Middle East

Among the multiple emergency exits built into the mighty C130 Hercules is one in the forward half of the aeroplane helpfully surrounded with the words “danger” and “propeller” in huge red letters.

It invites an interesting dilemma in an idle passenger’s mind. How bad would things have to be in here, to make using that exit worth the risk? It is the kind of dark thinking that occurs as one stares blankly at the internally netted walls of the Herc’s cavernous fuselage.

This military transport is designed for function over comfort. The noise during flight into a mostly hostile Afghanistan is deafening. Literally. As well as full body armour, passengers wear earplugs and each is thus cocooned in a strangely solitary world of sound and thoughts.

Continue reading "A Herculean effort in Afghanistan" »

For the first time, Turkey’s Prime Minister Recip Tayipp Erdogan, has apologised for the killings of 14,000 people in Dersim - a town in south-eastern part of the country now known as Tunceli - between 1936 and 1939.

The apology came after a war of words between Erdogan and the leader of the main opposition party. Turkey has finally realised that it will not be able to end the Kurdish rebel war through military measures alone.

Why is this important? Well this is not Turkey’s only historical dilemma, and many will be wondering if this could be applied to other minorities.

Continue reading "Victims of one vile holocaust must recognise another" »

Imagine you spent hundreds of years dreaming about and then building your dream home in a promised land. Then imagine that this dream materialised into none other than the house of God on earth, a land flowing with milk and honey.

Now imagine there was a terrible tyrant who exiled you and your entire people from that land. After being in exile for 2000 years, a situation arose where it became possible for you to return.

As you see your beautiful home, which evokes a deep memory of your ancestor’s connection to a holy land, you notice that someone else lives there now. They have developed their own stories and connections to the land and its olive groves, rolling hills and pristine springs. What should you do?

Continue reading "A Zionist speaks out in support of Palestine" »

Why has the western media provided only a biased, incomplete view of what is going in Syria? Why have the steps taken by the Syrian government to answer the concerns raised by its citizens been ignored? 

I am not a Syrian government apologist (more on that later). I just want to read the whole story. If I can find a variety of news sources including the official statements made by government officials and pro-Syrian government supporters why can’t the BBC or ABC or any other well-resourced western media?

And I am not only talking about the bizarre twists in the Syrian conflict such as “Damascus Girl”. If you missed that one, a young Syrian lesbian blogger created an international outcry when she suddenly disappeared. The Syrian government was suspected of abducting and maybe even killing her. One of her great supporters – fellow lesbian blogger Lez Get Real was particularly upset.

Continue reading "Western media ‘disappeared’ half the Syrian story" »

In order for democracy to really take hold in the wake of the recent Arab Revolutions, the people of the region should be careful not to conform to Western ideas of democracy and instead develop their own model, one relevant to their own cultural norms and in tune with their own rich history of democracy.

The Arab Revolutions themselves give us insight into what this model might look like. Indeed, recent events are to be admired for the extent to which divergent voices have been heard, legitimate grievances have been aired, and women and minorities have been involved.

They are also to be admired because a balance has often been struck between the pragmatic and the ideal, between the secular and the religious, between the desire not just to oust failing tyrants but to replace them with something new, something that could respond to the varying needs of the citizens.

Continue reading "The Middle East should not adopt Western democracy" »

Three days ago we saw a reaffirmation of the long-standing strong relationship between Israel and the United States with the visit of the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu to Washington DC and his second speech to the Joint Session of Congress.

Australia counts both the Unites States and Israel as close friends and allies.

The Prime Minister’s speech to Congress could not come at a more critical time for the Middle East and for the world.

Continue reading "Netanyahu and the Middle East’s epic battle" »

The Presidents of Tunisia and Egypt have gone, the President of Yemen is going. The dictator of Libya has lost control of half of his country and is being bombed out of the other half.

But the revolutionary tidal wave of the Arab Spring has now come up against a tougher opponent – the 40-year-old dictatorship of the Assad family in Syria.

It’s clear that President Bashar al-Assad and his security forces have no intention of giving up power, and are now engaged in a violent and bloody crackdown on dissent.

Continue reading "Syria: the dictator fights back" »

The ‘world’s most wanted man’, Osama bin Laden is dead. For all the latest news, see www.news.com.au. For an analysis of what it means, here is what Matthew Gray, ANU expert in Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, had to say.

This is a symbolic victory, and there’s considerable satisfaction for those who wanted revenge. I’m not sure it’ll have that much operational or strategic impact on Al Qaeda, though.

Osama was not, as far as I can tell, doing much direct operational work or strategic stuff beyond setting vague directions as to where the Al Qaeda ‘brand name’ might go from here – Al Qaeda is now a set of like-minded groups in different parts of the world.

