Abbott's ascendancy

The PM has had a busy weekend, flitting around between the Premiers, spruiking his health plan. But insulation is still in the air and the Opposition isn’t about to let it drop. Join us here from 2pm for live coverage of the House of Representatives Question Time.

FORMAL acknowledgement of the first Australians as the original owners of the land is now de rigueur for Rudd Government ministers and MPs. It usually goes something like this: ``I would like to recognise the original owners of the land upon which we meet and acknowledge them as the oldest continuing cultures in human history.’‘

It is intended as a heart-felt gesture of respect and has been received well by all concerned. But it is now being uttered so often and in such a pro-forma way, whether it be at the start of a National Press Club address, or an opening of one event or other, it has begun to ring hollow.

Even among strong supporters of the Aboriginal cause, there is a sense that the acknowledgment, sometimes trotted out with all the emotion of an instruction to stow your tray table and put your seat-back in an upright position, is devaluing the poignancy of Mr Rudd’s historic apology to the Stolen Generations.

Continue reading "Abbott slams Rudd team’s robotic lipservice" »

There is no point in complaining to my parents about what the Rudd Government has done to people in higher income brackets. My parents paid 60 cents in the dollar, worked a six-day week, raised two kids, five cats (not at the same time) and a dog and still saved for their own retirement.

In fact, there is no point discussing any sort of paid maternity leave system with my parents or anyone else who had children more than 10 years ago. Many didn’t have access to one, they don’t see the need for one and they don’t think mothers today deserve one.

And don’t get them started on the Baby Bonus.

Continue reading "A super idea for supporting new parents financially" »

Which political leader has just adopted a policy to champion the rights of working women underpinned by progressive taxation? Not the Social Democrat, Kevin Rudd, but the Conservative, Tony Abbott.

I have dumped on the term ’progressive’ in a previous Punch piece, but I suspect that’s how many would have described Tony Abbott’s maternity leave policy if it had been announced by Kevin Rudd.

You will like Tony Abbott’s policy if you accept the importance of parental engagement with a child in the first year of that child’s life. The policy with the longer period of paid maternity leave is a better policy.

Continue reading "Abbott the progressive?" »

John Howard told The Punch at Friday’s Liberal Party get-together in Mosman that Tony Abbott “hasn’t put a foot wrong” since becoming Liberal Leader in December. It now looks like in the past 24 hours that Abbott has done just that.

The reaction from surprised business leaders, a cynical public and his own irritated MPs suggests that Mr Abbott’s maternity leave scheme is a poor bit of policy which has also been badly managed politically.

While business has a tendency to complain about any new cost that comes its way, and the public a habit of being cynical about everything, it’s the political mismanagement of the issue, which saw Mr Abbott offer a qualified apology to his own MPs today, which may have done the most damage. It certainly gave Labor its first good Question Time of the year, after weeks of drift and distraction over the insulation scandal, and successive drops in the polls in the backdraft of the failed ETS.

Continue reading "Abbott’s first mistake" »

For someone who has been intimately involved in healthcare both at the coalface as a registered nurse as well as an academic for over 50 years I am appalled, but not surprised, at the current wave of negativity concerning the Federal Government’s Health Reform Plan.

Not only is the commentary negative, it is also blatantly misinformed in the majority of cases. But more concerning than this is the fact that mainstream debates around the issues at stake have been once again hijacked by the vested interests who have the most to lose by substantial changes to the current system.

Leading this negative commentary is the Leader of the Opposition Tony Abbott,  the Minister for Health when money was being siphoned from the health system.

Continue reading "The medical profession is sabotaging its own salvation" »

Anyone trying to understand the politics of the federal health takeover purely from a policy perspective is only seeing half the picture. Beyond the rights and wrong of hospital funding is an attempt to shift the political game onto Labor’s home turf.

If you wanted to beat Geelong you wouldn’t go to Skilled Stadium, if you wanted to run over the Broncos you’d stay away from Lang Park because local knowledge and crowd loyalty can have a real impact on the final result.

Likewise in politics, where home ground is not dictated so much by geography, but by the issues being fought over.

Continue reading "Home-ground advantage counts in politics" »

Bring on the battle for the most generous publicly funded paid maternity leave scheme, in fact, let’s have all all out electoral bidding war on the issue with both sides throwing lots of money.

Tony Abbott has marked International Women’s Day by announcing a proposal to introduce a scheme that would see working women paid 26 weeks of leave at their salary level at the time of the birth.

The Opposition Leader stopped short of calling his plan a policy, saying it needed work and consultation with interest groups. Lots of women will be cheering at even the mention of it so I’m loathe to talk Mr Abbott’s plan down, but there’s one thing about it that really bothers me.

Continue reading "Abbott’s parent plan could pit women against each other" »

It is Tony Abbott’s 93rd day as Leader of the Liberal Party and he’s being cheered as a hero. He’s just arrived at the Mosman RSL, one of the few affordable venues in the richest suburb on Sydney’s ultra-conservative North Shore, and the member for Warringah is not among friends but fanatics.

If Abbott is trying to argue that it’s a marathon not a sprint, and that the party has a lot of work to do ahead of polling day, tonight is not the night for such dispassionate political cliché. It feels like a dress rehearsal for a victory party.

Every single person that I speak to on the night not only believes that the Libs can win, many are saying they will win.

Continue reading "The sweetest upset of all?" »

AS Kevin Rudd ploughs through the media analysis of his political woes and weighs the counsel of advisers and the trends identified by pollsters, the man known as Kevin 24/7 may be in need of some more homespun and maternal advice.

Kevin, it’s past your bedtime. Get some sleep.

The fatigue factor has been largely unexplored in the context of the Prime Minister’s poll slump and the corresponding surge by Opposition Leader Tony Abbott. There has been a longstanding and well-documented view within Labor circles that Rudd’s workload and sleeping habits are so punishing as to be unsustainable.

Continue reading "Has Kevin 24-7 been caught napping by a fresh opponent?" »

Back in October last year, I promised a group of Aboriginal stockmen that I would soon return to observe progress in the re-establishment of an Aboriginal cattle industry in the Northern Territory.

It was not a promise that I considered I could break just because I now had a different job. The problems of indigenous Australia need to be taken seriously by Australia’s leaders and not just by the ministers and shadow ministers with special responsibility for them.

That’s how I came to be on a quad bike, low on fuel, following tyre tracks in the gathering dark earlier this week. That’s how I sampled a witchety grub and honey ants dug up by the women of an outstation called Ukaka.

Continue reading "Abbott: Why I journeyed into the dead heart" »

Is this a pattern? Here are a series of similiar photos of Tony Abbott and Vladimir Putin. They like going bare-chested…

... they both enjoy the outdoors ...

Continue reading "Spot the difference: Mad monk or Russian oligarch" »

With an election to be held sometime this year, it’s time to start pondering that important but not necessarily easy question: who to vote for.

This is simple for those born into a political party or otherwise partisan, a non-issue for the apathetic but problematic for those who care but dislike Labor and Liberal in equal measure.

I used to be a traditional Labor voter by default as I would rather have bicycled from Perth to Sydney for no reason than voted Liberal. But it’s just as hard to vote for Labor these days.

Continue reading "All ready to go to the election with no-one to vote for" »

With all this public confessing, rending of garments and epiphanies going on you’d be forgiven for thinking Kevin Rudd had run screaming back into the arms of Catholicism.

The Prime Minister’s reversion was completed fittingly on the Sabbath yesterday on the high alter of Sunday morning politics, Insiders.

It’s a shrine he hasn’t visited for quite some time. Forgive me Barry for I have sinned, it’s been 21 months since my last appearance.

(Does anyone else think it’s a coincidence Rudd’s new-found martyrdom started simmering about the time the Pope confirmed the canonisation of Mary McKillop? Divine inspiration maybe?)

Continue reading "All this self-flagellation is making me queasy" »

Almost 10 years before he became one of the nation’s most accomplished welfare bums - living off the very parliamentary super scheme he railed against as Opposition Leader and now gloats about receiving in his newspaper column - Mark Latham was making a lot of sense about the explosion of welfare dependency in Australia.

Latham was especially energised by the surge in the number of Australians on the disability pension. He tackled the issue at length in his dour but valuable1998 tome Civilising Global Capital. The book was ridiculed as an unreadable doorstop by the Libs, run down by envious Labor non-thinkers as the showy work of an intellectual poseur who was using it only to position himself for the leadership.

But it contained a lot of provocative thinking about the (dictionary definition) incredible rate at which Australians were signing on in their 50s, 40s, even their 30s for a life on handouts as they convinced the welfare state that they quite simply could never work again.

Continue reading "Disability pension: reform that dare not speak its name" »

Peter Garrett has not been sacked as Environment Minister – and you can bet your possibly electrified house on the fact that he will not be sacked by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.

If anything was going to tip Garrett over the edge it was the revelation that a risk assessment report was prepared in April last year by respected law firm Minter Ellison but that – remarkably – the minister only read it 11 days ago.

