While the national focus has been on a carbon tax, piecemeal Federal and State Government policies encouraging households to take up renewable energy have been overcooking parts of a cake that had only started to bake.

By the power vested in me by solar! Pic: Thinkstock

Two very different segments of the solar energy sector are now experiencing extreme turbulence because of well-meaning but flawed efforts by policymakers to push households into a greener future.

The household renewable energy industry is in flux. Over-generous State feed-in tariffs, an unstable rebate platform and the Federal Government’s “one size fits all” renewable energy certificate trading scheme are culprits.

There are important differences between renewable energy technologies like photovoltaic (PV) energy, or rooftop panels that feed into the grid, and solar hot water systems. Policy-makers did everyone a disservice by lumping them together.

PV panels can’t convert produce energy efficiently without lots of sunlight, and nor can the output be efficiently stored at the point of generation.

On the other hand, solar hot water systems store their output in an insulated tank for later use with little, if any, electricity drawn from the grid to move it around. Hot water typically makes up 25 percent of a household’s energy bill so there are attractions in systems that reduce electricity use efficiently. 

Until recently, the fledgling solar hot water industry had been growing rapidly with a 61 percent increase in just three years.

A winding back of various rebates – including a Federal scheme seemingly because policymakers had bizarrely linked it to the disastrous home insulation scheme – has caused sales to fall by 40 percent.

Rebates that reward householders for feeding electricity back into the grid have also been reduced but the PV sector continues to boom.

State governments clearly made those feed-in tariffs overly generous and an unaffordable drain on the public purse. The most glaring example was the NSW scheme recently axed by the incoming O’Farrell government.

The ultimate intention of rebates was to abate CO2 production. PV does this - but not very efficiently.

The Grattan Institute think tank says the net cost of offsetting a tonne of carbon using PV is $200-300 per tonne. Solar hot water comes in at $30 a tonne or better. 

The real acceleration in solar take-up was driven by the establishment of a trading market in renewable energy certificates (RECs) - and here’s where the real lesson lies.

RECs are created by a national regulator, using a multiplier tied to the efficiency of the system being installed. Householders generally allocate RECs to installers in return for discounts or extended payment terms. 

Installers then assume the risk - and headaches - of trading RECs on a heavily regulated and bureaucratic market.

Last year, the Federal Government moved to annually set both a starting price for RECs and a target for how many would be created. It wanted to provide certainty to the industry but succeeded in one goal only: stimulating PV sales.

It set in train a cycle where, as the price of RECs increased, the cost of installations fell and sales soared. When the number of RECs available grew too fast, their value on the market fell. 
The Government price for RECs this year was $40. Last time I looked, RECs for solar hot water were trading at $25.

The Government has stepped in to change these settings, and the Federal Budget signalled a winding down of the scheme.  For many in the industry, however, it will be too little too late.

I’m hearing horror stories of PV installers finding themselves in a trading system that’s inflexible and bureaucratic to the point that it’s hard, if not impossible, to hedge against fluctuations in certificate values.

All this will change radically, if and when a carbon tax is introduced. Householders may be given cash or tax breaks to compensate their energy costs and persuade them to switch to renewable energy. Politics permitting, we will open an emissions trading market.

Before the Government throws out the baby with the solar-heated policy bathwater it needs to take a deep breath and more broadly consult people who get their hands dirty helping Australians go green.

69 comments

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    • deb says:

      07:01am | 21/05/11

      we installed solar hot water and solar panels .One 45kg bottle of gas has lasted 5.5 months .I believe the savings speak for themselves. Our solar panels have us in credit for electricity from day one.Sure the initial outlay is hard but long term benefits overcome the short term pain. Staying warm in the winter is a plus and we still turn off all appliances not in use ect..
      Locals thought us crazy,but they are the ones having problems paying the ever soaring power bills and complaining about the cold.The gov. should be encouraging everyone who can to be going solar!

    • Old Bloke says:

      02:55pm | 21/05/11

      deb, you did not mention the subsidy the other users paid to get you your cost reduction.

    • Adam Diver says:

      02:59pm | 21/05/11

      Only if you remove yourself from the grid will you do anyone (taxpayer, environment, power generators) other than youself any good.

      You are essentially having your cake and eating it to, at the expense of everyone else and then boasting about it.

    • Will Hayes says:

      04:36pm | 21/05/11

      Great Job, I wish more people could think like you!!  Imagine if everyone who could afford it did this!!!

    • DaveinPerth says:

      04:14pm | 22/05/11

      @deb - “...  but long term benefits overcome the short term pain.” Incorrect. My tax dollars have been used to overcome your short term pain. My electricity bill is used to overcome your long term pain.

      Your solar panels are the result of populist drivel, and have done measurable harm to the economy.

    • Nheuboy says:

      09:37am | 03/06/11

      Your doing a great thing. Ignore the ignorant.

