The Labor rout in Victoria is an undoubted victory for the Liberals, even though there was a possibility they would yet again come in second. It was at very least a huge morale boost.

They said we'd never make it… Picture: Andrew Brownbill

Julia Gillard will end 2010 with one Labor bastion being pulled down and will start 2011 with the destruction of another —the NSW Government in March. Tony Abbott’s Liberals will have the momentum going their way. Well at least in a parallel fashion. The Victorian election was about state issues, and was not a federal test.

There was another boost for the Liberals, and that was the performance of their Victorian director, Tony Nutt, the former John Howard trooper and once the party director in NSW.

There has been speculation that national Liberal director Brian Loughnane might move on after seven years in one of the toughest jobs in Australian politics.

Since the August election he has been involved in a heated internal debate over funding priorities.

Loughnane has one of the sharpest campaign brains around and there is no suggestion a move is underway to force him out. His wife Peta Credlin is chief of staff to Abbott.

However, Nutt’s success at the weekend has seen his stocks increased within the party. He has reinforced his record as a skilled strategist who runs a tight operation.

There now is a view that should Loughnane decide to leave the director’s post, a ready and capable replacement is available in Tony Nutt. This view has gained some weight in NSW.

Nutt was a feared gate keeper in John Howard’s office and his boss could rely on his honest advice as well as loyalty.

Whoever manages the Liberal, or Labor campaigns of the future, the Victorian poll will not be held as evidence that the Greens should never get preferences.

The Vic Liberals took what they hoped would be seen as a stand on principle and refused to preference the Greens over Labor. In the Federal election the Liberals made sure GreensGreens Adam Bandt was elected in the former Labor seat of Melbourne.

The success of the anti-Green tactic in Victoria does not mean Liberals will never again back a Bandt. Nor does it mean the increasing electoral influence of the Greens has peaked.

The Liberals will look at the issue seat by seat, and with the ALP so vulnerable to candidates from the further-left party in inner city seats, such as In Sydney, don’t expect them to always resist the temptation.

Prime Minister Gillard has been hung out in an uncomfortable position because of the Green wave, and the Liberals are enjoying and exploiting her discomfort.

The Victorian election confirmed there is considerable voter concern about rising household expenses, and that national economic growth and falling unemployment have not eased those concerns.
Household bills keep going up.

So what is the Government seen to be taking as priorities? Gay marriage and euthanasia just to name two. That is a jarring set of imperatives at a time when the electorate wants assurances on fundamentals such as house mortgage rates, not homosexual marriage.

63 comments

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    • nosthow says:

      07:47am | 29/11/10

      After 11 long years of Labor government Malcolm, when any government is looking tired and worn out, all the Liberal Party could do is to maybe just win narrowly by 1 seat ! Now voters this is breathtaking. It shows a Liberal Party that really is not wanted by anyone - if they were they would have romped it in ! Of course as “Mumble” in The Australian points out it augurs well for Ms Gillard, given that “Dumpy” O’Farrell will win in NSW next year, in clearing the decks of tired worn out Labor Governments - it doesnt look good for poor old Tones who wont be able to point to any state government of the populated states who are on the nose ! How sweet it is ! If I was a young fella and keen to join a political party with a future I would steer well clear of the Liberal Party folks - they are not the party of the future of Australia !

    • Matt says:

      08:25am | 29/11/10

      Never let reality get in the way of a good narrative, eh nosthow?

    • Macca says:

      08:37am | 29/11/10

      @nosthow, on Friday you said Brumby would sweep home, with an increased majority?

      I think I can saw, without fear of prejudice, that you are the worst predictor out of the regular Punch contributors. Worse than Eric.

    • KH says:

      08:42am | 29/11/10

      That is interesting isn’t it - the problem is that they don’t seem to stand for anything - just being against the incumbent government is not a policy.  Baillieu is invisible-man - I have no idea what he stands for - I just know he doesn’t like his old school buddy Brumby.  And?  What are your policies????  Federally its even worse - I mean all the slandering and nastiness - but still no real policies.  And Abbott is seriously on the nose for a lot of voters - me included.  I can’t stand him - I just couldn’t make myself vote for them because of him, and I know plenty of others who felt the same.  The fact that they just couldn’t get a clear win in Victoria against an incumbent that has become arrogant and incompetent is really an indictment on the state of the Liberals, and their poor choices for leadership.

