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Will the next Australian PM please stand up?

Malcolm Farr

by Malcolm Farr

23 May 06:00am

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Filed under: Asylum Seekers, Carbon Pricing, Carbon Tax, Climate Change, Ets

163 comments

This week in federal politics might in later years be seen as decisive to the elevation of the next Prime Minister of Australia.

Cartoon: Mark Knight

That’s because the Government will have to deal publicly and intensely with the two principal issues shaping its fate – border protection and carbon pricing.

The Opposition will launch a demand for a wide-ranging inquiry into the cost and administration of detention facilities and of asylum seeker management generally, starting with the no-holds-barred premise that the centres are now places of “havoc, chaos and riots”.

Second, the Government will be pressed for signs of progress from the dragging discussions on introduction of a carbon price, still underway in the multi-party committee.

The pressure will come with today’s release of the Climate Commission’s report, The Critical Decade: Climate Science, Risks and Responses. 

The committee says remedial steps have to be taken with a certain urgency. So the Government will be asked more intensely: What are you doing?

There might be just two issues - but the leadership equation is much more complex.

If Julia Gillard endures on climate policy and, as she forecast at the weekend, by July next year the carbon price is installed without calamity prevailing, she will have a stronger chance at the subsequent election.

However, Tony Abbott will not. A Labor victory on a market-based carbon price would enhance the chances of Malcolm Turnbull leading the Liberal Party and of perhaps becoming the next Coalition Prime Minister.

A defeat on climate policy would limit Abbott’s expectations for elevation. After all, he was put in to replace Turnbull because of his position on the issue. He has banked almost everything on winning this fight.

Abbott effectively made a deal with his party that he would use climate change to win them back power.

An Abbott loss would not automatically mean a Turnbull renewal.

If the Government continues to suffer seriously on asylum seeker management, Liberal Scott Morrison, who has been so politically effective in this debate, will strengthen his chances of leading his party.

Morrison is not challenging Abbott in thought, word or deed. But he is no doubt well aware of his advantages as a relative outsider in a limited field.

Turnbull, too, is chaste in his leadership intentions and should be believed when he says he expects Abbott to lead the Coalition into the next election, and probably win it.

So much for the Liberals. Whatever their internal tensions – and there is a growing number – they are a placid pool when compared to Labor.

The immediate problem for Gillard is that the most distinctive and influential voices on climate change and border protection are coming from the Opposition, not from Labor’s ranks.

To a significant degree that is because many voters have stopped listening to Julia Gillard. It’s not the accent or the voice. It’s because of the gap between the promise and the delivery.

For example, the Government says Malaysia will take unprocessed boat people; Malaysia says there is no deal yet.

The lack of credibility means it has taken Malcolm Turnbull to point out that the Opposition’s Direct Action plan for reducing carbon emissions – in which industries would be given money by taxpayers to get clean – would cost billion and billions over many years.

Meanwhile, those keen to know the next step in the Government’s climate change agenda have stopped asking the Government. They are listening more to the Greens.

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163 comments

Show oldest | newest first

    • Erick says:

      06:10am | 23/05/11

      Cue the rush of rusted-on Labor voters saying how much they love Malcolm Turnbull ....

      Reply

    • Joan says:

      07:34am | 23/05/11

      Malcolm Turnbull, Abbotts lapdog according to Doug Cameron, Turnbull like a lap dog for personal self interest   jumped to the goad and taunt by Cameron   Turnbull is not the leader Australia needs. ....a leader that follows anybody`s whistle. Labor just love Turnbull… easily lured from the main game in persuit of self interest. Its not about Australia its about Turnbull as far as Turnbull is concerned.

    • Paul C says:

      07:45am | 23/05/11

      Are there any rusted-on Labor voters left Erick? I know the traditionalists are a mob of brain dead sheep, but surely not that blind.

    • No 1 Rosie says:

      07:56am | 23/05/11

      Erick

      I love your one liners, bit like Tony Abbott’s 3 word slogans. I will have to adopt it as I am wasting too much of my time blogging repeating myself.

      Keep up the good work, you are good and your one liners mean a thousand words.

      I wish ‘sad sack, it could have been me’ Turnbull would go over to the Labor Party as they seem to love him so much.

      Sorry Mr Farr, have stopped listening to Gillard, all negative talk and no positive action.

      How about telling us of the failed Labor conference at the weekend when the only applause Gillard received was when she ridicule Tony Abbott as being the love child of Sarah Pallin and Donald Trump. Thank goodness it was her saying it and not Tony Abbott.

    • Adam says:

      08:20am | 23/05/11

      It’s not just rusted-on Labor, it’s people that wish there was a better alternative than a conservative ‘Liberal’ party.

    • Tom says:

      08:47am | 23/05/11

      Very good call Erick. Didn’t Labor just love Turnbull. Transparently greedy, egotistical and anyone’s.

    • nossy says:

      08:51am | 23/05/11

      @No 1 Rosie good moring Rosie - now you talk about Abbotts 3 word slogans - do you mean “ummm ummm ummmm ” or “no no no ” ? Cant think of any others my dear Rosie ? P.S wasnt that Badger naughty yesterday for suggesting you were blogger “Joan” and others !  hahaha

    • Charles says:

      08:54am | 23/05/11

      What Malcolm (Farr) has missed is that the direct action plan is only a plan to get us to the 5% reduction point by 2020.  As has been pointed out by Tony Abbott et al., is that if you want to make deeper cuts then you have to change the policy at some point, something he has not argued against doing.

      However, it would appear that our Canberra Press Gallery, while normally regarded as expert in detecting every subtle nuance in what our pollies are saying, mysteriously seem to have missed this critical disclaimer.

      How could that happen?

    • persephone says:

      09:17am | 23/05/11

      Just as they seem to have missed, Charles, that the Coalition’s Direct Action plan rests on unachievable outcomes from soil carbon sequestration.

      The dairy industry, for example, have stated that they’d need to get $200 a ton to simply cover costs. The Coalition’s proposal pays them $15.

      And to achieve the kind of outcomes the Coalition wishes to achieve through soil carbon sequestration - which they rely on to achieve about two thirds of their savings - 65% of Australia’s land mass would need to be utilised.

      So the major plank of Direct Action is not only not achievable, it’s unaffordable - and yet the media treats is as a seious option.

    • Sony B Goode says:

      09:33am | 23/05/11

      The only cut we need to make is separating progressives from other people’s money

    • Jim says:

      09:33am | 23/05/11

      @nossy - Badger’s accusing someone of having more than one identity on The Punch???? Badger????

      @Erick - I think they’re all at Crikey - no one on that site to tell the truth and burst their little bubbles. Persephone’s always a bit late on Mondays, awaiting her instructions for the week from her employers I’d imagine.

    • Adam says:

      10:22am | 23/05/11

      I always laugh when I hear a rusted on Labor voter say “I’d vote liberal if Turnball was in charge”. Aside from the fact the net change in votes has been very positive under Abbott, rusted on Labor voters of all people should know you vote for a party, not a leader.

    • Sherlock says:

      10:53am | 23/05/11

      Hey persephone for once you’re completely correct it is a dumb plan. However the government’s relies almost entirely of CSS which is just as dumb. So how about we agree they are both just window dressing to satisfy the ever dwindling band of climate change believers.

      As for the new tax being accepted, as climate change scepticism continues to grow as all the alarmists future predictions fail just as badly as their past ones did, all the opposition has to do is point out the billons of dollars in new tax that Australians are paying to achieve absolutely nothing about a problem they don’t believe exists anyway. Any politician that can’t sell that certainly should be in cabinet.

    • PTom says:

      11:18am | 23/05/11

      Sherlock

      What new tax would you be paying?
      As the so-called Carbon Tax is only applied to the top 1000 emitters.

      When the Liberals get in and scrap the billions from mining profit tax, where do you think they will get money to pay for their plans?

    • acotrel says:

      11:31am | 23/05/11

      ’ the Government will have to deal publicly and intensely with the two principal issues shaping its fate – border protection and carbon pricing.’

      Abbott is a trend-setter.  His scare-mongering will be copied forever, it’s a technique now proven to get results. In the past it used to be mainly about ‘reds under the beds’, now it’s every issue.

    • persephone says:

      11:32am | 23/05/11

      Sherlock

      no, the government’s plan relies almost entirely on market forces to drive down emissions.

      The CCS is just a bit of wishful thinking….because, if it worked, it would be SOOOOO nice.