Continue reading "Bin Laden: Some questions answered, many remain" »

The situation in Libya is constantly changing. For the latest updates see news.com.au.

It is hard to agree with the Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd on many things these days, but his efforts to effect a no-fly zone over Libya three weeks ago struck a controversial, but important, note. A pity, then, that the usual international politics surrounding the Western alliance and the United Nations bogged down the process to the point that the rebels in Libya were on their last legs when the UN Security Council vote was taken on the matter.

Centre after centre of opposition were lost to Gaddafi’s reorganised forces, and his family-led offensives bit into what seemed like a promising revolutionary movement late last month.

The Colonel is a seasoned campaigner both within Libya itself, and in global politics. Ronald Reagan tried to take him out by a surprise missile attack on his palace in 1986. The missiles didn’t harm him, but were said to have killed an adopted daughter and some other members of his extended household. He reportedly took to spending his nights in shifting tents from then on, blending traditional culture (he was born in a tent) with forms of security which have been most effective.

Continue reading "Rudd was talking some sense on Gaddafi" »

What next in Libya? The initial demonstration of strength we saw yesterday is really just the beginning. (Follow live updates here.)

As US Defence Secretary Gates has rightly observed “a no-fly zone begins with an attack on Libya to destroy the air defences”. This underscores the inevitability of escalation for which a no-fly zone has set the scene, one way or another.

Even if Gaddafi, out of character, orders his aircraft or ground installations not to engage the foreign forces from here on, or they revolt out of fear or relief, that is not the end of it.

Continue reading "A necessary attack, now for the really tricky bit" »

For observers partial, impartial or militant, there is now a barometer for the turbulence in the Middle East. The Qatar-based news outlet Al Jazeera has set up an online tool to track Twitter updates from Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and Yemen.

But if you’re an aspiring insurgent worried that your movements are now more visible to the government you’re trying to topple, rest assured – social media will find a way.

When Libyan secret police monitored Facebook and Twitter, revolutionaries seeking to oust Muammar Gaddafi from power turned to a dating site called Madawi, assuming aliases from “Sweet Butterfly” to “Melody of Torture” and exchanging coded messages. Their missives, and their mission, are another entry in a series of social media-attributed uprisings that has already claimed the scalp of Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak.

Continue reading "When the medium becomes the message in the media" »

Most of us at some stage or another have received an invitation to a school reunion. Although I would hate to admit how long it has been since I left high school.

Even more sobering was an email I received inviting me to a reunion for the class of 1981 diplomatic cadets joining the Department of Foreign Affairs.

It is worth thinking about how much the world has turned on its head over the last 30 years.

Continue reading "The world has changed a lot, except the threat of violence" »

The internet is emerging as one of the big heroes of the pro-democracy, anti-despot movement in the Middle East.

It’s regarded as being right up there with that courageous Gaddafi impersonator who’s been suggesting absent members of the Libyan army are simply retreating to rest and relax.

Thanks to the cybersphere, Arabic members of generation TXT are using mobile phone cameras to film political violence and then uploading the footage online.

This, in turn, is leading to more civilian fury and more amateur surveillance.

Continue reading "The internet: From revolt to revolting trolls" »

Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd, visiting Egypt this week, tweeted that it was “inspiring standing in Tahrir Square with young people who stood up for democracy in Egypt”.

Mr Rudd’s sentiments are shared across the world. It’s very hard not to be inspired by the way in which the Egyptian people have claimed control of their own future. Just a month ago, even as pressure on Hosni Mubarak mounted, very few people would have predicted such a speedy and relatively smooth transition of power.

Certainly the Egyptian example has inspired similar uprisings against neighbouring dictators, most notably Colonel Muammar Gaddafi in Libya. However, those who expect a similarly speedy and successful resolution of the conflict in that country are likely to be shocked by what is about to unfold in Libya.

Continue reading "The UN must act to fill a Libyan power vacuum" »

So now the bastard bombs his own people to cling to power. But who didn’t already know that Libya’s Moamar Gaddafi was a terrorist and a despot?

The United States sure did.

US sanctions - and its toppling of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein - so terrified Gaddafi in 2003 that he surrendered his secret nuclear weapons program to avoid being America’s next target.

But what did the United Nations do about this man whose regime has sponsored terrorists, blown up a Pan Am jet over Lockerbie, bombed a Berlin disco, armed the IRA, looted Libya’s national wealth, rewarded Holocaust-deniers, jailed dissenters and ruled by fear since Gaddafi, a colonel, seized power in a coup more than 41 years go?

Continue reading "The West has let itself be bluffed by Gaddafi" »

First it was Tunisia’s leader, then Egypt’s. Now the protests in the Middle East seem to have spread to riots in Yemen, Bahrain, Libya and elsewhere, including to the point where the Libyan leader, Mu’amar Qadhafi, is close to being overthrown.

