http://www.thepunch.com.au/tags/polls/ Politics, political opinion, world news, sports news and the latest news and views updated live, daily on The Punch - Australia's best conversation. en Copyright 2012 The Punch penberthyd@newsltd.com.au penberthyd@newsltd.com.au Thu, 09 Feb 2012 01:45:28 +0000 Thu, 09 Feb 2012 01:45:28 +0000 Politics, opinion, world news, sports news, latest news, views, Barack Obama, Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard, Nathan Rees, Malcolm Turnbull, Peter Garrett, Barnaby Joyce, Australian, federal politics, opinion polls, election, The Punch, thepunch, punch ExpressionEngine 1.6.7 http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss 15 http://www.thepunch.com.au/images/punch-logo-rss.png http://www.thepunch.com.au/ 144 70 Politics, political opinion, world news, sports news and the latest news and views updated live, daily on The Punch - Australia's best conversation. Search The Punch keywords http://www.thepunch.com.au/search/ http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/julia-gillard-is-on-the-highway-to-the-danger-zone/ Typically, leadership contests have that nagging chicken-or-egg feel about them. They usually involve a period of intense public speculation with various insiders anonymously cited as backing this option or that. It is a process which can leave voters suspicious of motives if only because change, division, and conflict, make great news copy. feedback@thepunch.com.au (Tory Shepherd) Article http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/julia-gillard-is-on-the-highway-to-the-danger-zone/#comments http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/julia-gillard-is-on-the-highway-to-the-danger-zone/#item7681 Thu, 09 Feb 2012 01:45:28 +0000 It was a common question over the break: “What’s going to happen in Canberra this coming year - will there be an election?’‘ Politics has always been a rough game but in recent times it’s become a virtual blood-sport with a constant sense that there’s another big event around every corner. It matters less whether it’s an early election or perhaps a leadership contest on one or both sides. This “what’s-gonna-happen” fascination goes not merely to whether Tony Abbott can maintain the pressure on Julia Gillard he so relentlessly applied in 2011, but also to whether her own colleagues will hold fast or do the unthinkable. http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/2012-julia-gillards-year-of-living-precariously/ It was a common question over the break: “What’s going to happen in Canberra this coming year - will there be an election?’‘ Politics has always been a rough game but in recent times it’s become a virtual blood-sport with a constant sense that there’s another big event around every corner. It matters less whether it’s an early election or perhaps a leadership contest on one or both sides. This “what’s-gonna-happen” fascination goes not merely to whether Tony Abbott can maintain the pressure on Julia Gillard he so relentlessly applied in 2011, but also to whether her own colleagues will hold fast or do the unthinkable. feedback@thepunch.com.au (Tory Shepherd) Article http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/2012-julia-gillards-year-of-living-precariously/#comments http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/2012-julia-gillards-year-of-living-precariously/#item7566 Thu, 09 Feb 2012 01:45:28 +0000 It was a common question over the break: “What’s going to happen in Canberra this coming year - will there be an election?’‘ Politics has always been a rough game but in recent times it’s become a virtual blood-sport with a constant sense that there’s another big event around every corner. It matters less whether it’s an early election or perhaps a leadership contest on one or both sides. This “what’s-gonna-happen” fascination goes not merely to whether Tony Abbott can maintain the pressure on Julia Gillard he so relentlessly applied in 2011, but also to whether her own colleagues will hold fast or do the unthinkable. http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/punch-the-polls-still-show-that-no-one-trusts-labor/ The latest Nielsen poll shows Prime Minister Julia Gillard closing the gap on Tony Abbott. Here’s what the Opposition environment spokesperson Greg Hunt thinks about that. While Craig Emerson and the ALP are popping the champagne corks about a 30 per cent primary vote and a 45 per cent share of the two-party vote there is need for some historical perspective. The previous ACNielsen Poll would have delivered Labor the worst result since the preferential system was introduced in its modern form in 1949. Of 25 elections held over that period, none had ever seen a major party slip below 43.1 per cent. By comparison, yesterday’s results, much trumpeted by Trade Minister Craig Emerson in Pollyanna mode, would bring the third worst electoral result since the preferential system was introduced. feedback@thepunch.com.au (Tory Shepherd) Article http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/punch-the-polls-still-show-that-no-one-trusts-labor/#comments http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/punch-the-polls-still-show-that-no-one-trusts-labor/#item7145 Thu, 09 Feb 2012 01:45:28 +0000 It was a common question over the break: “What’s going to happen in Canberra this coming year - will there be an election?’