But after holding the line during Question Time, with the Opposition moving a predictable but justified censure motion calling for his head, Garrett is emphatic that he doesn’t need to go, and Rudd insistent that he won’t go.

Continue reading "Why Kevin Rudd will not sack Peter Garrett" »

If you spend time in our public hospitals as a patient or as someone who works there you are acutely aware of all the concerns about the state of the system and the level of care. 

The people who serve in the public hospital sector are generally committed above and beyond all call, and are constantly frustrated if they feel that cannot provide the correct and best care for a patient because of the limitations of staff, equipment, time and capacity.

Many of us have called for hospital boards and now once again the idea has been floated, this time by Tony Abbott. 

Continue reading "Abbott’s plan for hospital boards is one that can work" »

Today’s insult of the day - Wayne Swan called Joe Hockey “Sloppy Joe” over his comments about interest rates and stimulus spending. The election campaign has started and it’s about economic credibility. Join us from 2pm for Question Time.

Who does the ironing at your house, and other big questions of national significance could be on the agenda for today’s Question Time. Kevin Rudd will be glad to be back on familiar ground after his experience last night in another chamber, with another set of questioners altogether. Join us here from 2pm.

Barnaby Joyce’s move to clarify he is not in a homoerotic relationship with Tony Abbott is the latest example of politicians taking us somewhere we just don’t want to go – into the bedroom.

Following hot on the heels of Tony Abbott’s foray into the ‘gift’ of virginity, Joyce’s gaffe unnervingly suggests that the Coalition has things other than the management of the national economy on their mind.

For Australians, politicians are a bit like our parents – we innately accept that while they probably have sex, we would rather not confront the fact.

Continue reading "I do not want sexual relations with these people" »

Kevin Rudd says it would take only two or three out of every hundred voters to change their minds for Labor to hit the fence. He’s right.

The political atmosphere of 2010 is already noticeably different, more competitive than last year. Liberals are certainly more up-beat having ``regained their mojo’’ as frontbencher, Eric Abetz put it. Labor MPs are correspondingly edgy.

Self evidently, what the PM wants to guard against, particularly inside the Caucus, is the conclusion that a second term is assured. The two Newspolls conducted this year have told the story. That is that Tony Abbott’s ascension to the Liberal leadership, and the clarity it has brought, has consolidated the previously crumbling conservative base. It’s primary vote support has just eclipsed Labor by one point, 41 per cent to 40.

Continue reading "Three in 100 Aussies can destroy Kevin Rudd" »

As the cut and thrust of a new Parliamentary year begins it is worth reflecting on the fact that more thn ever, 2010 will see politicians of all stripes and colours in the face of average voters. 

2010 will undoubtedly become known as “the year of the election” with three state and one federal election all due between now and December 31.  Who then are the politicians that will this year provide interesting watching for the rest of us? 

Of course it would be easy to concentrate on the big hitters and those who will shape the meta-narrative, which pundits call ‘the debate about the debate’.  Among them you would include; Rudd and Abbott, the State Premiers, Bob Brown and Wayne Swan, (in fact nearly all the ministry).  But, everyone will watching them, so here instead, I present a guide to some of the less obvious players in our parliaments but who nevertheless will provide some of the most interesting political subplots of 2010.

Continue reading "The ten politicians to watch in 2010" »

This is a guest blog by journalist and former senior Howard Government press secretary Niki Savva, whose book So Greek, confessions of a conservative leftie, has just been published by Scribe. We thank her for this post and wish her well for the book, it’s a terrific read.

If anyone out there stumbles across the real Kevin Rudd, could they please call his wife and kids. They are very worried because they haven’t seen him for a while and have apparently lodged a missing persons report with the police.

There have been images of Rudd on television and in the newspapers, usually smiling and joking, often with toddlers, but there is no proof it is really him. Or anybody, really. He just looks and sounds like a clone of someone he wishes he was.

Continue reading "Kevin Rudd, the man who wasn’t there" »

Political predictions usually come with a face-saving asterisk, or an alarming promise that you will drop your pants in Martin Place if they don’t come true.

We’ll try to avoid both here – especially the second you’ll be relieved to hear – and instead offer a dispassionate snapshot of the federal political scene as Parliament resumes today for this election year.

It’s not based on today’s Newspoll which shows that Tony Abbott - who unlike Malcolm Turnbull offers a much clearer alternative to Labor especially on climate change - has helped the Libs sneak ahead in the primary vote while still falling short of winning office. Nor is it some bid to spoil Rudd’s attempt to claim underdog status with his pep-talk to MPs yesterday where he warned that Labor could lose. 

Continue reading "Why Kevin Rudd will still win the election" »

If you are already sure who you are going to vote for at this year’s federal election then consider yourself a member of a minority group: the ‘rusted-on voter’.

As this week’s Essential Report illustrates, we have become a Nation of Softies, voters who can be wooed and repelled by our politicians all the way up to voting day.

It is a change in our political culture from previous generations who inherited a party from their parents and stuck with it through thick and thin.

Continue reading "Election 2010: It’s the year of the softie" »

Ordinarily the first parliamentary sitting week for a new opposition leader is a chance to redefine themselves, introduce new ideas to the public, perhaps break the shackles of received wisdom about their view of the world.

But like John Howard when took the Liberal leadership (again) in 1995, Tony Abbott makes his first parliamentary charge as Opposition Leader this week as a relatively well-known political quantity. So do the cliches about him match the perceptions of people in the street? Being the new leader, and seeing as we did the same number on the Prime Minister and Malcolm Turnbull last year, we decided to ask people some simple questions about what they thought of the Member for Warringah.

So was there a surprise, like in the Rudd survey when people said they perceived the Prime Minister as somehow physically small? Nup; respondents described Abbott almost as a caricature of how he’s caricatured: a straight-talking conservative bruiser, hated by some for his views on social issues, known for them by all.

Continue reading "The alternative" »

So Tony Abbott thinks Australian women should quit having pre-marital sex.

We all know he likes a challenge.

But good luck, mate, getting that particular toothpaste back in the tube.

Continue reading "Hey Tony, the virginity ship has sailed" »

Tony Abbott is perfectly entitled to his view as an individual - and as the father of three teenage girls - as to whether women should have sex before they are married.

But as the alternative prime minister, the danger for Abbott is that any airing of his private views will sound like a generalised public call for the women of Australia to keep themselves nice.

This is exactly what has happened – not just with the predictable attacks from sworn enemies such as Julia Gillard, but across blog sites and the twittersphere from politically ambivalent women have interpreted Abbott’s statement as an unwelcome free lecture.

Continue reading "Tony’s virginity troubles and the danger of being honest" »

Tony Abbott’s incendiary comments about immigration could ignite an Australia Day tinderbox.

Speaking last week at an Australia Day Council dinner, the federal opposition leader used language reminiscent of the darkest days of the Howard regime.

‘‘The inescapable minimum that we insist upon is obedience to the law,’’ he said.

Continue reading "Abbott’s message to migrants too incendiary by half" »

As Sir Humphrey Appleby would say, it is a truly ‘courageous’ strategy by Tony Abbott to chose the environment as his first major battleground to combat the Rudd Government.

Does Tony Abbott, climate change sceptic and wild river hater honestly believe he can woo the hearts and minds of green-minded voters? Is there really a nature-loving softy behind the political hard-man façade?

Abbott’s quest for the green vote began in earnest with his declaration that climate change is “crap”. A few weeks later, aided by the well known deep “practical” greenies of Nick Minchin and Barnaby Joyce, Abbott successfully overthrew Malcolm Turnbull and established climate change denialism as the preferred path of the Liberal Party. This is an interesting first play for green votes.

Continue reading "Tony you can’t pull the green wool over our eyes" »

In a move reminiscent of John Howard’s “headland” speeches ahead of his successful 1996 campaign, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott last night delivered the first of his direction statements ahead of this year’s poll. And he adopted a decidedly green hue, saying it was time to scotch the misnomer that conservatives could not be good environmentalists.

The speech contained two policies - the national takeover of the Murray-Darling river system and the creation of a so-called 15,000-strong “Green Army”  - and a promise of more to follow, with Abbott conceding he did not yet have a finalised position on carbon emissions but would do so within the fortnight.

The first policy should have Kevin Rudd worried as if he had been acting as a decisive national leader he would already have stepped in to wrest control of our biggest river system off the squabbling states. The second policy seems more a bit of gimmickry - and expensive gimmickry at that, with a potential bill of up to $750 million to send 15,000 environmental fix-up folks into the bush at $50,000 a pop.

Continue reading "Abbott goes green with one top idea, one dodgy gimmick" »

I’m about to perform what politicians call a “policy shift” and the rest of us call a “backflip.” Here’s hoping I don’t pull a hamstring.

