I’ve never been one for obsessing about The Australian. They have an editorial slant to the right, but they also have some very high quality journos who I like to read. As a result I buy and read their paper every day and filter out their leanings. I’m sure plenty of others do the same.

Sean Leahy on Turnbull in The Courier Mail.

Yesterday, their front page (“Rudd loses ground in his homeland state and the bush”) blew up the filter.  It’s one thing to take a news angle on one part of a poll at the expense of a more complex message.  It’s another to ignore what should be, for one side of politics, an enormous, wailing emergency siren with big flashing red lights on top in order to substantiate a headline like that.

In their article, Matthew Franklin and Samantha Maiden claim “public support for Labor has plunged in regional Australia and fallen in Kevin Rudd’s home state of Queensland” as well as “a big jump in support for the Coalition among voters living outside the capital cities.” While no questions on the ETS were in the poll, the ETS was inserted as a possible cause.

Their evidence for this is various movements in Labor, Liberal and National support.  They rely on previous Newspoll surveys conducted during this term, rather than the more reliable marker - the 2007 election result. Within that context some movements are sizeable - the Nats increase of two points nationally and three points in Queensland is a good example.  Even a cursory glance at the tables show the headline misses the big story of the consistently bad result for the Coalition compared with the last election.

In all their slicing and dicing of subgroups, the Australian overlooks the most important figure: a nationwide 3.3% two-party swing to Labor since the last election. This number has floated within the margin of error for the last year.

The factors The Australian write up are just small movements since the 2007 election. There is a small swing to Labor in Queensland - within the margin of error, but still enough to net them extra seats in the Sunshine State if it’s correct. Even the much-hyped swing against Labor in the bush is just 0.4% since the election. Again, it’s within the margin of error of even this large sample size.

In addition, we don’t know exactly where the regional swing referred to on the front page is coming from. There are a lot of safe Coalition seats in the bush - if the movement away from Labor is concentrated there, it does the Coalition far less good than if it’s happening in the ‘sea change’ marginals on the east coast.

The overall numbers remain daunting for the Coalition. If the draft redistribution boundaries in NSW and Queensland are confirmed, Labor will start on 88 seats, five more than they currently have. The Coalition needs a swing to them just to stand still.

It’s hard to map the swings exactly - layering a nationwide city/country swing on top of a state-level swing will exaggerate swings in some places and understate them in others - but any way you run Newspoll’s numbers, they suggest Labor will be returned with a substantially increased majority. On this swing, no incumbent Labor MP would lose.

In the capital cities, there’s a big lift for Labor of 5.2%. Most marginal seats are located in the state capitals, especially in their outer suburbs. This strong performance in the capital cities makes it virtually impossible for the Coalition to gain the number of seats from Labor it would need to form government.

We saw something like this in Tony Blair’s first re-election in 2001 - a large number of outer suburban seats swung further to New Labour at that election because many mortgage belt voters hadn’t quite trusted the party with the economy the first time round.

While there is muted movement in NSW and Queensland, there are big swings to Labor in the other states: 4.2% in Victoria, 7.3% in Western Australia, and a near unbelievable 8.6% in South Australia. This should put a stop to talk of WA as a major weakness for the ALP - that swing is enough to easily gain four Perth seats (Swan, Stirling, Cowan and Canning).

Labor might not gain the exact seats you would expect from a straightforward uniform swing - regional NSW might not provide as many gains as you would expect from the pendulum, and seats like Cowper and Calare will be hard going - but the ALP is still on track to gain as many as a dozen new seats, as well as its redistribution gains, and end up at close to 100 seats.

In addition, the state swings are enough to clearly take out five Coalition frontbenchers: Louise Markus (assuming she gains the preselection for Macquarie that she’s nominated for), Christopher Pyne, Michael Keenan, Andrew Southcott and Bruce Billson. Three more shadow ministers from regional NSW, Bob Baldwin, John Cobb and Luke Hartsuyker would all be struggling to hang on. If you believe Newspoll there are only small swings in regional NSW, but all three are on margins of 1.2% or less and have very little room for error.

