As elections in two states loom it is becoming absolutely clear that voters are in the process of switching off the Labor Party.

Tasmanian Premier David Bartlett: Is he a central figure in federal politics?

What this means is that Australia will have a changed political landscape post March 20 - no matter what the outcome of the polls.

And the aftershocks from these elections could have profound implications for federal Labor, which will seek re-election with two crippled state divisions providing distractions and baggage.

If there is a saving grace for Labor at a state level, it is that the oppositions in both Tasmania and SA have to make up huge ground.

The Libs need to win 10 seats in SA to govern in their own right and the Tasmanians needs to augment their seven current sitting members with another six seats. Big swings are needed in both states.

This means that in both there is the real possibility of Labor scraping over the line (on Green preferences in Tasmania).

There is also a possibility of hung parliaments and the instability that would ensue

On the balance of probabilities based on the latest polls, what seems to be a likely scenario is that Kevin Rudd could be seeking re-election with voters still carrying their pent up frustrations with Labor.

In Tasmania the situation for Labor is dire.

The ALP’s primary vote has collapsed. The latest public poll has it plumbing a new historic low of 23 percent, dropping from 26 percent three months earlier.

Voters chose to ignore the premier’s pitch of $500 million in campaign promises, signalling clearly that there is a definite mood for change.

David Bartlett has lamely tried to dismiss the poll, claiming that he “spends not one day worrying about his own job” as he campaigns on creating jobs for Tasmanians.

No-one seems to be buying it.

His traditional support base has fragmented on the Left and gone to the Greens, which is just one point behind the ALP on 22 percent, and to the Liberal Party, which is on 30.

Bartlett’s last hope is to sneak back into office on Green preferences, although the Liberal Party is warning of the possibility of a minority Labor/Green government and the damage this would do to timber industry jobs in the state.

In South Australia, voters are fast tiring of Premier Mike Rann, who has spent 15 years as the leader of the Labor Party, the last eight in office.

Rann’s campaign has been dogged by persistent allegations of an affair with a parliament house waitress, whose husband pleaded guilty yesterday to physically attacking the Premier some months ago.

His denials have dovetailed into concerns that his last term has been characterised by more spin than substance. The opposition has made this a central point in their campaign with trust as a focus.

In both states the government has studiously avoided its record.

Both have run campaigns with similar slogans relating to the future and moving their states ahead.

This has been driven by the need to shift attention away from the baggage accumulated over lengthy stints in power and scandals (particularly in Tasmania).

Both have pitched on jobs and both announced jobs targets. Both are keen to try to exploit the assertion that only they can continue to be trusted to lock in the economic performance of the last term.

The ALP in Tassie has set a target of 15,000 new jobs over the next term, even though there are just 13,000 unemployed people in the state.

In SA, Rann has set a goal of creating 100,000 new jobs, the same target adopted by Anna Bligh in Queensland last year.

What has become acutely apparent is that both premiers will need to find other jobs post election. It is impossible for them to survive, even if they both limp over the line.

Bartlett has presided over a nadir in support and cannot expect caucus support when he has proven so politically poisonous.

Rann, who took the leadership when John Hewson was the leader of the federal Liberal Party, has no clear successor.

All the longer serving members of Rann’s ministry have been tarnished with their own problems, meaning that a re-elected government would present as more of the same.

No wonder Kevin Rudd, who has enough problems of his own, is wasting little time in either state. With friends like these….

39 comments

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    • Nick says:

      06:09am | 05/03/10

      I don’t buy it. People easily distinguish between federal and state.

    • Nigel Catchlove says:

      07:32am | 05/03/10

      Nick, that’s a throw away line that is simply not true.  People who are politically connected, politically literate or even politically aware can generally distinguish between federal and state. A couple of years back one of my staff sheepishly asked me how there could be a Liberal PM and a Labor Premier, he simply didn’t understand.  Federal politicians of all persuasions will tell you that if a member of the general public has a gripe with some local government issue, they will raise it with any politician they can and complaints usually rise to the top, so federal ministers often blamed for state and local government’s failure to deliver services.