But how valid is the ‘domino theory’ of popular protest? Are we seeing the start of a region-wide collapse of leaders and regimes?

Probably not. One or two more leaders might go: Qadhafi is truly in trouble, as is Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh. However real revolutions are rare, and for good reasons.

Continue reading "Don’t expect the Middle East to fall like dominos" »

In the last few days we’ve seen that the rumours of the demise of the green movement in Iran have been greatly exaggerated.

With thousands taking to the streets with chants of ‘Mubarak, Bin Ali – It’s your turn Sayed Ali’, many are asking the question whether Iran be the next Egypt. The simple answer is no.

Iran isn’t the next Egypt. In fact, in a few months it’ll be more likely that Egypt will be the next Iran. To understand what I mean we have to go back a little more than three decades.

Continue reading "Tragically, Iran will not be the next Egypt" »

While all eyes have been on Egypt the past three weeks, across in the Arab world another country is going through massive transformations that have a major impact on Western support and influence in the region.

Lebanon is due to form its Hezbollah-backed government in the coming days. The group is officially listed by the United States, Israel and many other European countries as a terrorist group and the formation of such a government has been interpreted by these Western countries as a rise in Iranian influence, effectively hijacking the US-backed government and its influence in the region.

It is this naïve interpretation of events that could serve as a catalyst in sparking violent conflict within the region.

Continue reading "Lebanon is on a knife edge" »

Many people assume that the events in Egypt over the last 18 days are a simple case of ‘people power’ seeking to remove a drained, corrupt, unpopular president, who is desperately clinging to power. Certainly the renewed vigour and importance of the Arab ‘street’, and the power of the protests in Egypt and Tunisia, have been important.

But what is really happening is a three-way tussle over the future political and economic structure of Egypt.

The protesters in Tahrir Square – and now across many cities and large towns in Egypt – and Mubarak, are indeed two protagonists, and the most visible ones. In one sense, the protesters have already defeated Mubarak: he has agreed to step aside in September after elections for a successor, and to the extent that the protesters were trying to get rid of the president, they have (almost certainly) succeeded.

Continue reading "The army will ultimately triumph in Egypt" »

After weeks of protests against his reign, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was expected set to step down this morning. But while celebrations erupted in Tahrir Square, the people were quickly disappointed to learn through a pre-recorded speech that he intends to stay in power until the next election.

While he did announce some changes in how Egypt will be ruled, he is clearly intending to cling to power. The world’s jubilation that he was cowing to pressure was shortlived indeed.

For all the latest, including links to live feeds from Tahrir Square, Twitter feeds, picture galleries and background, head to news.com.au.

Continue reading "Mubarak has once again disappointed his people" »

The ABC’s London bureau was effectively in mourning when I arrived as a correspondent at the beginning of 1980.

Tony Joyce, a witty, talented and energetic reporter from the bureau, had been shot in the head in Zambia six weeks before.

The pistol bullet ricocheted inside his skull, and the unforgivable behaviour of the Zambian authorities meant that by the time he was medevacced to London, it was too late.

From November 1979 to early February 1980, he was in a coma. On February 3 - exactly 31 years ago - he died.

Continue reading "Danger in denial: Too soon to revel in Egypt’s revolution" »

So, rad times in the Middle East? In the bright light of this historic moment can we assert that the Bush Administration’s neo-cons were partially right: the Middle East was ripe for a series of popular revolutions?

If only they didn’t have to destroy a country, countless people, and potentially the prospect for better relationships between the West and the region in attempting to prove it.

The farcical aspect of popular demonstrations in the Middle East is that although Western Governments and observers have for years mused about the notional benefits of individual will being translated into national policy through some nice democratic practices, the instant any such thing becomes a remote possibility, westerners start getting anxious.

Continue reading "The West just thinks it knows best" »

Clad in his spectacular Bishop’s regalia, Greek Orthodox Bishop Ezekiel throws a cross in the water at the annual “Thefeonia” at Station Pier. This Greek “Festival of the Waters” is held at Port Melbourne in early January every year, where I’ve represented Federal Labor to the sometimes 5 to 6 thousand members of the Greek Australian community. 

Usually I’m there with an array of local State and Federal Greek Australian politicians, but, in my own mind, my presence is emblematic of the natural tolerance and pluralism of modern Australia.  All the politicians release doves and make brief speeches. 

At the “Thefeonia” this year it seemed appropriate that I briefly expressed the nation’s solidarity with another ancient Christian community, Australia’s Copts, who are approximately 80,000 strong across Australia four of whose churches, in Australia were amongst the sixty four listed worldwide as targets by an Al Qaeda website.

Continue reading "Christians under attack in the Middle East and Australia" »

One can’t help but compare the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks to that of a cat with nine lives.

