The battle for the prime ministership has absolutely nothing to do with policy and everything to do with personality.

It is not about who has the best agenda to govern the nation.
On the part of Kevin Rudd, it is about payback. Payback for what he sees as a moral wrong – the removal of a democratically elected prime minister, in defiance of the will of the people, by a bunch of no-name factional hacks, on behalf of someone who either can’t remember or won’t reveal how much involvement she had in the days leading up to the June 2010 coup.
That’s the way Rudd sees it at least, and plenty of voters agree with him. He regards his return as “the politics of contrition” and has described it as such.
On the part of Julia Gillard, it is about the refusal of the party to return to a man whose abrasive style saw him dumped in record time by Caucus. More so, it is about the refusal of the party to reward the tactics he has been accused of since his demise - a leak a week, the backgrounding of senior media figures, cute tweets, accidental self-descriptions as prime minister, and so forth. Many Labor people say Rudd has been so treacherous and so reckless as to the damage he has done to the party, that it’s no longer valid to describe him as a Labor figure at all.
To which Rudd would counter – well, you started it, when you knocked me off almost two years ago.
You cannot exaggerate the level of venom in this fight. In the blokey, profanity-laden world of the ALP, where the rationalisation goes that politicians swear so much in private because they can only use civil language in their public lives, Julia’s people almost habitually describe Kevin with a word starting with the letter c, and Kevin’s people refer to her with a word starting with b.
“Moving forward” from this is the funniest concept kicking around. In the absence of a viable third candidate the party appears doomed not just to defeat at the next election, but possibly also to years of protracted divisions which would eclipse the Howard-Peacock factionalism which split the Liberals for a decade.
In a fight over personality rather then policy, it is easy to predict what will happen the day after the ballot in the event of a Rudd victory, a Gillard victory, or the continuing non-resolution with the corresponding back-biting from both camps.
Nothing will change.
Two quotes from the last week sum up the public mood better than any newspaper columnist ever could. One was from a woman in the seat of Lindsay, in Sydney’s west, interviewed on the PM program, who after offering the obligatory punter’s qualifier (“I’m not really into politics”) made the crystal-clear observation that “the whole thing just seems juvenile”. The other was from a removalist last week who was helping me move house. He was a Labor man, a big fan of Bob Hawke (“Did you see him down that beer at the SCG? Gold!”), who asked: “What the hell are they doing? It’s a joke. It makes me not want to vote Labor.”
The idea that either Rudd or Gillard can emerge gracefully at the other side of all this, and get down to the business of governing, is the stuff of fantasy.
The only way Gillard could survive with any real authority is if Rudd, who needs 53 of the 104 Caucus votes to return, polls so few votes that he looks like a joke candidate. Rudd’s people might be over-estimating his numbers now to psyche out Gillard, but nobody thinks he will be embarrassed in a ballot. And if he loses by a narrow margin he will not go quietly into the shadows. He’ll do a Keating, who needed two shots at Hawke in 1991, where he will leave the foreign affairs ministry, go to the backbench and continue to make merry hell before challenging again.
We saw Gillard yesterday playing a bit of a home game with the release of the Gonski report on education funding. It’s the kind of substantial policy she is most passionate about, and the implied message from her confident handling of the report’s details was: this is what I do, this is why I am PM, and I want to keep doing it. The problem, obviously enough, is that she can’t with all the distractions of Rudd, and only the most humiliating loss by Rudd inside Caucus would render him a spent force. Even then he might keep sniping, such is his bitterness.
Should Rudd win the ballot, almost half of Caucus will be so utterly disgusted by the tactics he used to orchestrate his resurrection that they will struggle to work with him at all. They include backbenchers and ministers. The quality of the Cabinet will suffer. Julia Gillard might have struggled as PM but she was a great education minister, and would not serve in any capacity under Rudd. Wayne Swan would go from Treasury and probably go from Cabinet completely. Say what you like about the world’s latest greatest treasurer but it’s likely he’d be replaced by Chris Bowen, who as Immigration Minister likes to busy himself watching boats turn up. Nicola Roxon and Stephen Conroy probably would not serve under Rudd either.
The most important question, and one which has not been answered by anyone, is how version 2.0 of a Rudd Government would differ from the one Julia Gillard has haplessly been trying to run, in a hung parliament dotted with independents and greenies, and a constant barrage of leaks coming her way.
The fact remains that the very policy problems which helped drive Kevin Rudd from the prime ministership – in order of importance, the carbon tax, border protection and the mining tax – were the same policies which subsequently proved unmanageable for Julia Gillard. She inherited that mess from Rudd and fixing it in a hung parliament was an impossibility.
If the party returns to Rudd it returns to the source of its woes on all three of these vote-shedding policies – a climate change strategy which went from our “greatest moral challenge” to being shelved indefinitely; a line on asylum seekers which was one day as hard as nails then dripping-wet compassionate, with an overseas processing solution which not country (or court) will accept; the ongoing attacks on the mining tax as an absurdity given that the resources boom is keeping the nation ticking along.
There is no clue anywhere as to what policy issues are involved in the leadership. It is about personalities, hatreds, grudges. Voters don’t care whether politicians feel good about themselves or not. The fact that Kevin has never got over June 2010 is more his problem than ours. The fact that Julia thinks he’s a deceitful and damaging force is neither here nor there in punterland. These people have got a country to run.
Voters such as the lady in Lindsay and the removalist guy do focus on the style and personality of political leaders, but they worry more about what they actually stand for. It’s the great missing feature of the leadership battle, and it’s trashed the party to the point where voters think they’re more interested in who exercises power, rather than how and why it is exercised.
penberthyd@thepunch.com.au
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