    • BigBob says:

      08:45am | 05/03/10

      Exactly!! Do you think Labor voters are silly? Don’t count on that we know the difference between Federal and State Elections. I am in New South Wales and Federally Labor will get my vote

    • Isaac says:

      08:57am | 05/03/10

      Good call Nigel. Many Australians don’t care to get educated about politics, and fail to distinguish the particulars of our system because of this.

    • jim says:

      01:28pm | 05/03/10

      You had better buy it. Fine for us political junkies but try knocking on an ordinary voter’s door (not too far away from the cbd) two nights before an election, when firstly they dont know there is an election, secondly clearly not knowing the difference between state issues and federal issues, and thirdly not knowing who their MP is.

    • Frankie V. says:

      09:24pm | 05/03/10

      Although I tend to agree with Nick, successive elections in New South Wales have proved beyond reasonable doubt that the electorate is clearly getting more ignorant, while in Britain, where the electorate is borderline retarded, the Labour Party took a beating at the last round of local government elections because of the unpopularity of the national government.

      And yes Bob, I do think Labor voters are silly - that’s what makes them Labor voters.

    • Noel says:

      07:19am | 05/03/10

      Labor is Labor, whether Federal or State…...just plain bad government!
      Can’t wait for the Queensland state election to get this Bligh out,  a completely corrupt government who don’t give a damn about the people.

    • Aj says:

      08:13am | 05/03/10

      Either David Gazard is trying some tired, deceptive scare-mongering tactics about Green preferences, or he doesn’t understand the Hare-Clark electoral system in Tasmania.  Either one is worrying, given his background.  Voting Green in Tasmania won’t mean ‘Labor gets in on preferences’, given the level of votes we’re talking about, it would mean you turf out Labor members in favour of Greens.

      (Cue rabid verbal bashing of hemp-smoking, know-nothing, traffic-light, Labor-lite, eco-fundamentalist Greens in 3, 2, 1…)

    • Gerard says:

      12:43pm | 05/03/10

      Why have preferences, dipstick?

    • Marvin H says:

      08:25am | 05/03/10

      I am Labor Voter as a matter of fact so is most of my town its a safe Labor seat But I have spoken to many people in the last couple of weeks regarding the N.S.W state election and all say they won’t vote Liberal but will vote Independant.. The Federal election is another matter and I will definatly be voting Labor. No-ones vote is set in stone but I whilst I believe N.S.W definatly needs New Government I am happy with Labor Federally

    • iansand says:

      09:41am | 05/03/10

      I am going to vote Liberal at the next NSW election (my first vote for a major party in about 20 years), not because I approve of their policies (not that they seem to have many) but because it will maximise the chances of getting rid of a Labor government that demonstrates all the problems of having been in power too long.

    • Daniel says:

      08:31am | 05/03/10

      Go the Greens. We need to shake up this country. Next NSW.

    • Macon Paine says:

      09:23am | 05/03/10

      Well Daniel usually a vote for the Greens means their preferences flow to Labor and so in most cases that wont “shake up” anything, infact it will continue to support the status quo. In the end it’s the voters who will eventually cop another “shake down”.
      The greens are for the most part a bunch of muppets, they should have kermit as their mascot and their theme song should be “It’s not easy being green”. Their tagline could be “Hey were not the only muppets in parliament!”
      You want to send politicians a message vote independant or Libertarian via LDP.

    • Martin G says:

      11:31am | 05/03/10

      A vote for the Greens is a vote for Labor. The most ‘shaking’ they will do is to try push Australia further into socialism.

      I wish Greens voters would all just go informal on their ballots, they seem to have no idea of what their party is *really* about.

      Agreed with Macon Paine: ‘You want to send politicians a message vote independant or Libertarian via LDP’.

    • John A Neve says:

      08:43am | 05/03/10

      If bloggers are any indicator, most people confuse state and federal governments.  Many issues raised here are crossovers state to federal or vice-versa.