In a fit of festive delirium on the 30th of December I wrote a piece about how great it is that politicians can take a decent holiday and the world doesn’t stop turning. (So searing was my analysis the comment thread turned into a debate about the size of Michelle Obama’s bottom.)

But while I still think everyone deserves a bit of a break at semi-regular intervals, I’m finding the deafening silence emanating from Kirribilli House - well - deafening.

Continue reading "Where’s Kevin Rudd?" »

Kevin Rudd’s book Jasper and Abby and the Great Australia Day Kerfuffle comes out next week. The Prime Minister is establishing himself as a writer with a diverse repertoire. First it was a mini-thesis on the fall of capitalism, now a children’s book involving his pets gallivanting around The Lodge.

And he speaks a second language – not just any old high school French or Spanish or even Italian, but one of the really hard ones: Mandarin. Fluently.

Rudd’s not alone in having some talents beyond politics. In Australia and around the world there are leaders who are clearly master politicians because of power they wield, but also have other special talents. And we’re not talking parlour tricks like being able to blow milk out your nose or play Wonderwall on the guitar.

Continue reading "What happened to pollies being good at just politics?" »

As an open minded ‘ Evangelical Christian’, I have a lot of sympathy with the complaint by Ross Fitzgerald in The Australian that religion is making too much inroad into Australian politics and society.

Let me try and explain my understanding of the phrase ‘ Evangelical Christian’.

I believe in Jesus Christ, not only as the Son of God , but, note, The Word of God ( not the Bible – we judge the Bible by Jesus, not Jesus by the Bible). However, The Bible does contain the Word of God, as does life’s experiences.

Continue reading "The Right shouldn’t take the Christian vote for granted" »

While you are dining out or at the shops over the summer holidays, spare a few minutes to think about the young person serving you and how their rights at work have changed over the past two years.

Two years ago, that person was working under WorkChoices. Chances are they had no protection from unfair dismissal and little or no job security. It was possible they were employed on an Australian Workplace Agreement, which had stripped their minimum conditions to the bare basics.

Their employer could simply ignore them if they and their workmates wanted to join together to collectively bargain for better pay and conditions. And if they chose to join a union or even ask a union into their workplace, they ran the risk of harassment and discrimination from their boss.

Continue reading "Libs still hope the WorkChoices zombie can rise" »

Is it too early to differentiate classic Abbott as Liberal leader from classic Abbott the wrecking ball? Perhaps, but if he does announce soon that a Coalition government would push for a hospital takeover it will be one hell of a great play.

With Abbott and opposition health spokesman Peter Dutton flagging moves to make Coalition policy a referendum to take over state hospitals they have beaten Kevin Rudd and Labor to the punch on what, thus far, has been a dithering display on the issue by Kevin Rudd and Nicola Roxon.

The Government has already broken an election promise on hospitals. It said it would force the states to improve public hospitals or announce a takeover of hospitals, via a referendum at the next election, by mid-2009. It has done neither.

Continue reading "Abbott has beaten Rudd to the punch on health" »

The last month’s political twists and turns, culminating with the Liberal Party’s extraordinary lurch to the right and populist fear-mongering on the ETS “tax on everything”, make it look increasingly like Australia may never reach a political consensus on climate change.

Adding fuel to the fire, after much of hype and high hopes Copenhagen fizzled, failing to deliver the binding international agreement which would have delivered a resounding mandate for Kevin Rudd’s proposed course of action.

Back at home, Tony Abbott’s fiery rhetoric has been starkly reminiscent of another political turning point in 2001, which involved a hapless group of refugees in a sinking boat. Just as the 2001 Tampa election hysteria was fuelled by political opportunism and the politics of fear, so too the response to climate change appears to be heading down the same path.

Continue reading "Are older Australians more sceptical of climate change?" »

I have a dark confession to make. I love Tony Abbott.

Now don’t get me wrong. I wouldn’t vote for the loon while my bum pointed down but at least he’s interesting. Half Jesuit, half crazed Millwall supporter, with a religious philosophy of “share in the love of Jesus or I’ll smash your f***en face in”. He’s the hoot we had to have.

Politics in the grey cloud Rudd blathership is boring. A Rudd press conference is like an hour on the gym bike.

Continue reading "Half Jesuit, half hooligan, and a cure for Rudd’s tedium" »

The turmoil of the opposition leadership spill made Parliament House an eventful place to be for a press photographer. But it has become harder than ever to satisfy the appetite of the news-hungry populace, as the increased bureaucracy is madder than ever.

The feuding within the Liberal Party highlighted the antiquated and ridiculous rules that dictate where photographers and TV cameramen can go and what they can shoot at any given time.

In an attempt to deliver a professional product to our millions of readers and viewers, we were forced to break all the rules, and it has got us into all sorts of trouble.

Continue reading "Shooting Turnbull’s end: how you almost missed it" »

Dylan fans will be familiar with the stream of consciousness liner notes on the back sleeve of Highway 61 Revisited where the Zimmer-man writes of Savage Rose and Fixable and the Cream Judge and the Clown, of Lifelessness saving the world, of the Phony Philosophers and the Beautiful Strangers.

I was compelled to re-read this unusual piece of writing this week after subbing an opinion piece written by Barnaby Joyce and have decided that if Dylan has a literary heir in this country it is the newly-installed shadow minister for finance.

Joyce has now written seven opinion pieces for our website The Punch and the marvellous thing about all of them is that you could buy a pack of Gitanes, slip into your skivvy and beret, and recite random passages aloud in a Soho coffee shop with Miles Davis’ Kind of Blue playing in the background, and the critics would hail you as the greatest beat poet since Ginsberg.

Continue reading "Barnaby knock knock knockin’ on Kevin’s door" »

LOVERS of test cricket know the best thing about the five day game is its potential to ebb and flow. One team can look to be winning but then the character of the match changes - sometimes dramatically and other times in a cumulative, almost imperceptible way.

The importance of small things - a dropped catch for example - becomes obvious only in hindsight. Politics can be strikingly similar in this regard. In this longest of games, there is a general assumption that Kevin Rudd is a shoe-in at the next election.

Polls confirm this on a fortnightly basis and it would be a brave correspondent who predicted otherwise. But equally, the result cannot simply be assumed.

Continue reading "Abbott’s leg spin to Rudd’s middle of the road" »

Whether the recent federal Liberal party showdown over the now rejected Emissions Trading Scheme develops into a thoroughgoing schism only time will tell. Malcolm Turnbull’s robust description of new federal leader Tony Abbot’s climate change thinking is a crude reminder to those Liberals celebrating the weekend’s by-election results in Bradfield and Higgins: environmental politics is here to stay and cannot be swept under the carpet by short-term circuit-breakers.

As I argued in The Australian during August, the current schism between so-called ‘moderates’, small ‘l’ liberals gathered around Turnbull and Joe Hockey, and the conservatives of Abbot and Nick Minchin’s ilk has many of the hallmarks of the 1950s ALP split over communism which spawned the Democratic Labor Party and kept Labor from office for some two decades.

Most accounts of the farcical goings on in the federal Liberal’s party room over the past few weeks have highlighted this underlying ideological conflict. The conservative coup d’état against Turnbull resulted from a fundamental policy divide over climate change dovetailing with opposition to Turnbull’s divisive crash or crash through personality.

Continue reading "Liberals fighting a Labor Party which doesn’t exist" »

UPDATE 4.40pm: Barnaby Joyce has just put out his first press release as Shadow Finance Minister. You can read the full text after the jump - believe me, it’s worth it.

Tony Abbott has just announced quite an extensive reshuffle of his front bench, which, incidentally, rewarded a raft of Punch contributors including Scott Morrison, Bronwyn Bishop and Kevin Andrews with promotions.

You can read Sam Maiden’s news report of his press conference here. (The best line related to The Punch’s own Bronwyn Bishop, who’s been appointed Shadow Minister for Seniors - as Mr Abbott said: “She will be one of them” as well as representing them.)

But the biggest move was the appointment of Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce as Shadow Finance Minister. “Barnaby is an accountant from St George. He knows what it’s like to ensure the books are in order,” Mr Abbott said.

We’d thought we’d re-introduce you to some of the world according to Barnaby, as posted on The Punch, starting with this line from his debut:

What is it that differentiates the political parties? Or is philosophy now no more than a bib handed out to be worn before the political chamber game, a contrived or acquired vocal tribalism?

Continue reading "Shadow Minister Barnaby Joyce, sublime or ridiculous?" »

Hardline conservative Christians helped orchestrate the flood of correspondence that convinced Liberal MPs to ditch support for Malcolm Turnbull and the emissions trading scheme.

One site that published repeated calls for direct lobbying of politicians was Catch the Fire Ministries, a church whose pastor earlier this year said the Black Saturday bushfires were divine vengeance for liberal abortion laws.

It has also emerged that Cory Bernardi, one of the Liberal senators who led the revolt against Turnbull, called on supporters in late November to wage an email campaign to persuade his colleagues in the Senate that the public was outraged at the ETS. His email was published and endorsed by a website popular with fringe conspiracy theorists.