Overall, Labor would not lose a single seat and would gain a healthy swag. Clearly, no “plunge” in support for Labor and no “big jump in support” for their opponents.

It’s a disastrous poll for the Coalition, it shows fundamental weaknesses for them in key states and should have been called that way by The Australian.

- Tim Gartrell is the CEO of Auspoll and a former National Secretary of the ALP.

Most commented

50 comments

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    • Old Clive says:

      07:12am | 29/09/09

      What slant did you say you were on, sooner or later ewes are a going down where ewes blong. This is Whitlam revisited. Long Dive Chairman Rudd.

    • Kate says:

      08:41am | 29/09/09

      Tim, what a heap of leftist rot. Kevin Rudd is due to go to the polls by the end of next year - I tip that Rudd will stay in for two terms, just long enough to ruin our country then the coalition will have plenty to do to get the economy back on track.
      ...And in recent months the NSW State Government has lurched from one crisis to another, most of its own making. The Premier seems to have withdrawn into paranoid isolation, blaming everyone but himself for his own mismanagement, the NSW Government was so on the nose among voters internal polling showed Labor generally was being damaged in NSW.

    • Patrick says:

      09:20am | 29/09/09

      So the Coalition has traded its metropolitan votes for regional ones. Gee…...they are really onto a winning strategy there. Have they been asking Lawrence Springborg for advice on how to win elections?

    • Ron Roberts says:

      09:22am | 29/09/09

      Simply apply Mr Gartrell’s logic in paragraph one to the rest of his scribblings and the end result is the general worth of this article as a piece of political punditry

    • RT says:

      09:25am | 29/09/09

      Kate: does the truth (that the Federal Coalition is making no progress in the polls) really hurt THAT much that you attempt to shoot the messenger?  While no ALP supporter myself, I think coalition supporters might have to wait more than two terms to get their side back in. The next Liberal PM is not even in parliament at the moment, I reckon.

    • Douglas says:

      09:25am | 29/09/09

      What is the ‘Opposition Organ’ on about? Howard-grievers will have long enough in the wilderness to understand (eventually) that Australia is over their miserable, mean-spirited, dirty politics. Open the door and take a good deep breath of cleansing air.

    • Julia (not THAT one) says:

      09:32am | 29/09/09

      Wishful thinking, Tim. Quite frankly just because you want him gone, doesn’t mean he will go.

      Turnbull’s got the goods.

      Now if Labor could produce someone with more than just a narcssistic need to get his name in the history books….

    • Me says:

      09:56am | 29/09/09

      Julia, 9:32am

      “Turnbull’s got the goods.

      Now if Labor could produce someone with more than just a narcssistic need to get his name in the history books…. “


      HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Come down with a case of political dyslexia have we?

    • fredn says:

      10:05am | 29/09/09

      Your article states the bleeding obvious. The two preceding comments have got to be satire. An ability to read poll numbers is a left wing plot?

    • iansand says:

      10:18am | 29/09/09

      Julia (not THAT one) @ 9:32 Have you ever met, or spoken to, Malcolm Turnbull? “...someone with more than just a narcssistic need to get his name in the history books…” describes him perfectly.  His problem is that the electorate seems to have cottoned on to that particular aspect of his personality and they don’t seem to like it.  And no amount of talent, brilliance or “goods” will shift that perception.

