The drama of the 2010 federal election came to an end as the independent MPs Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor threw their support behind Labor. This has an immediate impact on Australian climate policy.

A Gillard minority government promises a new cross-party Climate Change Committee to spearhead carbon-pricing legislation in the next term of government. This agenda will face stiff opposition, but with the right design, it can help move Australia towards a low-carbon economy.
Both Labor and the Greens support the notion of carbon pricing but have not yet agreed on the specific mechanism for doing so. (Labor attempted to pass an emissions-trading bill in its last term, however the Senate twice rejected the government’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. The Coalition opposed the CPRS because it was too onerous, and Greens because it was too weak. As a stopgap measure, the Greens proposed an ‘interim carbon price’ of $20 per tonne for two years, but Rudd and Gillard dismissed the idea.)
The Climate Change Committee will set the agenda for climate policy over the next term of government. The narrow terms of reference mean the committee will recommend either an emissions trading scheme or a carbon tax/levy. Whether it’s an ETS or a straight out carbon tax, there is still a lot of politically contentious ground for the government and its allies to deal with. As Chris Berg notes:
In 2009, Parliament was discussing the mechanics of the government’s elaborate cap and trade scheme. But in 2010, we’re stuck on this simple phrase: “price on carbon”. It makes it all sound so simple.
But what would its target emissions level be? When would it start? How should trade-exposed energy-intensive industries be compensated, if at all? Should low-income earners be compensated?
Resistance to carbon pricing will intensify as we gain clear answers to these questions.
Gillard and Brown have tried to tip the balance in favour of carbon pricing. They have established narrow terms of reference that hamstring the Coalition. By default, the Coalition’s anti-carbon pricing position excludes them from policy development process and positions them as a barrier to progress. Abbott’s strong opposition to carbon ‘taxes’ is well known, and a flip flop on the issue will damage his credibility and potentially weaken his leadership position. This dynamic will help proponents of the carbon price in the parliament, but as we have seen recently, the success or failure of policy also rests on interests beyond Canberra.
Rest assured, Australia’s ‘greenhouse mafia’ will work hard to kill off, delay, or weaken any legislation the committee recommends. The mining industry’s successful anti-RSPT (Resources Super Profits Tax) campaign will give the fossil fuel industry hope of victory. And the effectiveness of any climate change legislation that would gain the approval of the Greens balance of power in the Senate will give them motivation.
Carbon-pricing legislation can avoid the same fate as Rudd’s Resources Super Profits Tax, but to understand how, we have to look at why the RPST failed. The fact that the mining tax wasn’t directly linked to measures that benefited Australians and potential allies seriously damaged its prospects. Because the public was not aware of how the RSPT revenues would be invested they were not willing to support it. Linking the tax revenues to specific initiatives would have made it more difficult for the major miners to pursue an anti-tax position.
Those proposing a price on carbon should say where the money raised would be spent, and say how this would be in the national interest. The next attempt at pricing-based climate legislation can feature a national clean technology fund to invest in Australia’s low carbon future. The Commonwealth could use the fund to invest in new transmission lines, electric vehicle charging stations, and R&D grants to drive innovation in battery technology—helping to overcome non-market barriers to cleantech deployment. The government could also finance large-scale demonstration projects (e.g. concentrated solar thermal power) and clean tech procurement—the effect of which will spur industry development and drive economies of scale.
This approach will require a shift in thinking. Carbon price signals alone are not enough to drive the scale of technological change needed. The principle objective of a carbon-pricing system should be to accelerate the pace of decarbonisation. In terms of policy, a politically achievable price to generate revenue to invest in decarbonisation would take precedence over a ‘high’ price per-tonne of carbon to punish polluters. The latter will inevitably lead to compensation arrangements and cost-containment measures (see offsets) that reduce the effectiveness of a carbon-pricing regime.
Will climate change be solved if a carbon price is successfully implemented? No. It’s a wicked problem that requires a raft of policy measures. A carbon price can be a helpful tool in our efforts to address climate change, however, it all depends on its design and how the revenue is used.
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