      But I agree wiyh Noel, what this country suffers from is “just plain bad government”. But who cares, it gives people someting to whinhge about.

    • Rocket Surgeon says:

      09:22am | 05/03/10

      Excellent logic David. So when the Libs lost 20 something elections in a row it was just local?

    • Jonathan Appleyard says:

      09:46am | 05/03/10

      I think most people can differentiate but after long term state governments, voters can see the same signs with the Rudd Government as they have under their broken state Labor regimes.

      Rudd has basically adopted the Carr-Beattie model in Canberra and voters are awake to this.

      The warning signs are there for Labor federally.

    • Fred Bloggs says:

      10:20am | 05/03/10

      Bottom line is, come election time, goodbye labor

    • AdamC says:

      10:27am | 05/03/10

      What is most remarkable is how different the experience of the Rudd government has been to that of the state governments whom Kruddy supposedly modelled his administration on. While Bracks, Beattie, Bacon and Carr sailed through election after election without really having to do much, Kevin seems to be in trouble while being essentially brand new.

      I would like to think this is because Aussie swing voters have started to see the through the sleaze, slime and spin (the three Ss) of the ALP, but that would be wishful thinking. What has changed is not people’s perception of the developers’ and unionists’ association, it is the ALP’s blueprint for governing. In reality, the Ruddbot is less like Bracks and more like Brumby. Rather than maintaining the studious, spin-bolstered pursuit of permanent policy indolence, Kevin is an action man; he’s building things, spending money everywhere and taking over the health system like a nerdy, modern-day Napoleon. (Take that, state health departments!)

      Doing things is controversial. As leaders who are actually trying to achieve something, Rudd, Brumby and Bligh are finding out that, if you want to have something to show for your leadership, you have to take political risks. And those risks don’t always pay off.

    • Martin G says:

      11:35am | 05/03/10

      I get the sinking feeling ALP will just scrape over the line in SA. The Attorney-General Atkinson and RANNdy have done their best to screw things up with their arrogance and spin, but I can’t see Redmond picking up all 10 seats required, despite the shift in voter sentiment.

      This is what I am talking about, a seat the Libs need to win and they look like falling short. Not sure why they picked up baggage-laden (oops) Draper: http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/poll-shows-trish-draper-failing-to-swing-votes-in-morialta/story-fn2sdwup-1225837137310

      Bottom-line - if Rudd survives his own party, Federal Labor will survive another term. Australia rarely kicks out first-term federal governments.

    • JR says:

      11:42am | 05/03/10

      It is a good article. One thing I noticed is David mentioned the Rann government running on the future and not on their record. Not sure if I really agree with this. From what I have seen (I live in Adelaide) is a mix of putting specific wins in their record (what I mean is not say improving a large area such as health or the economy, but a specific thing such as the recent defense contract) against the infighting the Liberals had before Redmond became opposition leader, plus a fairly blatant scare campaign. The Liberals are running on the future, or more so Redmond herself and haven’t attacked the Rann government record or ran a smear or scare campaign. At least not yet.

    • 6c legs says:

      01:03pm | 05/03/10

      What has Jay Wetherall done that has him so badly “tarnished”?

      If Barlett is going to get bounced after ‘labor gets back in’, why is all the electoral blurb about “Bartletts Team”?

      Crikey, what hope do the plebs have, when those on the ‘inside’ don’t have a clue?!

      “Dj” above is right - sitting labor Members will have to make way for Greens Members of Parliament.
      Nick Mckim (& team) has more integrity in his little finger than either Bartlett or Hodgmen have under their suits. Even rusted on state liberal & labor voters have gotten out the anti rust spray/olive oil and will now vote Green.

    • 6c legs says:

      02:32pm | 05/03/10

      for clarity - I should have written: “in Tasmania”  - following; “sitting labor Members”.

      (wish this site had an ~edit function~)

    • eye4aneye says:

      01:15pm | 05/03/10

      It seems to me that whomever is in power federally generally loses the states (Liberal federal government = Labor states and vice versa) I suspect this is so that people feel they are balancing the boat so it doesn’t tilt to far to the left or right.