They seem to die over and over again with no resolution, but how long until their luck runs out, the blood boils over and the Gaza region breaks out in all out war.

Since the establishment of the state of Israel, crisis points have come and gone and the populations of Jewish and Palestinian peoples have found no peace. Unfortunately this time will be no different.

Continue reading "Netanyahu standing in the way of his own peace" »

The simplest possible outcome of the investigations into Israel’s deadly raid on an aid convoy would be failure to prove any of the Palestinian activists on board had links to terrorist networks or other violent radicals. At least it would make an open-and-shut case that Israel used disproportionate force by sending commandos onto the flotilla - but the early indications are this finding is unlikely.

If Israel can establish, as its officials have suggested, there were weapons on the convoy or that some of the activists had links to terrorists then it will be immediately able to throw a cloak of legitimacy around the operation, in which nine people were killed and one Australian was shot in the leg.

The international Palestinian activist movement must recognise the political risk of fraternising with extremists. If it turns out some unsavoury characters or cargo were on board, we are back to the familiar Middle East merry-go-round of blame.

Continue reading "Israel: How to test friends and radicalise people" »

Australia-Israeli relations have not come under this much pressure since the bungling spook and lothario Amir Laty was thrown out of Canberra in 2003.

Faking Australian passports is arguably a more serious offence than trying (mostly unsuccessfully) to seduce female officials and cultivating the daughter of then Attorney General Philip Ruddock. That is what Laty did before he got his marching orders.

In Canberra’s leafy diplomatic neighbourhood of Yarralumla yesterday a senior Israeli diplomat, who is almost certainly a spy, was told to pack his or her bags for Tel Aviv.

Continue reading "Oz-Israel relations hit new low as Canberra expels spy" »

In the latest development in the fake passport controversy, Britain has expelled a senior Israeli diplomat and demanded a public assurance that Israel will not misuse British passports again.

This is in response to Israel’s Mossad spy agency allegedly killing a Hamas leader in Dubai in January, with the assassination team using forged foreign passports, including at least three from Australia.

However, you don’t have to be a chest thumping, Alexander Downer-like armchair warrior who relishes assassination to realise that western countries, including Australia, are overreacting.

Continue reading "Let’s not overreact to Mossad’s hit on a terrorist" »

To the casual observer the Israeli embassy in Canberra looks like any other diplomatic mission in the leafy suburbs of Deakin and Yarralumla. Appearances can be deceiving.

The inside of Israel’s chancery building is more like a mini-fortress than the well-to-do family home visible from the street. Visitors are treated with all the caution you would expect from the world’s most suspicious and fearful regime whose enemies are everywhere, even quiet and peaceful Canberra.

There are no friendly receptionists offering cups of tea and visitors are greeted by lean looking men with crew cuts and bulges under their arms, ear pieces permanently in place. There are no smiles, no small talk, just searches, scans and an array of CCTV cameras.

Continue reading "Behind the no-nonsense world of Israeli security" »

There’s a story, though it may be apocryphal, about Henry Kissinger and the Chinese leader Zhou EnLai.

Kissinger was in Beijing preparing the ground for what was to become the historic rapprochement between the US and China, and one afternoon, while strolling in the garden,  he asked the Premier what he thought were the historical consequences of the French Revolution.

“It’s too soon to tell”, was the septuagenarian Zhou’s reply. It’s not a bad joke, but like a lot of good jokes there’s something in it.

Continue reading "A democratic future for Iran? It’s too soon to tell" »

The images we’ve been seeing of rioting and bloodshed in Tehran take me back almost three decades, to the northern spring of 1980, and the weeks of living dangerously in what was then still a revolutionary situation in Iran.

It was May the first of 1980 when I learned that my translator had been murdered. His name was Bahram Dehqani-Tafti. He was a poet in his mid twenties, a graduate in Politics, Philosophy and Economics from Oxford, bilingual from birth because his mother was English and his father was the Anglican bishop of Esfahan.

Bahram himself showed no signs of following in his father’s footsteps; he was a secular, literary, somewhat westernised character, and I am often reminded of him by the cosmopolitan, western-oriented youth who blog in such numbers from Iran today.

Continue reading "Iranian bloodshed harks back to an earlier atrocity" »

Follow this person on twitter right now: http://twitter.com/Change_for_Iran

He or she is an unknown Iranian student who is giving a live first-hand account via twitter of the repression that is unfolding at the University of Tehran. Despite the attempts by the Iranian regime to disable facebook and twitter this student has sent 34 tweets so far in the past five hours.

“I’m dizzy but ok. some people are getting shelter in the nearby unfinished bank building. police arresting a middle aged man.” - two hours ago.

“my eyes are burning hard to keep them open #iranelection” - two hours ago

Continue reading "My eyes are burning: gassed Iranian student’s twitter feed" »