      Basically, if it worked, coal would still be cheaper than nuclear with similar waste issues, so anyone who advocates nuclear should think CCS is a brilliant idea.

      I think CCS would be brilliant if it worked, but I have really really big huge doubts about it.

      So just as well the government is only playing with it….(and if it pays off, well, that would be terrific…)

      Now, that post is confused enough to give people an idea of how seductive CCS is as a concept, however flawed it (might be) in practice!

    • acotrel says:

      11:37am | 23/05/11

      @Adam
      ‘It’s not just rusted-on Labor, it’s people that wish there was a better alternative than a conservative ‘Liberal’ party.’
      I agree that conservatism is probably the most unpleasant aspect of the Libs, and TA.  Most of us love to get on a nostalgia trip, the danger lies in missed opportunities.
      The fifties have passed, let’s get on with the future?

    • Seano says:

      11:44am | 23/05/11

      Cue the rush of rusted-on Liberal voters saying how Malcolm Turnbull is really a Labor party plant ....

      Apparently Joe Hockey is next. Democracy conservative style seems to now mean conforming to a narrow far right wing world view… or else.

    • Sherlock says:

      11:54am | 23/05/11

      PTom says:: What new tax would you be paying?
      As the so-called Carbon Tax is only applied to the top 1000 emitters.

      For a second there I thought you were actually being serious. Then I realised that nobody could be THAT stupid.

    • Deepthinker says:

      12:27pm | 23/05/11

      Doug Cameron stuffed up England aqnd he will do the same here aided by a female who has absolutely no conception of how the poor in Australia are struggling to make ends meet.

    • whatever says:

      12:40pm | 23/05/11

      Shite. Although I vote Libs, now I can’t say I like Turnbull or Erik will go nah nah nah nah you vote Labor….. If only I learnt the way out of this conundrum in the playground.

    • No 1 Rosie says:

      12:53pm | 23/05/11

      Good morning Nosthow,

      Stay with me Nosthow as I am running out of, friends, relatives and anyone who is willing to listen to me about politics. I was always very keen to show off my political knowledge gained here (Punch) in the beginning when your Goddess of Smart Talk became our first female PM. I was admired for my knowledge, interest and how update I was with everything happening in the political arena. The interest was definitely there and people were prepared to listen.

      Today, Nosthow I am ashamed to bring up politics because people just turn off and say we are sick of Julia Gillard and the best thing for Australia is for us to have another election. I am alone and have to come to Punch to get my political fix. Please don’t desert me. I can at least call you, a Labor supporter my blogging friend.

      So you see, Erick’s one liners like Tony Abbott’s three word slogans; ‘Stop the boats’ ‘No carbon tax’ ‘Great big tax’ etc have become extremely effective as the polling results indicate. People just refuse to waste their time listening to Gillard because the Minority Govt she leads is not working and will not work. Too many different agendas to deal with.

      As for The Badger, he is naughty but I understand how frustrated he/she must be. He/she should be like you and Persetelephone. You, I respect your dislike of Tony Abbott because I can relate to it. I have the same dislike for Julia Gillard. Persetelephone for her tenacity to fight on for an incompetent Govt. It is what she believes in and should be respected for it.

      Cold and windy here in Adelaide! I hope you are having a nice day.

    • dovif says:

      02:31pm | 23/05/11

      LOL @ Acrotel said

      It’s not just rusted-on Labor, it’s people that wish there was a better alternative than a conservative ‘Liberal’ party.’

      Umm opinion polls tells us 45% of people will happily votes for the Liberals if there was an election tomorrow

      Only 31% of people ... let me say this slowly ... ONLY 31% OF PEOPLE would vote for the ALP

      I would suggest you have it backwards

    • Sven Gali says:

      02:32pm | 23/05/11

      Sorry, Eric, but I can’t oblige. I love Tony Abbott, not least for saving us from a Coalition Government at the last election. I continue to hope the Liberals stick with him for as long as possible.

    • Bruce says:

      02:44pm | 23/05/11

      Anybody has got to be better than our current Prime Monster Bob Brown !!

    • Richard says:

      03:49pm | 23/05/11

      @Rosie

      Australia is in fine shape, as we all know. So it’s not politics people are sick of, it’s you repeating yourself every day about the Prime Minister and how the sky is falling. People have always avoided obsessed toxic bores. Keep it up for another couple of years and see how you go.

    • acotrel says:

      08:19am | 24/05/11

      I wonder if Rob Oakeshot had negotiated a bit harder, he might have become PM?  I suggest anyone living in regional Australia who doesn’t vote for an independent, is simply silly, and has no eye for our rural future!

    • RyaN says:

      10:36am | 24/05/11

      @Northern Steve: jees mate, I would have thought that any provable influence that man has had on global warming would be simple enough. How about this, how about some definitive proof on the “anthropogenic” part of global warming. Any peer reviewed research that definitively proves man is causing global warming is what we are after there mate. Not hard, and there is $10k in it for the first real scientist to prove it.

    • Super D says:

      07:01am | 23/05/11

      Bill Shorten will be the next Australian PM when Gillard gets rolled early next year.

      Reply

    • dovif says:

      08:24am | 23/05/11

      For the first time, I completely agree with Super D.

      Gillard have been so incompetant that there is now no chance she will ever led the ALP to another election.

      For her lies, her fake/real Julia, her citizen’s assembly, her completely stuffed up 2nd attempt at a Resources test (if you fail the first time, and you fail again the 2nd time?)

      Really have any past public person been so incompetant in just 1 year .... ok maybe Peter Garrett comes close

      She just does not have the ability to led Australia and apart from the most rusted on ALP staffers, the whole electorate can see it

    • LeftRightOut says:

      08:25am | 23/05/11

      Not until he learns to speak… “TH” sound anyone?

    • jag says:

      09:16am | 23/05/11

      He looks to have the inside running given that Gillard has shown herself to be utterly and totally out of her depth.

    • Badjack says:

      09:43am | 23/05/11

      Shorten will have to stop saying wiff (with) and fink (think)

    • Babs says:

      10:23am | 23/05/11

      I’m with you LeftRightOut - Bill Shorten can’t even say pronounce the simplest of English words . Call in Geoffrey Rush, or Henry Higgins - ‘va’ is not ‘the’, and ‘vat is not ‘that’.

    • Phil says:

      11:14am | 23/05/11

      Super D, do you recon she will last that long? I dont. Shorten or Combet must be sharpening the knives. Maybe Bill can invoice the MIL over and tell he to sack the government, he can take over and promise to dump the Carbon Tax and hope, play/dream to win the election!

    • Gerard says:

      11:27am | 23/05/11

      An inability to master the English language certainly didn’t hurt the Red Barren’s chances. Hyperbowl? Negoseeate?

    • LeftRightOut says:

      12:24pm | 23/05/11

      Good point, Gerard… “hyper-bowl” - seriously? How utterly embarrassing for all of Australia. Imagine if JWH made such a gaffe, good heavens.
      In her previous role as deputy, I (along with many others) actually rated her. Big difference between criticising and doing. Yet she has the temerity to criticise her opponents for not being able to deliver, or spend their time being negative - tell me, what the hell is there to be positive about with this lot?

    • Gladys says:

      12:30pm | 23/05/11

      You forgot to insert the word ‘financial’ before year.

    • Denny Crane says:

      12:43pm | 23/05/11

      Shorten would be worse than Gillard and Rudd combined. He thinks he knows everything. he wont listen to experts and has an smartarse streak of arrogance that would ensure, like Rudd and Gillard that he would be a one-term PM.

      he really is a nasty piece of work - far nastier than Rudd and he is a socialist and unlike Gillard he would be prepaared to implement his socialist policies and everyone else be damned.

      The job he has done in Superannuation will ensure that no young person ever gets any advice, education of assistance and we will have a generation of people who are seriously under insured. Under insurance eventually has a terrible effect on the public purse. Shorten doesnt care and he wont listen. All he is interested in is destroying competition to his mates in the industry funds and the who community will suffer because of this.

