no real gain, with little support for this family plan.
After watching the polls narrow to within striking distance over the summer, the Coalition heartland must now be wondering whether Mark Latham has returned to politics in a different set of Speedos.
Continue reading "Parental leave: the moment Abbott jumped the shark" »
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David says:
You can find many funny photoshopped images and sometimes images not photoshopped with image original quality. How to find out whether the image is original or photoshopped picture ? Here is an online tool that let you to find if the image has gone under some digital manipulation: Photoshopped Image… Read more »
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Steve Turner says:
Andrew, Bit scary that you believe it’s ok that a polling company that the likes of Sky News relies on, is as you say, a front for the left. It may not have occurred, but much of your premise as to TPP relies on, as you say sus polling. 4… Read more »
The debate around the Sri Lanka asylum seekers is beginning to spiral into Tampa territory with the Australian public ready to support tough action over compassion and prepared to believe the boats are harbouring terrorists.
For the PM it is a diabolical political dilemma, with this week’s Essential Report showing his attempts to play tough cop are failing to translate into public approval for his handling of the issue.
Given the bind, I reckon his only option is to follow the lead of his predecessor John Howard – not in sending in the troops, but by shifting debate through invoking the nation’s obsession with sport.
Continue reading "Most Australians want a tougher stand on boatpeople" »
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Immortal says:
I jst wana say australia has no balls Read more »
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Greg Barker says:
Fair go Government!!!! My Family & I are struggling to survive & meet our committments, I have suffered serious health issues for the past 12 years with having to have major surgery & long peiods off work. I have tried to access our Superannuation (which is also self funded) to… Read more »
It’s a political mystery worthy of Dan Brown. Why is it so difficult to find anyone who actually likes our most popular Prime Minister since Bob Hawke?
The PM is rightly grinning from ear to ear at the moment, on the back of his triumphant turn at the UN and the stream of figures showing the national economy has somehow managed to avoid falling into recession during the global downturn.
His job approval ratings are stratospheric. Nielsen polls regularly find his approval ratings at 70 per cent or higher, and this morning’s Newspoll finds around two-thirds of Australians say he’s their preferred Prime Minister.
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Jacquie Butterfield says:
To George 08:59am 06/10/09: Yep. Read more »
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FTR says:
Rudd and co are popular because they are media darlings. Where is Wrong for example? After months and months of self righteous lecturing about the ETS? Where is she? Why haven’t the media ripped into Wrong and Krudd for their total shambolic spending spree on all things carbon? Why not… Read more »
The Punch’s unscientific Punters Poll is broadly in line with most of the “scientific” research – the PM is broadly popular and people think he’s the smartest kid in the class.
That’s probably what happens when you beat the GFC, reorganise global diplomatic structures and can explain all it in Mandarin.
While no politician admits to reading polls, Kevin Rudd would be quietly satisfied with these findings – 58 per cent saying he has delivered on expectations, with strong support for his economic management.
Continue reading "Rudd needs to remind us why we elected him" »
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Aikon says:
I last voted Labor when Keating was elected. I though both he and Hawke were right for the country at that time. But never again. After witnessing the charade Rudd and his gang put before the Australian people during the last election campaign, with the seemingly full support of the… Read more »
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Keith says:
@ Michael, I voted Labor similarly, but in particular, the triumvirate of Howard, Ruddock and and Downer, and the eventual fall guy Reith, just to underline the politics of fear. Read more »
Old people never die – in fact they are feeling good and just want to keep voting conservative way into their second century.
Like the kids from Fame, Coalition voters want to live forever, long after they can remember their own name, laying down a unique challenge to policy makers on the Left.
These are the alarming findings from the Punch’s inaugural Death Survey, where we link attitudes to death with voting behaviour in an effort to drag the national political debate down to a new low.
Continue reading "Die Hard: How grey Australia keeps the Libs competitive" »
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jed says:
@Steven to propagate that myth you must work for the libs. libs and labor are both for big government - if you don’t work for them, i’m alarmed to see you’re so easily led. your description of the libs more aptly fits the LDP, i suggest you check them out Read more »
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acker says:
@ regina….Joe has go a nice smile, when it’s not smeared with some misdirected pie & sauce…...no fly’s on sloppy joe (when he’s in the shower of course Read more »
In the absence of a genuine contest in Canberra, serious political junkies are wondering what sort of team could give the Rudd Government a run for their money.
Today, we give readers a chance to put their own Cabinet in the House, with the launch of the Punch’s Federal Cabinet Fantasy League.
It’s simple. Assemble a Cabinet from Ministers who have taken the oath over the past 40 years, ensure your team comes under the $2 million super cap and get ready to Rumble the Ruddster.
Continue reading "Cabinet fantasy league: create your own ministry" »
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Bruno says:
Prime Minister: Peter Costello Deputy Prime Minister: Barnaby Joyce Treasurer: Steven Ciobo Foreign Affairs: Marise Payne Health: Tony Abbott Finance: Malcolm Turnbull Environment: Greg Hunt Education: Scott Morrison Defence: Stuart Robert Indigenous Affairs: Mal Brough Industrial Relations: Joe Hockey Attorney General: Julie Bishop Resources: Susan Ley Agriculture: Warren Truss Sport:… Read more »
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marcjohn says:
Prime Minister: Peter Costello Deputy Prime Minister: Barnaby Joyce Treasurer: Steven Ciobo Foreign Affairs: Marise Payne Health: Tony Abbott Finance: Malcolm Turnbull Environment: Greg Hunt Education: Scott Morrison Defence: Stuart Robert Indigenous Affairs: Mal Brough Industrial Relations: Joe Hockey Attorney General: Julie Bishop Resources: Susan Ley Wild Card: Tom Switzer Read more »
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