‘ Politics has always been a rough game but in recent times it’s become a virtual blood-sport with a constant sense that there’s another big event around every corner. It matters less whether it’s an early election or perhaps a leadership contest on one or both sides. This “what’s-gonna-happen” fascination goes not merely to whether Tony Abbott can maintain the pressure on Julia Gillard he so relentlessly applied in 2011, but also to whether her own colleagues will hold fast or do the unthinkable. http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/Obama-will-help-gillard-look-positively-prime-ministerial/ Mixing with the great and powerful on the international stage does not always give Australian prime ministers a boost in their domestic standing. Hosting President George W. Bush and a string of other world leaders at the APEC summit just before the 2007 election did nothing to help John Howard with Australian voters. But Labor strategists are pretty confident that next week’s visit by Barack Obama will be a positive for Julia Gillard. feedback@thepunch.com.au (Tory Shepherd) Article http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/Obama-will-help-gillard-look-positively-prime-ministerial/#comments http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/Obama-will-help-gillard-look-positively-prime-ministerial/#item7131 Thu, 09 Feb 2012 01:45:28 +0000 It was a common question over the break: “What’s going to happen in Canberra this coming year - will there be an election?’‘ Politics has always been a rough game but in recent times it’s become a virtual blood-sport with a constant sense that there’s another big event around every corner. It matters less whether it’s an early election or perhaps a leadership contest on one or both sides. This “what’s-gonna-happen” fascination goes not merely to whether Tony Abbott can maintain the pressure on Julia Gillard he so relentlessly applied in 2011, but also to whether her own colleagues will hold fast or do the unthinkable. http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/Confucius-say-no-trust-woman-with-hair-of-rust/ According to Confucius, the three things necessary for government are weapons, food and trust. If a ruler can’t hold onto all three, Confucius told his disciple Tsze-kung, he should give up the weapons first and the food next. Trust must be jealously guarded for “without trust we cannot stand.” Although written over two thousand years ago in a vastly different culture to the modern west, the advice remains pertinent. More than any other system of government, democracy is built on a broad consensus of values and duties, without which the rights of individuals are endangered. Central amongst these values is trust. Without it, the consent of the governed is frayed or destroyed as a culture of suspicion and distrust develops. feedback@thepunch.com.au (Tory Shepherd) Article http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/Confucius-say-no-trust-woman-with-hair-of-rust/#comments http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/Confucius-say-no-trust-woman-with-hair-of-rust/#item6180 Thu, 09 Feb 2012 01:45:28 +0000 It was a common question over the break: “What’s going to happen in Canberra this coming year - will there be an election?’‘ Politics has always been a rough game but in recent times it’s become a virtual blood-sport with a constant sense that there’s another big event around every corner. It matters less whether it’s an early election or perhaps a leadership contest on one or both sides. This “what’s-gonna-happen” fascination goes not merely to whether Tony Abbott can maintain the pressure on Julia Gillard he so relentlessly applied in 2011, but also to whether her own colleagues will hold fast or do the unthinkable. http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/Obama-and-Gillard-defy-the-theory-of-voternomics/ Just as it sinks in here that an election is two full years away, the political circus that is American politics is sending in the clowns and pegging out its big-top for another round of primary races. As it does so, one sobering factoid for the Obama administration is that no president in the modern era has been re-elected with an unemployment rate above 7.5 per cent. Which is just another way of saying Bill Clinton famous maxim, “it’s the economy stupid’‘. Yet here in Australia, it ain’t just the economy. feedback@thepunch.com.au (Tory Shepherd) Article http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/Obama-and-Gillard-defy-the-theory-of-voternomics/#comments http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/Obama-and-Gillard-defy-the-theory-of-voternomics/#item6103 Thu, 09 Feb 2012 01:45:28 +0000 It was a common question over the break: “What’s going to happen in Canberra this coming year - will there be an election?’‘ Politics has always been a rough game but in recent times it’s become a virtual blood-sport with a constant sense that there’s another big event around every corner. It matters less whether it’s an early election or perhaps a leadership contest on one or both sides. This “what’s-gonna-happen” fascination goes not merely to whether Tony Abbott can maintain the pressure on Julia Gillard he so relentlessly applied in 2011, but also to whether her own colleagues will hold fast or do the unthinkable. http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/the-worst-kept-secret-this-government-just-no-good/ Hurrying along a Parliament House corridor this week, I was pulled aside by a Canberra insider with strong links to Labor. “I want to let you in on a secret,” he said sotto voce, theatrically hamming up a non-existent threat of eavesdroppers. “This government is just not very good.” feedback@thepunch.com.au (Tory Shepherd) Article http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/the-worst-kept-secret-this-government-just-no-good/#comments http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/the-worst-kept-secret-this-government-just-no-good/#item5690 Thu, 09 Feb 2012 01:45:28 +0000 It was a common question over the break: “What’s going to happen in Canberra this coming year - will there be an election?’