Liberal Leadership

Hardline conservative Christians helped orchestrate the flood of correspondence that convinced Liberal MPs to ditch support for Malcolm Turnbull and the emissions trading scheme.

One site that published repeated calls for direct lobbying of politicians was Catch the Fire Ministries, a church whose pastor earlier this year said the Black Saturday bushfires were divine vengeance for liberal abortion laws.

It has also emerged that Cory Bernardi, one of the Liberal senators who led the revolt against Turnbull, called on supporters in late November to wage an email campaign to persuade his colleagues in the Senate that the public was outraged at the ETS. His email was published and endorsed by a website popular with fringe conspiracy theorists.

Continue reading "The holy war on climate change" »

GetUp’s latest poll has found the public are hoping Tony Abbott will take the party down a progressive path.

It’s a big year for the Liberal Party of Australia. One hundred years ago, the Protectionist and Free Trade parties combined to offer voters an alternative to the Labor party.

Oppositions can be great force within our democracy. They can be the drivers of accountability and transparency, of new thinking and ambitious policy. And in a democracy where our major parties fight over just a small subset of the population (swinging voters), their power in influencing the Government of the day is certainly present.

Continue reading "Abbott’s challenge now is to renew the Liberal Party" »

When Tony Abbott snatched the leadership of the Liberal Party last week some commentators were quick to liken the sharp-tongued Member for Waringah to the former Member for Werriwa Mark Latham.

But with his blistering online attack on his own party and leader this morning Malcolm Turnbull looks to be the one headed for the remote compound with an electric fence.

While a shadow minister, Tony Abbott was never afraid of speaking bluntly in a manner that was at odds with Coalition policy. So as I am a humble backbencher I am sure he won’t complain if I tell a few home truths about the farce that the Coalition’s policy, or lack of policy, on climate change has descended into.

The usually articulate and verbose Mr Turnbull went on to describe Mr Abbott’s claim you can cut emissions without an ETS as “bullshit.” I think he’s blown a gasket.

Continue reading "What next - the Turnbull Diaries?" »

Update: The first Newspoll following Tony Abbott taking the Liberal leadership this morning shows the Opposition’s primary vote rising by 4 per cent to 38 per cent, with Tony Abbott’s preferred Prime Minister rating at 23 per cent. Kevin Rudd preferred PM support has dropped 5 points to 60 per cent with Labor still holding a 56-44 lead in the two party preferred vote.

While the weekend’s by-elections in Higgins and Bradfield were undoubtedly a good result for the Liberal Party, it’s hard to draw any other conclusion from them other than to say Liberals can still be elected in safe Liberal seats. 

It might be tempting for Liberals opposed to the ETS to argue that it puts paid to the claim the Government claims that Australians have an overwhelming desire for the introduction of the scheme, but being returned in safe seats formally occupied by the Treasurer and former opposition leader with no Labor candidate contesting isn’t exactly a litmus test on the national vibe.

Despite a swing of less than 1 per cent swing against her the new member of Higgins Kelly O’Dwyer wasn’t about to claim as much either when The Punch asked whether it was an endorsement of Tony’s Abbott’s stance.

Continue reading "What do we learn from the Liberal wins? Not much" »

There has been a lot of giddiness and hoopla surrounding the use of Twitter by journalists to cover the leadership ructions in the Liberal Party this past fortnight. It certainly made for high-energy reading – with its rawness and immediacy, it made the readers feel as if they were there as journalists passed on factoids from the mayhem and provided links to news and analysis of running events.

The downside of course was that it also gave tweeting journalists the ability to be 100 per cent wrong in real time – and I include myself among their number – where rumour and conjecture was shot into cyberspace, sending frantic packs of gallery journalists sprinting down corridors searching for a reputed Julie Bishop press conference, to find nothing but a Coke machine.

This real-time dissemination of both fact and fiction is an issue for the political parties head of next year’s election, where any degree of tail-chasing undermines their desire for a stage-managed and risk-averse passage through the campaign.

Continue reading "Web women unleash cyber hell on Holy Tony" »

As NSW Labor once again bury and dig up another leader in their pet cemetery of a cabinet to lead its army of walking dead, we see that Malcolm Turnbull has begun a bit of haunting of his own.

Yesterday’s cracking yarn by Annabel Crabb revealing angry emails sent by Malcolm Turnbull to Julie Bishop, accusing the deputy opposition leader of being hypocritical in her support for Tony Abbott, is evidence of the dangers of having an angry Malcolm Turnbull on the backbench. Combined with blogs and newsletters arguing that Abbott’s stand on the ETS is unworkable, one gets the feeling that Malcolm Turnbull could be dropping political cluster bombs from the backbench for a while yet.

So here’s a proposal that some NSW Liberals are seriously beginning to talk about: make Malcolm Turnbull the next Liberal Premier of NSW.

Continue reading "Cut the crap and make Malcolm the NSW Premier" »

Kevin Rudd will give Tony Abbott one last chance to vote for an emissions trading scheme or face a possible snap election in March/April.

Acting Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, has announced that the Government will recommit its defeated emissions trading scheme bills on February, 2, the first sitting day of 2010.
``It will come to the Parliament in February, we will seek passage of the bill, all options are on the table as to what will happen next,’’ she said.

The bills went down yesterday after a marathon 50 hour Senate debate. Two Liberal senators crossed the floor but the eleven bills still were defeated 33 to 41.
Labor’s strategy now, while not immediately obvious, is cleverly crafted to trap the freshly minted Mr Abbott between the devil and the deep blue sea.

