It wouldn’t be possible for two candidates in a leadership contest to be more damaged than Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard - and the joke’s on us because right now they’re fighting over what’s left of the carcass of the Australian prime ministership.

This weekend one was publicly called a “psychopath” by one of his colleagues, the other was told by a different colleague the best thing she could do for the ALP was to stand down in favour of a “strong candidate”. Take anything said on the record and times it by ten for what Caucus members are prepared to say without being named, and we still have a week of this to endure before Caucus meets again in Canberra and has a chance to find some kind of resolution.
Both of them have proven totally incapable of running an effective office. Rudd has all but admitted he micromanaged and overworked his staff and ministers into oblivion. He’s had to acknowledge his issues as part of his I’ve-changed narrative. And the lack of discipline in Gillard’s office has in recent weeks been on display with crystal clarity. Now her camp has inflamed tensions with the release of the Rudd-swearing video and threatened to “unleash bloody vengeance on all of those who brought this vampire (Rudd) back to life”. These are not the actions of a crew hell bent on stability.
Neither candidate can hope for any sort of honeymoon period after a ballot.
Honeymoon periods are bestowed by voters in the Australian tradition of giving someone a fair go - a chance to pull their team together, inject some energy and some fresh ideas. Gillard’s honeymoon period after she knifed Rudd 19 months ago was just enough to win her a hung parliament. Hardly that generous.
Neither Rudd nor Gillard would qualify for this minor privilege again.
On ABC TV last night Mark Simkin said the numbers, which are still very murky, were falling roughly a third, a third, a third.
A third of Labor MPs are behind Gillard, a third behind Rudd and a third are undecided. And not just in the awwwww-I-like-them-both kind of undecided - they’re genuinely tortured over which of the two options is the lesser of two evils for the future of the ALP.
Backbencher Darren Cheeseman’s intervention in yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph was compelling for the reason that no matter what happens he’s done for. Cheeseman told Samantha Maiden:
There’s no doubt about it, Julia Gillard can’t take the party forward. The community has made its mind up on her. Certainly it would be in the interests of the party for Julia to stand down and allow the government to select a strong candidate.”
Cheeseman holds the seat of Corangamite in Victoria by a margin of 0.41 per cent. Realistically, nothing can save him at the next election. There’s no win for him in killing off Gillard, so he’s one of the few people who might be speaking out of something other than self-interest.
He seems to have the interests of the ALP at heart. It’s not clear what he thinks is in the best interests of the nation.
Steve Gibbons is much safer in his seat of Bendigo on a margin of 9.53 per cent.
Yesterday he wrote on Twitter: “Only a psychopath with a giant ego would line up again after being comprehensively rejected by the overwhelming majority of colleagues.”
Tweets like that usually get rapidly deleted, but Gibbons stood firm and went on to release a statement that said:
Any political organisation is bigger than the individual and the Australian Labor Party is certainly bigger than Kevin Rudd. Rudd took us to a magnificent victory in 2007 on a well established policy platform after the caucus rejected Kim Beazley as leader. However, his chaotic and deeply offensive style of leadership since then gradually eroded the goodwill that caucus had awarded him. This loss of confidence resulted in Rudd failing to even nominate for leader once the leadership was declared vacant in 2010. Federal Labor cannot afford to adopt the strategies of the NSW branch of the party in regularly changing leaders just because the going gets a bit rough. Being in Government especially under the current circumstance is extremely difficult and no place for prima donnas who have had their chance.
Some time between now and Tuesday-week when Parliament sits again and Caucus reconvenes, Gillard, Rudd and the Labor powerbrokers need to decide if either of them have any hope of clawing back a shred of credibility after a battle that is set to only become more bloody.
Because at present it looks like the war is all about spite and self-interest. No one’s even pretending it’s about the good of the voters. If these two are the only candidates, neither will be able stand in the PM’s courtyard and declare they lead “a good government that lost its way.”
Who would make the short-list for a Plan C is another post. But for now plans A and B are doomed to fail no matter which one prevails.
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