    • acotrel says:

      07:23am | 21/05/11

      ‘Before the Government throws out the baby with the solar-heated policy bathwater it needs to take a deep breath and more broadly consult people who get their hands dirty helping Australians go green. ‘

      What, talk to scientists and engineers?  What would they know?

    • Harquebus says:

      10:45am | 21/05/11

      They know that there is no such thing as green energy.

    • Sony B Goode says:

      11:08am | 21/05/11

      Australian industry will go green if and when there is a sound business case for it not because the government runs around claiming the sky is falling.

      When scientists are more interesting in pursuing a cause rather than real knowledge, their opinions can’t be trusted.

    • Will Hayes says:

      04:46pm | 21/05/11

      As a Chemical Engineer in training I’d have to say Engineers and Scientists would know a hell of a lot about how stuff works in reality rather than what politicians think. The energy needed to heat water is massive hence Chris is suggesting this is the most effective way to reduce usage.
      Scientists agendas lie mostly in reasearching technology or behaviour be it climate impact or crab mating cycles, again far more valid than politicians.

    • ZSRenn says:

      08:31am | 21/05/11

      All this whoo-ha to try and save 0.073% of global emmisions. Failed scheme after failed scheme with more in the pipeline.

      Good work Australia!

    • Harquebus says:

      10:46am | 21/05/11

      Renewable energy schemes will always fail because there is no such thing.

    • Sony B Goode says:

      09:52am | 21/05/11

      A clear example of government meddling with markets. Solar and other “green” solutions should stand or fall on their own merits not on the random wishes and ideology of our beloved leaders.

      The harsh reality is that solar is totally uneconomical, and is progressing so slowly that it will be a decade before it is vaguely competitive.

      Meanwhile back at the ranch, the nsw labor government has allowed the electricity companies to charge on the basis of return on investment. Firstly they, labor,  let them spend a couple of lazy billion on infrastructure pushing up pricing, but then they subsidise solar which means any drop in usage flowing on from households taking up solar pushes up the price for the remaining usage of electricity effectively neutralising any savings from using solar.

      Well done the geniuses in the labor party. Utter MORONS!

    • Scranbag says:

      08:31am | 22/05/11

      “Meddling with markets?”

      Without some democratically focussed gov’t attention on The Markets, we’d have no reliable currency,  no bank-notes, a usurious finance system, and bucket shop “share traders”.

      We’d still have slaves, child labour, convict labour, chalk in the flour, sawdust in the bread, major industrial accidents with boilers, mad hatters or minimata diseas,  truly poisononous alcohol, vehicles unsafe to drive, and nuclear power stations spewing real filth around the planet -  to name just a few. 

      BOTH main parties have *current* policies to support existing and emerging energy technologies, by investment and subsidy.

      The last Coalition govt spent at least $1 billion on renewable energy initiatives, including rebates to private householders installing solar voltaics.  Source: Liberal Party website etc

      There’s “meddling in the markets” for you. Having an opinion is one thing. One based solely in aggressive ignorance and insult simply doesn’t cut it.

    • Marion says:

      03:48pm | 22/05/11

      Scranbag
      That’s all this one does with his posts.
      never any substance, just bluster.

    • Harquebus says:

      10:44am | 21/05/11

      A pity there is no such thing as renewable energy. Thermodynamics mate, thermodynamics. Inefficient devices like wind and solar generators are a waste of energy.

    • Peter says:

      04:25pm | 21/05/11

      @Harquebus says “there is no such thing as renewable energy”  Thermodynamics.  Steam requires +550*C to produce 175 bar force. This creates 350 megawatts of electricity. Co2 requires +100*C to produce 10,000 bar force. This creates 20,000 megawatts. Turbine/generator begins producing electricity at 9 bar force. Co2 is in excess of 9 bar force at -10*C. The failures government promotes should not be taken to represent the renewable energy developments now available.

    • Will Hayes says:

      04:53pm | 21/05/11

      Only we don’t have to mine and burn the sun, its own gravitational forces are taking care of that for us??? I would say they are a free source of energy well worth investing in. Not overnight sure, but the quicker we go green the longer it will take to run out of the resources like oil we so heavily depend on.

    • The Redman says:

      10:45am | 21/05/11

      The posts here underline the problem in determining a determined and comprehensive approach in providing energy using sustainable resources. The conservative element simply refuses to acknowledge any argument in support of moving away from fossil fuels. They fail to see any merit in the strategy.

      Combined with this pathaological hatred of the ALP, an almost religious zeal against anything the Government says or does, there doesn’t seem any way for reasoned debate to occur. When the likes of Tony Abbott and Barnaby Joyce are held up as true representatives of current conservative thinking, what hope is there for proper debate?