    • Big Boi says:

      08:50am | 29/11/10

      Too funny nosthow! Nobody wants the Libs? That is why Victoria lost the State election and that is why Miz Gillard didn’t get a majority victory in the Federal election. I hope more people don’t want the Libs in future because this ‘rejection’ of the Libs seems to be working against the ALP.

    • Geraldine says:

      08:54am | 29/11/10

      You sound like a spoilt brat nosthow!! Get over it the Liberals have got in by one or two seats but that is one or two seats more than labour . If Libs are not wanted then Labour is wasnted even less.

    • Aitch B says:

      09:07am | 29/11/10

      @KH

      Obviously you haven’t been following the election campaign too closely. Didn’t you notice all the ‘me too’, catch up and ‘I’ll raise you’ announcements by Brumby?

      Don’t let your lack of attention get in the way of a good anti-Liberal rant, will you?

    • Lucas says:

      09:07am | 29/11/10

      Using nasty adjectives about someone’s physical appearance all the time just goes to show how desperate and shallow you are nosthow. Do you have a photo of your body and face for us to pick you about? Please give us a link to it if you do.

    • Andrew says:

      09:33am | 29/11/10

      nosthow may be somewhat deluded but I do think he raises a point that the Liberal party needs to consider. So far this year we have seen quite a few elections where voters have shown their dissatisfaction with long term state Labor governments and with the bizarre last 12 months of the federal Labor government. Despite the swings Labor has retained government in Tasmania, South Australia and at the Federal level. An honest analysis would say that voters clearly are turning away from Labor, but they are not overwhelmingly embracing the Liberal party either. The Liberals are gaining votes simply for not being Labor rather than getting votes because people are embracing their policies.

    • Wayne Fehlhaber says:

      09:38am | 29/11/10

      Nosthow :  Considering the Libs started from way back in the race they did really well in achieving a 6.7% swing . 
      Your brave face justification of the dumping of Labor in Victoria is hilarious Nosthow.

      KH :  Labor are in big trouble everywhere and you know it.  The high costs of Labor in government are flowing through the system at a faster rate and inflation coupled with unions pushing for wage increases to compensate will feed the spiralling monster.

    • KH says:

      09:46am | 29/11/10

      Aitch B and Wayne - well I voted for the Liberals on Saturday, so what is your point again?

    • Gregg says:

      09:48am | 29/11/10

      Still lostnow you are and will be in Labor wilderness.
      Right now it’s a green jungle of Julia’s choosing and the vines are choking the life out of Labor.
      Tony’ll not have to pointing anywhere other than at the continued Labor incompetence and just as people will have decided in the states, so they will federally, no doubt helped along by the massive divisions already occurring in Labor and they have only just been re-elected.
      Don’t know that too many young fellas, nor damsels will take heed of an old croaker’s thoughts losty!

    • Gladys says:

      10:29am | 29/11/10

      I tuned in a bit late to the ABC and saw a 7% swing in a seat that’s supposed to be safe for Labor. It had gone to the Liberals.

      7% away from Labor isn’t a victory for Labor. And no number of recounts or scrambling to stay in government (in manner of Survivor with no immunity necklace) will change the rather large swing to the Liberals (in that particular seat).

    • Richard says:

      11:20am | 29/11/10

      @Andrew, that’s because ideologically, everybody wants a free lunch: they want the rich to be taxed mercilessly and the wealth redistributed directly to them, which is what Labor promises to do. But when they try to do it in reality, it doesn’t work, it damages the economy, central planning causes prices to rise.

      Look at all the costs that have been skyrocketing: electricity, water, public transport, rates, all the things that government is responsible for. Their meddling even helped blow up our real estate bubble. But look at the free market, when that is allowed to operate, look at what happens: prices come down, phones are cheaper, computers are cheaper, TVs are cheaper etc.

      So the Libs ideology is unpopular, because everyone wants to think that if the rich pay more tax then their lives will be easier, if the government runs an industry they will look after the people because they won’t be motivated by the “evil” profit motive. But unfortunately, free market capitalism just happens to be the most efficient way of organising things, and in then end delivers benefits to everyone rich and poor. But rusted on Labor-voters like nosthow don’t care; they just want the rich to suffer.

