It’s a political mystery worthy of Dan Brown. Why is it so difficult to find anyone who actually likes our most popular Prime Minister since Bob Hawke?
The PM is rightly grinning from ear to ear at the moment, on the back of his triumphant turn at the UN and the stream of figures showing the national economy has somehow managed to avoid falling into recession during the global downturn.
His job approval ratings are stratospheric. Nielsen polls regularly find his approval ratings at 70 per cent or higher, and this morning’s Newspoll finds around two-thirds of Australians say he’s their preferred Prime Minister.
Yet The Punch can’t find a single voter who wants to have a beer with the man. Does this matter? Not really, but we were determined to get to the bottom of why someone so unpopular, is so, well, popular.
So last week Punch research journalist Courtney Edstein spent three days talking to 100 people in different parts of Sydney, asking what they thought of Kevin Rudd.
The findings show he’s liked for reasons a political leader needs to be. He’s seen as intelligent and, as you’d expect, people point to his handling of the economy and his representation of Australia on the world stage as strengths.
But he’s a bit like a budget airline – after the broad tick of approval, almost everyone has a complaint.
Rebecca, 37, described him as “articulate”, but “smarmy” and “too cool for school”. Jude, 36, thought Rudd was taking economic risks for the sake of political popularity, saying he was “caught between satisfying people and what’s best for the economy”.
Jason, 20, disdainfully noted Rudd “thinks he’s pretty cool with the whole Mandarin thing”. Greg, 55, describes him as “arrogant” and “detached”, and says he “hasn’t kept a lot of promises”.
And yet, proving that political popularity is not the same as being liked, all four said they would probably vote for him again.
Rudd won’t (or shouldn’t) mind the barbs. This is not Australian Idol. For politicians, probably the best you can hope for is that people will say you’re “all right”.
One bizarre finding: asked to describe the PM in three words, 12 people used the words “small” or “little” and mainly very clearly in the physical sense. Rudd is no squirt, but perhaps the impression comes from his small facial features and his diminutive portrayal in cartoons. Whatever the reason behind it, this was an unexpected finding.
As with the more scientific polls, respondents were overwhelmingly comfortable with him at the helm and think he’s doing a good job. We asked if he had delivered on expectations since he was elected and 58 of the 100 respondents said yes.
Asked simply what the PM was doing well and without being prompted or offered suggestions, 27 mentioned the economy and a further 11 said he was doing well representing Australia on the world stage.
(Three wags said he was good at swearing. Expletive-laden outbursts at MPs and flight attendants aren’t all downside.)
But in what might be the first indication of a potential weak spot for Rudd, the same number (11) mentioned spin and public relations as things he did well. They used words like “posing”, “promoting himself” to identify this trait – but three of these people said they would still vote Labor.
Perhaps the clearest form of approval is the complete absence of complaints from some respondents. Asked to nominate something about Rudd they were not happy about, one in five respondents couldn’t think of a thing.
Government debt was the biggest complaint - 23 of the 100 respondents said they were unhappy about it. Rudd’s spending has been the Coalition’s main line of attack this year, but it has yet to convert the attacks into political support in the major polls. And the Punch poll reflected this - of the 23 people unhappy about the debt, more than half (12) said they still intended to vote Labor and a further three were undecided.
In short, unhappiness or anger about the debt hasn’t been enough to drive people away from supporting Kevin Rudd. Yet.
When asked to describe him in three words or less, more than half our respondents volunteered positive words such as “smart”, “approachable”, “energetic”, “down to earth” and even “born to lead”.
Of course others, even some that would vote for him, described him with more colourful terms like as a “bullshit artist”, “suck up” and “cocky for a nerd”.
Here are some of the other key findings of the survey, for which we eliminated people over 35 who had voted the same way all their life. Answers were unprompted and grouped into categories based on the content of the responses.
Has the Prime Minister delivered what you expected of him since he was elected to office?
58% Yes 26% No
What has he done well?
27% economy
11% international activity
Is there anything you’re not happy about?
23% debt
21% nothing
8% environment / not doing enough on climate change
Describe the Prime Minister in three words
41% of responses mostly positive
25% of responses mostly negative
19% of responses referred to the PM being smart or intelligent
12% of responses referred to him being “small” or “little”
Well, he is the Prime Minister. Everyone has an opinion. What’s yours?
Take it away.
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