      There is no point in consulting the Australian people. Those that have determined that man does not affect the environment, that man induced climate change does not exist and therefore there is no reason to invest in solar, or wind, or water, have hijacked this debate with ficticious claims of economic oblivion and social destruction. Conservatives fail to even recognise the political and strategical argument for ending the western country’s reliance on middle eastern oil, the very reliance of which has directly resulted in carnage throughout the region and the tolerance of despotic and tyrannical rulers. Of course, even if I accept in the spurious argument that man does not affect the environment, where is the argument of using natural resources to make our skies, seas, rivers and streets cleaner? Is it so wrong to work towards a regime of energy and food creation that does not pump poisons into the waterways, fill the sky with fumes and stench, foul the air and streets of major cities?

      And what of the alternative view? What of the Coalition policy? Their policy is merely one of blocking and criticising every single thing the Government attempts. They have no policy at all, on anything. It is very easy to gain support of the populace in general when you refuse to outline any definitive policy alternative, you make no promises to anyone, and you give everyone ther impression that when the time comes they will govern in their individual interests. We know too well that in government the Coalition will always govern for the elite few, whilst throwing crumbs from the table to the middle class who toady along in their wake, believing themselves rich and fulfilled through their material largesse.

      I fear that it will be another century before any meaningful action is taken. Nothing will occur if this climate of fear is maintained until it becomes clear that fossil fuel reserves are running out and the reliance on oil becomes completely unsustainable. Then it will not be a case of careful coonsideration, but of panicked emergency. This is the legacy that conservatives will leave this generation. I’ve no doubt that future generations will look upon the era, sigh and shake their heads in amazement and incredularity.

    • Adam Diver says:

      03:05pm | 21/05/11

      Perhaps people will take more kindly to your point of view, if you admit that Nuclear is the only viable alternative to reduce carbon emmissions. No one with an ounce of intelligence or experience thinks that renewables are large scale, affordable alternatives to generating power.

      Anyone who does not see that, is quickly dismissed, and thus you will continue to live in fear and dissapointment.

      Unless you can point to a single, stable, commercial sized renewable plant in the world, other than hydro with its obvious limitations.

    • Harquebus says:

      10:48am | 21/05/11

      If you talk energy and not costs, green does not add up. Green is subsidized with the energy from fossil fuels.

    • L. says:

      11:34am | 21/05/11

      Redman, substitute the world Green for conservative and nuclear for renewable, and you’ll see the folly of your argument.

    • Old Bloke says:

      03:00pm | 21/05/11

      Spot on.  Several people now with solar panels have confessed to me that they now do their washing, ironing and all other energy intensive activities in the early morning or evening to get the maximum solar return to the grid to get their inflated rebate.  This of course increases peak demand on coal power stations and has exactly the opposite effect intended by these woolly headed schemes!

    • Harquebus says:

      06:03pm | 21/05/11

      Nuclear is not renewable. It converts mass.

    • LC says:

      12:27pm | 21/05/11

      1. Solar panels have a average life of 5-7 years.
      2. Solar panels have an efficiency of about 10-15%, translating into roughly 1kw per m2.
      3. Solar panels contain some of the most poisonous substances known to man. Don’t believe me? Call up a solar company and say you’ve got a cracked solar panel on the roof and you’re just going to go up there, pull it off and chuck it in the bin. They will shit themselves. Just imagine how much environmental damage they would create during manufacture and disposal.

      They may find a niche for small scale power generation (likes your solar hot-water heater), but not for baseload power. That would need to be filled by nuclear, hydroelectric or better yet, tidal power (Port Phillip Bay and Sydney Harbor would be perfect locations).

    • Scranbag says:

      02:11pm | 22/05/11

      No source given, for what seems to be outdated information that understates significantly.

      Currently, solar voltaics for grid connection are commercially available in Australia with 20 yr warranty on power production, at efficiencies of 16% to 20%, and from multiple manufacturers.

      Readily found on online. As an example - http://www.energymatters.com.au
      There’ll be other sources.

    • Northern Steve says:

      02:44pm | 22/05/11

      1. bullshit.  Find a reference
      2.  What’s your point?
      3. Almost all energy sources and industrial processes contain or use toxic materials.  The consequences and risk associated is a lot more complex than simply stating that fact.

      Again, what point are you trying to make?  That solar panels are useful in certain contexts and for certain purposes?  Of course they are.  Are they useful everywhere?  No.

    • bikinis on top says:

      12:36pm | 21/05/11

      The Sun disappeared in 1977.The Telegraph has replaced the Mirror since then.

    • A most excellent conservative plan. says:

      05:38pm | 21/05/11

      Matter of fact, the conservatives have endorsed the mirror green scheme.
      They will pay farmers who farm in otherwise marginal parts of the country to plant mirrors in their drought stricken fields and capture the sun’s rays during the day.
      This stored energy can then be used at night when the sun no longer strikes the mirror surface.
      This dovetails rather nicely into their other sustainable energy plan ...

    • bikinis on top says:

      12:39pm | 21/05/11

      In Britain and In Canada, The Liberals support The Environment and Strategies for Climatic Change.
      The Liberal Party in Australia believes in environmental destruction, environmental pollution and the economy only.They are Stone Age!

