The groundwork for Julia Gillard’s speech today began four days ago when she started talking about fear (sorry, concern) that was understandable in the electorate (sorry, among people) about boats “looming on the horizon”.

Labor MPs too had legitimate concerns when they saw an election looming and had no convincing way of addressing voters’ worries about the boats.
The substance of Gillard’s announcements today was aimed at dealing with that. What we got was a promise that Sri Lankan asylum seekers will probably all be returned home, and an idea - let’s call it the Dili Proposal for now - to create a “regional processing centre” for people arriving by boat.
It’s only a proposal because at this point, it’s merely an idea. It has been met, as Gillard said, with open minds by East Timor and New Zealand.
But there are no commitments, no locations, and the Prime Minister mentioned no budget.
Gillard insisted it wasn’t a return to the Pacific Solution, but there’s no getting around that it looks like it - processing of asylum claims offshore, in a smaller neighbour, probably in return for aid.
It’s not exactly the Pacific Solution: this time everyone on a little boat in the entire region gets to go to the same giant processing centre.
East Timor is perhaps a straightforward choice for a new detention centre for processing asylum seekers, but Australia has a strategic interest in strengthening its ties there too.
Its Prime Minister, Xanana Gusmao, has been saying some odd things about Australia lately.
As Paul Toohey reported on The Punch last month, Gusmao had claimed Australian interference in East Timor’s sovereign affairs. In a speech he also said Australia had cost the lives of 60,000 East Timorese by coming to Timor to “wage war” against the Japanese in World War II.
Gusmao is furious about a decision by Woodside Petroleum to build a floating gas platform in the Timor Sea, rather than pipe it ashore to East Timor, and has vented at Australian authorities in response.
There is also the niggling matter that China recently established a tiny military interest in East Timor, by launching two navy patrol boats there in what was reported as “a slap in the face for Australian diplomacy”.
Early in her speech Julia Gillard agreed to disagree with Julian Burnside, the Melbourne-based QC and human rights activist who has led the argument in recent days that boat arrivals are insignificant set against the total number of migrants arriving in Australia each year. She fully endorsed his point that it would take 20 years to fill the “great MCG” with boat people on current rates of arrival, before roasting him for labelling people with concerns about unauthorised arrivals as “rednecks”.
It’s a classic leadership triangulation move - I fully agree with you and you’re wrong. It highlights the political high-wire act Gillard is now engaged in. She must get the humanitarians embodied by Burnside off her back by showing enough compassion and understanding of Australia’s international obligations, while taking action enough to show she is serious about addressing voter concerns about boat arrivals to stop people running to the Coalition who today promised to “turn the boats back”.
Enter East Timor, which is a signatory to the UN’s 1951 Convention on the Status of Refugees. Nauru, the island nation John Howard turned to for this, wasn’t.
One last point. Given Gillard’s furious agreement that yes, the numbers of boat arrivals are tiny, the Prime Minister still cast this as being about “sustainability”. Here’s the key part:
In many faster growing parts of Australia – like western Sydney, south-east Queensland and the growth corridors of Wyndham and Melton, in my own electorate in Melbourne’s western suburbs - people would laugh if you told them population growth was intended to improve living standards.
People in these communities are on the front line of our population increase and they know that bigger isn’t necessarily better.
At the same time, other parts of Australia are crying out for more people – skilled workers to fill job vacancies in occupations like mining, health and aged care, and community services.
I regard this alone as a giant policy question for Australia.
It is truly the mismatch of modern Australia: communities with too many people and not enough jobs and then other communities with too many jobs and not enough people.
This is reason enough to declare that population policy should not be driven by an arbitrary single number.
Instead, I believe it must be driven by the needs and the circumstances of each region across the nation.
But if the numbers are tiny against the total migrant intake, how can they have any effect on growth patterns, sustainable or otherwise?
They can’t. Numbers of people arriving by boat are nothing to do with sustainability and everything to do with electability.
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