    • Robert Smissen, rural SA, God's own country says:

      01:14pm | 23/05/11

      Super D, You are WRONG, WRONG, WRONG! ! ! !  It will happen this year

    • Northern Steve says:

      09:38pm | 23/05/11

      I don’t reckon so Super D (and others).  The ALP have seen that the last rolling didn’t really achieve much.  At least with Rudd they had some surface unresolved policy issues like the mining tax to use as an excuse - he got himself backed into a corner he couldn’t get out of.  Gillard hasn’t quite done that yet, she seems to continue to find room to maneuvre.  I can’t see the Greens blocking the carbon tax a second time, so it’ll get through enough parliament and simmer down enough to push the fight over it until the next election, not before.  I think she’ll be there for that.  Can’t see that she’d necessarily win mind you.  Promising to roll back the carbon tax would be 50/50 for the coalition.  Worked for Labor on Workchoices, but not on the GST

    • Brian Taylor says:

      07:17am | 23/05/11

      Malcolm Turnbull will not be leading the Liberal Party soon or anythime soon, he’s a has been and needs to stay out of the limelight, he’s yesterday’s man
      sure Julia might very well get the tax up but only because of the crazy greens and the wannabe indies.
      The sooner the public understand that there’s huge money to be made from the carbon tax (not for us little people though) the sooner it’ll go into the rubbish bin where it belongs, sure I’ll be labled as a denier and thats what I am and am proud of it,
      the earth warms up, the earth cools down, thats the way its always been if you check through history and not with your head buried in the sand.
      yes I’ll be asked to back up those facts, but first let you climate changers come up with some facts of your own to suport this crap, and not from so called professers

      Reply

    • The Redman says:

      08:28am | 23/05/11

      So those of us who accept man influence climate change must come up with facts to support our stance, yet we are not permitted to quote facts from professors and scientists whose work proves it? Then where shall we get our facts? Perhaps we who do accept the theory should just do what you conservatives have got down to a fine art. Make it up and lie.

    • Adam Diver says:

      08:43am | 23/05/11

      @ Redman, look past the quotes, and grab the evidence. I can pull quotes from prominent scientist claiming 100 metre seal level rises this century. Since we are about 20 ml for the first decade the evidence seems to suggest otherwise.

    • JohnB says:

      08:50am | 23/05/11

      “the earth warms up, the earth cools down”....

      This has nothing to do with the carbon tax. The carbon tax has nothing to do with the environment.

      If those that feel guilty about being part of warming the earth up realise the carbon tax is not the solution, they’d be zero supporters of this tax but the government.

    • Carter says:

      08:52am | 23/05/11

      “the earth warms up, the earth cools down, thats the way its always been (sic)”

      Yes, absoultely true. It does fluctuate. But it’s widely agreed that the temperature is trending up (both on averages as well as recorded highs) and that this average increase has greatly accelerated since the industrial revolution.

      Besides, how about instead of you, Brian Taylor, sticking your head in the sand on the issue, we all accept that even if we have absolutely no impact on climate change, there are things we can all do to lessen our consumption of, finite, fossil fuels…

    • Aaron says:

      09:06am | 23/05/11

      Okay Brian… Let’s give this a go, the Industrial Revolution resulted in enormous amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases being emitted, now for the uneducated greenhouse gases are those that create a greenhouse effect by letting heat from the sun through but not letting it escape (just like a greenhouse).

      Chloroflurocarbons in the 1800s - late 1900s had a damaging effect on the Ozone layer (let’s think of it as the Earth’s skin) which allows greater amounts of heat from the sun through resulting in higher temperatures on Earth. Higher temperatures mean higher evaporation rates and the higher levels of water in the air means even more heat is trapped.

      What does this all mean though? Well it means that more water needs to be evaporated before you get enough to reduce the atmosphere’s temperature to a point that causes precipitation (rain, snow etc) as an effect of this we get more precipitation when it does happen because there is more to occur.

      Now I know a lot of you are saying “but this is just normal weather cycles” and yes you are right to a degree, however what man has done is speed up the process. I’m not even going into the whole Ice Age/global cooling aspect as it doesn’t appear to be something that people who deny global warming seem to understand.

      Where did I get my information? 14 years of schooling (including history, science and geography) + http://climate.nasa.gov/causes/ and a little bit of commonsense.

    • JohnB says:

      10:27am | 23/05/11

      You gave a fairly good science lesson there Aaron. BUT…You forgot to apply it to logic…How will imposing a carbon tax on Australians stop any more of this happening? It won’t. We will still dig up the coal, oil and gas and sell it to whoever wants to buy it..If it’s not China, India, it’ll be the next emerging market…It doesn’t add up…At the same time we are clearing land that stores carbon at a world rate of 20 football fields a minute (rainforest alone) to make way for an ever increasing population…The carbon tax is about money and has absolutely nothing to do with the environment. The sooner we get rid of this joke that is our present government, we can start looking at real environmental issues.

    • Ripa says:

      10:29am | 23/05/11

      @Aaron
      “Where did I get my information? 14 years of schooling (including history, science and geography) + http://climate.nasa.gov/causes/ and a little bit of commonsense. “

      During all that time and education you were never taught or came to the conclusion that common sense doesnt really exist?

    • Talented Rugby Player says:

      10:53am | 23/05/11

      @ The Redman - ‘yet we are not permitted to quote facts from professors and scientists whose work proves it?’  Bu*****t.  all they have done is produce models.  That’s not proof.  Then you go on yourself to talk about AWG as being a theory. Show a bit more intellect please.

    • RyaN says:

      11:32am | 23/05/11

      @The Redman: “yet we are not permitted to quote facts from professors and scientists whose work proves it? ” I for one would very much like some irrefutable peer reviewed evidence that shows an actual human marker in global warming, just one piece of direct evidence will do.
      You and I both know that it doesn’t exist.
      If you want me to just “believe” then I am afraid you are going to have to convince me to just “believe” in the sky fairy and that the world was going to end on the 21st of May.

    • Brian Taylor says:

      11:43am | 23/05/11

      @redman, perhaps checking through history yourself…oh wait, that’d take far too long, far easier to let other people do your thinking for you eh.

    • Old Bert says:

      11:46am | 23/05/11

      Mr Taylor, please, go back to your analyst. Just because you’ve been told some personal truths, there’s no need to desert the poor fellow for someone else who might give you the test results you want, rather than need. Go back, go on, off you go now, there’s a good boy.

    • Aaron says:

      07:13pm | 23/05/11

      @John, I’m pretty certain the question was about providing evidence to the human factor in climate change, but I will humour you and answer you.

      It will make a difference through the good ol’ supply and demand process. You will see either existing power companies move towards renewable energy or new power companies spring up using renewable energy to provide a cheaper alternative, those companies that continue to use non-renewable energies will either have to increase prices further to cope (reducing their customer-base even further) or reconsider their options.

      But let’s look at the other polluters, refining industries use coal etc in fueling their refineries, however these industries could also use solar power etc to start and run electricity-based ovens/smelters, with a drastically reduced emission, and they would be able to then offer their product at a cheaper price because they’re not paying anyone for access to the sun/wind they just pay to have it installed.

      @ Ripa, yeah I know, common sense is kind of a loaded “perception” common sense predicates that you wouldn’t run across a busy street, however for some people it predicates that you would run across a busy street if you wanted to get to the other side.

      @Adam, nobody can prove that man has CAUSED climate change but it can be proven that man has had an effect on the rate at which climate change is occurring and this is what you and your ilk don’t understand. We as a species have significantly impacted on the climate and we will continue to do so… And before you ask me to produce evidence (again) on how we affect climate change, how about you look at the effects of each of the gases we produce through industry.

    • Aaron says:

      07:16pm | 23/05/11

      Oh and Brian, now that I have met your challenge could you please provide facts that support no effect on climate change by humanity? Same conditions that you had, my only evidence from professors and scientists was related to the effects that the gases have.

    • Northern Steve says:

      09:50pm | 23/05/11

      @Adam Diver,
      I’d be interested in seeing that quote of 100m sea rises, I’ve never seen anything like it my reading.

      @JohnB, replying to Aaron’s excellent description of the warming processes, I hope that you are able to keep the two issues separate - the science of global wamring, and thegovernment’s tax plan.  The opinion that the government’s plan will do nothing to reduce warming does not disprove the fact of AGW.  One is a question of science, the other economics.

    • Northern Steve says:

      09:56pm | 23/05/11

      @RyaN,
      you talk about a human marker proving that man has had an influence on warming.  Typically, if this is the burden of proof you are after, you need to be specific about what sort of marker you might be looking for, and then you search the data for that marker.  So is the marker an increase in the level of CO2 in the atmosphere?  An increase in other gases? An increase in industrial output of particular gases?  What measureable marker are you suggesting we look at?  All of these specific markers have been identified already, and shown to exist.  If you want to discout these, then you need to be able to come up with your own measureable marker, or you’re really not participating in science.