    • Catching up says:

      01:32pm | 21/05/11

      And they continue with this support in spite of the fact their economy is no where as strong as ours.  They do it becasue they believe it is good for the economy now and in the future..

    • Greg says:

      05:03pm | 21/05/11

      The Liberals in Canada is a left wing party who claim to be progressive. The Liberal Party in Australia is a conservative party. Do try to understand the differences before you post rubbish.

    • Bruce says:

      12:02pm | 22/05/11

      Greg agree: In the USA, liberals are something to be compared to our left wing labor party members.

    • bikinis on top says:

      12:43pm | 21/05/11

      All over the World,  Liberal Parties believe in the environment.
      Only the Stone Age Liberals of Australia do not believe in the environment.
      Australian Liberals are centuries out of touch with voters.

    • Adam Diver says:

      03:07pm | 21/05/11

      Not according to the polls, please do not make the mistake of thinking most people think like you. Use a bit of logic if possible.

      P.S stop spamming the forum, your thoughtgs are not so diverse or clever that they need individual post.

    • The Liberal Loafer says:

      04:16pm | 21/05/11

      Is Adam Diver any relation to Stuart Diver ? Or is it TIM B?
      Is the Punch Forum simply a place to Liberal Party trolls to hire new Liberal Party supporters and   to drum up voter support for the Liberal Party Of Australia?
      The Liberal Party troll support base only consists of dead shits.

    • Adam Diver says:

      05:04pm | 21/05/11

      @ Liberal Loafer, your own name disproves your “hyperbowl”. Well played sir…

    • Peter says:

      01:27pm | 21/05/11

      We see what government is doing however its stragety remains undicussed.  Every time a solar goes on the roof a little less coal is burnt.  So do all to overdevelop the solar industry then withdraw and watch it collapse. Gillards promise of over compensation to the carbon tax making electricity cheaper is brilliant for breaking solar’s back. Example $0.50 Kw, add carbon tax $0.20 Kw, deduct over compensation $0.30 Kw, coal fired electricity drops to $0.40 Kw. Cheaper electricity means more electricity sold and more coal burnt.

    • Korowai Kenny says:

      01:36pm | 21/05/11

      I’ve still got the other block next door, plenty of tall old ironbark trees and fallen dry wood, and sprouting saplings, enough to keep the chainsaw in good condition, for the combustion stove which doubles as a woodfire heater, open plan design first floor, mounted on heat insulation, with heat ducting to the HW storage tank above us, on the second floor. No need for insulation there. The ground amenities shed, houses the woodfire steam driven generator, driving the ammonia refrigerator and other appliances and gadgets.This works a treat in a two storey tree house.

    • Peter says:

      02:55pm | 21/05/11

      @Korowai Kenny.
      Take the restrictor plate out of your ammonia fridge and replace with gas turbine/generator. Nothing changes except you now get free electricity all the time your fridge is running.

    • Rossco says:

      01:55pm | 21/05/11

      The Solar PV industry is going to be dead at the end of this year, mark my words. First the various state governments have reduced and/or closed off their tariff schemes, and then the Federal Government reduces the Solar Credits in the next financial year, thereby making everybody pay $1-3,000 more for a solar PV system. It makes a solar PV system not worth the effort, having far too long a payback period.

    • persephone says:

      02:57pm | 21/05/11

      Rossco

      partly this is because of the increasing recognition that household solar is a very expensive solution.

      The vilified ‘Clash for Clunkers’ scheme, for example, would have been as efficient as the present household solar scheme - at a cost of around $300 a tonne.

      When governments confidently expect that they can get significant emissions reductions at costs of less than $30 a tonne, this is a huge price difference.

      Money has been pumped into solar over the years on the assumption that demand would drive prices down, but this hasn’t happened - solar systems are still relatively expensive.

      So ‘those in the know’ are recommending a shift away from household solar to bigger systems, such as solar farms, which are more efficient.

      Solar has been given a chance to prove itself on a household level and has failed.

      There are simply better ways out there of solving the problem, and better ideas which need the money for development.

    • Adam Diver says:

      05:07pm | 21/05/11

      @ Perse, I agree with you for once. The only difference is I could of told you the result of these schemes before we wasted billions on them. In terms of economies of scale for renewables, heres a secret, they still won’t work but we will probably waste billions anyway.

    • The Liberal Loafer says:

      04:34pm | 21/05/11

      Why does the Liberal National Party hire hundreds of these pathetic Liberal Party Trolls to daily fill up the Punch Forum and similar forums with pathetic Liberal Party propaganda in an attempt to hire new Liberal National voters and to preach to all worthless pathetic Liberal Party Trolls?

    • Greg says:

      05:06pm | 21/05/11

      Funny, it seems to me that there is a core of Labor trolls posting, I guess it is all due to our own confirmation biases?

    • Steve says:

      05:11pm | 21/05/11

      Because Loafer it is fun to yank your chain and set you off on a rant. Tactically it is good because sane people don’t want to be seen associating themselves with the likes of you so they drift away from the ALP to the more rational Liberal party. Keep up the good work!