Continue reading "The holy war on climate change" »

A lot of my comrades on the Left of politics are walking around as if the ascension of Tony Abbott is an early Christmas present, but I’m not so sure.

While some see the rise of the Mad Monk as the Tory version of Latham’s 2004 election car crash, I think the risk is we are gearing up for a re-run of the 1999 Republic referendum.

That was the ballot where Abbott, as executive director of the ‘No’ vote managed to convince battlers to keep the Queen as Head of State because the alternative would be to have the nation run by a bunch of wankers - like Malcolm Turnbull. A decade later and the Left is still coming to terms with the anti-elite backlash that the Republic Referendum – and arguably the 2001 Tampa election – unleashed.

Continue reading "Left should beware Tony Abbott’s war on wankers" »

Tony Abbott has rejected the dominant ETS paradigm. He says he wants, though, to re-balance business and household behaviour and incentives to move the economy to new, cleaner, climate adjustment technologies, but not cripple employment in key industries in the process.

Here’s one suggestion – turn payroll taxes into ‘climate adjustment’ levies, at neutral total cost to business. Then expand business and household rebates on all expenditure on green technology – tax avoidance based on positive, environmental citizenship.

Instead of taxing jobs – always a stupid tax arrangement – treat carbon emissions as an externality and turn the tax into a levy, but allow people to neutralise this levy only through investment in emission reduction technology.

Continue reading "Power to the people on an ETS - without a new tax" »

GetUp’s latest poll has found the public are hoping Tony Abbott will take the party down a progressive path.

It’s a big year for the Liberal Party of Australia. One hundred years ago, the Protectionist and Free Trade parties combined to offer voters an alternative to the Labor party.

Oppositions can be great force within our democracy. They can be the drivers of accountability and transparency, of new thinking and ambitious policy. And in a democracy where our major parties fight over just a small subset of the population (swinging voters), their power in influencing the Government of the day is certainly present.

Continue reading "Abbott’s challenge now is to renew the Liberal Party" »

When Tony Abbott snatched the leadership of the Liberal Party last week some commentators were quick to liken the sharp-tongued Member for Waringah to the former Member for Werriwa Mark Latham.

But with his blistering online attack on his own party and leader this morning Malcolm Turnbull looks to be the one headed for the remote compound with an electric fence.

While a shadow minister, Tony Abbott was never afraid of speaking bluntly in a manner that was at odds with Coalition policy. So as I am a humble backbencher I am sure he won’t complain if I tell a few home truths about the farce that the Coalition’s policy, or lack of policy, on climate change has descended into.

The usually articulate and verbose Mr Turnbull went on to describe Mr Abbott’s claim you can cut emissions without an ETS as “bullshit.” I think he’s blown a gasket.

Continue reading "What next - the Turnbull Diaries?" »

Update: The first Newspoll following Tony Abbott taking the Liberal leadership this morning shows the Opposition’s primary vote rising by 4 per cent to 38 per cent, with Tony Abbott’s preferred Prime Minister rating at 23 per cent. Kevin Rudd preferred PM support has dropped 5 points to 60 per cent with Labor still holding a 56-44 lead in the two party preferred vote.

While the weekend’s by-elections in Higgins and Bradfield were undoubtedly a good result for the Liberal Party, it’s hard to draw any other conclusion from them other than to say Liberals can still be elected in safe Liberal seats. 

It might be tempting for Liberals opposed to the ETS to argue that it puts paid to the claim the Government claims that Australians have an overwhelming desire for the introduction of the scheme, but being returned in safe seats formally occupied by the Treasurer and former opposition leader with no Labor candidate contesting isn’t exactly a litmus test on the national vibe.

Despite a swing of less than 1 per cent swing against her the new member of Higgins Kelly O’Dwyer wasn’t about to claim as much either when The Punch asked whether it was an endorsement of Tony’s Abbott’s stance.

Continue reading "What do we learn from the Liberal wins? Not much" »

Australia, congratulations. We now boast a brand new opposition leader from the far-Right, who proudly declared, say, eight or nine times in a single interview on Tuesday that he would not support climate change legislation, terming it a ‘big new tax’ on the Australian people.

So here we have the new political tactic of our Right- simple, snappy, and to the point- “that other lot want to TAX you!”

This tactic is nothing new, of course. Ben Chifley once observed that the Australian public ‘votes from the hip-pocket reflex’. The Right is simply banking that this is still the case.  Shrewd.

Continue reading "Can the West really be ‘taxed’ on climate?" »

There has been a lot of giddiness and hoopla surrounding the use of Twitter by journalists to cover the leadership ructions in the Liberal Party this past fortnight. It certainly made for high-energy reading – with its rawness and immediacy, it made the readers feel as if they were there as journalists passed on factoids from the mayhem and provided links to news and analysis of running events.

The downside of course was that it also gave tweeting journalists the ability to be 100 per cent wrong in real time – and I include myself among their number – where rumour and conjecture was shot into cyberspace, sending frantic packs of gallery journalists sprinting down corridors searching for a reputed Julie Bishop press conference, to find nothing but a Coke machine.

This real-time dissemination of both fact and fiction is an issue for the political parties head of next year’s election, where any degree of tail-chasing undermines their desire for a stage-managed and risk-averse passage through the campaign.

Continue reading "Web women unleash cyber hell on Holy Tony" »

As NSW Labor once again bury and dig up another leader in their pet cemetery of a cabinet to lead its army of walking dead, we see that Malcolm Turnbull has begun a bit of haunting of his own.

Yesterday’s cracking yarn by Annabel Crabb revealing angry emails sent by Malcolm Turnbull to Julie Bishop, accusing the deputy opposition leader of being hypocritical in her support for Tony Abbott, is evidence of the dangers of having an angry Malcolm Turnbull on the backbench. Combined with blogs and newsletters arguing that Abbott’s stand on the ETS is unworkable, one gets the feeling that Malcolm Turnbull could be dropping political cluster bombs from the backbench for a while yet.

So here’s a proposal that some NSW Liberals are seriously beginning to talk about: make Malcolm Turnbull the next Liberal Premier of NSW.

Continue reading "Cut the crap and make Malcolm the NSW Premier" »

Kevin Rudd will give Tony Abbott one last chance to vote for an emissions trading scheme or face a possible snap election in March/April.

Acting Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, has announced that the Government will recommit its defeated emissions trading scheme bills on February, 2, the first sitting day of 2010.
``It will come to the Parliament in February, we will seek passage of the bill, all options are on the table as to what will happen next,’’ she said.

The bills went down yesterday after a marathon 50 hour Senate debate. Two Liberal senators crossed the floor but the eleven bills still were defeated 33 to 41.
Labor’s strategy now, while not immediately obvious, is cleverly crafted to trap the freshly minted Mr Abbott between the devil and the deep blue sea.

Continue reading "Labor’s plan to let Abbott sweat it out over summer" »

What happened in the Liberal party room on Tuesday morning was above politics.  I’m hoping it was the start of a revolution, a signal that a large number of downtrodden, forgotten Australians are about to stand up and be heard. 

I’m talking about wing-nuts.  Tony Abbott is a wing-nut.  So am I.

Our ears are unique.  They come out of heads at a rather extreme angle.  If we’re not wearing budgie smugglers, our ears are the first thing that people look at when they look at us.

Continue reading "Abbott’s ascendancy a win for all people with big ears" »

Maybe it’s Tony Abbott’s own fault, and maybe he thinks it’s fantastic, but I’m a bit creeped out by the amount of attention being paid to the new Opposition Leader’s, um, assets.

Log on to any blog or social networking site in the past 36 hours and you’re likely to find as much in-depth analysis of Mr Abbott’s physical characteristics as his policy range. And I’m not talking about the size and shape of his ears.

While this might be a great boost to The Punch’s Question Time Live coverage - bring on the influx of stay-at-home-mums tuning into APAC at 2pm on sitting days - can you imagine what would happen if the same conversations were taking place about Julia Gillard?

Continue reading "Phwoar!!! Tony Abbott’s the full package. Wink wink." »

Malcolm Turnbull has left no-one in any doubt as to what he thinks about today’s defeat of the ETS with a blog entry on his website saying the Liberals have damaged the national interest - and themselves - by blocking the legislation.

It is a civil piece of writing, and in keeping with the position he doggedly stuck to this past week. But it has caught the attention of his party, which fears that Turnbull is so passionate about this issue that he could position himself as a booming voice of dissent from the backbench, keeeping the Liberals distracted and divided ahead of a poll fought over the ETS.

“Today the Senate rejected, for the second time, the Government’s emissions trading scheme legislation,” his entry began. “This is a very disappointing result, contrary to the national interest and the interest of the Liberal Party.”

