Summer’s not over yet but those of us lucky enough to have secured a decent break over Christmas/New Year are mostly filing back into work this week or next.
Joy!
So too our politicians where at the national level, a snap poll theoretically can be called at any time.
So too our politicians where at the national level, a snap poll theoretically can be called at any time.
Cast your mind back through the warm fog of the holiday period and you might just recall a lot of commotion about emissions trading, about Copenhagen, and even about a bloke called Malcolm Turnbull.
As we know, Copenhagen didn’t exactly overwhelm us.
Indeed, the best the Prime Minister can really say of it is that “for the first time the states of the world agree we should keep temperature increases across the planet at two degrees centigrade’‘.
A valiant attempt but such rationale merely serves to show what a damp squib the mega-talkfest was. Turnbull too has come and gone although he may yet have his day.
Kevin Rudd is already talking less about climate change and the ethereal world of international diplomacy and more about things that affect voters: principally the economy and domestic concerns. This is no surprise because these will be the things on which the election will turn.
Nonetheless, the contrast is stark.
Last year, he emerged from the summer break having penned a turgid five thousand word essay on the failures of neo-liberal capitalism, and the historical underpinnings of his own values - including the little-known 20th century German theologian, (and people smuggler incidentally) Deitrich Bonhoeffer.
There was nothing remotely normal about this. When most of us were taking a break from the onerous realities of our work-a-day lives, the bookish PM, who routinely puts in 16 and 18 hour days, was writing an essay so dense, few people would struggle through it.
This year, he emerged from the break with a far more accessible childrens’ book. While “Jasper and Abby and the Great Australia Day Kerfuffle’‘, is ‘Ruddishly’ unclear for such a short story, it will have no trouble at all outselling his previous literary offerings. And it’s no coincidence, the audience this year is not the commentariat, but the voting mums and dads of middle Australia.
Viewed in electoral terms, it seems Mr Rudd’s famous intellectualism has given way to his everydayness as a husband, father, and all-round average bloke.
Since its launch on Monday, Mr Rudd has been on a national tour, making speeches at Australia Day receptions in all capital cities. Climate change, the dominant issue of last year, has scarcely been mentioned. Instead, the focus is squarely on the economy.
Mind you, emissions trading is not done with.
The Government has already committed to re-introducing legislation - this time with the amendments insisted on and endorsed by the Liberals in December before they reneged and rolled Malcolm Turnbull for his troubles. In the wake of that coup however, and the blow to momentum from Copenhagen, the Opposition is now even less likely to play ball meaning another rejection of the scheme is assured.
The political strategy behind the PM’s headland speeches is obvious. All governments like to come out of the summer lay-off on the front foot especially in an election year. John Howard always did.
In 2007, he came out of the blocks strongly with his Australia Day $10 billion plan for the Murray-Darling Basin.
Three years on, circumstances have changed (except lamentably in the Basin) but the objective remains the same: control the agenda, dictate the terms, use all the advantages of incumbency.
Clearly, there are some big pieces in the jigsaw puzzle of politics that are yet to fall into place but the Government controls the timing of most of them.
First, there’s the third 5 yearly Intergenerational Report. It is expected to be released next week and will inform policy in the longer-term. Already Kevin Rudd is citing key findings about the ageing population set to hit 36 million by 2050, and the public finance conundrum of a shrinking workforce - read taxpayers - compared to the number of people over 65 and therefore consuming more than they produce.
The Henry Taxation Review is also due out in the first part of this year. It will present some reform opportunities but also some challenges.
The test for the Government is how it will marry much needed reform - which means creating losers - and the temptation to chase votes. In that vein, the May Budget is another big set piece with significant implications.
This will be the first election in quite some time where the government of the day has no warchest of accumulated surpluses and will instead make promises using borrowed money.
Little wonder then that Kevin Rudd has begun the new year with a strong domestic focus.
Expect to see less of the “Kevin 747’’ persona this year and lot more of the family-man turned prime minister portrayed in the Great Australia Day Kerfuffle.
Of course the last and single most important piece in the jigsaw puzzle is Tony Abbott.
How the rookie Opposition Leader goes will largely be beyond the PM’s power to control.
Yet it may have a serious impact on everything from policy to election timing itself. So far the signs for Mr Abbott are encouraging suggesting he is reinvigorating the Liberal base. But his challenge is to make inroads into the middle ground - to actually take votes from Kevin Rudd.
There’s no sign of that yet but it’s early days and Kevin Rudd will do well not to underestimate his plain speaking adversary.
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