In the wake of the Copenhagen anti-climax there’s been a political vacuum in climate change politics.
The expectations were enormous at the UN summit and the talks collapsed into rhetorical justifications by Kevin Rudd, Barack Obama and other world leaders as China and India flexed their muscles.
At home last week, the Greens tried to step in and fill that vacuum and reassert themselves in what is a bedrock issue for them.
Throughout the debate on an ETS in Australia the Greens marginalised themselves by asking for too much. They could and should have made themselves more relevant by adopting realistic targets and demands. The Government’s maximum target of 25% cuts in carbon emissions by 2020 was the Greens minimum.
To start this election year the minor party’s leader Bob Brown announced a compromise plan, a flat $20 a tonne carbon price for two years until a longer term solution can be achieved. It would get the ball rolling in terms of setting a market signal and give the politics of the issue some breathing space. It was an idea first proposed by the Government’s own climate adviser Ross Garnaut in his original report.
Whether or not the Government can go that far in adopting a flat carbon price in the absence of a global deal is highly unlikely if not impossible but at least the Greens are being constructive. If Bob Brown and co. are to be a serious balance of power party they need to try and drive outcomes on issues of importance to them rather than simply jump for the moral high ground like Greenpeace or some lobby group that has no legislative power.
For the Prime Minister at the moment, the less said about Copenhagen the better. Kevin Rudd’s first week back at work has involved a series of speeches around Australia, all on the economy. In stark contrast to his climate malaise the economic story is a strong one.
The unemployment rate for December fell against all expectations to 5.5% as the jobs market and the economy continue to pull through the downturn remarkably well.
The Government faces the dilemma of rising interest rates in the months ahead but with Australia ahead of the rest of the developed world, this is the ground the Rudd Government is marking out in 2010.
Kevin Rudd knows the election is likely be won in large part on his economic record and, at this stage it appears, in spite of his flagging green credentials as his plans at home and abroad remain paralysed.
The climate change issue was a key point of strength for Rudd Labor at the last election and economic credentials were yet to be earned. At the start of this election year that political orthodoxy has been turned on its head.
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