Continue reading "Turnbull’s blog entry shows he won’t go quietly" »

There were lots of memorable lines in Tony Abbott’s first press conference as Liberal leader yesterday but there was one you can expect to hear repeatedly ahead of the next election, whenever that might be.

``Each and every interest rate rise over the next 12 months is due to the irresponsible spending spree of the Rudd government,’’ he said.

There you have it. Kevin Rudd is going to be made to own each and every 25 basis point rise in interest rates between now and the next election - including the latest one yesterday.

Continue reading "Here comes Tony" »

The Liberal Party’s 42 to 41 vote to strip the Opposition leadership from Malcolm Turnbull and hand it to Tony Abbott was a split decision in more ways than one.

The Liberal Party is now so badly divided that a distinct possibility exists that a group - possibly led by Malcolm Turnbull - will leave to establish their own party.

A split party is the price that is sometimes paid when ideology prevails over moderate, pragmatic politics - just ask anyone who was in the Labor Party during the 20th century.

Continue reading "Splitsville: could a new party result from Abbott’s purge?" »

The 1950s was an extraordinary decade. It produced John Howard’s values, Tony Abbott’s existence and Marty McFly’s parents.

It was an age in which men were men and women were women and Supreme Court judges were white. People knew who they were back then and if they didn’t people were friendly enough that you could ask somebody and they’d tell you. Back then you could take all the drugs you wanted, as long as you were a housewife and had a prescription. You do that these days and people say you’ve got a problem.

Yet into this staid world exploded a force with such style, dark good looks and raw sexual energy that the cultural landscape of the entire western world was to be changed forever. I speak of course of the DeLorean DMC 12, a sports car whose fame is only eclipsed by its poor on-road performance and sudden withdrawal from production.*

Continue reading "Joe’s $1-a-week cinema: The Tony Abbott tribute edition" »

She’s nothing if not loyal to the incumbent. Julie Bishop has just stood at the podium in the Liberal party room, just at the left shoulder of her third leader in two years. And she hasn’t just done with a straight face, she’s positively nailed it.

First she declared her absolutely loyalty to Brendan Nelson. When he was knocked off by Malcolm Turnbull Ms Bishop was again smoothly articulate in her declarations of support - and today, there she was again as Tony Abbott made his pitch for the next election. Deputies aren’t usually so resilient.

But Ms Bishop says she’s redefined the role of deputy leader of the Liberal Party, saying it’s not her job to angle for he boss’s downfall.

Continue reading "Is Julie Bishop the ultimate Stepford Deputy?" »

THE Labor Party is making a serious miscalculation if it tries to write off Tony Abbott as the Mad Monk, the Pope’s man in Canberra, a profanity-spouting bovver boy who is so socially conservative as to be unelectable.

It will also have to be careful not to attack him as the captive of lunatic elements over climate change. While there are undoubtedly plenty of nutty conspiracy theorists in the climate skeptic camp, there are also many thousands of well-adjusted but anxious Australians who simply do not believe that the Rudd Government has explained the need for such swift and dramatic action on climate change, especially when other bigger nations are doing nothing.

Tony Abbott’s victory in the Party Room is a microcosm of his potential electoral appeal at the national level. As Joe Hockey found out the hard way, you have to stand for something in politics.

Continue reading "Tony Abbott: I’ll slug it out" »

The emergence of Tony Abbott as Opposition leader is a major surprise. Many will assume it means a lurch to the right of the political spectrum.

This may be true. Only time will tell.

Clearly, the first impact, the likely defeat of the Government’s emissions trading scheme, looks to be a clear sign of that move.

Continue reading "Abbott vs Rudd, now this is what I call a choice" »

In 2007, members of the Federal Parliamentary Liberal and National Parties tried to convince themselves that the polls were wrong.

Despite months of poor polling, we clung to a belief that we would succeed at the election.

There was a disconnect between the polls and the ‘feeling’ in the electorate, members would proclaim.

Continue reading "Here is what Opposition is all about people" »

Tony Abbott may have emerged victorious from the Liberal party room today. And in doing so taken a large majority of the nation by surprise.

But it’s definitely going to be hard to forget his foray onto a Sydney beach last weekend. And you know, those Speedos.

So as his first act as leader The Punch would like to suggest the new Opposition Leader try these boardshorts as an alternative to his swimming attire this summer.

Continue reading "Boardies: the Punch’s gift to Slugger Abbott" »

In order to help people better understand the last week, an anonymous Liberal front bencher has made available excerpts of their private diary to comedians Matt Kenneally Toby Halligan for The Punch. This time we can reveal who voted “no” in the final leadership ballot.

MONDAY MORNING 30/11/09

Dreamed of Hawaii. Woke up in Canberra. Nightmare.

Still, happy – drama is over. Hockey almost leader.

Have Senate duty. Will be okay, have Dan Brown novel(s).

Continue reading "Secret diary of a Liberal MP Part II: Who voted “no”" »

The leadership of the Liberal Party will be decided today in Canberra. Punch editors will be posting news, commentary, pics and video as they come to hand here throughout the day. Times are AEDT. Refresh this page for updates.

5.29pm: David Speers of Sky News shares his thoughts in a blog post titled “The Abbott experiment”.

Joe Hockey isn’t rushing to the backbench so fast. He’s talking to Tony Abbott about whether he will stay as Shadow Treasurer. If he does, it will be difficult to show any unity on emissions trading.

In many ways this result may be a blessing in disguise for Joe Hockey. He’s still in the leadership mix, should Tony Abbott implode.

More here.

5.12pm: Bob Hawke, always worth quoting. Here’s what he said today, from AAP:

“I couldn’t have written a better script myself if I sat down and thought about it for, you know, months,” Mr Hawke told reporters.

“Seriously, I don’t want to gloat in the misfortunes of the opposition `cause I think it’s important in a democracy to have a reasonable and functioning opposition.

“They were making such a bloody mess of it I hope genuinely, to some extent, they get their act together.”

Asked what kind of leader Mr Abbott would make, Mr Hawke replied in one word: “temporary”.

4.39pm: More international coverage from the Wall Street Journal (Abbott could push Australia to the right) and Reuters (‘Mad monk’ Australia opposition head to fight CO2 laws).

4.38pm: Barnaby Joyce on Tony Abbott: “We’re looking at a person of immense capabilities here and now it’s a case of keeping the show together and give the Australian people a clear alternative to (Prime Minister Kevin) Rudd’s massive new tax.”

4.30 pm: Tony Abbot has told Channel 9 that he can’t guarantee that every senator “will do the right thing” when asked whether senators will cross the floor.

4.27pm: Julie Bishop says on Sky News she voted for Malcolm Turnbull in both leadership votes today.

4.19pm: What the nation is tweeting about this afternoon. From trendsmap.com

2.59pm: International reporting of the Liberal leadership change… Bloomberg reports:

Abbott, a former amateur boxer who trained as a priest, defeated ex-Goldman Sachs Group Inc. executive Malcolm Turnbull by 42 votes to 41 in a leadership ballot, party officials said in Canberra today. The contest capped a week of infighting after Turnbull’s support for Prime Minister Kevin Rudd emissions- trading plan split the opposition coalition.

And uses this quote:

“The public are absolutely appalled at the way in which the Liberals have conducted themselves,” said Nick Economou, a politics professor at Monash University in Melbourne. “They now have a leader who really polarizes the community. I cannot see how the coalition will win the next federal election.”

More from Bloomberg here.

Also reports from the BBC and the Wall Street Journal and AFP.

2.50pm: The Greens say they expect a vote on the ETS by the end of today in the Senate. “I don’t expect the government is going to filibuster, so I would think we’re heading for some determination later today,” Bob Brown told reporters in Canberra.

2pm: Abbott confirms end to flirting with Julia Gillard

1.54pm: ABC election analyst Anthony Green explains the possible election scenarios here.

1.18pm: New commentary now on The Punch ... David Penberthy on Tony Abbott, Tory Maguire on Julie Bishop, the Stepford deputy, Mark Kenny on implications for Labor, and Kevin Andrews on the role of the opposition.

Plus - we have a present for Tony Abbott: A pair of boardshorts. Worth 3 points in the polls, surely.

Continue reading "Live blog: Liberal leadership showdown in Canberra" »

Joe Hockey is about to make the biggest decision of his life.

It’s a decision which goes to the core of his very being. His reputation for decency. His determination to be remembered not as a clever politician who knew how to get ahead, but a person who entered public life to make a contribution to the greater good.

It’s a decision which also involves one of his best friends – Malcolm Turnbull, who today cast the moral dimensions of the dilemma facing his mate of 20 years as he decides whether to run for the Liberal Party leadership. “Joe and I are very good friends as you know,” Turnbull said. “We talk a lot, we have very similar views on most issues, our families are very close, he is a good man.”

Continue reading "Hockey’s choice is between personal and party loyalty" »

If Joe Hockey wins the leadership of the federal Liberal Party, the biggest loser will not be Malcolm Turnbull.