    • Col. of Blackburn says:

      06:02pm | 21/05/11

      Why should all the rest of us Taxpayers subsidize a few who have Solar PV installed. I believe that people who have them should get the same feed in tariff for excess electricity generated as they pay for the feed out tariff for the electricity they have to purchase off the grid. Any electricity that their own panels generate is saving them money instead of having to pay for electricity that they would have had to purchase for their use!
      Maybe a SMALL rebate towards purchase, say a max of $500, remembering that we ALL have to pay for that through our taxes!

    • Joel B1 says:

      08:59am | 22/05/11

      Greenies are Greedy.

      First, as mentioned those rich people who get a subsidised PV system do so at the expense of poorer people who can’t afford it even with massive rebates.

      Second, those smug gits in their Prius’ still do as much damage to the road infrastructure as cars that use more petrol/gas but they let other poorer people again pay the government taxes on petrol that keep the roads in shape. The USA is looking at a hybrid/electric car tax/fee to get back lost revenue from falling gas sales.

      Green=Greed

    • Sony B Goode says:

      09:02am | 22/05/11

      Solar has just become state labor’s prink batt scheme

      http://www.news.com.au/national/solar-panel-installations-faulty-audit/story-e6frfkvr-1226060350765

      “THE NSW government has ordered a state-wide safety audit of solar panels after nearly all rooftop installations inspected were found to be faulty.

      There is something seriously wrong headed and stupid about labor governments, they let their consultants, who are paid squillions, lead them around by nose rings because they don’t understand the first thing about business. Everything labor has touched turns to poo and the taxpayer is left with the clean-up bill.

      GFC was the king of all labor stuff ups. 100 billion wasted on projects with no economic return, 100 billion wasted chasing stupid reality divorced ideology, all at taxpayer’s expense. Now the federal government needs to pull an extra 100 billion dollars from taxpayers to pay back the spending spree, for which there is absolutely no evidence that it actually did anything beyond create a few short term jobs. Given the collapse in government revenues it seems that the stimulus spending has failed to reverse the inevitable tide of credit contraction, adding another 150 billion to the black hole labor has dug for Australia.

      The result: a quarter trillion of debt, that we will have to pick up the tab for, with nothing to show for it. The best Swan could say about it was that it was not as bad as some other countries.

      Clap, clap, clap.

    • Scranbag says:

      11:04am | 22/05/11

      “The best Swan could say about it was that it was not as bad as some other countries”.  Poor attempt at distortion there.  He hasn’t said that.

      Serious commentators overseas (IMF, World Bank, OECD) and in Australia (Reserve Bank, Treasury, Gittins, Hartcher, others) have all noted the speed, success, and responsible level and wind-back of the Australian Labor federal response to a global financial melt-down that brought economies around the world to a standstill (NZ, US, UK, Ireland, Spain, Greece etc etc).

      The result is that we have: 
      A million or more homes properly insulated, with a fire risk *less* than before the batts program.
      20 or 30 thousand schools with better, new,  *permanent* facilities for students.

      All that achieved desite a small proportion of Dodgy Bruvvers in the private sector, trying to dip their hands into our pockets against every effort to curtail such nonsense (good enough to ensure a number of prosecutions subsequently).

      Not only that. After a two year holiday of historic lows from which anyone could have made savings, we have domestic interest rates back at just into the mildest of braking levels, just above normal, with an inflation rate just at or just above the desired range. 

      All because we have in fact a responsible level of Gov’t debt, that is widely recognised for what it is, a remarkable success. That and a deficit which (despite unforseable natural disasters making unforseen dents in revenue), remains at a manageable level.

      With careful budgeting that rests on the lowest rate of growth in Gov’t outlays seen for 30 years without putting the economy into the deep freeze, plus careful and wholly affordable tax adjustments, the budget looks to be back in surplus as expected in 2012-13.

      Not only that. We have record and growing employment, sustained low unemployment, and strong resources growth. We have had - before this last Budget - three budgets in a row with wide ranging tax cuts. 

      And meanwhile, we *still* have enough room in interest rates, gov’t debt, and economic growth, to cushion any other major wobble from overseas.

      “The best Swan could say about it was that it was not as bad as some other countries”? Nonsense. 

      Swan has in fact repeatedly remarked, as have other responsible ministers, quite rightly, that our fiscal, economic and budgetary positions are the envy of the developed world.

    • Joel B1 says:

      12:05pm | 22/05/11

      “The result is that we have:
      A million or more homes properly insulated, with a fire risk *less* than before the batts program.
      20 or 30 thousand schools with better, new,  *permanent* facilities for students.”

      Home insulation is not the bloody governments job. Rising prices would have had the same effect except without the rorts, rip-offs and scams. The first thing we did when we bought our house was to insulate it ourselves.

      As for those off-the-shelf wastes of space, it’s not like school kids didn’t have enough room, what they didn’t have was enough teachers and equipment.  BER was nothing less than a scam to keep the building bubble growing.