    • EM says:

      11:37am | 29/11/10

      @ Richard, that’s just utter tosh mate.  Electricity is private and the only thing that’s happened is that prices went up and service went down; which is what happens when you have the private sector running large monopolies.  Free market capitalism is not the be-all and end-all of providing services, it works for many things but blows chunks for a hell of a lot of things too.

    • CynicalGoatWA says:

      12:00pm | 29/11/10

      So the Vic Libs win by “one seat’ (note to self : How the hell do you win by ONE seat in an election with no independents and an even number of seats???), and it’s a party “thats not really wanted by anyone” .......yet “Ms Gillard” leads a party with a smaller margin than Baillieu but that’s obviously different because…....well she’s Labor!!!
      Back to stuffing ALP how to vote envelopes nosthow. I eagerly await your next pearl of wisdom.

    • Wayne Fehlhaber says:

      12:18pm | 29/11/10

      KH :  Really you voted Liberal !  But…but ....but ...but…ummm…what was the point of ” your * post KH ?  Your reply totally contradicts your actions,  but i’m pleased you used common sense.

    • KH says:

      12:38pm | 29/11/10

      Wayne: 1. I’m not blind; and 2. I don’t know enough to like the guy, but I don’t anything to dislike him either….....surely no one could be worse than what was there?!!!  I would have voted Liberal federally too, if it wasn’t for Abbott.  I just can’t stand the guy….......

    • Wayne Fehlhaber says:

      01:56pm | 29/11/10

      KH :  Where Tony Abbott is concerned , try to put aside your personal dislike . There tends to be far to much emphasis on party leaders these days . It’s not about the leaders , its about policies and where those policies are taking Australia.
      Presidential style elections are very misleading and can result in a party in government with policies which simply do not suit the times or economic settings.
      Your observation that nobody could be worse than the govt. in Victoria equally applies to the federal sphere currently.  Get over the Abbott phobia and you will see the light.

    • Spiros says:

      03:28am | 03/12/10

      The Victorian government, supposedly the best ALP government in Australia, couldn’t get to 36.5% of the primary vote. Pathetic!

      The Greens just had their second consecutive mediocre Victorian state election result. But apparently it’s the Coalition, with over 45% of the primary vote, who’s going backward. Ha!

      Face it, the ALP is dead. How else do you explain the pathetic 36.5% of the primary vote your backward, hopeless, dead-in-the-water party got?

      The ALP’s base is essentially ageing bogans and other no-hopers, you can’t build a base on that.

    • Barry says:

      08:08am | 29/11/10

      Just goes to prove you don’t need to “do whatever it takes” by jumping into bed with the greens just to win Government. Good to see the Libs stick to their guns even at the risk of not winning, to make sure VIC has a solid Government. Unlike the desperate Gillard and Federal Labor.

    • mickijo says:

      02:33pm | 29/11/10

      Libs are not a glamour lot but there is a bit of reality behind them. ALP is all spin,flip flop, spin, flip flop. There is nothing there ,it is all smoke/mirrors. We need policies on immigration,economy not homosexual wishes. Too many lawyers,union leaders,Greens who cannot see what ordinary people see. Labor are not ‘Labour” anymore, they are becoming a joke. An expensive joke.

    • acotrel says:

      06:24am | 30/11/10

      ‘Wayne Fehlhaber says:01:56pm | 29/11/10

      KH :  Where Tony Abbott is concerned , try to put aside your personal dislike .’

      If the Lib’s win means Abbott is a step closer to gaining power, I feel sick!
      Conservative voters should recognise their obligation to use their votes responsibly.  Getting someone like Abbott to lead the country would be a travesty!

    • Jim says:

      07:47am | 30/11/10

      “Getting someone like Abbott to lead the country would be a travesty!”...as opposed to the honest, capable and transparent leader we have now, yeah?

    • Mark Young says:

      08:40am | 29/11/10

      Wow! That is so clever how you fun of Barry O’Farrell’s name and weight. Awesome! Keep it up!!