Continue reading "Labor’s plan to let Abbott sweat it out over summer" »

What happened in the Liberal party room on Tuesday morning was above politics.  I’m hoping it was the start of a revolution, a signal that a large number of downtrodden, forgotten Australians are about to stand up and be heard. 

I’m talking about wing-nuts.  Tony Abbott is a wing-nut.  So am I.

Our ears are unique.  They come out of heads at a rather extreme angle.  If we’re not wearing budgie smugglers, our ears are the first thing that people look at when they look at us.

Continue reading "Abbott’s ascendancy a win for all people with big ears" »

Maybe it’s Tony Abbott’s own fault, and maybe he thinks it’s fantastic, but I’m a bit creeped out by the amount of attention being paid to the new Opposition Leader’s, um, assets.

Log on to any blog or social networking site in the past 36 hours and you’re likely to find as much in-depth analysis of Mr Abbott’s physical characteristics as his policy range. And I’m not talking about the size and shape of his ears.

While this might be a great boost to The Punch’s Question Time Live coverage - bring on the influx of stay-at-home-mums tuning into APAC at 2pm on sitting days - can you imagine what would happen if the same conversations were taking place about Julia Gillard?

Continue reading "Phwoar!!! Tony Abbott’s the full package. Wink wink." »

Malcolm Turnbull has left no-one in any doubt as to what he thinks about today’s defeat of the ETS with a blog entry on his website saying the Liberals have damaged the national interest - and themselves - by blocking the legislation.

It is a civil piece of writing, and in keeping with the position he doggedly stuck to this past week. But it has caught the attention of his party, which fears that Turnbull is so passionate about this issue that he could position himself as a booming voice of dissent from the backbench, keeeping the Liberals distracted and divided ahead of a poll fought over the ETS.

“Today the Senate rejected, for the second time, the Government’s emissions trading scheme legislation,” his entry began. “This is a very disappointing result, contrary to the national interest and the interest of the Liberal Party.”

Continue reading "Turnbull’s blog entry shows he won’t go quietly" »

There were lots of memorable lines in Tony Abbott’s first press conference as Liberal leader yesterday but there was one you can expect to hear repeatedly ahead of the next election, whenever that might be.

``Each and every interest rate rise over the next 12 months is due to the irresponsible spending spree of the Rudd government,’’ he said.

There you have it. Kevin Rudd is going to be made to own each and every 25 basis point rise in interest rates between now and the next election - including the latest one yesterday.

Continue reading "Here comes Tony" »

The Liberal Party’s 42 to 41 vote to strip the Opposition leadership from Malcolm Turnbull and hand it to Tony Abbott was a split decision in more ways than one.

The Liberal Party is now so badly divided that a distinct possibility exists that a group - possibly led by Malcolm Turnbull - will leave to establish their own party.

A split party is the price that is sometimes paid when ideology prevails over moderate, pragmatic politics - just ask anyone who was in the Labor Party during the 20th century.

Continue reading "Splitsville: could a new party result from Abbott’s purge?" »

She’s nothing if not loyal to the incumbent. Julie Bishop has just stood at the podium in the Liberal party room, just at the left shoulder of her third leader in two years. And she hasn’t just done with a straight face, she’s positively nailed it.

First she declared her absolutely loyalty to Brendan Nelson. When he was knocked off by Malcolm Turnbull Ms Bishop was again smoothly articulate in her declarations of support - and today, there she was again as Tony Abbott made his pitch for the next election. Deputies aren’t usually so resilient.

But Ms Bishop says she’s redefined the role of deputy leader of the Liberal Party, saying it’s not her job to angle for he boss’s downfall.

Continue reading "Is Julie Bishop the ultimate Stepford Deputy?" »

THE Labor Party is making a serious miscalculation if it tries to write off Tony Abbott as the Mad Monk, the Pope’s man in Canberra, a profanity-spouting bovver boy who is so socially conservative as to be unelectable.

It will also have to be careful not to attack him as the captive of lunatic elements over climate change. While there are undoubtedly plenty of nutty conspiracy theorists in the climate skeptic camp, there are also many thousands of well-adjusted but anxious Australians who simply do not believe that the Rudd Government has explained the need for such swift and dramatic action on climate change, especially when other bigger nations are doing nothing.

Tony Abbott’s victory in the Party Room is a microcosm of his potential electoral appeal at the national level. As Joe Hockey found out the hard way, you have to stand for something in politics.

Continue reading "Tony Abbott: I’ll slug it out" »

The emergence of Tony Abbott as Opposition leader is a major surprise. Many will assume it means a lurch to the right of the political spectrum.

This may be true. Only time will tell.

Clearly, the first impact, the likely defeat of the Government’s emissions trading scheme, looks to be a clear sign of that move.

Continue reading "Abbott vs Rudd, now this is what I call a choice" »

In 2007, members of the Federal Parliamentary Liberal and National Parties tried to convince themselves that the polls were wrong.

Despite months of poor polling, we clung to a belief that we would succeed at the election.

There was a disconnect between the polls and the ‘feeling’ in the electorate, members would proclaim.

Continue reading "Here is what Opposition is all about people" »

In order to help people better understand the last week, an anonymous Liberal front bencher has made available excerpts of their private diary to comedians Matt Kenneally Toby Halligan for The Punch. This time we can reveal who voted “no” in the final leadership ballot.

MONDAY MORNING 30/11/09

Dreamed of Hawaii. Woke up in Canberra. Nightmare.

Still, happy – drama is over. Hockey almost leader.

Have Senate duty. Will be okay, have Dan Brown novel(s).

Continue reading "Secret diary of a Liberal MP Part II: Who voted “no”" »

The leadership of the Liberal Party will be decided today in Canberra. Punch editors will be posting news, commentary, pics and video as they come to hand here throughout the day. Times are AEDT. Refresh this page for updates.