      “careful budgeting”! can I get some of those pills too? ALP is waste city.
      Oh, I guess you mean the poor bloody Liberals who’ll have to claw us back into reasonable fiscal condition.

    • Scranbag says:

      01:48pm | 22/05/11

      “not the bloody governments job”: hence the fact that it was carried out -
      for private households
      at their own request
      by private contractors (some number of whom were not up to scratch). 

      Programs funded by the government for perfectly good economic reasons in a crisis, with economic benefits for *all* Australians that we already see in the short/medium term. In the longer term, continuing to accrue via better energy use.

      We are, as already noted, already in “reasonable fiscal condition”

      Irrelevant personal insults merely show the weakness of JB1s case and credibility.

    • Sony B Goode says:

      01:59pm | 22/05/11

      What do you mean “nonsense”.  I personally asked him the question he specifically said that we were not as bad as others. The only people who envy our position are socialist squanderers who are almost universally heading into default.

      You have not a single shred of evidence to back up your claims that the government spendathon was beneficial.

      Take for example Chile, which did not lurch into uncontrolled Keynesian spending and is in far better position than we are.

      http://dailycapitalist.com/2011/05/18/conventional-economics-cannot-explain-chiles-success/

      Why are government revenues collapsing if its spendathon worked? Because it did nothing but create a few short term jobs and the only long term outcome being the promise of burdensome taxation to pay down the debt.

    • Scranbag says:

      02:57pm | 22/05/11

      All the points I’ve made are, as another Punch poster used to say, a matter of public record. Easily found by very little careful work on the relevant websites.

      No shred of evidence? Simply incorrect.  There is no disputing the current robust levels of employment, low unemployment, modest interest rates, modest inflation, and the comparative levels of modest debt and deficit in relation to the economy as a whole. None.

      Even if we were to accept SBGs unverified - unverifiable -  personal assertion as an accurate reflection: “Not as bad as elsewhere”? In spades!  The Treasurers repeated remarks on the public record - and in Parliament -  are as I’ve stated.

    • Northern Steve says:

      03:01pm | 22/05/11

      As a teacher, the building we received form the BER was nice.  For the money though, if we had been asked, we would have done something very different and much more effective for education.  Education was never the prime focus, that was just the sweetener that made such a huge spend publicly acceptable.
      And despite the money spent, not one cent went to a local builder.  It all went to the big boys form out of town as the locals (some of them good friends of mine) didn’t have the capacity to deal with the regulations and paperwork required for the projects, although they certainly have built bigger projects before.  Local builders would also have taken more care; we’re still waiting for btis to be finished or fixed months after handover.
      The program was poorly designed, and didn’t meet one of its main criterion which was to stimulate the building industry across the country in all towns - again, most of the work went to the big companies in teh cities.

    • Scranbag says:

      03:18pm | 22/05/11

      “burdensome taxation to pay down the debt”

      After wide ranging personal income tax cuts in each of the preceding three budgets, we are faced in this budget with a small temporary flood levy that will cost most people very little.

      “around 60% of taxpayers contribute less than $1 a week. If you are earning $80,000, you’ll contribute $2.88 per week”
      Source: Treasury website

      In order to save increases on future outlays, the indexation of family benefits will - from 2012 -  affect some individuals and families on *taxable* income in excess of $150,000 per year. The estimated impact? About *$18 per child per year* less in the level of indexed benefit at those taxable incomes and above.

      Other parts of the family benefit system will continue to increase, while income levesl for entitlement will shift to better spread the entitlement overall. Complex, but well discussed here:
      http://inside.org.au/family-assistance-what-the-changes-really-mean/

      “burdensome taxation to pay down the debt”? Simply not so.

    • Northern Steve says:

      03:49pm | 22/05/11

      Scranbag,
      Those cuts and levies haven’t ,even begun to pay down the debt.  They’re a small effort to reign in the annual budget defecit, which they’ve managed this year to whittle down to, what, $50B?  Hardly tackling the debt they’ve accumulated.
      The amount raised by the flood levy will be so small, the admin costs involved for a once off levy is going to reduce the actual cash available. 
      The child benefits pause in indexing is a good idea, but it’s only just scratching at the surface of the reforms really needed here.
      They’ve wasted a chance to make some actual tough decisions, instead of just talking about it.  it won’t get any easier as the next election gets closer, and that suprlus is just going to evaporate.  WA has taken half of it already, just 2 weeks after the budget was handed down.

    • Scranbag says:

      04:51pm | 22/05/11

      “Poorly designed program”.  No one claims the building program was flawless.

      It’s too easy to forget the real urgency of the time, the very real possibility of total financial freeze leading to sustained mass unemployment at levels not seen for 90 years. Happened elsewhere. 

      The primary aim was to use funds quickly and usefully on infrastructure, maintaining cash flows, employment, consumption, and economic momentum.

