Many people assume that the events in Egypt over the last 18 days are a simple case of ‘people power’ seeking to remove a drained, corrupt, unpopular president, who is desperately clinging to power. Certainly the renewed vigour and importance of the Arab ‘street’, and the power of the protests in Egypt and Tunisia, have been important.


But what is really happening is a three-way tussle over the future political and economic structure of Egypt.

The protesters in Tahrir Square – and now across many cities and large towns in Egypt – and Mubarak, are indeed two protagonists, and the most visible ones. In one sense, the protesters have already defeated Mubarak: he has agreed to step aside in September after elections for a successor, and to the extent that the protesters were trying to get rid of the president, they have (almost certainly) succeeded.

But if the protesters are actually angry at the political system in Egypt – the unemployment, the high cost of living, the corruption, the bloated and inefficient bureaucracy, the behind-the-scenes power of the armed forces and intelligence services, the list goes on – and this is the real source of the rage of many of them, then removing Mubarak would be only a modest change.

This leads to the third force at work in Egypt now: the army. The army is happy to sacrifice Mubarak’s presidency, but behind the scenes, it is also working to ensure that the system is preserved, with only cosmetic changes, as a result of the protests. The army has several motivations. Perhaps most important, it sees itself as the guarantor of a secular, modernising, pro-Western state: it has been the key political institution in Egypt for around a century, and every leader since the 1952 Free Officers coup has been a military man.

The military fears and will oppose anything that challenges the system; Marxists or other far-left forces are unpopular, even if many officers retain a commitment to a strong state. Above all, the Muslim Brotherhood, not to mention more extremist groups, is unacceptable to the army (beyond acquiescing since the 1970s to a controlled, modest Islamisation in some civil society spaces such as in some courts and professional syndicates). The military also wants to retain American aid (at least US$1.3 billion per year) and access to US military technology and hardware.

Finally, the army has its own power in the existing system. While a bright individual can sometimes make a fortune in the private sector, the officer ranks provide a very comfortable career to bright people, and the army has built up business interests and economic power of its own – farms, processed food manufacturing, textiles, etc – autonomous from the state and from the vagaries of annual budgets. The idea has been to give them some economic independence from economic conditions and to avoid corruption… but it has also separated the army from the rest of Egypt, given them a revenue and power base of their own, and delivered a certain luxury to their elite.

So what now? The protestors are furious that Mubarak did not resign when he made his national address overnight, and there is every chance that as this frustration grows, the protestors will become more violent. They are unlikely to accept Mubarak’s commitment to hand more powers over to his Vice President, Omar Suleiman – in fact Suleiman is not very popular with the protestors, and is seen as too close to Mubarak and too resistant to the change they want – and so even if Mubarak had resigned, the protests may have continued against Suleiman anyway. Even if the protests avoid becoming violent, they will continue.

What Mubarak and the army are trying to do is ensure a face-saving and smooth transfer of power from the increasingly-desperate president to a successor. The army will easily sacrifice Mubarak, but they will never allow true political change to occur unless they are absolutely certain about its outcomes and that it will preserve the army’s benefits under the current system.

The protesters need to realise this. They can stay on the streets, as they probably will, and might well remove Mubarak sooner than September if they do so. But if they are truly upset about the system, and about what life in Egypt has become, then just removing the president would be an unconvincing victory. However the problem – and the deeper threat to Egypt’s future – is that, if violence becomes the protesters’ resort now, or if they challenge the army’s core interests, then the protesters will have a pyrrhic victory at best and probably, in the final analysis, none at all.

Of the three protagonists – Mubarak, the protesters, and the army – it is the army that will have its way.

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    • john says:

      10:36am | 11/02/11

      Spot on Mathew when you state “But what is really happening is a three-way tussle over the future political and economic structure of Egypt.”
      With democracy comes, Maccas, KFC, toyota,and every other piece of plastic junk made in china, by global corporations, glass skyscrapers, and perhaps even the Olympic games, consumerism ....watch out Egypt here they all come, the political tussle is just the side show. Everyone is salivating. Whats the bet now that suburbia has reached the base of the pyramids, that maccas will open up?

