Believe the polls and something almost mystical has happened over the past few months – our Prime Minister has changed from being an affable and competent leader to a human disaster area.
This week’s Essential Report builds on a growing sum of polling evidence that Labor is facing a tough fight for re-election and that a large part of the problem appears to be the Prime Minister himself.
Take a look at the shift in the ratings of the PM’s character attributes – a decline that has him nearly as unpopular as his opponent Tony Abbott – and you would be forgiven for thinking the PM has undergone some sort of radical personality therapy which has gone horribly wrong.
Of course, the reality is that Kevin Rudd has not changed over the past three months – it is just that our perceptions of the sort of person he is have been challenged by some of the decisions he has made.
If there is good news it is on issues of work ethic – hard-working and not complacent - Rudd still scores highly. Clearly, no one wants him to sleep less.
The problems emerge around the attributes that go to competence and commitment.On issues of competence Rudd is down as a capable leader and down on his ability to handle a crisis – likely the fall-out from the insulation debacle and the continuing questions about value derived from the school-building program.
On issues of commitment, the perception that the PM was prepared to walk away from his principles is hiring him on indicators like vision, superficiality, honesty and trustworthiness.
Other indicators are harder to understand. According to the people, Rudd is now less intelligent, more demanding and more out of touch than he used to be. It is as if he has passed a tipping point when he is no longer capable of possessing a positive attribute.
The one indicator where you would be feeling a little aggrieved if you were Kevin is the ‘too inflexible’, given the decision to scrap the ETS – an act of master flexibility – was seen as one of the major drivers behind the current slippage in the polls.
But here, like in all the key indicators, we can see a shift away from the narrative that made Rudd such a strong performing leader – whether real or confected, he was our understated statesman, our man with a plan who you could trust in a crisis.
So is the position irretrievable? Like so much in personality-based politics, there is always a way to write a new story. For mine, the numbers are lining up for the sort of public celebrity confessional, that allows us to believe a leader has confronted he has done wrong, is prepared to change and will emerge stronger from the public shaming.
For Kevin, this could start along the following lines:
- I am devastated that our efforts to keep the economy moving in tough times led to the death of young Australians. That loss weighs heavily on me.
- I was wrong to say that we would delay action on climate change – I am going to keep pushing an ETS even if it makes me unpopular
- I have learned from these mistakes and that is why I will be a stronger leader in my second term.
Corny? Sure, but politics is show business for ugly people. Kevin Rudd has to stop acting as if it is contest of the smartest policy mind. Quickly.
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