5.29pm: David Speers of Sky News shares his thoughts in a blog post titled “The Abbott experiment”.

Joe Hockey isn’t rushing to the backbench so fast. He’s talking to Tony Abbott about whether he will stay as Shadow Treasurer. If he does, it will be difficult to show any unity on emissions trading.

In many ways this result may be a blessing in disguise for Joe Hockey. He’s still in the leadership mix, should Tony Abbott implode.

More here.

5.12pm: Bob Hawke, always worth quoting. Here’s what he said today, from AAP:

“I couldn’t have written a better script myself if I sat down and thought about it for, you know, months,” Mr Hawke told reporters.

“Seriously, I don’t want to gloat in the misfortunes of the opposition `cause I think it’s important in a democracy to have a reasonable and functioning opposition.

“They were making such a bloody mess of it I hope genuinely, to some extent, they get their act together.”

Asked what kind of leader Mr Abbott would make, Mr Hawke replied in one word: “temporary”.

4.39pm: More international coverage from the Wall Street Journal (Abbott could push Australia to the right) and Reuters (‘Mad monk’ Australia opposition head to fight CO2 laws).

4.38pm: Barnaby Joyce on Tony Abbott: “We’re looking at a person of immense capabilities here and now it’s a case of keeping the show together and give the Australian people a clear alternative to (Prime Minister Kevin) Rudd’s massive new tax.”

4.30 pm: Tony Abbot has told Channel 9 that he can’t guarantee that every senator “will do the right thing” when asked whether senators will cross the floor.

4.27pm: Julie Bishop says on Sky News she voted for Malcolm Turnbull in both leadership votes today.

4.19pm: What the nation is tweeting about this afternoon. From trendsmap.com

2.59pm: International reporting of the Liberal leadership change… Bloomberg reports:

Abbott, a former amateur boxer who trained as a priest, defeated ex-Goldman Sachs Group Inc. executive Malcolm Turnbull by 42 votes to 41 in a leadership ballot, party officials said in Canberra today. The contest capped a week of infighting after Turnbull’s support for Prime Minister Kevin Rudd emissions- trading plan split the opposition coalition.

And uses this quote:

“The public are absolutely appalled at the way in which the Liberals have conducted themselves,” said Nick Economou, a politics professor at Monash University in Melbourne. “They now have a leader who really polarizes the community. I cannot see how the coalition will win the next federal election.”

More from Bloomberg here.

Also reports from the BBC and the Wall Street Journal and AFP.

2.50pm: The Greens say they expect a vote on the ETS by the end of today in the Senate. “I don’t expect the government is going to filibuster, so I would think we’re heading for some determination later today,” Bob Brown told reporters in Canberra.

2pm: Abbott confirms end to flirting with Julia Gillard

1.54pm: ABC election analyst Anthony Green explains the possible election scenarios here.

1.18pm: New commentary now on The Punch ... David Penberthy on Tony Abbott, Tory Maguire on Julie Bishop, the Stepford deputy, Mark Kenny on implications for Labor, and Kevin Andrews on the role of the opposition.

Plus - we have a present for Tony Abbott: A pair of boardshorts. Worth 3 points in the polls, surely.

Continue reading "Live blog: Liberal leadership showdown in Canberra" »

Joe Hockey is about to make the biggest decision of his life.

It’s a decision which goes to the core of his very being. His reputation for decency. His determination to be remembered not as a clever politician who knew how to get ahead, but a person who entered public life to make a contribution to the greater good.

It’s a decision which also involves one of his best friends – Malcolm Turnbull, who today cast the moral dimensions of the dilemma facing his mate of 20 years as he decides whether to run for the Liberal Party leadership. “Joe and I are very good friends as you know,” Turnbull said. “We talk a lot, we have very similar views on most issues, our families are very close, he is a good man.”

Continue reading "Hockey’s choice is between personal and party loyalty" »

If Joe Hockey wins the leadership of the federal Liberal Party, the biggest loser will not be Malcolm Turnbull.

Nor will it be the government’s Emissions Trading Scheme.

It will be five-week-old Ignatius Theodore Babbage-Hockey.

Continue reading "Work life balance could be Joe’s greatest battle" »

While today the Liberal MPs are faced with a choice over whether or not they will allow the Government’s emissions trading bill through Parliament, they are faced with a more fundamental choice over the ideological direction the party now chooses to take. Given the unpredicatable nature of the last few days you’d have to be pretty brave to write (or right) off Malcolm Turnbull completely, but the leadership now seems to be a two horse race between Joe Hockey and Tony Abbott.

In choosing Tony Abbott as leader the party returns to a true Conservative party of the right making a clear demarcation from the moderate direction of Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership. Following the disastrous fallout from Utegate in August, Punch editor David Penberthy argued that it was Abbott’s conservative conviction politics that might actually be a bonus for Liberal Party as the next leader, pointing out that Australians are more likely to vote for somebody who they know stands for something.

At the time I argued that Joe Hockey was clearly the only choice for the role given that he was a unifying force between moderates and the right, and who’s avuncular and “average Joe” family man persona could be equally popular with the Australian people who aren’t ready to turn once again to Howard era conservatism. Importantly I argued, and still do, that even though Joe Hockey is very unlikely to win the next election for the Liberal Party he could limit damage while Tony Abbott could make the result worse. 

Here and here both pieces are republished debating the pros and cons of Abbott or Hockey becoming the new Liberal leader. What do you think?

In order to help people better understand the last week, an anonymous Liberal front bencher has made available excerpts of their private diary to comedians Matt Kenneally Toby Halligan.