    • Mark B says:

      10:35am | 29/09/09

      We have replaced Howard Haters with Rudd Rage. Both were/are small groups of hardliners, and the latter pop up in blogs to rant the kind of stuff we see above, including attempts to move the now famous “narsissitic” diagnosis from Mr Turnbull to Mr Rudd. The Australian generally supports the Rudd Ragers, presumably to maintain the interest of its readership constituency. To do this though, The Australian often publishes poor quality journalism that amounts to little more than dog-whistle and ambulance chasing, despite Mr Hartigans recent assertion that his paper sought quality journalism. It seems to me that the coalition parties are experiencing the cost of Mr Howard’s refusal of renewal; I have little doubt that if he had handed over to Mr Costello in early 2006, we would have Prime Minister Costello now, and Mr Rudd would have had to wait until 2010. You would have to be an extreme optimist to believe that there is a chance of a change of government in 2010, especially with Mr Turnbull as leader. When the Opposition has to resort to juvenile name calling of Dr Henry, and be palpably dissappointed when the Government gets a tick from Mr Stevens, then you know they are living on a hope rather than a plan. Clearly the Nationals have been in decline for years as part of the Coalition, and they need to re-invent themselves quickly, or go the way of the Democrats. The Australian is failing to act in the public interest, and indeed the interests of the Liberal Party, by publishing some of its fantasy content, rather than more of the needed critical analysis of Dr Van Onselen, and increasingly better analysis from Mr Shanahan. That way, it won’t look like a poor quality rag, as it did during the last weeks of the 2007 election campaign, and more recently during the lead-up to Utegate. If it doesn’t, it will find it very difficult to move to a subscription model.

    • watty says:

      10:41am | 29/09/09

      I think Gartrell’s likening of the Rudd Government to the “success” of Tony Blair should send a shudder down everyone’s spine ...Lib.Nat,Green,and especially Labor.

      Blair’s ego was his downfall and will be Rudd’s as well. It would help if the Coalition ridded itself of the other great ego Malcolm Allbull.

    • David says:

      10:44am | 29/09/09

      Tim, your blatant dishonesty is frankly sad and pathetic.  The electorate might be apathetic and slow on the uptake at times.  But most of us grasp the basic fact that you can twist and distort “lies, damned lies, and statistics” to pitch any propaganda angle you want. And that’s what you’ve done.

      You know as well as I do, that this was the fundamental point of the Australian article - To comment on the MOST RECENT change/s in support for the respective parties.  That is, the movements in support from the June 2009 quarter, into the September quarter 2009. 

      How people’s opinions may be changing NOW is what counts…. that is the whole point of their article.

      What have you done?  Based your entire, dishonest, partisan propaganda rant on a comparison of an entirely different pair of stats, (ie) the OPINION poll for the most recent Sept 2009 quarter…. against the ELECTION poll way back in November 2007!  What do you think we are…. complete dolts?!?!  FFS Tim.  Who’s your mentor… Sir Humphrey Appleby??

      You’re all a pack of filthy liars, to quote my big sister.

    • pc says:

      10:57am | 29/09/09

      Hi guys,
      Tim, like you I often read the Oz, heart heavy with the burden. Perhaps not for too much longer though. A friend of mine has stopped reading it entirely in order to determine whether there is anything the Oz can tell you that you cant hear somewhere else. (She still reads Paul Kelly) And it’s not looking good for the Oz. So far, my frequent tests of my friends current affairs are always close to full marks, and she is even able to guess what the columnists and op -ed’s say. I dont think thats a fair test and so I dont let her be a smart arse about it. Many of those columnists write the same article week in week out.

      The series of ‘left’ articles seem a pretty lame attempt to win back those sick of hearing how much Liberals hate the Ruddbott and Julia. Guy Rundle at crikey does a good criticism of these and predicts the right wingers invited to contribute will form a more intellectually formidable series of arguments. (I dont include Julia in that, I know she is smarter than a fifth grader.)

      Most of these will probably include hand wringing over a fictional debt, the size of government and possibly even the appearance of a group of weak powerless people to persecute. (I have a feeling theres another round of boat people bashing coming.) I dont know if I need to read them. Havent I heard it all before?