Nor will it be the government’s Emissions Trading Scheme.

It will be five-week-old Ignatius Theodore Babbage-Hockey.

Continue reading "Work life balance could be Joe’s greatest battle" »

While today the Liberal MPs are faced with a choice over whether or not they will allow the Government’s emissions trading bill through Parliament, they are faced with a more fundamental choice over the ideological direction the party now chooses to take. Given the unpredicatable nature of the last few days you’d have to be pretty brave to write (or right) off Malcolm Turnbull completely, but the leadership now seems to be a two horse race between Joe Hockey and Tony Abbott.

In choosing Tony Abbott as leader the party returns to a true Conservative party of the right making a clear demarcation from the moderate direction of Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership. Following the disastrous fallout from Utegate in August, Punch editor David Penberthy argued that it was Abbott’s conservative conviction politics that might actually be a bonus for Liberal Party as the next leader, pointing out that Australians are more likely to vote for somebody who they know stands for something.

At the time I argued that Joe Hockey was clearly the only choice for the role given that he was a unifying force between moderates and the right, and who’s avuncular and “average Joe” family man persona could be equally popular with the Australian people who aren’t ready to turn once again to Howard era conservatism. Importantly I argued, and still do, that even though Joe Hockey is very unlikely to win the next election for the Liberal Party he could limit damage while Tony Abbott could make the result worse. 

Here and here both pieces are republished debating the pros and cons of Abbott or Hockey becoming the new Liberal leader. What do you think?

We gave Malcolm a lend of the Party, but the members want it back.

This is the clear message I have received from Liberal Party members by way of 7,500 emails (and rising) and hundreds of phone calls – not to mention close encounters of the personal kind.

The claim that the Coalition Party Room agreed to support the Labor Party’s amended C.P.R.S. legislation imposing an E.T.S. Tax is not true. The Party Room rejected it.

Continue reading "Bronnie Bishop: Malcolm, we want our party back now" »

In order to help people better understand the last week, an anonymous Liberal front bencher has made available excerpts of their private diary to comedians Matt Kenneally Toby Halligan.

MONDAY 23/11/09 MORNING

Booked holiday flights to Hawaii for Friday evening.

ETS bill before senate tomorrow. Still don’t understand it.

Air conditioning was playing up. Stood in front of fridge for a while and felt better.

Continue reading "Secret diary extracts of a confused Liberal MP" »

After a week when the Liberals took decisive action to reduce their political footprint Joe Hockey is sitting snugly between ‘Someone Else’ and ‘Don’t Know’ as the preferred Liberal leader.

If politics really is Hollywood for ugly people, then this week’s Essential Report shows Joe is about to slip on the political swimsuit and start strutting his stuff by default.

The polling confirms what we all supected – the nation is over Malcolm Turnbull, it can’t abide Tony Abbott and it doesn’t really know who Julie Bishop or Andrew Robb are. As for Kevin Andrews, like his own party, we didn’t bother to ask. This leaves just three credible options for the Liberals: Don’t Know, Someone Else and Joe Hockey.

Continue reading "The only beauty contest that Joe Hockey will ever win" »

The next 24 hours are critical for the bitterly divided Liberal Party. The Punch’s Tory Maguire is in Canberra and the team will be posting updates here through the day. Times are AEDT. Refresh this page for updates.

7.21pm: If he is elected as leader tomorrow, Abbott will ask for the ETS to be deferred, and if not deferred, rejected. “The party has a clear choice. It can vote for Malcolm and we will support the legislation. It can vote for me and we will reject the legislation. Or they can vote for Joe and we’ll have a conscience vote”.

7.19pm: Tony Abbott says he’s spent most of the day in discussions with Joe, says…

“It now seems pretty clear we could change the leader to Joe and these offensive bills could still go through the parliament. I will be a candidate for the leadership tomorrow.”

7.17pm: Ian “Macca” Macfarlane says he’s in the dark - “they’re not telling me anything”

7pm: Nick Minchin has just released this statement:

Speculation tonight by Laurie Oakes on Channel 9 news that I support the proposition that Labor’s CPRS Bill pass through the Senate upon a change of leadership are inaccurate. I continue to support the proposition that the Bill should be referred to a Senate Inquiry, to report back after the Copenhagen conference.

6.35pm: ABC news reporting the deal to install Hockey as leader includes Liberal Senators being allowed a conscience vote on the ETS, meaning it would pass. But David Speers at Sky says it’s being discussed, no decision yet.

6.10pm: Nine’s Laurie Oakes says there’s mutterings Nick Minchin may agree to pass the ETS tomorrow once Turnbull is gone as leader.

5.52am: Back in the Senate - 70 amendments done, only 140 to go. By the time it’s complete Parliament House could have ocean views.

5.45pm: Now reported Family First Senator Steve Fielding is in Joe Hockey’s office with Mr Hockey, Nick Minchin and Peter Dutton - discussing the Royal Commission? Probably not.

4:59pm: AAP reports key figures from the left and right are meeting to sort things out before tomorrow’s meeting. Meeting in Joe Hockey’s office reportedly includes: Federal Liberal Party director Brian Loughnane, and MPs Greg Hunt, Christopher Pyne, Andrew Robb, Nick Minchin, Julie Bishop, Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton.

4.49pm: Bronwyn Bishop writes for The Punch: Malcolm, we want the leadership back please.

4.40pm: Audio of Turnbull’s press conference live now, courtesy of Sky News. Listen here.

3.49pm: Reports on Turnbull’s doorstop at The Australian, The Age, and The Daily Telegraph. From Malcolm Farr at the Tele:

Mr Turnbull was careful in how he explained the outcome of his leadership meeting with Mr Hockey this afternoon.

He said: “He (Mr Hockey) said he would support me in the spill movement. He said he would vote against the spill.”

3.46pm: Steve Fielding walked into the media scrum immediately after Turnbull had finished speaking and called for a Royal Commission into climate science. Seriously.

3.37pm: Recap: Turnbull says Hockey has assured him of his support in a vote on a leadership spill in the partyroom tomorrow morning. If the partyroom votes to declare the leadership vacant, then Turnbull says he will stand for re-election. It is still unclear if Hockey will run against Turnbull but he is widely expected to.

A strong line of argument Hockey could use is that with Turnbull’s leadership doomed, it is Hockey’s duty as a committed moderate to run against right-winger Tony Abbott.

3.36pm: From Turnbull:

Joe came to see me for a chat.

We actually had a meeting on the weekend that didn’t make it into the press because neither of us rang up a journalist beforehand.

Joe and I are very good friends.

Continue reading "As it happened: the Liberal Party’s mad Monday" »

A roundup of key coverage from this morning’s newspapers and websites is over the jump.

Continue reading "Reading roundup: Liberal leadership showdown" »

IT is almost two months to the day since Malcolm Turnbull defiantly proclaimed he could not lead a party that failed to act on climate change.

It could well be his epitaph because it looks increasingly likely they will be his famous last words. His war-like comments in a radio interview on October 1 will come back to haunt him tomorrow when a leadership challenge is expected to try to finally resolve the Liberal Party’s internal angst and division over the Emissions Trading Scheme.

Aside from internal manoeuvrings and mutinous rumblings within the party, the Liberals have a bigger problem. They are sending mixed signals to the electorate about where they stand on climate change and this is worse than death by a thousand swords for a party hoping to win Government at the next election.

Continue reading "Confusion reigns online over ETS and the Liberal Party" »

With the Liberal Party’s rolling leadership crisis set to be resolved one way or another on Tuesday, the Sunday talk shows could have been twice their usual length this week but the hours of analysis would never be able to say as much as this photograph in the morning papers.

As The Sunday Telegraph reported, Joe Hockey went to considerable lengths to avoid being placed at John Howard’s Sydney home, circling the suburbs of North Sydney and pausing in his car before going inside. Also in the paper was a Galaxy poll showing Hockey and Turnbull neck-and-neck as preferred Liberal leaders by a considerable margin over Tony Abbott, but it also found widespread public opposition to the immediate passage of the ETS (you can see it here as a PDF).

But from the morning talk shows, two key points. First, the relationship between Hockey and Turnbull is now pivotal. And second, what happens on Tuesday’s remains anyone’s guess.

Continue reading "Libs in crisis: Sunday talk shows round-up" »

THERE is a hilarious moment in the Hitchhikers’s Guide to the Galaxy when it is explained to one of the last remaining humans, Arthur Dent, that things are not what they seemed.

Shattering his life-long assumptions following the Earth’s destruction - that’s intergalactic progress - a higher being explains to the hapless Dent, that all those white mice in labs that humans thought were part of various experiments, were in fact, conducting an experiment on us. Humans were not as wise as they thought and now, their planet had been obliterated to make way for a hyperspace bypass.

I thought of this on two counts in recent days. First, there is the parallel with what Malcolm Turnbull, has been telling his troops: do nothing about climate change and the Earth as we know, will be destroyed.