MONDAY 23/11/09 MORNING

Booked holiday flights to Hawaii for Friday evening.

ETS bill before senate tomorrow. Still don’t understand it.

Air conditioning was playing up. Stood in front of fridge for a while and felt better.

Continue reading "Secret diary extracts of a confused Liberal MP" »

After a week when the Liberals took decisive action to reduce their political footprint Joe Hockey is sitting snugly between ‘Someone Else’ and ‘Don’t Know’ as the preferred Liberal leader.

If politics really is Hollywood for ugly people, then this week’s Essential Report shows Joe is about to slip on the political swimsuit and start strutting his stuff by default.

The polling confirms what we all supected – the nation is over Malcolm Turnbull, it can’t abide Tony Abbott and it doesn’t really know who Julie Bishop or Andrew Robb are. As for Kevin Andrews, like his own party, we didn’t bother to ask. This leaves just three credible options for the Liberals: Don’t Know, Someone Else and Joe Hockey.

Continue reading "The only beauty contest that Joe Hockey will ever win" »

The next 24 hours are critical for the bitterly divided Liberal Party. The Punch’s Tory Maguire is in Canberra and the team will be posting updates here through the day. Times are AEDT. Refresh this page for updates.

7.21pm: If he is elected as leader tomorrow, Abbott will ask for the ETS to be deferred, and if not deferred, rejected. “The party has a clear choice. It can vote for Malcolm and we will support the legislation. It can vote for me and we will reject the legislation. Or they can vote for Joe and we’ll have a conscience vote”.

7.19pm: Tony Abbott says he’s spent most of the day in discussions with Joe, says…

“It now seems pretty clear we could change the leader to Joe and these offensive bills could still go through the parliament. I will be a candidate for the leadership tomorrow.”

7.17pm: Ian “Macca” Macfarlane says he’s in the dark - “they’re not telling me anything”

7pm: Nick Minchin has just released this statement:

Speculation tonight by Laurie Oakes on Channel 9 news that I support the proposition that Labor’s CPRS Bill pass through the Senate upon a change of leadership are inaccurate. I continue to support the proposition that the Bill should be referred to a Senate Inquiry, to report back after the Copenhagen conference.

6.35pm: ABC news reporting the deal to install Hockey as leader includes Liberal Senators being allowed a conscience vote on the ETS, meaning it would pass. But David Speers at Sky says it’s being discussed, no decision yet.

6.10pm: Nine’s Laurie Oakes says there’s mutterings Nick Minchin may agree to pass the ETS tomorrow once Turnbull is gone as leader.

5.52am: Back in the Senate - 70 amendments done, only 140 to go. By the time it’s complete Parliament House could have ocean views.

5.45pm: Now reported Family First Senator Steve Fielding is in Joe Hockey’s office with Mr Hockey, Nick Minchin and Peter Dutton - discussing the Royal Commission? Probably not.

4:59pm: AAP reports key figures from the left and right are meeting to sort things out before tomorrow’s meeting. Meeting in Joe Hockey’s office reportedly includes: Federal Liberal Party director Brian Loughnane, and MPs Greg Hunt, Christopher Pyne, Andrew Robb, Nick Minchin, Julie Bishop, Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton.

4.49pm: Bronwyn Bishop writes for The Punch: Malcolm, we want the leadership back please.

4.40pm: Audio of Turnbull’s press conference live now, courtesy of Sky News. Listen here.

3.49pm: Reports on Turnbull’s doorstop at The Australian, The Age, and The Daily Telegraph. From Malcolm Farr at the Tele:

Mr Turnbull was careful in how he explained the outcome of his leadership meeting with Mr Hockey this afternoon.

He said: “He (Mr Hockey) said he would support me in the spill movement. He said he would vote against the spill.”

3.46pm: Steve Fielding walked into the media scrum immediately after Turnbull had finished speaking and called for a Royal Commission into climate science. Seriously.

3.37pm: Recap: Turnbull says Hockey has assured him of his support in a vote on a leadership spill in the partyroom tomorrow morning. If the partyroom votes to declare the leadership vacant, then Turnbull says he will stand for re-election. It is still unclear if Hockey will run against Turnbull but he is widely expected to.

A strong line of argument Hockey could use is that with Turnbull’s leadership doomed, it is Hockey’s duty as a committed moderate to run against right-winger Tony Abbott.

3.36pm: From Turnbull:

Joe came to see me for a chat.

We actually had a meeting on the weekend that didn’t make it into the press because neither of us rang up a journalist beforehand.

Joe and I are very good friends.

Continue reading "As it happened: the Liberal Party’s mad Monday" »

A roundup of key coverage from this morning’s newspapers and websites is over the jump.

Continue reading "Reading roundup: Liberal leadership showdown" »

IT is almost two months to the day since Malcolm Turnbull defiantly proclaimed he could not lead a party that failed to act on climate change.

It could well be his epitaph because it looks increasingly likely they will be his famous last words. His war-like comments in a radio interview on October 1 will come back to haunt him tomorrow when a leadership challenge is expected to try to finally resolve the Liberal Party’s internal angst and division over the Emissions Trading Scheme.

Aside from internal manoeuvrings and mutinous rumblings within the party, the Liberals have a bigger problem. They are sending mixed signals to the electorate about where they stand on climate change and this is worse than death by a thousand swords for a party hoping to win Government at the next election.

Continue reading "Confusion reigns online over ETS and the Liberal Party" »

With the Liberal Party’s rolling leadership crisis set to be resolved one way or another on Tuesday, the Sunday talk shows could have been twice their usual length this week but the hours of analysis would never be able to say as much as this photograph in the morning papers.