    • Tim Gartrell says:

      11:09am | 29/09/09

      Hi Kate, Robert and the other “righties”. Thanks for blogging and yes I have a left leaning. Let’s go beyond that and have a discussion. How about the substance of the article? What did you make of the Newspoll aggregation tables? Why do you thing there are such big swings in SA, WA, etc. I’d be interested to hear from people with the other filter. Regards, Tim

    • Merlin says:

      11:09am | 29/09/09

      Turnbull won’t be going anywhere, precious little Kevin won’t be able to get rid of him as easy as he thinks. Kevin will win the next election no doubt, but by then Australia will be learning what an arrogant, precious little poser he really is and guess what Turnbull will still be there when everyone can’t stand the sight of dear little Kevin anymore. Can’t wait!

    • Ben says:

      11:27am | 29/09/09

      “I’ve never been one for obsessing about The Australian. They have an editorial slant to the right”

      Hmmm… as opposed to the totally unbiased, straight-down-the centre SMH, The Age etc??

    • Old Clive says:

      11:35am | 29/09/09

      What substance, if there had been any substance they wouldn’t have been in opposition for ten years, there was no substance then and there is none now, go and have another drag of your weed, the Nerd is on the down slope and dragging the party with hymn{sic}. He is an egomaniac and all his press interviews disclose that point rather well, even his appearances at the dispatch show a great degree of the lack of substance of a great leader and only reflect those of a grate nerd. Your only hope is up Julia.

    • David says:

      11:39am | 29/09/09

      Tim, thanks for the suggestion for dialogue re “the Newspoll aggregation tables”, and in particular, vis-a-vis the “swings in SA, WA, etc”.

      To do that, we must first lay an honest, and clearly defined framework for a dialogue on those specific points. 

      Now, you’ve first asked for comment “...about the substance of the article?”  As per my blasting of you (apologies) previously, the “substance” of your article is dishonest and deceptive.  Why?  Because you have based your whole article on comparing a different pair of stats to those The Australian emphasised.  And then, via lengthy elaboration on that different pair of stats (ie, baffle ‘em with BS?), you have made a case for different conclusions to The Australian, whilst obviously implying that The Australian got it wrong.  Classic straw man Tim.

      So, if you will concede that the “substance” of your article is based entirely on your deliberate emphasising of a DIFFERENT pair of stats to those The Australian emphasised, then perhaps we can move on to a specific discussion of the SA, WA poll movements?

      But even in attempting that, you must first define a clear, honest framework.  Do you want to discuss SA, WA stats vis-a-vis the June 09 vs Sep 09 quarters (ie, the most recent movements)?

      Or, do you (as per the “substance” of your article) wish to distract and deceive, by blurring the issue with discussion of SA, WA stats vis-a-vis the Nov 07 ELECTION poll vs Sep 09 OPINION poll?

      BTW, I support none of the parties…. because they’re all “filthy liars”.

    • Scott Morrison MP says:

      11:41am | 29/09/09

      We’re very sensitive Tim. One critical write up on one poll analysis by those ‘rightist” progandists at the Australian (as you’ve labelled them) and you spring into ‘print’. I thought Kevin had the mortgage on being precious.

      We can all read the polls. If Labor arrogantly thinks that gives them an excuse to do whatever they want, at some point the Australian people will have something to say about that. As former campaign directors, we both know that’s true, regardless of what the polls say today.

    • Al says:

      11:53am | 29/09/09

      Hi Tim

      There is no doubt that the coalition is in trouble in the polls and that they will not win the next election.

      However comparing polling this far out from an election with the previous election result is pointless because most voters are not engaged and will go with the incumbent.

      You also have to remember that the phenomenon of a party gaining large numbers of votes in strongly held seats is more often working class labor seat phenomenon than a rural phenomenon, where numbers tend to remain more static.

      It is also ironic that you criticise the Oz for taking this approach to polls when you seemingly (by your silence) considered it ok for them to report ‘leaked’ ALP “polling” with ridiculous suggestions such as the one that Joe Hockey would lose North Sydney (11% Margin).