    • Bitten says:

      09:29am | 29/11/10

      People make fun of Julia Gillard’s hair and child-free status - while it is doubtless infantile, sauce for the goose, sauce for the gander.

    • Mark Young says:

      03:54pm | 29/11/10

      Hi Bitten

      I agree, people who poke fun of O’Farrell’s waist line are just as lacking in intelligence and common decency as those who make comments about the Prime Minister’s Hair, lifestyle, bowling ability, tracksuits, drinking habits, etc.

      It just weakens the point you are trying to make when you go all Primary School Playground on their ass.

    • Andrew says:

      09:02am | 29/11/10

      Hit the show, light the lights, this is it, the night of nights and oh what heights we’ll hit, on with the show this is it.

      I think that used to be the theme song to “Looney Tunes”.

      Now we can replace it with whatever @ nosthow has to say.

      You can’t polish a turd.

    • Lauren says:

      09:32am | 29/11/10

      The Liberals didn’t exactly win entirely on their own. So they got, what, 2 seats more than the ALP, all this shows is that most Victorians are tired of the ALP and their fumbles. They’re just the lesser of two evils, y’know…

      I live in a very ALP focused area, Justin Madden’s electorate and Brumby’s suburb, so I may be biased in my thinking.

    • davis says:

      11:01am | 29/11/10

      I agree Lauren.

      Victoria didn’t ‘want’ Liberal. They just didn’t want Labour.

      Liberals could have done better I think. I guess we’ll see whether they’re any good or not.

      Bailleu has all the political charm of a dead wombat but maybe he and his party will be good at governing. however, to say we know what to expect is a dirty fib.

      It’s pretty obvious we need more bloody variety though.

      Also, Libs preferences put a few Labour bums on seats as well!

    • Richard says:

      11:28am | 29/11/10

      But why don’t Victorians want the Libs? Peter Costello was from Victoria, and I guarantee that if we didn’t have him, if we had Wayne Swan as Federal Treasurer for the last 14 years, I can guarantee that we would be in the same boat as Ireland, drowning in toxic debt, but without the Germans to give us a bail-out.

      People have been brain-washed into thinking that it doesn’t matter who they vote for because both sides are corrupt and incompetent. Its a Labor myth used to paint the opposition with their own shortcomings to try and blur the line between the two parties, so that they can then say “but at least we have compassion for the poor”. But results speak louder, look at results: WA vs QLD, Costello vs Swan, Surplus vs Deficit,

      Now that the Libs are in power again, I think that myth will be exposed, and Liberal government, once it succeeds, will be entrenched for a very long time.

    • acotrel says:

      06:30am | 30/11/10

      When the electorate gets tired of Labor, they aren’t too particular whom they vote for.  Even a moron like Jeff Kennett can get himself elected!

    • johnny woofl says:

      09:34am | 29/11/10

      To win on their own has shown the liberals in a true light. Now with the open government it will be ever so much better. As the voters for Kevin Rudd have found out, an old government does not mean a worthless government, many wish John Howard’s team was still running the country.Now it is up to the Vic Liberals tocontinue John Howards example and be a good govrerment.

    • Shane From Melbourne says:

      09:55am | 29/11/10

      John Howard was crap- no real reforms, fuelling insane property prices with the First Home Buyers Grant and the creation of the middle class welfare state. Just because Brumby and Gillard are incompetent and inept doesn’t mean that Howard was the standard of good government- if it is, then the bar is set way too low…...

    • Andrew says:

      11:30am | 29/11/10

      Shane, John Howard “no real reforms”. Um, are you sure? Ever heard of a little thin called the GST? Or the waterfront dispute? I could probably name 100+ but I don’t think you would be swayed. Mayber you could tell me what is the standard for good government?

    • Dash says:

      12:11pm | 29/11/10

      Shane, ever heard of the Financial Services Reform Act? That reform did more to protect us from the GFC than $900 handouts to dead people! You should also remember that $93billion worth of ALP debt was paid off by Howard and our AAA rating was restored. When was the last ALP surplus budget?

      Yes Gillard is incompetent as is Swan and Garrett. The two good ALP ministers resigned in disgust over the stabbing of Rudd.