As The Sunday Telegraph reported, Joe Hockey went to considerable lengths to avoid being placed at John Howard’s Sydney home, circling the suburbs of North Sydney and pausing in his car before going inside. Also in the paper was a Galaxy poll showing Hockey and Turnbull neck-and-neck as preferred Liberal leaders by a considerable margin over Tony Abbott, but it also found widespread public opposition to the immediate passage of the ETS (you can see it here as a PDF).

But from the morning talk shows, two key points. First, the relationship between Hockey and Turnbull is now pivotal. And second, what happens on Tuesday’s remains anyone’s guess.

Continue reading "Libs in crisis: Sunday talk shows round-up" »

THERE is a hilarious moment in the Hitchhikers’s Guide to the Galaxy when it is explained to one of the last remaining humans, Arthur Dent, that things are not what they seemed.

Shattering his life-long assumptions following the Earth’s destruction - that’s intergalactic progress - a higher being explains to the hapless Dent, that all those white mice in labs that humans thought were part of various experiments, were in fact, conducting an experiment on us. Humans were not as wise as they thought and now, their planet had been obliterated to make way for a hyperspace bypass.

I thought of this on two counts in recent days. First, there is the parallel with what Malcolm Turnbull, has been telling his troops: do nothing about climate change and the Earth as we know, will be destroyed.

Continue reading "Libs adrift in a hostile galaxy" »

Australians expect their political leaders and their political parties to take effective action on climate change because it is an important issue for them and their children.

The Opposition has always had significant concerns with the Rudd Government’s CPRS legislation. That is why we fought for changes to the proposed scheme, to improve its design and protect Australian jobs.

As a result of the changes secured by the Opposition, tens of thousands of Australian jobs have been saved, farmers have been protected by permanently excluding agriculture from the scheme, $1.1 billion in direct support to small and medium businesses will be delivered, and the threat of blackouts and interruptions to the electricity supply has been removed.

Continue reading "Climate debate a turning point in Liberal Party history" »

Bizarrely enough I just bumped into Malcolm Turnbull. And despite the chaos unfolding around him, he looked relaxed and happy. Asked if it was all over, he said: “No, far from it.”

The Opposition Leader was lunching at Tabou, a terrific French restaurant in Surry Hills, Sydney, honouring a long-standing date with a bunch of senior journalists from The Australian. I was grabbing a quick bite with a mate and bumped into the Opposition Leader at the top of the stairs. He was scathing in his assessment of the Right’s tactics over the CPRS.

“What they have done is like political terrorism. They have basically tried to blow up the party,” he said.

Continue reading "Relaxed and at lunch, Turnbull says he’ll survive" »

The battle for the leadership of the Liberal Party is now looking more like a contest for a high school SRC as Joe Hockey turns to social media to ask people what he should do over the ETS - and by default, whether he should shaft Malcolm Turnbull. He also wrote on Twitter today: “Hey team re The ETS. Give me your views please on the policy and political debate. I really want your feedback.”

Social media tragics will hail this as a ground-breaking moment in participatory democracy. Others - I’d call them “almost everybody”  - will just shake their heads in disbelief that the alternative government of Australia has been reduced to tweeting the punters for help as its most senior members become paralysed by panic, opportunism and expediency.

A quick stocktake of where things are at with the leadership:

Continue reading "Joe’s Facebook folly makes Libs look like bigger Twits" »

The honour of being elected as a member of the Federal Parliament carries with it very serious responsibilities.  Each of us are charged with seeking to do what is right, to listen to the views of our constituents, to represent the political parties that endorsed us, and ultimately determine what is in the nation’s interest. 

My decision to resign from the Shadow Ministry yesterday is one I did not take lightly. I felt compelled to do so because I reached the conclusion that it is not in Australia’s interests to support Labor’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). 

This is a position which was only strengthened by the fact that there was a clear majority in the Coalition Party Room in favour of voting against this legislation, despite what our leader concluded.

Continue reading "Why I quit shadow ministry and won’t back Labor’s ETS" »

THE so-called “Turnbull experiment”, which many Liberals entered into only reluctantly when Brendan Nelson imploded, is over.

The party that briefly departed from the divisive politics of John Howard, now looks to be lurching back to the right. This is a classic sucker move induced by the success of the centrist Kevin Rudd phenomenon.

There, on the right, it will find ideological purity but little or no scope for electoral success. The federal Liberal Party has just adopted a recipe for failure so popular in numerous state-based Liberal oppositions who are similarly unelectable.

Continue reading "Turnbull experiment is over - are the Libs over too?" »

7.32pm: Tomorrow will be another huge day in Canberra, with Malcolm Turnbull clinging frantically to his position and the Government desperate to get the CPRS through the Senate before Kevin Rudd meets with US President Barack Obama early next week. We’ll be continuing our coverage of this extraordinary political story in the morning. For in-depth news coverage tonight got to The Australian.

7.30pm: Government Leader in the House Anthony Albanese says that under an agreement made with Malcolm Turnbull the CPRS will be voted on by 3.45pm tomorrow. There will not be a motion to move a guillotine of the debate tonight.

7.10pm: Malcolm Turnbull is standing firm. He has just told a press conference “this is about the future of our planet and the future of our children, and their children… this is about risk management… saying we’re not going to do anything about climate change is irresponsible.” He said the CPRS had the support of the “overwhelming majority” of the Coalition partyroom. “Most people who doubt the science also know that it makes sense to take out insurance… I believe we must maintain this course of action… I am committed to it, we must be a party committed to action on climate change.”