      What would the cost of getting out of a 30 % unemployment rate (about 3 million people unemployed!) have been? Contemplate the likely cost of *that*.

      To paint an entire massive national program as a failure just for want of a local or personal effect is pointless and wrong. It was an emergency national measure, as was the batts program.  Whatever their known and acknowleged flaws, both programs have done far more good than harm in place, and in the bigger picture of the economy clearly achieved their aims, and will continue to be a benefit in the future.

      We are all benefitting from the result of those programs today. Growing employment, low unemployment, low inflation, very modest interest rate rises, three years of tax cuts, etc etc etc.

      I’ve had a fair go on this, having corrected with good and sourced or readily checkable material, a number of errors and misinformation. 

      As some issues are now being raised repeatedly, I’m disinclined to keep repeating myself for the lazy while boring the socks of those across the issues.

      Time for me to enjoy my weekend.

    • Northern Steve says:

      07:53pm | 22/05/11

      ” “Poorly designed program”.  No one claims the building program was flawless. “

      Scranbag, the government tried to claim it was pretty much flawless for a loooonnnnggggg time.

    • Northern Steve says:

      08:02pm | 22/05/11

      The situation in Australia was remarkably different to most other developed countries.  We had good regulation in our banking sector which saw little sub-prime lending, which was one of the key catalysts to the recessions in the US and the UK.  We also had a very well regulated (ie flexible) labour market.  This saw employees, in negotiation with the employers, taking reduced hours each week rather than losing workers.  So when the economy picked up, it was very easy to re-employ people at their old rate, rather than having find staff again.  Cut down on churn, and spread the hurt so that each person tightened their belts a little, rather than selecting sacrificial lambs at each workplace.  Bosses too often took paycuts or took on the slack to ease the pain on their employees.
      A lot of these sorts of strategies would not have been possible pre-workchoices, and probably wouldn’t be possible now with Fair Work.  Certainly they weren’t options in more highly regulated countries.
      Because of these sort of reforms from the past 20 years (ALP & Liberal), and because of our resources sales to Asia, we didn’t need as much stimulus as was given.  In fact, the economy was starting to pick back up before the stimulus kicked in.
      Apart form anything else, the stimulus didn’t work in Japan, US, UK Europe etc, so how can you claim that it worked here?
      We didn’t need it on the scale it was given, and most of it was too late to be of much benefit anyway.  We can see the results now with rising inflation and interest rates.  Well done Swanny.

    • Anubis says:

      04:28pm | 23/05/11

      Scranbag = Persephone = Labor Troll

      If not then they are writing from the same Labor handbook of directives

    • Sony B Goode says:

      05:00pm | 22/05/11

      Scranbag your answers are disingenuous and you ignore difficult questions and resort to parroting party line like a seasoned politician

      One cannot look up the long term benefit of the government’s spendathon because there is no evidence of it producing any long term benefit whatsoever.  A few short term jobs from an army of govt paid people employed to create a few short term measures.

      “The robust level of employment” is only in the mining industry, the rest of the economy is sliding backwards as evidenced by collapsing government revenue, collapsing small businesses and rising unemployment. All these are facts.

      The government’s response has been to release the hounds and bring that revenue back home through aggressive tax collection. Why is the ATO issuing mass fines to late businesses when it has never done so?

      “comparative levels of modest debt” compared to whom does it make it modest? The US? UK? Iceland? Greece? Spain? Portugal? What about compared to Chile and other countries who did not engage in a Keynesian spendathon?

      A quarter trillion can only be described as “modest” by a deceitful and dishonest politician.

      The quarter trillion debt that labor is going to leave us can only be paid down by future taxation.

      Since you seem to be so close to policy makers, just what are labors plans to pay down the debt if it is not to raise taxes? You barely can get us to a miniscule surplus with which it will take a generation to pay down a quarter trillion of debt.

      The debt ceiling raised to a quarter trillion dollars is a quarter trillion dollars of future taxation above and beyond the current level of taxation that labor is saddling Australians.

      You seem to be infering you are not going to touch the debt and maybe just leave it to the liberals once again to clean up your mess?

    • Scranbag says:

      05:00pm | 22/05/11

      No, the WA thing is known to be an own goal. Covered widely elsewhere in the less hysterical economic reportage. Effectively neutral, in the washup. Disagree? Read more widely. Try Michael Pascoe, with whom I rarely agree.

      A wider read of eg Gittins also shows the budget in a less distorted light.

      Debt levels are far lower than Hockey and Joyce were trying to spin one and two years ago. Expected to be repaid within what, less than 10 years from now. And deficit to surplus in 2012-2013.

      Don’t have time to check yet another set of others unsourced assertions, time for me to go.

    • Adam says:

      05:31pm | 22/05/11

      Scranbag, the tax cuts we’ve had over the last three years under Labor were funded and proposed by the Howard/Costello team. Labor merely honoured them. The Swan/Gillard team has not yet proposed or funded any tax cuts. In fact, they have only done the opposite and increased tax.