    • twobob says:

      12:05pm | 29/09/09

      I’m a bit shocked by the anti-left wing vitriol displayed in a lot of the comments here. As a professional statistician I can say that the poll results define a few things clearly.
      1 That the public is happy with Rudd ( I am not)
      2 That the coalition is on a hiding to nothing in the next election and
      3 That shooting the messenger wont alter the outcome
      It seems to me that the Australian public are an increasingly shallow bunch who wont listen to difficult arguments and who are easily bought. Howard showed it and Rudd has confirmed it. I feel we will have a Labor government for a considerable period to come and given the demographic support for the coalition we may all be witnessing the end of the coalition as a political force.

    • pc says:

      12:12pm | 29/09/09

      Hi David and Scott,

      I cant speak for Tim, but having read all of your respective posts its pretty obvious you are going to continue to delude yourselves into believing that the opposition are gaining ground. They are not, and its only going to get worse if you fail to properly analyse why. The extent of the analysis in the Oz so far hasnt got much further than the voters are stupid. What is more hilarious is that you think thats going to fly.  The oz is helping to dig the coalitions electoral grave for a generation.

    • shabangabang says:

      12:21pm | 29/09/09

      “Yesterday, their front page (“Rudd loses ground in his homeland state and the bush”)”
      What the Liberal staffers, sorry, The Australian journalists forgot to add is that it will take about 50 years until Labor lose enough ground for the Libs to win.
      @twobob, get used to the extremists here, most of them bow at the feet of the butt-licker John Coward. Just goes to show what a pack of whingers would be in power if the narcisicst could get his act together.

    • Michael says:

      12:25pm | 29/09/09

      As a Liberal voter I can’t tell you how disappointed I am with Turnbull and his team, they are a mess! I really wish they weren’t and could get the publics support and get rid of this over bearing, self obsessed arroagant little nerd of a PM. If Labor have to be in Government then I wish it were Gillard as PM.

    • Gibbot says:

      12:32pm | 29/09/09

      PC - I think Scott’s point is that we should be ignoring polling data because he’s here to tell us what we really think. If you missed this it could be because he’s a little difficult to understand when he has his fingers in his ears and shouts ‘NANANANA’.

    • David says:

      12:44pm | 29/09/09

      pc, just like Tim not addressing The Australian’s core point, you’ve not addressed the “substance” of posters comments either.  For my part, I’ve said nothing whatsoever concerning whether I think the Coalition is, or is not, “gaining ground”.  The sole point I have specifically highlighted, is that Tim has deliberately NOT compared apples with apples in his statistical analysis.  Therefore, by virtue of not comparing apples with apples, the “substance” of Tim’s article (ie), statements and implications to the effect that The Australian analysis is invalid, is pure straw man propaganda.  A blatant smoke ‘n mirrors deception.

      That is not a pro-right comment.  All the pollies, and all the media do it to varying degrees.  Lies, damned lies, and statistics, twisted and distorted to suit a Self-serving end.

      Now, if you wish my “opinion” on the polls in general, very simple… I agree 100% with twobob’s comment.

    • Mark B says:

      12:49pm | 29/09/09

      @twobob 12:05pm: it may be frustrating for you and others that the “Australian public” don’t give a damn about “difficult arguments” until three months before an election, but that’s always been the way it is, not “increasingly” so, nor “shallow”. Australians are sceptical and pragmatic voters. We go to elections every three years or so, and based on evidence and argument, generally give one team a mandate for three years after which most of us go back to getting on with it. We, more often than not, vote the team in that looks like it is going to be best to do what needs to be done, and we get turned off by humbug. We also like, or have no problem with concurrent State and Federal governments of different political persuasion, which might well be the explanation for WA, and doom for NSW and QLD Labor governments in the future if the opposition teams there look competitive. Between elections only a few of us engage in the sport of political debate, while the rest disengage other than mildly acknowledging success. Something like, “Geez mate, we seem to have got away with this f….ng global depression”. “Yeah mate, bloody good thing the Chinese need the coal and iron and the government stumped up with the cash handouts”. “Shit yeah, bloody lucky; and that prick Rudd seems to have got himself appointed into the United Nations or whatever”. “Can’t be a bad thing mate”. “Yeah, you’re right mate; want one for the road?”.