Continue reading "Live blog: The Malcolm Bligh Turnbull mutiny" »

Update 5.15pm: Tony Abbott has just held a press conference where he said he and Nick Minchin have told Malcolm Turnbull the CPRS Bill should be delayed until next year. “Malcolm was unprepared to reconsider,” Mr Abbott said. He then confirmed he would quit the shadow cabinet. “This is a very difficult decision for me.” He also said: “This isn’t a leadership issue at all, it is a policy issue.” He refused to confirm or deny there have been any discussions about a leadership challenge with his colleagues. “I don’t know what might happen in the next few days.”

Speculation is rife Tony Abbott is considering quitting the front bench in the next 24 hours, and could be preparing to make a tilt at knocking off Malcolm Turnbull from his precarious leadership perch.

What this would achieve for the Liberals, or for voters, is very unclear. While the Coalition generally only thrives under a conservative leader, it’s impossible to see how that would happen under Abbott.

Continue reading "What is he thinking?" »

The Liberals are currently staggering around the corridors in Parliament House like a bomb has gone off. In political terms it kind of has. The past 36 hours has smashed Malcolm Turnbull’s authority, failed to produce a viable alternative candidate for the leadership, transformed manageable differences of opinion into bitter personal hatreds, left the frontbench a mess with three resignations already and possibly more to come, not to mention a looming reshuffle just to add further fire to an already incendiary situation.

Liberal MPs are openly talking about their sadness at the way the whole thing crashed around their ears. They are worried about their seats and had wanted one of two things to happen - to achieve a quiet consensus on a CPRS deal and to quietly pass the legislation, or for the talks with the Rudd Government to fail and to vote against it. Instead they have got open internal warfare.

Their biggest fear is how it will play out with traditional Liberal Party voters who cannot fathom the logic of what the party has done in embracing a lose-lose situation, whereby people who believe in climate change will give full credit to the Government for introducing a CPRS, while people who do not believe in climate change will punish the Opposition for backing it.

Continue reading "Grass roots revolt the biggest fear for battered Libs" »

Last night Malcolm Turnbull announced his party’s support for the ETS bill with the resigned cheerfulness of a man who knows his days are numbered.

He looked more like a defeated leader at the end of a campaign thanking his supporters than someone who had just prevailed over the Opposition old guard.

It was a pyrrhic victory and nothing he said could disguise that fact.

Continue reading "Malcolm Turnbull: ideology’s latest victim" »

Malcolm Turnbull has retained his position as leader of the Liberal Party after winning a secret ballot on a motion to spill the leadership by 48-35. Punch editors will be posting the latest developments, commentary, pictures and video here as they come to hand. Times are AEDT. Refresh this page for updates.

4pm: Question Time over, the Libs limped their way through it the poor sods, they looked like a footy team that had just got thumped in the GF. Read our coverage of the day unfolded below. I will post a new piece later today wrapping up Turnbull’s two days of hell, and his future from here.

1.55pm: Time for Question Time. The Punch will be covering it live here - join in, should be fun.

1.50pm: Battered Libs limping their way towards chamber for QT. One MP just told me this is their equivalent of DLP split. Total and unabiding fury between the two camps. MPs also talking up hockey as best consensus candidate for leadership change in new year.

1.41pm: News round-ups of the events at the partyroom meeting now available at news.com.au and The Australian.

1.33pm: It’s certainly a better result than yesterday on the CPRS - but it won’t give Turnbull any security. Almost half the party still out to get him…

1.31pm: Joe Hockey speaking after the meeting. “Clearly this issue has done us incredible damage and I hope the Australian people forgive us…”. Emphasises the Liberal Party is a progressive party. Says given the mood of the party the 48-35 result was a good result for Turnbull.

1.29pm: It’s understood Joe Hockey was sounded out by the right for leadership on condition he opposed the CPRS. Said he’s not interested in starting his leadership career by selling his soul.

1.28pm: Kevin Andrews says he accepts the result of the ballot, but 35 is a significant number in the party room, which makes a strong point about the position on the CPRS. He says of Turnbull: “of course he has my support, he’s the leader of the party.”

1.23pm: No spill. Motion lost 48-35 in a secret ballot.

1.14pm: Cannot find a single Lib who is taking Kevin Andrews’ candidacy seriously or as a genuine threat. With Abbott not in the mix Turnbull shouldn’t get rolled.

1.13pm: Parliament security, at the request of the Opposition Leader’s office, are preventing journalists from congregating near the party room. Not sure why, as people inside the meeting will text developments to the press gallery anyway.

12.56pm: Samantha Maiden of The Australian writes on Twitter: turnbull has just walked into office with dep COS credlin. looks really upset

Continue reading "Live blog: Liberals in crisis" »

HIS voice hoarse and breaking from arguing his case over 12 hours of solid meetings, a haggard Malcolm Turnbull declared “I’m the leader” six times last night at a defiant but probably futile press conference aimed at asserting his authority over a political party which is split almost exactly in half.

By the end of the press conference he looked like a doomed man, almost resigned to his likely demise as he faces betrayal by members of Shadow Cabinet, abandonment by the National Party, with almost half the party now canvassing a leadership spill as early as this Thursday - or protracted sniping ahead of his execution at a later date.

The press conference started in bullish fashion. Flanked by deputy leader Julie Bishop and chief climate negotiator Ian Macfarlane, Mr Turnbull declared he had won “overwhelming” party support for his deal with Kevin Rudd over the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme.

Rubbish, rebel MPs were saying to reporters via SMS and in corridor chats, explaining that 40 MPs had spoken against the package and just 33 in favour - and that Mr Turnbull had inflated the numbers by arbitrarily including Shadow Cabinet in its entirety in the yes camp, getting him the paltriest possible majority at 47 to 46.

