Bruce Hawker

The joke when Peter Costello was trying in vain to cobble together a viable leadership push was that he had enough supporters to fill a Tarago van. Kevin Rudd probably has around the same level of support – Kev’s van might also be fitted with a trailer to carry a few extra bods up the back – but it in numerical terms it is far from being an unstoppable juggernaut which will steamroll Julia Gillard out of the top job.

My name's Kevin, I'm from Queensland…Photo: Courier Mail

It’s the numbers that matter in politics. In the absence of good numbers, aspiring leaders fall back on psychology. History suggests it offers no sure path to the leadership. Quite the opposite.

Peter Costello was a bit like the dorky guy at the school disco who hung around in the corner hoping a girl would ask him to dance.

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