    • Adam says:

      09:56pm | 23/05/11

      “nobody can prove that man has CAUSED climate change but it can be proven that man has had an effect on the rate at which climate change is occurring”

      Alarmist propaganda at its best. You immediately contradict yourself when you say there is no proof of humans causing climate change, then go on to say there is proof humans are having an effect on the climate. Which is it; are humans making the climate change or not? C’mon mate, produce some empirical evidence to show humans have “had an effect on the rate at which climate change is occurring”. And make sure it proves causation, not the usual correlation based studies that fail to prove cause and effect. There is $10k up for grabs, after all.

      “We as a species have significantly impacted on the climate and we will continue to do so… And before you ask me to produce evidence (again) on how we affect climate change, how about you look at the effects of each of the gases we produce through industry”

      There is only one gas that is being taxed. Carbon dioxide. Is there any evidence a carbon dioxide tax in Australia will have an effect on the climate? No. Any evidence of manmade carbon dioxide emissions having a significant impact on the earth’s climate? No. Even the IPCC’s lead atmospheric scientist agrees the whole thing is a joke (and he is an expert on all these gases). See below link.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bqu993xs9Gk

      P.S. The way you believers always shy away from providing empirical evidence is why more and more sceptics are being born every.

    • jb says:

      07:22am | 23/05/11

      The Carbon tax has just been derailed by the debacle in the UK, jobs already lost, a nation looking at bankruptcy and industry leaving the UK for cheaper energy sources and other European counties without a carbon policy lining up to take jobs, money and industry out of the UK its just the beginning of a right old mess.
      Gillard the mugger is going to end up with egg all over that lying face of hers the more she uses the UK model to justify her own. Abbott knows this and is wringing his hands as he watches the ol blighty build in revolt!
      The ditch is getting deeper and the paddle is nowhere to be seen…

      Reply

    • Talented Rugby Player says:

      07:55am | 23/05/11

      The Canadians have just dumped their carbon tax program.  We will probably hear more of this too.

    • Willie Mac says:

      08:17am | 23/05/11

      You do realise that the entire EU is bound by their ETS, don’t you?

    • Nigel says:

      09:14am | 23/05/11

      Willie Mac, You do realise that the entire EU industrial output is still well below the pre-recession heights in all major industrial sectors –  steel output is down by 14%, cement by 33% and refining by 9% and yet their emissions rose in 2010 by 1.8%.  The ETS must be working really well! (sarcasm)

    • Willie Mac says:

      10:36am | 23/05/11

      Nigel, would you care to source your facts please?

    • jb says:

      04:26pm | 23/05/11

      It is fact that industry will leave UK plants for cheaper energy in alternative european countries should the UK model come to fruition.
      This has been confirmed by one of the largest manufactoring companies TATA.
      Fact…
      Gillard the mugger is playing with fire using this model as an example.
      By the way did you know that only 1% of carbon is created by man?

    • Sony B Goode says:

      07:26am | 23/05/11

      The industry now says carbon tax will double the price of electricity. Well done the people and market hating socialists. This whole business is nothing but redistribution in action.

      Like King Canute trying to command the tide back, we can no more stop the climate from changing then we can stop from exhaling, but socialists are sure going to punish us for doing so, by taxing us out of existence.

      It’s not bad that labor has blown $100billion dollars trying to reduce to our carbon “footprint” but that is now just the tip of the iceberg. What market evil will they target next? The mind boggles.

      Reply

    • SydSteve says:

      09:19am | 23/05/11

      Wow, really? The industry selling the product says it will double in cost if their profits starts being taxed? Much like the Tobacco companies saying they will need to cut cmoke prices if plain labels come in? Even though their costs are made up of 70% tax making that impossible.

      Hate to break it to you Sony B but people lie to protect their profits. And the more money they have to run their campaigns the more convincing they are.

    • Sony B Goode says:

      10:20am | 23/05/11

      Misinformation. What the Tabaco industry said was if you remove all differentiators then price becomes the only tool between brands.

      Secondly electricity has already risen dramatically, will do so again in july for nsw even before a carbon dioxide tax. Anyone who thinks it will not rise is selling bridges. In nsw electricity is pegged to a return on capital invested, the less people use it the more expensive it gets.

      Labor has done the electorate in like a dogs dinner.

    • PTom says:

      11:11am | 23/05/11

      A tax on 5% of emission is meant to double the price of electricity.
      What a load of BS.

      Wow funny how the market hating socialists are the ones that suggesting that the so-called tax as the first part of a market-based solution to put a price on carbon. While the Industralist keep the heads buried in the sand whinging about a Egyptian river.

      Unlike you I have no belief that we are looking at controlling the climate instead we are look at controlling what junk we dump into environment that affects the climate.

    • L. says:

      11:56am | 23/05/11

      the Tabaco industry also said that they will have to drop thier prices massively to compete with the growing trade in cheaper, black market cigs.

    • SydSteve says:

      12:34pm | 23/05/11

      @ Sonny B,
      Yes definitely misinformation. But not by the media. By the companies who are fighting to keep their profit margins.

      David Crow, BATA’s chief executive said.
      “Could (the price of) cigarettes halve over time? In the longer term, potentially yes,” he told the Herald Sun newspaper, saying the cheap prices “basically means more people will smoke, more kids will smoke”.

      This was on the first sight I googled. I actually heard him defend this point in an interview.

    • stevie p says:

      07:35am | 23/05/11

      They were listening more to the Greens till last week Mal - now watch the heat come on Brown when for once there is analysis of his policies. That jokey calm exterior is going to be severely exposed by the Canberra Press.

      Reply

    • persephone says:

      07:49am | 23/05/11

      Well, it’s a done deal then. By your criteria, Gillard will win the next election.

      By the next election, a carbon price will be in place and asylum seekers will be being processed in an orderly fashion overseas.

      Interesting that you state that the Liberal’s internal problems - major stoushes between the Leader and Shadow Treasurer, a former leader publically declaring that a couple of major policies are duds, Scott Morrison with a lean and hungry look - are nothing compared to Labor’s and then fail to identify any internal problems for Labor.

      And then there’s the deliberate - because you know better - misreporting. Malaysia said there was no deal yet. Surprise, so did the government. They’re in negotiations, with Malaysia making it clear that they’re incredibly supportive.

      That’s not a gap between promise and delivery. There never was a promise concerning Malaysia - there was an announcement that the two governments were working on a deal and the nature of the deal was outlined.

      Reply

    • Adam Diver says:

      08:45am | 23/05/11

      “That’s not a gap between promise and delivery. There never was a promise concerning Malaysia - there was an announcement that the two governments were working on a deal and the nature of the deal was outlined.”

      Ever thought they should announce something after a deal is signed?

    • Anubis says:

      08:55am | 23/05/11

      C’mon Pers when are you going to admit that Gillard is a dud. You say “That’s not a gap between promise and delivery. There never was a promise concerning Malaysia”. Unlike East Timor - the only thing she forgot with that one was to actually talk to the East Timorese about it. The woman is a joke, not just in Australia but internationally.

    • LeftRightOut says:

      12:37pm | 23/05/11

      I don’t think the gap between promise and delivery need even relate to the “Malaysia solution” - you could apply it across the board. Almsot every single policy of this mob since 2007, has been an utter disater - OK, a little bit of hyper-bowl perhaps, but not too far from the trufe (as Bill S would say).

      More importantly, the general public feel that everything that Labor says/does, ends in debacle. They are openly ridiculed by the voters and treated with the contempt they deserve.
      I do feel sorry for labor supporters, as it was once a decent party. I also would welcome a strong ALP as long as it had good people, doing good things. Unfortunately, I don’t see anything but self interest in the current lot - sure, there’ll be a few exceptions, and given their rules around “towing the party line” we’ll never get a proper understanding of who’s good and who’s not.

      Bring back the old ALP, and get rid of these lightweights. Clearly you’re intimately involved with the party, persephone, as an Australian (doesn’t matter which side of politics I indentify with) I’d ask you to help get these people back on track. It’ll take a long time in opposition, but when the rebuilding happens, just get back to your roots and stand for something.

      The crap we hear about now-a-days is just white noise, and not reflective of the Labor party I used to know.

    • Anne71 says:

      12:51pm | 23/05/11

      I’m sorry, Persephone, but there’s no way I could ever vote for Gillard again, and I’ve been a life long Labor voter.  I sincerely hope that Abbott gets rolled before the next election because I do not particularly like him either, but if he’s still there I’ll probably just bite the bullet and vote for the LNP anyway, because anything is better than the slow-release disaster that’s leading this country right now.