Continue reading "Last plea of a doomed man" »

Can you believe we’re back here again on the Liberal leadership? Joe Hockey said two things almost in the same breath on live radio today - he had been approached about the leadership, but supported Malcolm Turnbull.

Samantha Maiden at The Australian reports the shadow Treasurer said he remained loyal to Turnbull, but admitted he’s had discussions about the leadership. There was this:

I am not going to lie and pretend something hasn’t happened.

Continue reading "L is for Liberal, but clearly not for loyalty" »

The man who never voted Liberal in his life has now done the dirty on the man who never tried to join Labor in his life.

Before considering the impact which Brendan Nelson’s sudden and petulant departure from politics will have on Malcolm Turnbull’s flimsy leadership, it’s worth noting its cost to you, the taxpayers.

By refusing to serve out the (very short) remainder of this parliamentary term, Brendan Nelson has forced the public to underwrite the significant expense of a completely unnecessary by-election.

Continue reading "Ratting on his leader at expense of taxpayers" »

I’ve just spent a punishing 30 minutes reading Malcolm Turnbull’s climate change plan and I think I need a bit of a lie down. If you want a reasonably concise explanation of what it means here’s The Australian’s noble effort. The unedited and unfathomable version can be found here at the Liberals’ site.

These are the questions which struck me while reading it: Is Turnbull’s plan a sincere and reasoned attempt at compromise - and if so was Labor wrong to dismiss it out of hand?

Or is it purely an internal measure to silence his critics within the party - and if so should he butt out of the debate and let the government of the day exercise its mandate? We’ve asked some of the players to file, so there’s more to come but for now, over to you.

I WOULDN’T be surprised if Malcolm Turnbull feels like a contestant on Dancing with the Stars.

After revelations that his quickstep to the Utegate affair proved to be a step in the wrong direction, he is now trying to sidestep being voted off the Liberal Party dance floor and salvage his reputation.

As Parliament resumes this week, he will be hoping he can find a new routine to take attention off his previous faux pas and distance himself further from his now-disgraced former dance partner Godwin Grech.

Continue reading "Is this Turnbull’s last dance?" »

As this fight looks almost inevitable within the Liberal Party anyway it seems logical to have it now: Joe Hockey should be the next Liberal leader over Tony Abbott.

The Punch editor David Penberthy makes the case for Tony Abbott taking the leadership below, pointing to his right wing conviction politics as being more of a strength than they are a weakness.

But it ignores the fact that it is possible to have a leader who is comfortable walking the grounds of conservative Australia and still able to sell a strong moderate message - enter Joe Hockey.

Continue reading "Abbott’s not the answer, it’s time to play Hockey" »

Malcolm Turnbull has just meandered his way through a press conference about the Utegate debacle. You can read about it here. It came amid renewed speculation in Liberal ranks over the leadership question, which The Punch adds to with this piece.

WHETHER you’re a rabid left-winger, a moderate liberal or an arch neo-con who thinks Camp X-Ray should not be shut down but turned into a franchise, you would have to concede the fact that the greatest period of unpopularity in the Liberal Party’s modern history has coincided with having two leaders who are anything but traditional conservatives.

The incessant speculation over Malcolm Turnbull – fuelled by the polls, and given a powerful new shot in the arm by the latest Utegate developments – invites serious talk about whether the Libs might now return to a conviction politician.

Continue reading "Mad Monk? It sounds crazy but it just might work…" »

OK, so that was a pretty lame excuse to run a picture of Tony Danza.

But as the small puff of dust settles over Sunday’s vaguely comical yarn suggesting that a “Two Tonys” ticket - comprising Sydney’s Tony Abbott as leader and Melbourne’s Tony Smith as deputy - is steeling itself to seize control of the Liberal Party, a broader and scarier question remains for Malcolm Turnbull.

Namely that his leadership may now be regarded as so tenuous that, especially over the coming fallow winter months when the jaded MPs among his number have more time on their hands, he may find himself drifting into that vortex of incessant, once-every-three-days leadership speculation, which eventually makes his own job totally impossible.

Continue reading "Third Tony emerges in battle for Liberal leadership" »

Update 10.55pm: On Lateline tonight Joe Hockey did his best to turn the issue back onto Wayne Swan and the media, but confused things further when he refused to acknowledge the smoking gun email was a fake. When Tony Jones asked him if it was fabricated, Hockey said: “I don’t know, I honestly don’t know.” He also said: “We have no greater insight into the source of the alleged email than anyone else.”
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As if Malcolm Turnbull wasn’t copping it enough from across the Chamber on his major Ute-gate fumblings, tonight one of his own picked up the ball and handed it to the other side.

The ABC’s Chris Uhlmann reported the Australian Federal Police intended to question public servant Godwin Grech over a string of leaks from the Treasury Department, other than the now infamous fake email allegedly found on his home computer.

According to Uhlmann, more than one Liberal told him they believed Grech had been supplying information to the Coalition, and Turnbull in particular “off-line” since the time of the Howard Government.

One of them said to the ABC political editor: “He (Grech) has been sympathetic to us for some time.”

As the revelations about Mr Grech continue at such a rapid pace, and coming from inside the Coalition no less, Turnbull’s judgement, and position, is looking more and more fragile.

Continue reading "Is Turnbull going “off-line”?" »

As Federal Parliament starts to resemble an X-Files episode, the latest mad theory is that Peter Costello is being encouraged to rethink his eight-day-old decision to leave politics.