      So i foresee a big shift to Liberal from most of the states. I find it somewhat reasuring not having all the political eggs in one basket even if it does mean there is unnecesarry political wrangling/point scoring going on.

    • The watcher says:

      01:46pm | 05/03/10

      Labour = Incompetence, Hypocrisy, double standards and big debt. Their job is only good in opposition, where they cant do what they do best, talk about plans for a grand utopia that will never eventuate.

    • Rocket Surgeon says:

      01:54pm | 05/03/10

      Congratulations on the most insightful piece of the day. It is this level of analysis and thought that has our political discourse where it is today!

    • David B says:

      01:57pm | 05/03/10

      I agree.  the problem is labour have stitched up the vote of the vast majority of welfare recipients and Public servants.  This segment of the population alone is enough to get them accross the line.

    • Wayne Fehlhaber says:

      02:25pm | 05/03/10

      The S.A. state election will be close indeed. The seat of Newlands is a real chance for the Liberal Party with Trish Draper , former federal M.P. What some pundits have not taken into consideration is the Family First primary vote which recent polls gauge at 5%. The lions share of preference will go to the Liberal candidate. Draper is about 2% behind the Labor candidate
      on primaries but undecideds may go to the Liberal. The Green preferences will go to Labor. ( 4 % )  The time factor will play a part in Labor’s demise
      statewide. They are percieved as being tired & out of touch with an electorate wanting a fresh change.

    • John A Neve says:

      04:52pm | 05/03/10

      Wayne,

      Well done and well researched I like a Liberal who is on the ball. You are a rare breed.

      Now how do you think this will impact on the federal election?

    • Wayne Fehlhaber says:

      09:03pm | 05/03/10

      John , both of us are aware that in the past , when states fall to one major party , the federal arena will go to the other major party.
      In these volatile times though , i am reluctant to expect the traditional
      electoral overall view. John , the new Rudd hospital proposal could have a huge detrimental effect on Labor’s federal vote. To remove one third of a state’s G.S.T. revenue , federally fund 60% of hospital needs
      and leave the staes to fund their 40% share from two thirds of G.S.T. revenue is a big ask. The states would have no other option but to raise taxes to pay for their responsibilities. Already , we have both N.S.W. & Victoria’s premiers expressing doubts on the viability of the proposal.
      What are your thoughts on this matter John ?

    • Paul says:

      05:05pm | 05/03/10

      The Libs are still lightweight because they fail to land punches on sitting duck Labor politicians and their policy. Which is repeated federally with Abbott not being able to K.O. Conroy who was served to him on a silver platter. Out of Labors frying pan into the Liberals fire. Yawn.  I agree with the above its more a sympton of bad government and lack of voting options. Good to see Labor & Libs getting their bums kicked by Tassie Greens - it may jolt the majors out of their sleepwalking.

    • Wayne Fehlhaber says:

      09:42am | 06/03/10

      Paul , the defacto Labor Greens , are they likely to be of benefit in any way to anybody. ?  Queensland Greens betrayed their own principles during the last election, when they allocated preferences to Labor, the party committed to the Traveston Dam Project . Ironically , their main election thrust was fighting to save the Mary Valley from flooding.
                      As for your claim that the Libs are lightweight for failing to
      KO Conroy , the failure of Rudd to sack irresponsible Ministers , including Garrett , is not the Opposition’s responsibility.

    • Arios says:

      10:58pm | 05/03/10

      When we have boneheads like Marvin H voting, who can’t even string a simple sentence together, like this:

      “I am Labor Voter as a matter of fact so is most of my town its a safe Labor seat But I have spoken to many people in the last couple of weeks regarding the N.S.W state election and all say they won’t vote Liberal but will vote Independant.. The Federal election is another matter and I will definatly be voting Labor. No-ones vote is set in stone but I whilst I believe N.S.W definatly needs New Government I am happy with Labor Federally”

      .. Then what hope does this country have?