    • pc says:

      01:52pm | 29/09/09

      Mark B, In order to flesh this Oz/Liberal - hopeless future thing out a little further I want to pick up on a point you made about Dr Van Olsen - hes name is peter I think, so Im going to call him peter. Anyway he is an articulate voice on the right, I am going to speculate on why. I think it is because he has a phd and therefore doesnt feel the need to try and outsmart himself, unlike many of the other Oz writers, whose work rarely lives up to their ambitions.

      And Mark B’s second post is dedicated to helping the liberals understand why the Ruddbott is so popular and no 1. Management of the gfc. Peter knows this and has been trying to prod the coalition into some sort of action on post stimulus economic policy and a response to the cprs/ets. They, like most of the liberals, are just pretending its all a bad dream, as Gibbot so elegantly explained.

      It’s not a bad dream - the risk of deeper global recession is still real as is the threat of climate change. The coalition is unpopular because it refuses to wake up.

    • Lobster says:

      02:13pm | 29/09/09

      Just thought I’d float my idea, see what happens:  Let’s make voting optional.

      I know the arguments against non-compulsory voting (avoids the sensationalism and fanfare like we see in America).  I just wonder if Rudd’s populist policies would be less effective because the people who are likely to vote for him because he “seems nice” and “he gave me $900” are the same ones who are politically apathetic and generally too lazy to vote if they don’t have to, and therefore he’d be less likely to spend us into debt oblivion.

      I also wonder if the political baby-speak we’ve been getting lately would be less pronounced because the politicians wouldn’t be thinking of the lowest common denominator all the time.  Just thought I’d put it out there.

    • Mark B says:

      02:50pm | 29/09/09

      @pc 1.52pm: I agree with you. The GFC could yet yield a double dip, no-one really knows, and the Government is managing it well taking the sound advice of Dr Henry and Mr Stevens, both of whom Australia is very fortunate to have at the healm of their respective organisations. While Australia is coping well at this stage, the rest of the developed world could go backwards again, and China clearly has a lot of challenges ahead.

      The Liberals seem to be paralysed, and they have a leader who is clearly not suited to politics. My personal view is that Mr Howard was ultimately a disaster for the Liberals, and has probably wrecked the Liberal Party. Given that the Government is new and immediately faced the GFC, they have done a remarkable job on trainer wheels. They will get better as they settle into the role, already looking like they have been at it for years. Yesterday Senator Coonan looked like she had just heard of the death of a close friend when Mr Stevens gave the Government a cautious tick.

      The Liberals have got a long way to go before they get back on their feet, and in encouraging the fanciful illusion of a potential win in 2010, The Australian does everyone a disservice, especially itself.

    • pc says:

      03:20pm | 29/09/09

      Mark B, “Yesterday Senator Coonan looked like she had just heard of the death of a close friend when Mr Stevens gave the Government a cautious tick.”, Yeah I saw that too, its rare to see a politician so shaken, and I almost felt sorry for her but then on Lateline I saw a report from “the bush” explaining the vast gap in climate change knowledge between rural australians and everybody else in the world - U.N, IMF, G20, OECD etc. The Oz has a lot to answer for in this regard. (You discussed the gfc so I thought I’d move on to climate change) Prof Ross Garnaut didnt name the climate change sharks, last night, but I will -climate sharks -  Those exploiting the ignorance of desparate people, for their own wealth and power - Barnaby Joyce, Wilson Tuckey, Steve Fielding. Malcolm Turnbull is confronting the political limits of his own party and I’m not sure the sharks wont eat him.  Also on the point of climate change I think it should be added that while people must cut their own emissions it is necessary for the state to act. The government is doing this and as time goes on I am more convinced that the costs of reductions will not be as great as I previously thought. I realise this was one of the final conclusions of the Garnaut report - mitigation will result in more growth and better economic outcomes than unmitigated, but like the oz I am just catching up.