There are even byzantine claims that the sham email found by the AFP yesterday at treasury official Godwin Grech’s house - which has today been pelted with eggs - was the political equivalent of an exploding cigar aimed at destroying Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership.

The theory has been given extra legs with revelations on The Punch yesterday that the AFP want to have a quiet word to former Costello staffer Paul Lindwall, who until recently was working as Mr Turnbull’s economics advisor, to see what role if any he had in the email affair. There are no suggestions of any wrongdoing on his part but he is a confidante of Mr Grech and the coppers are keen to rule him in or out of the equation.

It’s anything goes stuff in Canberra right now. The wildly speculative Costello talk does indicate one thing - serious Liberal disquiet over Malcolm Turnbull’s judgment on Utegate, and his ability to bounce back from a shocking 24 hours.

Should Peter Costello make a comeback?

The Punch will again provide live coverage of the Question Time mayhem from 2pm.

Editor’s note: David Gazard was Peter Costello’s political advisor from 2003 to 2007 and is one of his closest confidantes.

As Australian politics has become more professional, it has become more brutal.

Gone are the days, by and large, of a certain cross-party respect for each other and certain boundaries that are never crossed. They have been replaced by machine men, spin doctors and campaign managers more focussed on one thing: winning at all costs.

It’s a harder, unforgiving and relentless environment, where people who openly describe themselves as haters abound, and are lionised for describing themselves as thus.

Continue reading "Costello’s faith and decency did not suit brutal times" »

As of this morning there was one other person in Australia who knew that Peter Costello was quitting politics today - his wife Tanya.

A few hours later he was on his feet in the nation’s Parliament, the subject of surprised, hastily-composed tributes from Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull, on an amazing career spanning almost 20 years, 11 years of them as treasurer.

Those closest to him are today happy and relieved that this genuine family man can now spend some proper time out of the spotlight with those he loves most.

But there is also a sense of melancholy at what might have been.

Continue reading "Party’s over as Peter Costello bows out of politics" »

UPDATE: this is a refiled version of The Punch’s lead from this morning’s edition, which came on the same day Peter Costello confirmed in the nation’s Parliament at 2pm that he would not renominate for Higgins. We will be posting more analysis this afternoon.

PETER Costello has become a permanently destabilising influence within the Liberal Party and should get out of politics unless he’s prepared to run for the leadership or rule out mounting a challenge, a growing number of Liberal MPs believe.

With June 30 looming as the date by which Mr Costello must decide whether to re-nominate for his seat of Higgins, fed-up Liberals believe he should only do so again if he can give a clear indication either way as to his leadership intentions.

Continue reading "Party’s over Pete you’re free to go, fed-up Libs tell Punch" »

Peter Costello has become a permanently destabilising influence within the Liberal Party and should get out of politics unless he’s prepared to run for the leadership or rule out mounting a challenge, a growing number of Liberal MPs believe.

With June 30 looming as the date by which Mr Costello must decide whether to re-nominate for his seat of Higgins, fed-up Liberals believe he should only do so again if he can give a clear indication either way as to his leadership intentions.

In a special report on Mr Costello’s future, The Punch can reveal that the jockeying has begun in Melbourne for his blue-ribbon seat.

Continue reading "Smiles all round as Cozza quits" »

I have a friend in the Liberal Party. Not someone I agree with but a friend nonetheless. His name is Brian Loughnane and he is their Federal Director. Every so often I used to join him for coffee. In the beginning it was like a meeting in Panmunjeom (that hut in the Korean Demilitarised Zone) although the back verandah at the Kurrajong Hotel in Canberra was a bit less formal.

The discussion was not as intense. Most of the discussions were pre-negotiations about the leaders’ debate in the federal election. Nothing was ever given away, no information traded and loyalty to your leader was always a given (whatever the circumstances). After a few of these meetings we’d chat about politics (usually in the US and the UK) and I grew to like the bloke.

One of the reasons we got on was a mutual sense of how difficult our respective jobs could be. He had done tough stints as Downer’s Chief of Staff in Opposition and I was more than half way through a decade long stint at the ALP National Secretariat. Both of us had seen politics and politicians at their best and their worst.

Continue reading "Liberal Party’s 14-year weapon of mass distraction" »

If Peter Costello does decide not to contest the next election, the party will not have to look too hard for candidates to fill the blue-ribbon seat.

The executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs, John Roskam, is the first to confirm publicly that he will nominate should Mr Costello not meet the June 30 deadline.

At a meeting with The Punch at the IPA offices in Melbourne’s Collins Street - which Roskam describes only half-jokingly as “Australia’s neo-con headquarters” - Roskam makes it clear that he isn’t calling on Costello to chuck it in.

But the 41-year-old married father of twins says that, with the constant speculation surrounding Mr Costello’s leadership plans, there is a chance for the Liberals to opt instead for change and renewal. 

Continue reading "John Roskam: Is this the next member for Higgins?" »

While Peter Costello often cites his love of serving the people of Higgins as the reason for staying on in Parliament it’s unclear whether the feeling is wholly mutual.

The Punch spent last Thursday in the electorate of Higgins talking to the people caught in the middle of the Liberal Party’s domestic dispute and - frankly - there’s not a lot of concern about what Peter Costello does with his life.

Standing outside his sunglasses shop on Toorak Road I asked 42-year old Emidio what he thought of Costello’s indecision:

“I think he’s been a positive contribution to the country but that doesn’t mean he can’t be destructive to the party. But I think long term it can only be helpful to have someone like him; I don’t know whether that’s helpful to the Liberal Party though. But I don’t think he’s a bad bloke.”

Continue reading "On the mean streets of South Yarra, the lights are on…" »