    • persephone says:

      01:52pm | 23/05/11

      The NBN, health reform, action on climate change…all good things, all big ticket policy items, all needing a lot of ‘ticker’ to deliver, all visionary.

      Just as being daring enough to spend money to keep Australia out of recession was, just as being sensible enough to use the bulk of that money in ways which didn’t just create short term jobs but long term benefits to the community was as well.

      It’s a good government. Even if it’s kicked out in two years time, it will have achieved great things, which will provide ongoing benefits for every Australian, and it will leave a greater legacy than Howard did in his eleven years.

      That’s what really scares you.

    • LeftRightOut says:

      02:33pm | 23/05/11

      Perse, are you serious, cognitive dissonance anyone?
      NBN, there’s a whole long argument to be had there. I agree with super fast broadband (I’ll sign up) - but think laying cable all around the country is wasteful - at best, it should be rolled out to the largest customer base first up, not small, expensive to install backwaters. Policy fail (they only use HD video conferencing - which I can do right here, right now over a wireless connection) and some mythical medical consultation… the policy had potential, but is too wasteful and certainly not visionary. I’ll meet you half way on that one.
      Health reform - what health reform? Super clinics (the few that are running) are very expensive, have threatened existing businesses, over budget, and taking longer than expected - fail 1
      So called health reform with the states? err, they have (or had) an agreement to agree something at some later stage, which has now gone off the rails again - fail 2 on health.

      Action on climate change? seriously? The Greens have demanded a carbon [dioxide] tax. Gillard convinced Rudd to dump his ETS, then promised no Carbon [dioxide] tax and broke this solemn promise - epic fail!

      None of this scares me (not sure what I wrote makes you think I’m scared?) - I feel pitty for the ALP faithful. I feel pitty for Australia that there is no longer a strong labor party. We are poorer for their failure to maintain their previously good position.

      If/when kicked out, I’m afraid they’ll have achieved very little, if anything. This is bad for Australia, and bad for labor. I do worry that you are somehow unable to concede any of these failures. I thought intelligent people could maintain some sort of objectivity - clearly not. I know it’s hard, but please try - I really do want Labor to get all the help they can, we deserve better than this.

    • persephone says:

      03:42pm | 23/05/11

      LRO

      If the government achieves what it wishes to, but is still kicked out in 2013, it will leave -

      * every school in Australia with new school buildings, providing on going benefits for every student for the next fifty years;

      * major health reforms, not just more health professionals in training, but a revamp of the way the health system operates, with health planning being determined on a local level;

      * as well as this, new cancer centres, GP super clinics (placed in areas where there is no competition for the services they provide), substantial upgrades/rebuilding of hospitals and other health facilities;

      * the NBN partially rolled out (I note you diss it on the basis that it services rural and regional areas - you might regard that as wasteful, I sure don’t!! - areas which will only get high speed broadband if a government subsidises it, and areas which are most likely to benefit from the services it provides).
      * the structural separation of Telstra, which will allow real competition in the telecommunications market;

      * a carbon price in place and working, with time for people to realise that in fact it hasn’t impacted on their wallets in the way the Opposition warned.

      Sorry, I can’t help but see all of those things as visionary - certainly the Oppo isn’t offering anything of this scope or with these long term benefits to the whole of the community.

      This isn’t a government for the short term; major structural reform takes time.

    • Northern Steve says:

      10:07pm | 23/05/11

      I’ll just pick one ther pers, the first one.
      Our school picked up a new building.  A good building, but well overpriced.
      If we had been given any say in what we wanted, it wouldn’t have been the building we got.
      We missed out on a generational chance to do something really big for our school.  We’ll look at the building for years and think, it’s nice, but we could have done so much more.

      No I’ll do one more.  A doctor in Mackay has spent about 5 years planning and fundraising to build a 24 hour clinic, much like the ones the government want to build.  Once the government announced they would build one at the election, his financers pulled out.  He would have opened in January this year.  Now?  He’s gone, having lost a bucket of h is own dough, 5 years of his life, and we still dont’ have a 24 hour clinic, and none in real sight.  Well done, Gillard.

    • Sony B Goode says:

      11:01pm | 23/05/11

      persephone “Even if it’s kicked out in two years time, it will have achieved great things, which will provide ongoing benefits for every Australian, and it will leave a greater legacy “

      the only legacy will be a huge debt and a burning hole in our wallets.

    • St. Michael says:

      11:54pm | 23/05/11

      @ Persephone: “Just as being daring enough to spend money to keep Australia out of recession was, just as being sensible enough to use the bulk of that money in ways which didn’t just create short term jobs but long term benefits to the community was as well.”

      I don’t know if I’d call a bond market debt of 183 billion as a long term benefit to the community.

      Nor would I call increasing the maximum bond limit to 250 billion from its previous 200 billion a sign of great things to come, either.

      The first figure indicates the size of Australia’s credit card debt.  The second, which is a proposed amendment to the Loans Securities Act 1919 and which was slipped in underneath the budget bill, indicates an increase in our credit card limit.

      That’s the Federal government’s own Office of Financial Management talking on the bond figures, by the way: http://www.aofm.gov.au .  That 183 billion has to be paid back.  Swan’s planned surplus of roughly 3 billion—if it’s all used to pay that debt down—reduces the debt to 180 billion.  The government’s figures also includes the past 10 years of figures back to 2002 or so when the bond debt was 50 billion, and paid down to 26 billion at its lowest.  You know, or should by now, that a country starts issuing bonds when it can’t pay for things out of its own taxation pocket.

      If the amendment passes, we will have voted up a credit card that can be charged up to roughly what Australia’s Federal tax system takes in one year: 245-285 billion.  The credit card currently stands at 183 billion.

      And before you wheel out debt-to-GDP ratio: bullshit.  GDP represents the entire money that a country makes in one year.  Saying that the government debt is only 20% of GDP is basically saying that one in five dollars in Australia is owed to someone else.

      The easier way to compare it is this: wouldn’t it unsettle you if your credit card limit was equal to the amount you get paid every year? i.e. You have a credit card that you can charge up to $70,000, and you only earn $70,000 per year.

      In point of fact, it’s simpler and more troubling: basically, the government’s credit card is close to maxed out.  We owe 183 billion in bonds, 200 billion is the maximum.  Is it a clever idea financially to raise your credit card’s limit to 250 billion—particularly when you only get in about 245-285 billion per year by way of tax to pay for it and everything else you do?

    • Bloggs says:

      10:01am | 24/05/11

      You say “a carbon price will be in place and asylum seekers will be being processed in an orderly fashion overseas” by th enext election.  Stone the bleeding corws, you actually think that anythign at all performed by the ALP/Green coalition can actually be achieved in an orderly fashion???

      With such fine examples to date:
      The school building programme, rorted to the extreme by incompetent builders and competent con-men…
      The home insulation debacle that actually killed people for which no-one in the organising ALP has yet been held accountable - talk about getting away with manslaughter!!!???/
      We also have set top boxes being doled out to pensioners who probably don’t need them but who could be handed free replacement TV’s at a cheaper cost…..!
      More boat people arriving with free calls home to arrnage the next boat load at huge cost…
      Riots in the detention centres because of mis handling government policy….

      and.. and… and YOU think anything at all can be done in an orderly fashion?

      The mind boggles at the blindness of some fools on these pages.

    • Joel B1 says:

      07:58am | 23/05/11

      Coalition, coalition, coalition. Let’s all speculate about the coalition who ain’t ruining Australia.

      How about speculating on Gillard’s likely stabber-in-the-backer?

      Reply

    • loulou says:

      08:59am | 23/05/11

      David Hicks?  Left favourite boy. Standing ovations.

    • Tony of Poorakistan says:

      09:35am | 23/05/11

      The faceless men again. 
       
      Then we get yet another union hack who has never had a real job.

    • LeftRightOut says:

      12:41pm | 23/05/11

      Joel, this is Malcolm Farr’s stock in trade. Do a search of all his pntificating over the past few years. He spends a lot of time criticising the opposition, and not a hell of a lot on the actual government. The attention he does focus on Labor, is done in a very generous spirit shall we say…

    • Joel B1 says:

      08:02am | 23/05/11

      “Opposition’s Direct Action plan for reducing carbon emissions – in which industries would be given money by taxpayers to get clean – would cost billion and billions over many years.”

      Yes funny that, unlike Gillard’s plan which is magical. Apparently no-one pays.