    • Tim Gartrell says:

      04:12pm | 29/09/09

      Thanks Scott Morrison MP for joining in. It’s good to see an MP jumping into the thick of it. To respond, I didn’t reply quickly to Newpoll out of sensitivity more a view that a counterpoint to their interpretation was warranted. That’s best done promptly. Nor was I worried about the headline being critical. I just disagreed with the analysis.
      I agree that parties that have a strong lead need to be wary of complacency - but I don’t think the Rudd Government does that.
      We have both been campaign directors. That’s why we go to the detail of the tables and if I was on your side of politics I’d be worried about SA, WA and Victoria. Regards, Tim PS. A small but important point - I didn’t label anyone a progandist.

    • jay says:

      04:26pm | 29/09/09

      @ Lobster - uh, voting is optional in this country - the attendance to a voting booth on polling day is compulsory - what you do with your ballot after getting your name marked off the roll is up to you…

      It’s just under the Howard Junta, the ABS stopped reporting informal vote information, as then people would twig they don’t have to mark a ballot if they so wish…

    • Mark B says:

      04:30pm | 29/09/09

      @pc; I agree again. I watched Professor Garnaut last night and thought his analysis regarding the seriousness with which the Chinese Government is now considering climate change was very encouraging. Not so good for coal producers I suppose, but it looks like a growing demand for uranium. An ETS is as inevitable as the GST was, more complex because it is global, but we will adapt to it as we did with the GST. It was pretty clear that Professor Garnaut was pointing the bone at the troglodytes who are misleading the unknowing. I suppose they will argue that the Chinese leaders are stupid! But, as we say, there are still a few out there that will claim gravity can be denied, especially if their bullshit keeps them in a well paid job.

    • PJ says:

      04:39pm | 29/09/09

      Tim,

      Which way does the SMH lean?

    • Adam says:

      04:56pm | 29/09/09

      Scott Morrison if you don’t think The Australian is a right-wing newspaper through and through then your mob will be out of office a lot longer than you could imagine.

    • pc says:

      05:19pm | 29/09/09

      Mark B, we’re on a roll here. I am worried by the difficulty in breaking the sharks grip on their prey. Until rural australia realises these sharks are not acting in their interests (But directly againt them) it will be very difficult to get anything sensible out of the bush and I fear further separation between rural and metropolitan australians.

    • Scott Morrison MP says:

      05:20pm | 29/09/09

      Just getting into the spirit of things Tim. Propogandist is what I meant, I must have been reading (as well as spelling) between the lines. Nice to know you care Tim, must be keeping you up at nights. Cheers

    • Mark B says:

      05:47pm | 29/09/09

      @pc 5:19pm: I was brought up on a farm, by a farmer, whose father and grandfather were farmers. I got a Science degree and moved away from farming but good farmers are good scientists, and I am optimistic the good ones will see through the bullshit. I am also optimistic that come next year you will see a good plan for rural Australia come out of the Government, and this will include better accommodation for them in an ETS, consistent with the rest of the world. Why do this now, when we can watch the coalition “partners” bash each other up? The coalition parties need a good electoral routing to get them to wake up; and they are going to get one on the current course and speed.

    • Eithne Leita says:

      06:24pm | 29/09/09

      I’m just waiting for a poll do be done on K Rudd’s leadership and other Labour Party choices eg Tanner.  I understand that the Opposition don’t have much appeal right now but I don’t get the support for Rudd.  He just seems soooooooo fake, everything he does seems so contrived and controlled.  He’s like a robot programmed to churn out whatever is most palatable on the day ugghhhh..

