Forecasts

The first and last time I was in mainland China was 1988. I caught a train from Guangzhou to Shanghai. There was a Chinese girl in my cabin, being molested on a top bunk by a Frenchman. He spoke English and Chinese and between their activities I took the opportunity to interrogate her.

I asked her what had changed in China since Mao Zedong’s death. She said: “Mao Zedong is not dead.”

I assumed this was one of those “cultural things” they go on about with the Chinese. Perhaps she regarded the Great Helmsman as an Eternal Spirit, or such.

Continue reading "Mao is dead, but his doublespeak lives on" »

Everyone loves to bag the weatherman. But the cold, hard truth of the matter is that weather forecasts have become extremely reliable. It’s everyone else who gets it wrong.

By “everyone else” I mean both the general public and the media. As messengers, the media often over-simplify the bureau’s raw data to the point of abstraction, while the public takes the game of Chinese Whispers a step further, wildly misinterpreting the media’s already-distorted forecasts.

It happens every day. A forecast that says “slight chance of a shower” becomes an umbrella icon on a ditzy weather presenter’s weather chart, which the public then read as a certain deluge.

Continue reading "Don’t blame the Weather Bureau for dud forecasts" »

I had to check that the date on the paper wasn’t April 1. Under the headline “Tanfastic – Time to strip off as spring hots up” readers were breathlessly warned that: “Sun-seekers should gear up for the hottest day of the year today as temperatures reach a balmy 22 degrees.

“The unrivalled hot weather – 76 degrees Fahrenheit – follows a mixed Easter weekend of blue skies dotted with showers.”

I can’t now recall whether the temperature reached the “balmy” heights of 22 on that April day but the story marked the beginning of the annual season for predicting that Britain will have a scorching summer.

Since then people have been warned to expect to “swelter” during a “blistering” summer.

Continue reading "Postcard from London: Get set for a “scorching” 22C" »