There are several theories about Kevin Rudd’s alleged popularity. One is that it is simple nostalgia - made possible because memories of what his government was really like have faded and because voters themselves were never that concerned with internal problems anyway.
Some say it is the ``anyone-but-Julia’’ factor - she is not him which by definition makes him an attractive alternative.
Still another theory has it that while his popularity appears a mile wide, it is only an inch deep and could evaporate rather quickly with a return to prime-time exposure. But there is no denying it is there at present. The question is why?
What is it about this socially awkward character who rubs people up the wrong way in person, works well on television?
How is it that a man who talks as if he swallowed a public service manual - hook, line and key performance indicator - is seen as a communicator.
Somehow he has managed to connect with voters more effectively than either Julia Gillard with her authentic suburban twang or straight-talking Tony whose bluntness is legendary.
It is for this reason and this reason alone, that those flimsy types over at Team Labor are considering re-installing him to the same job they deemed him unfit to hold less than two years ago.
Even by his own admission, nothing fundamental has changed beyond a few vague undertakings to delegate more and try packing less into each day - the latter assertion rendered instantly hollow by the fact that it came in a hastily organised television interview at eleven o’clock on a Saturday night.
Yet this ``changed man’’ stuff, and the chance of popularity is about all he has.
As one MP noted, ``humble Kevin’’ is about as believable as cold fusion, or for that matter his claim that there is no challenge ``in prospect’’ because we have a prime minister and he is happy being foreign minister.
Ms Gillard’s cryptic ``government had lost its way’’ explanation was woefully inadequate, but it was demonstrably true as far as it went.
The motivation for a change this time is nowhere near as clear.
The pretender is offering no different policies and has no new perspective that we know of on any key issue.
He would not scrap or even modify Ms Gillard’s chief political albatross, (behind Rudd himself that is) the carbon price. Neither would he alter the mining tax.
In both cases, he would simply bank the money and all the hard work done to progress them, and run.
He would happily take any political credit flowing from the generous carbon price compensation package negotiated with much rigour by Ms Gillard.
Ditto for her truncated mining tax - the very same reef on to which his leadership so willfully sailed in 2010.
And he would leave unresolved the running sore of border protection too.
Those who argue he is a superior salesman might like to first explain the PR debacle that was mining tax MK I.
The fact that Kevin 2.0 offers so little beyond a temporary marketing advantage, but has developed such locomotive force 18 months out from an election says much about the true state of the contemporary ALP.
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