    • Spiros says:

      03:31am | 03/12/10

      No real reforms. Ha. How about Keating’s hopelessly botched deregulation of the banking sector? Capital gains tax? Endless deficits? Clunky imputation scheme? His meddling in monetary policy (he used to brag about it, too)? The guy who ran against Fightback?

      Yeah, that guy!

    • Gladys says:

      10:30am | 29/11/10

      I love Tony Nutt. He scares the hell out of me but Iove him.

    • EM says:

      10:56am | 29/11/10

      I think this is a case of the people being sick of arrogance and the move towards a closed and corrupt government; Vic didn’t vote in the Libs, they voted out Labor.  And I’m hoping it’s a move for the better in Aus that we’re finally throwing out these sorts of governments.  We started with Howard, and from then on it seems all elections have been up in the air.  Brumby had to go, and if the last federal election is anything to go by, it looks like we’re not afraid to have a go at throwing out a one term government either.  Fingers crossed if the new Lib government fails to live up to our expectations we’ll throw them out in 4 years too.  Maybe then we’ll start to get some quality politicians again, instead of the pond-scum we’ve got on all sides at the moment.

    • Marc says:

      11:35am | 29/11/10

      Your comment:When are all these tossers[ liberal & labor] going to work out that it’s not about beating each other.It’s actually about serving all Australians to create a better Australia for all of us.

    • Colin J Ely says:

      11:59am | 29/11/10

      Mal
      You Journalists publish a lot of twaddle. “The election was fought solely on State issues” what a lot of crap. if you are fed up with the Federal system and you can’t change it at the ballot box do you really think that people will vote for them at the State level?
      Also I believe the weather had a part to play, rained solidly for 24 hours before election day, I am sure everyone was remembering that famous ALP Government quote “you can’t have a dam, dam’s don’t make water” Meanwhile we are expected to pay through the nose for the building and operating of a desalination plant, when all that had to be done was to remember back to Primary School and those immortal lines of Dorothea MacKellar

      I love a sunburnt contry
      A land of sweeping plains
      Of ragged mountain ranges
      Of droughts and flooding rains

    • ana says:

      12:11pm | 29/11/10

      Tony Abbot’s Liberals did not win the Victorian election. Ted Bailieau’s liberals won the Victorian election. Ted is a progressive small “l” liberal. Tony is a backward looking big “C” conservative. Victoria showed how we felt about Tony Abbot in August.

    • Ryan says:

      03:22pm | 29/11/10

      @ana: whatever you say, sounds to me like you are having a little cry about it.

    • Spiros says:

      03:33am | 03/12/10

      You go console yourself with that hackneyed conventional wisdom.

    • craig says:

      12:46pm | 29/11/10

      at the end of the day a 6 to 7 % swing in any modern election is a BIG swing and would remove most governments in Australia from office, I would hate to be any party in Office facing an election in the next 2 or 3 years. Modern policitos has been about moving to the center and being simalar to the others, I suspect electors are seeing through this.

    • Richard says:

      02:09pm | 29/11/10

      Isn’t this an interesting phenomenon. Up until about 2007, incumbency was a huge advantage. But now, all around the world, it seems like incumbency is a poisoned chalice. Voters in every major election have turned on their ruling governments as they seek “change”. Voters are discontent, restless and angry. I think they can sense that something big is brewing in world affairs, that an epic crisis is in its early stages of unfolding right before our eyes, and that before this crisis is over, the world will be turned upside down.

    • davis says:

      03:45pm | 29/11/10

      Richard:

      I’ve thought about this a bit and it seems to run parallel with our general attitudes in a lot of areas. We have shorter attention spans, are less loyal, more demanding and more self-interested.

      Therefore, we:
      - tend to judge complex issues on superficial journalistic accounts
      - swing more
      - vote less on ideological issues and more on things we want
      - are much more likely to punish incumbents than compare challengers

      Not sure what you’re doomsday hints are about

    • Against the Man says:

      01:08pm | 29/11/10

      ALP losers everywhere HAHA!

    • Carl Palmer says:

      01:13pm | 29/11/10

      Not sure if I agree with a lot of this…
      “Prime Minister Gillard has been hung out in an uncomfortable position..” you mean hung out by her own decisions. You reap what you sow.

