One of the justifications that the government uses for the roll-out of the $43 billion National Broadband Network is the desire by Australian householders to have access to better and faster landline services. However, a survey of the available data suggests that Australians are turning increasingly to mobile communications devices, and abandoning fixed lines.
Mobile phone services have grown rapidly over the last 10 years. At the same time fixed-line telephone services have stagnated. This growth in the take up of the mobile phone has coincided with a rise in the number of household consumers who do not access to a fixed-line telephone service. The choice of not having a fixed-line telephone service seems to be driven by age and living arrangements.
Younger adults living in group households are most likely to go without this service and older adults in family households are most likely to retain the land line.
The take up of mobile phone services in the last ten years has been phenomenal. Data from the Parliamentary Library reveals that:
- The number of mobile telephone services surpassed the number of fixed-line telephone services in 2000–01.
- Between 1999–00 and 2009-10 the number of mobile phone services grew at an annual average rate of 11 per cent.
- In this period the number of mobile phone services has almost tripled from 8 million to almost 22.5 million.
However, if you include all devices that are connected to mobile wireless broadband, via a dongle or data card connected to a computer, then the Australian Communications Media Authority (ACMA) counted 26 million mobile services in 2009–10; the number of fixed-line telephone services peaked at 11.7 million in 2003-04, and since 2003–04 the number of fixed-line telephone services has declined at an annual average rate of about two per cent.
In 2009–10 the number of fixed line services had declined to 10.6 million, about the same as the number of fixed-line services in operation 10 years previously.
Despite the fact the there are now more than enough mobile phones for every man, woman and child in Australia, not everyone has taken up the technology. Research by Roy Morgan, on behalf of ACMA, found that 85 per cent of the population aged 14 and over has a mobile phone. This up is from 79 per cent in 2005-06.
The take up of mobile phones is most prevalent amongst younger and the middle aged adults. For instance, persons aged 25-34 were most likely to own a mobile phone (93 per cent) and persons aged 65 and over least likely (66 per cent).
Market research by Roy Morgan, on behalf of ACMA, has found that proportion of household consumers, aged 14 and over, with access to a fixed-line telephone has declined significantly in recent years.
- Between June 2005 and June 2010 the proportion of household consumers with access to a fixed-line service declined from 95 per cent to 86 per cent.
- In June 2010 there were 2.3 million persons without access to a fixed-line telephone, up by 35 per cent from 1.7 million in 2009.
This trend is more noticeable among some demographic groups than others. There are quite marked differences in household consumers’ access to a fixed-line telephone by age and household type.
By age, younger adults are least likely to have a fixed-line telephone service. For instance only 67 per cent for persons aged 14 to 24 and 72 per cent for persons aged 25 to 34 have access to a fixed-line telephone at home. Older age groups are more likely to have a fixed line telephone service. For instance, 98 per cent for persons aged 65 and over have a fixed line telephone service at home.
By living arrangement, people living in a share house were least likely to have a fixed-line service and those living with a partner were most likely. Only 71 per cent of persons living in a share house had a fixed-line, compared with 94 per cent of persons living with a partner without children.
The Australian data reflects trends elsewhere. The Economist reported in August 2009 that an estimated 25 per cent of households in the USA rely entirely on mobile phones, a share that was expected to increase rapidly. “If the decline of the landline continues at its current rate, the last cord will be cut sometime in 2025,” reported the paper.
The increase in mobile phone use at the expense of fixed lines is likely to be replicated in coming years with computers, and new handheld, mobile devices, such as the iPad, grow in popularity.
This week’s announcement by Apple of its iCloud music service, with similar music services offered by Google and Amazon, demonstrates the trend towards mobile wireless devices at the cost of traditional fixed-line services.
On current trends, the final roll-out of the NBN will coincide with the demise of fixed lines to many households.
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