    • Sony B Goode says:

      05:59pm | 22/05/11

      I specifically asked Swan the question wouldn’t it have been better to cut taxes rather create huge debt through stimulus, on the news.com.au post budget forum.
      He ignored the question and went on to rave about how the debt was not as bad as some.

      In a global economy with trillions of dollars of credit contraction manifesting, short term stimulus will not stop the inevitable re-payment of debt. At best it will artificially boost the number to make the economy look normal. This is what we have seen.

      Japan has been using Keynesian economics for 2 decades with no success after its massive credit collapse, yet treasuries around the world expect this time around things will be different, short term jobs created by government spending will miraculously turn into long term jobs.

      But! Insulated homes will never lead to new wealth creation in the private sector, nor will be bigger school halls in schools, nor removing old cars from our roads, nor the other countless schemes devised to reduce our carbon footprint.

      Absolutely no noticeable benefit to anyone long term, and when the climate catastrophe doesn’t materialise in 50 years they will claim credit for that too even though there is no evidence it would have ever have materialised.

      It’s the same with the GFC, there is no evidence that the effects here would have been as catastrophic as in the UK, as our banks where not so heavily exposed to speculation and CDS’s. The fact the effect where never going to be as bad means the government can take the credit for fixing something that never materialised. However the real effects of GFC are now starting to be felt from many trillions of dollars of global credit contraction.

      Countries that did not go on a Keynesian spendathon are now doing fine with no burden of debt hovering above them.

      Cutting taxes would have given money to people to decide to pay down credit or spend.

      Instead the government has chosen the route of spending on behalf of everyone at everyone’s expense. The current results shows, global credit contraction is still underway with now painful consequences and we have a government that has blown its wad trying to stop it with now no options open to it to ease the pain.

    • Sony B Goode says:

      06:28pm | 22/05/11

      The sky is falling the sky is falling
      . Quick dance around like a crazy person and bang a drum very loudly for 2 days.
      2 days later. Wow it worked the sky didn’t fall down.

      Scranbag, it is pretty clear popular wisdom is wrong on GFC, and your political commentators should stick to commenting on elections since they are not actually part of the global financial system.

      A spendathon did not stop global de-leveraging and in the US they have what is euphemistically called a jobless recovery. Ie a recovery only in some numbers not in reality.  Printing presses going full bore whilst interest rates are near zero and blowing market bubbles left right and center is not a recovery.

      Like japans lost two decades, the labor government has set us for our very own lost decade.

    • Scranbag says:

      09:24am | 23/05/11

      Aus net gov’t debt is, in proportion to GDP, at levels that have been seen and dealt with on several previous occasons in Australia (source: Reserve Bank papers). Modest, in other words. No point comparing simple current $ values against past $ values without deflation adjustment- hence the proportion, a simpler measure.

      The “popular wisdom” on the GFC I would have thought to be what SBG and NS are offering up. As already noted, wider reading of sound independent even handed commentators (Gittins, Pasco, Hartcher, Reserve Bank) gives a deeper view much as I’ve summarised.

      Thus the bulk of response here to the GFC was spent on the working economy, through the $900 tax bonus, the Batts program, and the school buildings program.

      Not thrown into major financial houses on the brink of collapse as in UK and US.  Only a guarantee was needed, and that generated some revenue.

      NS & Tax cuts: made by a Labor government in current economic circumstances. One can argue the merits. Whether similar cuts had been “on offer” from a since defeated gov’t is frankly a complete irrelevance, economically.

      NS and “loooooong time”: That is not correct, as a browse through Hansard (or attention to Parliamentary broadcasts at the time) readily shows

      Any private citizen, like me, can inform themselves of the accurate data and commentary from a range of sound independent sites.

      So, on the relative strength of our economy I’ll prefer to rely on the material shown by our Reserve Bank, Bureau of Stastistics, the IMF and the OECD for accurate data. The comparative overall strength of our economy and labour force are there for all to see. 

      Finally, I reject all unfounded and totally false personal accusation and insult, categorically and without qualification. I’m not going to seek moderation of the material. No.

      Let it stand, for current readers and for future reference, so that any reasonable person can see and ponder for themselves the standard of behaviour that passes for debate from the Right.

    • Chris says:

      01:55pm | 26/05/11

      Wow. Honestly. There are some seriously misinformed people.

      The thing is, even if CO2 and global warming wasn’t an issue, which it is, there is nothing better than future proofing a civilisation such as ours against the inevitable limit of fossil fuels. Sigh.

    • Tom says:

      11:11pm | 22/06/11

      Do you publish on The Punch, Chris? Good writing. I think we should also mention the parity price point here. Only when this point is reached and that is when no rebate is needed and solar can compete directly with conventional heating or electricity. I see the industry struggling more and more for more RECs, but the prices of their systems are not dropping as fast as what the policy maker has hoped. I am against the boom and bust cycle. But the industry needs to realize that the margin has to come down the prices have to drop

 

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