‘ Politics has always been a rough game but in recent times it’s become a virtual blood-sport with a constant sense that there’s another big event around every corner. It matters less whether it’s an early election or perhaps a leadership contest on one or both sides. This “what’s-gonna-happen” fascination goes not merely to whether Tony Abbott can maintain the pressure on Julia Gillard he so relentlessly applied in 2011, but also to whether her own colleagues will hold fast or do the unthinkable. http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/keep-voters-close-and-your-political-allies-even-closer/ Political leaders, be they premiers or prime ministers, need protection - especially during the tough times when the polls look sick, and the backbench can get nervy. ‘Twas ever thus. Bob Hawke could rely on the dominance and iron discipline of the Right faction. Factional heavyweights like Graham Richardson and Robert Ray controlled the numbers ensuring nothing untoward occurred. It was a highly effective arrangement with only one major weakness. When some of those closest to him swapped sides it was game over. That’s politics. The King is dead, long live the King. feedback@thepunch.com.au (Tory Shepherd) Article http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/keep-voters-close-and-your-political-allies-even-closer/#comments http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/keep-voters-close-and-your-political-allies-even-closer/#item5181 Thu, 09 Feb 2012 01:45:28 +0000 It was a common question over the break: “What’s going to happen in Canberra this coming year - will there be an election?’‘ Politics has always been a rough game but in recent times it’s become a virtual blood-sport with a constant sense that there’s another big event around every corner. It matters less whether it’s an early election or perhaps a leadership contest on one or both sides. This “what’s-gonna-happen” fascination goes not merely to whether Tony Abbott can maintain the pressure on Julia Gillard he so relentlessly applied in 2011, but also to whether her own colleagues will hold fast or do the unthinkable. http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/the-mood-altering-effect-of-the-new-paradigm/ As a social researcher, you always try to keep your mind open and your ears alert to any slightly change in public sentiment. While it’s rare to hear anything new when you are listening to voters talk about politics, you have to allow yourself the opportunity to be surprised. The week after Labor secured the necessary support to form government, we were in field conducting research for our bi-annual Mind & Mood report. feedback@thepunch.com.au (Tory Shepherd) Article http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/the-mood-altering-effect-of-the-new-paradigm/#comments http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/the-mood-altering-effect-of-the-new-paradigm/#item4384 Thu, 09 Feb 2012 01:45:28 +0000 It was a common question over the break: “What’s going to happen in Canberra this coming year - will there be an election?’‘ Politics has always been a rough game but in recent times it’s become a virtual blood-sport with a constant sense that there’s another big event around every corner. It matters less whether it’s an early election or perhaps a leadership contest on one or both sides. This “what’s-gonna-happen” fascination goes not merely to whether Tony Abbott can maintain the pressure on Julia Gillard he so relentlessly applied in 2011, but also to whether her own colleagues will hold fast or do the unthinkable. http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/we-need-to-get-over-our-poll-addiction/ Australia really needs to do something about its addiction to opinion polls. The week following the election, just like the weeks that led up to it, was dominated by polls. First came the local ones in the rural Independents’ electorates, which some interpreted as a new set of riding instructions to Messrs Katter, Windsor and Oakeshott. feedback@thepunch.com.au (Tory Shepherd) Article http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/we-need-to-get-over-our-poll-addiction/#comments http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/we-need-to-get-over-our-poll-addiction/#item3955 Thu, 09 Feb 2012 01:45:28 +0000 It was a common question over the break: “What’s going to happen in Canberra this coming year - will there be an election?’‘ Politics has always been a rough game but in recent times it’s become a virtual blood-sport with a constant sense that there’s another big event around every corner. It matters less whether it’s an early election or perhaps a leadership contest on one or both sides. This “what’s-gonna-happen” fascination goes not merely to whether Tony Abbott can maintain the pressure on Julia Gillard he so relentlessly applied in 2011, but also to whether her own colleagues will hold fast or do the unthinkable.