      “The Vic Liberals took what they hoped would be seen as a stand on principle..” Hoped? I’m not that close to the Vic Liberal party but it would seem to me that it would have been a very calculated position. Just observing the behavior in Canberra would have provided the basis for further polling on the subject. It is quite clear as you have observed - Gay marriage and euthanasia, that the current arrangements in the federal sphere are a basket case. The ALP maybe in government but the leftie Greens and in power.

      Good to see common sense percolating to the top and the leftie Greens dumped to the bottom. I hope the trend continues. You watch, once Bob Brown leaves parliament, the Greens will become a first class basket case and will implode within days.

    • Shaun Newman says:

      01:46pm | 29/11/10

      I think Victorian voters will be amazed at how little changes.

    • ibast says:

      01:49pm | 29/11/10

      It’s probably the best result for Victoria.  Not because they are getting rid of the evil Labor party (as the Conservative faithful would have us believe) but because had they have stayed on, they would likely have become a lame duck government like the current NSW government.  A near hung parliament will keep both parties on their toes.

    • Razor says:

      01:51pm | 29/11/10

      Don’t see how Ted will have time to be Premier.  He’s going to up all nights with the pick-axe handle keeping the suitors away from his stunning daughter.

    • nosthow says:

      03:54pm | 29/11/10

      Looks like we will have to all wait another day for that “magic”. Still a lot of counting to do to tally up the Libs “landslide” win. Big Teddy has already told his first BIG porky telling the young and gullible western Melburnians “he will lower their cost of living” ! Ohhh puulllleeaasseeeeeeeeeee Teddy! Bit like Johhny Howard with his little slogan on his lectern “Keeping Interest Rates Low” - and of course shortly after he was elected UP they went ! If I were living in western Melbourne, with Family and kids, paying off a house I would be saving as hard as I could as let me tell you from experience folks when a Lib tells you he will save you money - RUN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • Ben81 says:

      05:29pm | 29/11/10

      Wow you’re like the king of speaking too soon and having things blow up in your face around here aren’t you!

    • nosthow says:

      07:42pm | 29/11/10

      Well bless my soul the magic has started in Victoria - Brumby has now conceded. Big boned Teddy has the levers of power. “Ohhh that feels good” he says - “now anyone know what we do now ?”  hahahaha

    • Chris says:

      04:00pm | 29/11/10

      Correct me if I am wrong - but has there been an election since the 2007 “Ruddslide” where Labor hasn’t had a swing against it? WA, NT, SA, Tas, Qld and ACT - Labor is hemorrhaging seats nationwide.

      Labor is a dying force in Australian politics. It is losing its lunatic fringe to the Greens while losing middle Australia to the Liberals. The only way back is to accept the loss to the Greens (knowing that the Greens will support Labor anyway) and fight the Liberals on the middle ground.

    • Jane Wallace says:

      05:09pm | 29/11/10

      Watch Your comments!
      At the next NSW State Election, New South Wales Labor will outdo the Victoria Labor at the recent November 27 2010 Victoria State election..
      After the next NSW State Election, there will no Labor MPs in the NSW Lower House.
      In Victoria, Labor still has representation in the Lower House after the State election.

    • Gladys says:

      10:50pm | 29/11/10

      If you drink and blog you’re a .....

    • jane wallace says:

      05:15pm | 29/11/10

      Every Woman knows that careful examination of topless swimsuit photos of swimsuit models Tony Abbott , Peter Debnam, and Ted Bailleau does not reveal any magic wands.
      The Mass Media is the Coalition’s secret weapon against the unfortunate defenceless ALP

    • Jane Wallace says:

      05:26pm | 29/11/10

      John Brumby says Labor has 42 Seats in Victoria Lower House.
      Thats more seats than Barry O’Farrell and the Liberals have in NSW Lower House at the end of 2010

    • DD Ball says:

      08:58pm | 29/11/10

      May the truth now be spoken of what a lousy premier Brumby was? His government oversaw a collapse in policing standards, a rise in corruption, a decline in health and education and a substantial inflation in costs. Maybe he was the best ALP premier in Australia, but he was never competent.

    • Mr Bob says:

      09:13am | 30/11/10

      Vote for the ALP if you appreciate and want failure…....

 

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