      Except BIG POLLUTERS who being the nice people they are would never raise their prices would they? But that’s OK because in the magical roundabout consumers get more money to pay for those more expensive products.

      Wait a minute. Hows that work?

      Reply

    • Adam Diver says:

      08:51am | 23/05/11

      @ Joel,

      I can explain it to you.

      1. Raise a tax very small.

      2. If the polluters pass on the cost subsidise the lower and middle income families so that they don’t change habits.

      3. Have no alternatives to power generation, transport and agriculture.

      4. Provide overseas manufacturers who “pollute” more, an economic advantage over local manufacturers.

      5. Collect revenue from big polluters, save the world, increase your surplus, make lower and middle incomes better off, and employ more people in the “green economy”. Tick, tick, tick, tick, tick.

      Its so obvious I am not surprised a conservative can’t see how well it will work.
      4.

    • LeftRightOut says:

      12:46pm | 23/05/11

      And no comment from the sycophants in the media who think this is a great idea about when the subsidies run out… they certainly will at some point.

      Don’t want to talk about THAT do they?

      Lower income workers will be better off - perhaps, but not for long! If someone on a lower income is dumb enough to swallow that, then they better not come begging for cash when they start feeling the pain as they surely will.

      Seriously though, this will create an even greater dependence on welfare for the future. That probably helps the ALP (as they’re the hand-out party. I know the coalition are guilty too, but the ALP are recognised as such) but you have Gillard/Swan belting dole bludgers (and the nearly MILLION disability pensioners, seriously, nearly a MILLION!!!) in this budget, but in the next, they’ll create a whole new system of welfare dependence! It is unfreakingbeleiveable!

    • nossy says:

      08:24am | 23/05/11

      Well given the extent of the unrest in Abbotst party Malcolm it is most unlikey he/she will come from the Coalition. Poor Tones is under heavy fire as the realisation has now dawnedin his party that to campaign for PM with no policies is not sustainable given we have over 2 years till anothe relection. As Gillard continues to implement policies Abbott will look more and more like a little schoolboy who hasnt done his homework - a note will have to be sent home to Tonys Mummy !  hahahahah

      Reply

    • Talented Rugby Player says:

      08:54am | 23/05/11

      Oh give it up Nosworthy.  Your ‘predictions’ about Abbott are becoming very boring and way off the mark.  Federal ALP 28% primary vote in Qld.  Gillard - preferred leader of the ALP 19% v’s Rudd’s 58%.

    • nossy says:

      09:02am | 23/05/11

      @Talented Rugby Player - the pressure of the unrest in the Coalition getting to you fella ?

    • Talented Rugby Player says:

      09:17am | 23/05/11

      @ Nosworthy - Absolutely not - just bored by your rantings and puerile comments.  I do know how to read numbers though and Gillard is dead in the water.

    • Michael says:

      09:38am | 23/05/11

      Nossy, the only reason Labor and it’s zealots are talking up the Liberal leadership is because they can’t talk up their own, a leader no one is listening to, no body good enough to be “in the wings” Haha even Rudd wouldn’t touch the leadership of the Labor party.

      It is baseline politics but Dr No’s campaign attacking J.G. and everything she touched has been very effective, which is why Labor are stepping up the name calling and trying as hard as can be to make Turnbull to Abbot what Rudd is, has and will always be to Gillard.

      when it gets too tough for her (and you) perhaps a unison Cry of “where are the oppositions policies” will help your ilk be distracted from the fact that while Labor are full of “policy” they have no ability to deliver and no money left either, unless you count the big new credit limit smile

    • nossy says:

      11:49am | 23/05/11

      @Talented Rugby Player - well how about these numbers gorgeous - its 2 and half years till the next election and you are calling it now !  hahahahaha

    • Dallas Beaufort says:

      08:26am | 23/05/11

      At least Tony Abbott can ride a bike in a straight line, now that’s sustainable.

      Reply

    • loulou says:

      08:54am | 23/05/11

      He’s athletic, isn’t he.  So jealous are the blokes.  Sand in their faces, Abbott!

    • Warren says:

      09:25am | 23/05/11

      “Watching Abbott run is like watching evolution in reverse”

    • kellie says:

      06:38pm | 24/05/11

      if i hear abbott, the rhodes scholar pronounce anything anythink once more - i’ll have to throw something at the tv!!!!!

    • duck dog says:

      08:27am | 23/05/11

      Really , what a bunch of no-hopers that we have for leaders . The ‘Carbon’ tax is a nonsense that we do not need .

      It is trying to get back the hundreds of billions of dollars spent trying to ‘prove’ climate warming/change . A lot of money spent chasing shadows , who can one believe who is telling the truth ?

      Reply

    • Against the Man says:

      09:30am | 23/05/11

      You mean we can’t trust Juliar Gilltard? By George what is this world coming to when we can’t trust an immoral, fake, liar of a so called Prime Minister smile

    • Baa Baa Baa says:

      08:40am | 23/05/11

      Little Red Riding Hood has hoodwinked us once too often but who will be the next wolf in sheep’s clothing?  It’s a scary thought - what fairy story will we read next - perhaps one of the Brothers Grim.

      Reply

    • skeptic says:

      08:50am | 23/05/11

      the ultimate goal of the central planners and bureaucrats is to transform the nature of free markets so that everything flows through an elite bureaucracy of technocrats.
      Garnaut and the climate change committee member have been selected as the spokesperson on climate change to give credibility and authority to a report on a policy the government has already selected. There’s nothing objective about their ‘expert’ opinions.

      They are making the text-book economic mistake made by central planners and government bureaucrats. Like most people with a great faith in planning, they are confident that their knowledge is complete and superior.
      After all, with the government and a bunch of economists and academics in charge of the economy, what could possibly go wrong?
      So You all should shut up and do what you’re told.

      Reply

    • FWG says:

      09:19am | 23/05/11

      Creepella Gruesome slinging off at Tony Abbott L.O.L

      Reply

    • Babs of Syd says:

      11:14am | 23/05/11

      “Creepella Gruesome” - I’m still laughing out loud.  Pure gold!

    • TheRaptured2012 says:

      09:45am | 23/05/11

      It’s all about one world government(G20) and currency(BanCor), the globalist’s had to wait for a generation perverse enough that thinks it is smart, but is so stupid from drinking the heavlily flouridated water to follow their phychopathic cravings of control. The easiest way to do this, is through beating the made up Global Warming bush and it has worked with the help of the Green loving atheist’s. They have found their supporters mainly in the GenY credit card superstars(Elio) and blue collars, this is a worldwide phenomenon that is happening and is working very well to the global elite’s plans. Gillard is a construct of the NWO thats why christian kevin had to go! She was selected, not elected!

      Reply

    • LeftRightOut says:

      12:51pm | 23/05/11

      Love the name, Raptured2012, the rest I’ll leave at the door, though grin

    • Just the Facts says:

      09:45am | 23/05/11

      AGW is happening.
      The science is unequivocal.
      Time to move on to what we can do about it.
      Conservatives have nothing to offer to the debate, so it’s a good thing they excuse themselves for a toilet break whilst the others get on with it.

      Reply

    • MarK says:

      10:52am | 23/05/11

      “so it’s a good thing they excuse themselves for a toilet break whilst the others get on with it.”

      Sort of like at an ALP state conference where they couldn’t get a quorum to vote on anything and the PM was ushered in the side door and back out the same way after telling some Abbott jokes.

      Yep sounds super. You get on with it.

    • Gerard says:

      11:36am | 23/05/11

      If it really is “time to move on to what we can do about it”, then maybe the ALP should stop wasting time trying to introduce their revenue-raising carbon tax scheme and do something about the environment instead.

    • Angus says:

      10:08am | 24/05/11

      Abbott has the answer. Direct Action until there’s a Global Agreement.

    • Shane From Melbourne says:

      09:56am | 23/05/11

      Look for the informal vote to skyrocket next election. There is a sizable portion of the population that hate both Gillard and Abbott. Expect the minor parties to do well in the Senate.

      Reply

    • acotrel says:

      10:00pm | 23/05/11

      Looking good for more independents in regional seats!

    • Northern Steve says:

      10:12pm | 23/05/11

      Yeah, I dunno.  The polls aren’t indicating that.  If the polls fluctuate quite a bit there might be some truth to it.  Who are the minor parties though?  I think there’s only the greens left.  I reckon they’ve peaked nationally.