Continue reading "Libs adrift in a hostile galaxy" »

Australians expect their political leaders and their political parties to take effective action on climate change because it is an important issue for them and their children.

The Opposition has always had significant concerns with the Rudd Government’s CPRS legislation. That is why we fought for changes to the proposed scheme, to improve its design and protect Australian jobs.

As a result of the changes secured by the Opposition, tens of thousands of Australian jobs have been saved, farmers have been protected by permanently excluding agriculture from the scheme, $1.1 billion in direct support to small and medium businesses will be delivered, and the threat of blackouts and interruptions to the electricity supply has been removed.

Continue reading "Climate debate a turning point in Liberal Party history" »

Bizarrely enough I just bumped into Malcolm Turnbull. And despite the chaos unfolding around him, he looked relaxed and happy. Asked if it was all over, he said: “No, far from it.”

The Opposition Leader was lunching at Tabou, a terrific French restaurant in Surry Hills, Sydney, honouring a long-standing date with a bunch of senior journalists from The Australian. I was grabbing a quick bite with a mate and bumped into the Opposition Leader at the top of the stairs. He was scathing in his assessment of the Right’s tactics over the CPRS.

“What they have done is like political terrorism. They have basically tried to blow up the party,” he said.

Continue reading "Relaxed and at lunch, Turnbull says he’ll survive" »

The battle for the leadership of the Liberal Party is now looking more like a contest for a high school SRC as Joe Hockey turns to social media to ask people what he should do over the ETS - and by default, whether he should shaft Malcolm Turnbull. He also wrote on Twitter today: “Hey team re The ETS. Give me your views please on the policy and political debate. I really want your feedback.”

Social media tragics will hail this as a ground-breaking moment in participatory democracy. Others - I’d call them “almost everybody”  - will just shake their heads in disbelief that the alternative government of Australia has been reduced to tweeting the punters for help as its most senior members become paralysed by panic, opportunism and expediency.

A quick stocktake of where things are at with the leadership:

Continue reading "Joe’s Facebook folly makes Libs look like bigger Twits" »

The honour of being elected as a member of the Federal Parliament carries with it very serious responsibilities.  Each of us are charged with seeking to do what is right, to listen to the views of our constituents, to represent the political parties that endorsed us, and ultimately determine what is in the nation’s interest. 

My decision to resign from the Shadow Ministry yesterday is one I did not take lightly. I felt compelled to do so because I reached the conclusion that it is not in Australia’s interests to support Labor’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). 

This is a position which was only strengthened by the fact that there was a clear majority in the Coalition Party Room in favour of voting against this legislation, despite what our leader concluded.

Continue reading "Why I quit shadow ministry and won’t back Labor’s ETS" »

THE so-called “Turnbull experiment”, which many Liberals entered into only reluctantly when Brendan Nelson imploded, is over.

The party that briefly departed from the divisive politics of John Howard, now looks to be lurching back to the right. This is a classic sucker move induced by the success of the centrist Kevin Rudd phenomenon.

There, on the right, it will find ideological purity but little or no scope for electoral success. The federal Liberal Party has just adopted a recipe for failure so popular in numerous state-based Liberal oppositions who are similarly unelectable.

Continue reading "Turnbull experiment is over - are the Libs over too?" »

7.32pm: Tomorrow will be another huge day in Canberra, with Malcolm Turnbull clinging frantically to his position and the Government desperate to get the CPRS through the Senate before Kevin Rudd meets with US President Barack Obama early next week. We’ll be continuing our coverage of this extraordinary political story in the morning. For in-depth news coverage tonight got to The Australian.

7.30pm: Government Leader in the House Anthony Albanese says that under an agreement made with Malcolm Turnbull the CPRS will be voted on by 3.45pm tomorrow. There will not be a motion to move a guillotine of the debate tonight.

7.10pm: Malcolm Turnbull is standing firm. He has just told a press conference “this is about the future of our planet and the future of our children, and their children… this is about risk management… saying we’re not going to do anything about climate change is irresponsible.” He said the CPRS had the support of the “overwhelming majority” of the Coalition partyroom. “Most people who doubt the science also know that it makes sense to take out insurance… I believe we must maintain this course of action… I am committed to it, we must be a party committed to action on climate change.”

Continue reading "Live blog: The Malcolm Bligh Turnbull mutiny" »

Update 5.15pm: Tony Abbott has just held a press conference where he said he and Nick Minchin have told Malcolm Turnbull the CPRS Bill should be delayed until next year. “Malcolm was unprepared to reconsider,” Mr Abbott said. He then confirmed he would quit the shadow cabinet. “This is a very difficult decision for me.” He also said: “This isn’t a leadership issue at all, it is a policy issue.” He refused to confirm or deny there have been any discussions about a leadership challenge with his colleagues. “I don’t know what might happen in the next few days.”

Speculation is rife Tony Abbott is considering quitting the front bench in the next 24 hours, and could be preparing to make a tilt at knocking off Malcolm Turnbull from his precarious leadership perch.

What this would achieve for the Liberals, or for voters, is very unclear. While the Coalition generally only thrives under a conservative leader, it’s impossible to see how that would happen under Abbott.

Continue reading "What is he thinking?" »

The Liberals are currently staggering around the corridors in Parliament House like a bomb has gone off. In political terms it kind of has. The past 36 hours has smashed Malcolm Turnbull’s authority, failed to produce a viable alternative candidate for the leadership, transformed manageable differences of opinion into bitter personal hatreds, left the frontbench a mess with three resignations already and possibly more to come, not to mention a looming reshuffle just to add further fire to an already incendiary situation.

Liberal MPs are openly talking about their sadness at the way the whole thing crashed around their ears. They are worried about their seats and had wanted one of two things to happen - to achieve a quiet consensus on a CPRS deal and to quietly pass the legislation, or for the talks with the Rudd Government to fail and to vote against it. Instead they have got open internal warfare.

Their biggest fear is how it will play out with traditional Liberal Party voters who cannot fathom the logic of what the party has done in embracing a lose-lose situation, whereby people who believe in climate change will give full credit to the Government for introducing a CPRS, while people who do not believe in climate change will punish the Opposition for backing it.

Continue reading "Grass roots revolt the biggest fear for battered Libs" »

Malcolm Turnbull has survived to fight another Question Time. At a Liberal Party meeting this afternoon a motion, moved by Wilson Tuckey, to spill the leadership was defeated in a secret ballot 48-35.

This result denied Kevin Andrews the chance to make his own run at the leadership. It does, however, mean that 35 MPs in the Liberal Party room expressed their wish to be given the chance to dump Mr Turnbull. The Opposition Leaders still faces the herculean task of getting some kind of cohesion in his party on the CPRS.

You can see our blow by blow coverage after the jump.

Continue reading "Question Time Live: 25/11/09" »

Last night Malcolm Turnbull announced his party’s support for the ETS bill with the resigned cheerfulness of a man who knows his days are numbered.

He looked more like a defeated leader at the end of a campaign thanking his supporters than someone who had just prevailed over the Opposition old guard.

It was a pyrrhic victory and nothing he said could disguise that fact.

Continue reading "Malcolm Turnbull: ideology’s latest victim" »

Malcolm Turnbull has retained his position as leader of the Liberal Party after winning a secret ballot on a motion to spill the leadership by 48-35. Punch editors will be posting the latest developments, commentary, pictures and video here as they come to hand. Times are AEDT. Refresh this page for updates.

4pm: Question Time over, the Libs limped their way through it the poor sods, they looked like a footy team that had just got thumped in the GF. Read our coverage of the day unfolded below. I will post a new piece later today wrapping up Turnbull’s two days of hell, and his future from here.

1.55pm: Time for Question Time. The Punch will be covering it live here - join in, should be fun.

1.50pm: Battered Libs limping their way towards chamber for QT. One MP just told me this is their equivalent of DLP split. Total and unabiding fury between the two camps. MPs also talking up hockey as best consensus candidate for leadership change in new year.

1.41pm: News round-ups of the events at the partyroom meeting now available at news.com.au and The Australian.

1.33pm: It’s certainly a better result than yesterday on the CPRS - but it won’t give Turnbull any security. Almost half the party still out to get him…

1.31pm: Joe Hockey speaking after the meeting. “Clearly this issue has done us incredible damage and I hope the Australian people forgive us…”. Emphasises the Liberal Party is a progressive party. Says given the mood of the party the 48-35 result was a good result for Turnbull.

1.29pm: It’s understood Joe Hockey was sounded out by the right for leadership on condition he opposed the CPRS. Said he’s not interested in starting his leadership career by selling his soul.

1.28pm: Kevin Andrews says he accepts the result of the ballot, but 35 is a significant number in the party room, which makes a strong point about the position on the CPRS. He says of Turnbull: “of course he has my support, he’s the leader of the party.”

1.23pm: No spill. Motion lost 48-35 in a secret ballot.