    • pc says:

      11:05pm | 29/09/09

      Good on you Mark B, I have often feared the polarisation between rural and urban australia was something I just had to get used to. But it’s not. We are all citizens after all.

    • Bruce says:

      08:57am | 30/09/09

      I don’t have a problem with the Labor Party I just have a problem with precious Kevin Rudd being the Leader and PM. I can’t understand how he is so popular????? Maybe they should do a poll how many people would prefer Julia Gillard as leader and I’m fairly sure she would be a prefered PM over Rudd hands down. As for Malcolm and the Liberals…well there’s not alot to say, it’s all been said, they need to re invent themselves without Turnbull and most of his frontbench. They need new blood and they should get to it because they have plenty of time to do this while they are in oppositon. The Labor Party did it now it’s their turn. They are just wasting their time by sticking to their guns with Turnbull and crew leading them.

    • Vinny says:

      10:19am | 30/09/09

      I don’t think it’s that Rudd is so popular it is more to do with Turnbull and the opposition are in such a mess that there just isn’t any alternative at the moment. A drovers dog would out poll Turnbull and the Liberals at the moment. Little Kevin is just in luck at present with no real opposition.

    • Karen says:

      10:50am | 01/10/09

      Yes Kevie might look like the hero today for the Labor Party, but it won’t take long for this arrogant, nerdy little show pony to lose his flavour and costing the party votes. As Vinny said he is in luck at the moment, no real opposition, the GFC would have been handled very similar no matter if it were Liberal or Labor in Government. So his claim of victory isn’t because of Kevin, he only did what any PM would have done.

    • tropicrob says:

      01:44pm | 02/10/09

      Tim,
      Any chance the leadership “threat” is a grand gesture to allow Turnbull to exit politics in the best light - on a self-created point of principle?
      Anyone who has seen his track record over the years knew it would all end in tears (I think Keating said this first) and now the gold ring looks unobtainable on several fronts (ALP win or 2, inability to retain leadership long term) what is the Golden Child to do?
      I don’t know about Big Biz but it’s Politics 101 to NEVER threaten to resign. If you have the numbers the drama isn’t needed, and if you don’t have the numbers you’re gone.
      As our American friends would say it’s like a turkey voting for an early Thanksgiving.
      So what is Mal to do? Get rolled, go to the back bench and face the rest of his life with a smelly albatross around his neck instead of Hermes tie?
      Or take the “bold and principled” path, go down in flames, covered in glory and move back to private enterprise.
      After all Hewson gets a run in the media because he is perceived as being the guy who lost because he stuck to his guns, etc, etc. And MT is much more concerned how history judges him than John.
      Just a thought…....

    • Peter P says:

      02:30pm | 02/10/09

      It doesn’t matter how Turnbull goes out, as long as the Liberals can find another Leader capable of holding Rudd and his cronies to account. I think they need to get rid of more than just Turnbull though, a few new faces would be good. Anything will do because I feel alot of people are becoming very sick and tired of self obsessed Rudd.

    • orange says:

      08:14pm | 23/10/09

      well tim you should know letting the team down how many times have you done it?

    • http://rarzorz.com/class/ says:

      01:00pm | 02/10/12

      I you are involving 5lbs as 10 days. I also have exercised for the last 5 days effectively, So i don’t know how anyway it work as diet products devoid of having actual. the organization grit regarding perform been specifically upped. coach anyone how to to much time since i have been employed by out 5 days back to back, i saw it become a horrible overeat eater. i saw it hunger as for detrimental junk foods and fairly sweet dreams on a. i merely can’t protect against average joe. until recently! in the 5 days, And i’ve not taken associated with junk foods in any respect! since i have posess zero hunger, I has the ability to state that not on your life regarding cheese burgers and then pizzas (Which I can’t actually do before getting to).

 

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