    • Felipe says:

      09:59am | 23/05/11

      Hi Malcolm,  in your analysis you have only done one argument that is, if Gillard wins on Carbon tax, Tony Abbott is gone.  How about the other competing argument of if the Carbon tax is not a winner what will happen to Gillard and Labor.  At the moment the Victorian state labor conference is already a picture of a sinking ship.

      Reply

    • hermes says:

      10:03am | 23/05/11

      I AM SICK OF CLIMATE CHANGE, IT IS BORING. I don’t care any more. It has become a inner city idiot cult, and like all cults, I think those that blather on and on and on and on are too too irritating. I used to “believe” in it, now I am just annoyed with it and its proselytes. Please change the subject. Now, as for the next leader…well, I can assure you, there are NO leaders in the ALP, and I’m a bit iffy about the Coalition too. Can’t we head hunt someone from outside politics? If not, I’d prefer Kevin Rudd or Malcolm Turbull.

      Reply

    • Barney says:

      10:06am | 23/05/11

      Malcolm , I think that it would fair to say that a lot of people are like me
      and fed up with hearing about climate change , the broad band roll out
      the refugees , what Gillard said, what Abbott said,..  blah blah ,
      You and many journalists just wont leave it alone , then again I suppose
      it saves you having to find something else to write about , give us a break ,
      it’s mind numbing ,  and changes nothing.

      Reply

    • Joan says:

      03:58pm | 23/05/11

      @Barney

      You do realise we’re free to go do something else, don’t you?

    • Steve Thompson says:

      10:16am | 23/05/11

      I wish that Julia Gillard would stop constantly whining about the Leader of the Opposition and get on with the job that we taxpayers are paying her for.

      She needs to realise that she and her MPs have been suckered into responding to Tony Abbott’s negativity by emulating his negativity. It hurts a Prime Minister far more that it hurts an Oppostion Leader.

      But also, this is without a doubt the worst parliament that I’ve ever seen, on all sides. Stop the school-yard name calling and get on with managing the country.

      Reply

    • jag says:

      10:43am | 23/05/11

      It would be refreshing to see the government govern, not just bleat on endless about what Tony Abbot would do, or not do.

      Ms Gillard, you are the Prime Minister, act like it.

    • shag says:

      10:57am | 23/05/11

      She is governing
      Where have you been?

    • MarK says:

      11:30am | 23/05/11

      She can’t.

      She is like an opposition leader. She doesn’t really control her party they are being controlled by the Greens.

      She has achieved nothing. Hence she has nothing of substance to be positive about.

      She does not know why she is PM. She has no narrative, no vision and no stiry to tell.

      She stands for nothing as can be evidenced by her repeated lies and policy reversals and failures.

      She is ridiculed for he thought bubbles and sensible schemes alike see the cash for clunkers debacle, the peoples climate assembly and the set top box fiasco.

      Hence she must drone on in a one line attack about a “fear campaign” and “no” because she cannot point to anything else.

      She will be hurting her own voting base and the swinging voters the hardest. She needs to play the man to sidetrack people from this actuality.

      It is boorish, it is self defeating and it demonstrates weakness.

      Apart from the odd sideshow of Turnbull desperately wanting to sit in the big chair and Hockey stuffing up his brief at 56 - 44 2PP Abbott at least can be seen to have the political smarts on her.

      With Arbib declaring Labor’s full support for her over the weekend the end is nigh and as I have said before will be the boost Labor needs. The polls in Qld amply demonstrate that.

      So much energy is being directed at what the opposition says it is hilarious. Abbott drives the agenda in politics. He has changed the paradigm.

      Good luck to him.

    • PTom says:

      11:46am | 23/05/11

      Steve,

      The problem comes down to what and how the media wishes to report.

      I was leave a couple of weeks ago. Just about every morning the PM was announcing a new policy. Yet most of the media failed to report these.

      Just like how the media reported Abbott as a good guy for jetting around Australia telling us how we should all fear a Fixed Carbon Price. Very little on the facts about the PM visiting the heads of Japan, Koera, China and UK (PM & Queen) only that she was off to a Wedding.

    • Richard says:

      04:06pm | 23/05/11

      @shag

      Well said. It’s the fact that Australia is in fine shape which is driving the chicken littles crazy. At least Harold Camping only claimed the world was ending once, on May 21. For the Coalition and their supporters, it’s every day.

    • AdamC says:

      10:59am | 23/05/11

      The media seems to be trying to set up this GST-style narrative in which the opposition is banking on a carbon tax to be the slow-burn killer of the government. Their reasoning is that, should the carbon tax be implemented and not be a complete catastrophe, Gillard’s government will be rewarded by the voters. This is completely wrong, and based on Labor-loving journalists’ own wishful thinking.

      A carbon tax is not in the national interest unless it is part of a global framework to limit emissions. This is the case even if one thinks that climate change is as dangerous as some scientists think it is. As such, even a modest impact by a carbon tax will see the government’s standing deteriorate in punterland.

      And climate change is not the government’s main problem. Its main problem is, in fact, its tendency to make policy on the run, over-promise and under-deliver and allow itself (usually accurately) to be seen to be misleading the people.

      I don’t think Abbott will lose the leadership before the next election. If he does, I suspect Hockey would be his replacement. If Abbott loses the next election, Morrison is a very likely leadership contender. He’s a very good performer on policy and in public relations.

      Reply

    • PeterMax says:

      11:04am | 23/05/11

      I know of nothing that Julia Gillard has done or report she has commissioned that is not dodgy..  And will continue to be. No wonder she is dead politically. Labor and the Greens like Malcolm Turnbull, but he will not lead the Coalition again. Tony Abbott’s Direct Action plan has the immense advantage that it can be stopped at any time. This is very important as in my view the Climate Change claims are fraudulent. This view is supported by the little heard dissenting scientists and the recent Canadian elections where the party which had a big and perhaps unexpected win was the conservative party which showed little interest in climate change.

      Reply

    • Watcher says:

      11:04am | 23/05/11

      Calling Labor voters names is sure to win The liberals votes at the next election!! Voting is personal choice, many follow the traditions of their families, myself included. I am 6th Generation Australian. My family was here at Federation and here when The Labor Party was formed. I have always voted Labor, but when I can see things are going very wrong, there is no Golden noose around my neck compelling me to continue to vote that way. I like Malcome Turnbull for these reasons, firstly the man knows how to smile, he not sneering at me every time he is on tv. His voice does not have that hard edge Tony Abbott’s does, he is a man who I feel could represent us well both here and abroad. Lastly but by no means the least, his courage impressed me, it cost him leadership of The Liberal Party and I don’t know about any of you but I found that courage endearing.  But should Labor get wise and put Kevin Rudd back in..well the choice then for me would be hard. We are supposed to vote for the party not the leader but many many vote or don’t for the guy or female at the top.

      Reply

    • Gerard says:

      11:43am | 23/05/11

      Right…so you’re voting for someone based on whether their party leader smiles or not, and on how their voice sounds. Australia really does have the government it deserves.

    • RyaN says:

      11:13am | 23/05/11

      “It’s because of the gap between the promise and the delivery.” is that what you Labor lot call barefaced lying now?

      Reply

    • poa says:

      11:20am | 23/05/11

      The only people that want Malcom Turnbull are Malcom, the Labor Party , and their congaline of supporters in the media.
      None of who get much say when it comes to voting for a Liberal Party leader.
      Sure, they may try and undermine Abbot, as you do here, but Liberals love Abbot.
      Next PM….well, in the short term will be another ALP MP. But thats because the ALP and the nation has had a gutfull of Julia.

      Reply

    • PTom says:

      12:04pm | 23/05/11

      Abbott only got leadership by one vote means everyone loves him and Turnbull has no support in the Liberal party.

    • poa says:

      02:27pm | 23/05/11

      By that logic Gillard got less seats than Abbot.
      And ALP support is down to low 30’s if not high 20% primary vote.
      What is it with lefties and twisted logic? Too much spin?

    • Doovee says:

      11:21am | 23/05/11

      Labor should invite Malcolm Turnbull to join them and offer to make him their next Prime Minister.  I’m sure he would come over.  Problem solved for both sides of politics.

      Reply

    • Princess Vespa says:

      11:31am | 23/05/11

      Can anyone give me ONE just ONE policy or scheme that Dudd or Dillard has implemented that actually worked and made money instead of wasting?  Dillard was Minister for Education, she created the BER and there are still contractors awaiting MILLIONS in payments for their labour building libraries (that have no books) installing computers (that have no cabling or books on how to use) etc etc. 