1.14pm: Cannot find a single Lib who is taking Kevin Andrews’ candidacy seriously or as a genuine threat. With Abbott not in the mix Turnbull shouldn’t get rolled.

1.13pm: Parliament security, at the request of the Opposition Leader’s office, are preventing journalists from congregating near the party room. Not sure why, as people inside the meeting will text developments to the press gallery anyway.

12.56pm: Samantha Maiden of The Australian writes on Twitter: turnbull has just walked into office with dep COS credlin. looks really upset

Continue reading "Live blog: Liberals in crisis" »

Highlights from this morning’s newspaper coverage of the Liberal leadership turmoil.

The Australian
Lead story: MALCOLM Turnbull last night threatened to quit the Liberal leadership ... Kevin Andrews, who has declared himself a leadership candidate, will today confirm his intention to stand against Mr Turnbull ... It is understood frontbencher Tony Abbott will also stand but Treasury spokesman Joe Hockey reportedly will not. Read it here.
Matthew Franklin: How Turnbull staged his own destruction
Dennis Shanahan: Leader enters the dead zone
Peter van Onselen: Turnbull now leader in name only

Continue reading "Reading roundup: Turnbull’s leadership in turmoil" »

HIS voice hoarse and breaking from arguing his case over 12 hours of solid meetings, a haggard Malcolm Turnbull declared “I’m the leader” six times last night at a defiant but probably futile press conference aimed at asserting his authority over a political party which is split almost exactly in half.

By the end of the press conference he looked like a doomed man, almost resigned to his likely demise as he faces betrayal by members of Shadow Cabinet, abandonment by the National Party, with almost half the party now canvassing a leadership spill as early as this Thursday - or protracted sniping ahead of his execution at a later date.

The press conference started in bullish fashion. Flanked by deputy leader Julie Bishop and chief climate negotiator Ian Macfarlane, Mr Turnbull declared he had won “overwhelming” party support for his deal with Kevin Rudd over the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme.

Rubbish, rebel MPs were saying to reporters via SMS and in corridor chats, explaining that 40 MPs had spoken against the package and just 33 in favour - and that Mr Turnbull had inflated the numbers by arbitrarily including Shadow Cabinet in its entirety in the yes camp, getting him the paltriest possible majority at 47 to 46.

Continue reading "Last plea of a doomed man" »

UPDATE 8.20pm: Total chaos as meeting ends, set to resume at 8am tomorrow, strong talk that he will be challenged, massive press pack outside Party Room, Turnbull apparently has 41 MPs behind his ETS Plan and 33 against, MPs saying it is not a strong enough mandate to back the ETS, Turnbull has apparently blown up inside meeting, says nothing to press on way out. More to follow.

Update 8.15pm: Sky News reports the back bench vote actually came out 41-33 against the CPRS, but Turnbull declared with the shadow ministers he could get a majority in favour. According to David Speers he made this announcement while some Senators were outside the room. To say they’re unhappy is an understatement.

Update 8pm: Apparently the No vote disputes the party room numbers on the CPRS and are going to move a leadership spill. Kevin Andrews confirms he would put his hand up if the spill gets up.

Update 7.40pm: Malcolm Turnbull says he’s won the support he needs in the Coalition party room. But they’re reconvening at 8pm and there’s rumours of a leadership spill.

Update 5.10 pm: Perhaps not surprisingly Tuckey couldn’t get enough hands up for his motion.

Update 4.50pm: Wilson Tuckey has just moved for a spill of the leadership in the party room. The motion won’t get up without a majority show of hands. But it’s sure to make Malcolm Turnbull’s day just that much worse.

Continue reading "Next two hours could seal Malcolm Turnbull’s fate" »

Update 10:55am: Shadow Cabinet signed off this morning on Malcolm Turnbull’s deal with the Government over the CPRS, and it is now being debated by the Coalition Party Room.

No. But he’s the Right Faction’s stalking horse should Malcolm Turnbull falter in his handling of the CPRS - which in the eyes of the more skeptical and conservative Libs he is already doing. And if there is a blow-up in the Party Room today, Kevin Andrews is expected to run for the leadership.

In what is looming as a chaotic and unpredictable day, the Right Faction is positioning itself to inflict a potentially mortal wound on Turnbull by moving a spill in protest at his excessive concessions over the carbon pollution reduction scheme.

Kevin Andrews is not the Right’s preferred candidate - but he is the one who has volunteered to go over the top on behalf of the party’s conservatives. He told SkyNews ominously yesterday that “At the moment we have a leader but I am a loyal servant of the party and I will do any job that I am asked to do,” Mr Andrews told Sky News.

Continue reading "Is this the next Leader of the Liberal Party?" »

If they weren’t busy washing their hair, watching paint dry or rubbing lard on the cat’s boil, more Australians would have got along to the small soiree in Canberra earlier this month to commemorate the 10th anniversary of the failed republican referendum.

The event was entitled “Ten years on, it’s time to mend the nation’s heart”, taking its cue from Malcolm Turnbull’s pointed referendum night sledge against his eventual boss, Prime Minister John Howard, over his allegedly sinister role in skewering the yes vote.

A small ceremony was held on the lawns of Parliament House in Canberra – Canberra being a terrifically appropriate choice as, from all the states and territories, the ACT was on its own in voting yes - where a statement was read urging both sides of politics to revisit the case for constitutional change.

Continue reading "Republican nation bored into apathy by republicans" »

UNLESS Malcolm Turnbull is Harry Houdini, he is about to join the likes of John Hewson as another `almost was’ wealthy businessman who promised much but ultimately could not manage the politics.

Things could hardly have gone worse for him this week. Just when he had the Government under real pressure over its faltering management of the Oceanic Viking crisis, problems on his own side overwhelmed him. Next week looks harder again.

He must be wondering why he left a perfectly successful career in business for this. He may not be wondering for much longer.

Continue reading "Holding our breath to see if Malcolm survives" »

Most of the action took places after Question Time yesterday, but the tension between the Government and Opposition continues to grow. You can see our Question Time coverage after the jump.

Continue reading "Question Time Live: 18/11/09" »

With another boat load of asylum seekers intercepted and reports there are at least 10 Coalition MPs vowing to cross the floor on the ETS there’s plenty happening in Federal Parliament. You can see our Question Time coverage after the jump.

Continue reading "Question Time Live: 17/11/09" »

I am wiping the egg off my face this morning. Last week I happily wrote off Newspoll’s recent findings of a drop in support for Rudd as a blip and then along comes this week’s Essential Report showing there is, indeed, something going on.

The fall we have picked up may not be as spectacular as Newspoll’s but we are beginning to see movement away from Labor, especially among older Australians.

A four-point fall in two party preferred vote is beyond margin for error and could mean one of three things: (i) Newspoll was right all along (albeit a little over-cooked);  (ii) Newspoll was wrong but the world has caught up with their error; or (iii) we have a blip to match Newspoll’s.

Continue reading "I love the taste of egg in the morning" »

The former Democrats Senator Andrew Murray, one of the driving forces behind today’s apology to the “Forgotten” Australians recently told Kevin Rudd that while many apologies had been made by state governments, churches and charities to the children abused and neglected in care in this country “some were better apologies than others.”

There was a pretty strong sense in the Great Hall of Parliament House this morning that this apology was one of the “better” ones, how ever you might define it.

For a start you could hear it. “Sconey”, 40, from South Australia, told The Punch when the SA Government apologised the speakers didn’t work.

Continue reading "What makes a good apology?" »

This week YouTube claimed the scalp of Malcolm Turnbull staffer Thomas Tudehope after he allegedly helped disseminate a Hitler parody video in which Federal MP Alex Hawke is portrayed as an irate Adolf Hitler.

It didn’t take long for the supposedly anonymous Downfall meme to catch the media’s attention, and by then it was only a matter of time before the creative talent behind it was exposed. Not helped in any way by a comprehensive email chain leaked to the media linking Tudehope and another Liberal staffer Charles Perrottet to the short film.

But with revelations that Tudehope had to resign over the issue, maybe it’s time for a little lesson for young staffers, press secretaries and politico wannabes out there who seem to think Web 2.0 is all fun and no responsibility. Sure it’s all a bit of a lark now and then, but when pre-selections, votes and political cred are at stake, there’s nowhere to hide. And seriously, who wants to lose their job in this economic climate?

Continue reading "Five tips to avoid downfall by social media" »

Evidence is now mounting that last week’s Newspoll poll showing a seven point drop in Labor support was a rogue result, with Essential Research’s weekly tracking showing no movement in the two-party preferred vote.

The Essential Report, that has Labor comfortably ahead 59-41, follows on the heels of Monday’s Herald/Nielson poll that was also steady.

Beneath the headline figures there are some intriguing sub-plots, with the public going close to welcoming the increase in interest rates, while continuing to rate the Prime Minister down on his handling of the asylum seeker issue.

Continue reading "It’s a blip – Rudd maintains lead with interest" »