      Secondly, anyone who states “I am a Labor Voter” has serious problems. Not because of their said choice, but because they simple vote for the exact same party every election?? What happened to voting for the party who you believe are entering the election with the most favourable policies! Rather than simply always voting for “XYZ party”.

      You common imbecile.

      Intelligence-UP!!! Australia.

    • Marvin H says:

      02:23am | 06/03/10

      Who are you calling an imbecile, you bubblehead. Its my choice who I vote for not yours or anyone elses and I choose Labor. If you don’t like it stick it in ya left nostril. I could not really care. And its rude people like you who vote Liberal, thats why I will never vote for them

    • Botfly says:

      02:29am | 06/03/10

      I guess that means people in safe Liberal seats are idiots too. Everyone has a right to choose who they want to vote for. Worry about your own vote Arios. The only one who sounds like an imbecile is you

    • Paul says:

      02:51pm | 06/03/10

      @wayne Yes any shifts to the Greens unsettles both parties even Labor. Which is great for democracy and complacent duopolies of Lib/Labor. But the Greens are the lazy whipping boy for god-botherers like David Gazard, who writes wonky articles that never admit the dark horse is the Christian Right who are puppeting BOTH the Labor and Liberals. That trumps the Greens power currently. And what, in between whining about Garrett, Abbott, or one of Abbotts loudmouthed but toothless attack dogs couldn’t land one (?) glove on Conroy? Huh? The Libs need some* responsibility and balls to be in opposition Wayne. It’s a job, not a default position. Don’t be lightweight or let Rudd be lightweight. Is multitasking or multi-targeting too difficult for Abbott?

    • Wayne Fehlhaber says:

      09:15am | 07/03/10

      ” any shift to the Greens unsettles both parties even Labor. Which is great for democracy ........”  Something wrong with this line of thought ,
      Australia seems to be the victim. Hmmm , notice you have a Christian paranoia too.
      ” The Libs need some responsibility and balls to be in opposition…... “
      Tell me , Paul , do you see the Greens ever getting past their three or four M.P.‘s and gaining the required numbers to attain opposition status. ?  Their role is tied to being a bloody nusiance without policy.
      Like you said Paul , it takes balls and responsibility to be an opposition.
      Clear your head of religious conspiracies , stop looking over your shoulder and shake the Green monkey off your back.

    • DWest says:

      10:23am | 07/03/10

      I actually enjoy watching how just the mention of the greens froths people like Gazzards cappacino… The conservatives have so much green baggage it’s hilarious. So much for not being firm and not self-confident on your own election campaign and policy hey!

      Funny how obsessive compulsive green fearers like the above and Gazzard,never mention that a vote for the Nationals is a vote for the Liberals. And my experience of dealing with the Nationals is, it’s like waiting on the phone to a telco for half an hour to speak to someone that can’t help you. While our local Nat is useless, Barnaby did take the time to reply to a letter of mine, as a number of Greens have. The Nationals cum Liberals (howard) have let us rural voters down badly on phone sevices and internet that many of us rely on to run our businesses. Did you see that Albatross Gazzard cos it’s still ghanging around your necks mate! And a tad smelly by now.

      The nationals and Liberals are also to gutless to stand up to big business and chains in the farming sector which also rubs rural communities the wrong way.  They prefer to bat for big companies rather than small business mostly.

      When are you going to discuss these ideas, problems Albatrosses Gazzard or are to scared of stepping on conservative toes?

      What a weak, uninspired generation of spindoctors, males and politicians we have produced in this country.

    • Wayne Fehlhaber says:

      08:54am | 08/03/10

      DWest ,  ” So much for not being firm and not self confident on your own
      election campaign and policy hey! “
      Ah yes !  you mean like the Greens in the last Queensland election. ?
      Denied their own principles , preferenced the party (Labor) committed to
      flooding the Mary Valley to destroy the lung fish , turtle & frog species.
      What a weak , uninspired generation of spindoctors , male & female , make up the the Greens.

 

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