      Do not get me started on the failed Stimulus, common knowledge we DID NOT need it, interest rates were only 6% unlike the REAL RECESSION of the 1980s when interest rates were 19%.  We did not need the stimulus, they knew it yet spent 10 BILLION anyway, then DROPPED interest rates the very same week I got the $900.  What a waste they are.  Bring on the election.

      Reply

    • Sarah says:

      12:14pm | 23/05/11

      Russell Broadbent for PM. “Trusted locally, respected nationally”. An authentic person who has been able to articulate clear and informed views on behalf of his electorate.

      Reply

    • ozpol says:

      12:23pm | 23/05/11

      Hi Steve,
      Please don’t ask Jooly and her mob to goern, because we will be in real trouble.
      Have you seen what they done with bats, schools and those Web sites?
      No No, let’s them play politics.

      Reply

    • Old Bert says:

      12:45pm | 23/05/11

      Only when I consult my crystal ball, (a more reliable device, in times of doubt, but of which I have no faith nor scientific credibible evidence of it’s veracity, but with sympathetic regard to travelling circuses)  from whence the seed of this effort from Malcolm Farr has obviously been taken, mind, his own crystal ball, not mine. What IS evident however, is the fact that even Mr Turnbull (sadly, for the Labor Party, who would love to see him as leader, for obvious reasons) in the present circumstance of a minority government,  is unlikely to have the personal capacity to obtain ‘the numbers’ in the opposition, to mount a leadership challenge. I’m of the opinion that he will wait until Abbott makes such a fool of himself, that he, ‘for the good of the party’, will defer to Mr Turnbull. Only when the Liberal Party has Mr Turnbull as the Leader of the Opposition, will see the Labor Party lift it’s game. I doubt if “The Next Australian PM”  will stand up, unless of of course, the public choose me, and I’ll be flattered, but will decline, on the basis of dedication to my shrunken human skull collection, but thanks anyway.

      Reply

    • Harquebus says:

      12:54pm | 23/05/11

      World events in the next two years are going to blow any climate change policies and current prime ministerial contenders out the water. Peak oil mate, peak oil.
      Who’s complaining about the climate and who’s complaining about high prices for energy, food and water?

      Reply

    • Joan says:

      04:54pm | 23/05/11

      And don’t forget Flash, mate. Flash.

    • Harquebus says:

      12:01pm | 24/05/11

      This page uses Flash? What about the peak oil, is that not important?

    • Little says:

      02:05pm | 23/05/11

      41 days and then the Greens will take control of the Senate. Labor will be able to pass their laws on mining, NBN and carbon tax, Australia will see the sky hasn’t fallen in and maybe just maybe we can get a little bit of peace about politics before the next election hot-air fest starts up.

      I can understand trying to destalise Labor and get an indie to cross before the Greens take the senate, but it is just useless waffle now. The Greens and indies won’t give up their chance now it is so close.

      Reply

    • Peter says:

      02:09pm | 23/05/11

      Abbott will not fall on 1st July 2012. Gillard will put the new tax to an election after that date.  After that Abbott shall stand or fall.

      Reply

    • Cate P says:

      11:52pm | 23/05/11

      I thought Nostradamus’s first name was Michael not Peter.

    • Glen says:

      02:50pm | 23/05/11

      1 July 2011 - THE GREEN REIGN OF TERROR BEGINS! The proletariat shall curb you fat cats, academics, middle class and working poor! Then we will see who the real Prime Minister is…

      God help us all. But again don’t blame me, you voted for The Greens.

      Reply

    • happy with my vote says:

      03:52pm | 23/05/11

      As one of the voters who helped Greens get control of the Senate, you’re welcome Glen.

    • James says:

      04:46pm | 23/05/11

      Quick Glen, time to wack on the foil hat before the Greens start sending out the thought control radio waves…oh no too late

    • Shane From Melbourne says:

      05:36pm | 23/05/11

      As the member of the Committee for Public Safety in charge of compiling the lists, I need to know your last name Glen…...

    • Glen says:

      06:44pm | 23/05/11

      Only 1/3 of Germans voted for the Nazis in the early 1930s to give them power. That’s all it took - a third. What is Bobby on now 12%? Only another 24% to go…

    • LC says:

      07:25pm | 23/05/11

      @ HwmV

      As someone who didn’t vote for The Greens, but preferenced them higher than the other parties in the senate, you’re NOT welcome.

      Had I seen this coming, they’d put them between Family First and Labor, 2nd last and last respectively.

    • Time 4 A change says:

      05:37pm | 23/05/11

      There will be another back stabbing but this time the knife will be in Abbotts back and the holder of the bloodied blade will be K Rudd.
      Shock…Awe
      K Rudd joins the Liberal Party…removes Abbott and wins the next election.
      Seriously…both parties are center right.

      Reply

    • Marilyn Shepherd says:

      02:59am | 24/05/11

      Precisely what have refugees got to do with this bullshit whining about “border protection”?  Since when did a few refugees coming and asking for help have anything to do with anything except people asking for help.

      I do wish our brainwashed dingbatted media would stop whining about refugees when the DIC’s have been caught out deliberately denying protection to Afghans 86% of the time.

      it can be forgiven to be wrong 1-3% of the time, it is a crime to be wrong 86% of the time when lives are at stake.

      And we cannot shove refugees off to Malaysia under any law anywhere in the world no matter how vile Bowen and co. think they can be.

      As for Morrison, he is a putrid coward.

      And stupid to boot.  He wants an enquiry into detention does he?

      Hasn’t he seen any of the hundreds of others under Howard?

      Reply

    • RyaN says:

      11:01am | 24/05/11

      “And stupid to boot.” yet so many IQ points smarter than you!

    • Marilyn Shepherd says:

      03:28pm | 24/05/11

      And Ryan, if you have nothing useful to say, say it.

    • RyaN says:

      04:45pm | 26/05/11

      @Marilyn Shepherd: I don’t think that is the way the saying goes, but it does explain a lot.

    • Merv says:

      06:33am | 24/05/11

      Labor just love Abbott.  He is the perfect political target.  Small man syndrome - mean nasty and inclined to bullying. Thank god Turnbull is not still there as they would have won the last election.

      Reply

    • RyaN says:

      10:59am | 24/05/11

      What does this usual baseless slander actually have to do with the article?
      Actually that had to be one of the most pathetic, unintelligent attempts to slander that I have ever wasted my time on, you must be a very klever man! Finish high school did you?

    • Daniel Teis says:

      07:00pm | 24/05/11

      It really doesn’t matter who is in government, it hasn’t since Kevin Rudd performed the last matter of national importance - the successful plan to reduce the effect of the GFC on cash flow.  Since Abbott gained the opposition leadership the country has not been able to do much at all.  He has completely polarized the country and been wrong on almost every issue he talks about.  However the issues are so complex that the average person just can’t get their head around them.  btw I’m NOT A LABOR supporter and I would support Liberals under Malcolm Turnbull.

      Reply

    • Jack Thomas says:

      03:51pm | 25/05/11

      $#@ !! (snort!!)

      This goes down as the best re-write of history since the Labor Luvvies said Keating was the greatest Treasurer ever (despite throwing us headlong into a recession, and having the gall to sneer about it).

      I love this sort of thing, especially the “btw I’m NOT A LABOR supporter”. Is that anything like “a friend of mine has this rash…”? Seriously, you need some tips from Persiephone and the ALP lackey’s guide to posting on Social Media.

      Keep saying that sort of thing Daniel, sooner or later you’ll believe it too.

    • Daniel says:

      11:08am | 26/05/11

      So Jack, you are saying the plan (which involved more than the cash money distributed) wasn’t successful?  What are you basing that on?  Something negative Abbott said or the numerous positive reports from international finance bodies?

    • Daniel says:

      11:01am | 26/05/11

      Keating probably was the best treasurer we have ever had. He certainly gave us the largest reforms we have had in the modern era, which set Australia up to reap the benefits of the mining boom, which happened under Howard.  Reforms which Howard never had the gall to implement when he was treasurer under the largest inflationary period in the last 50 years.  But don’t let facts get in the way of a good story.  By the way, you have 2 first names.

      Reply

    • Richard says:

      06:30pm | 02/06/11

      Fortunately… there are Liberal members who WILL vote for the carbon tax.
      Yes it’s a carbon tax to big industry to force them to change their practices… and to migrate the economy to renewable… solar, geothermal, wind, wave, hydrogen… that’s the shadow Abbott has at his back…

      Reply
 
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