      The question is will the middle east economic power shift to Cairo? Can a society taking such a big bite into the future be able to chew it so to speak, remains to be seen, stay tuned.
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBzJGckMYO4&feature=related

    • Stewart says:

      04:20pm | 11/02/11

      Hey John, they have KFC and Maccas to name a few. They are already very westernized due to high volumes of tourism. In fact, if you follow the Sphinx’s eye line, it is looking at a KFC across the road from the gate to get into the sound and light show.

    • Fu says:

      04:23pm | 11/02/11

      You are wrong because democracy does not garentee better economics; it does not garentee any of the things in your list in any way whatsoever; capitalism is the driver for self-indulgent consumerism over social equity not democracy . Even if a new government is put in place in Egypt the economic problems are still the same if not worst than prior to the riots; as businesses have been crippled and production has halted it would be assumed that unemployment will be higher and inflation increasing as basic local goods become scarce…. this hurts the poorest of the poor the most? To solve the poverty issues short term, the immediate demands will be for higher taxation and more governement welfare and spending; this would be the opposite to capitalism and a move towards socialism. This is very difficult of course since people don’t like lending money to places that have just had huge civil unrest; unless the interest is at a huge premium, so while they could provide in the short term, they will be povertised further in the long term since they are purchasing with high debt costs; also tourism, production and exports have declined and so less money to be taxed which means even more has to be borrowed. Changing governements doesn’t change the reality that their is scarse resources; it doesn’t change how economics fundamentally works. One of two things will happen if a new governement is installed; either they do some harsh decisions which means pissing off some people to make others happy - ie. default on all their international debt obligations (US will prob freeze all their accuonts if they try this) or they will clam up once they realise that they still have the same problems to solve, that is limited resource and lots of needs to fill.  People forget that modern democracies have only had strong economics in the past due to a foundation of slavery; US, UK, Europe all built up on the back of slavery (free labour); they then used that as a platform to gain economic superiority early. Overtime the economics of excess have not been sustainable; look at the GFC and the soveign debt issues around the eurozone. Even today Australian’s demand more socialism constantly whinging about equality and capitalistic behaviour of businesses (which mind you gives most of the public their jobs).

    • marley says:

      05:50pm | 11/02/11

      @Fu - you say, and I quote, “People forget that modern democracies have only had strong economics in the past due to a foundation of slavery; US, UK, Europe all built up on the back of slavery (free labour); they then used that as a platform to gain economic superiority early.”

      This is utter nonsense.  Whatever other points you might have, this is such an egregious misunderstanding of history that it negates everything else you’ve said.  The UK and Europe were not built on slavery - their economies took off in the industrial revolution only after the feudal system and serfdom disappeared.  The US built its economy in the industrial, non-slave-holding North, not the slave-holding south. And the one European country that hung on with serfs into the 1860s, (Russia) was notoriously the most backward economically of any. 

      Whatever faults capitalism and democracy have, reliance on slave labour isn’t one of them.

    • john says:

      09:16pm | 11/02/11

      @Fu how wrong and short sighted your views are, perhaps a short stint living in Iran might be a lesson in your views of democracy. You claim strong economics had its foundations from slavery- what a load of rubbish. Slavery was abolished ~150 years ago- irrelevant- way before the first car in 1888 and before the first aircraft flew in 1903. Australia’s population was around 500,000 of scattered villages, Wall Street trading was conducted under a tree which the building now stands that was built in 1914.
      Strong economics in early times was forged upon the consolidation of modern empires,the industrial revolution by the west, trade from resources, conquered or otherwise, to some degree war, and in recent times creation of the EU, and the emerging economies of India & Asia. Democracy in the west was forged from blood spilled by millions over thousands of years starting from the founders of ancient Greece. The US in modern history refined economics and democracy and created wall street and one currency- the $US dollar.

      The middle-east has just started to and asia are well on thier way- whether they like it or not, morphing into that structure created by the west. You can figure out why.

      Your views on Egypt are amateurish and incredibly flawed, as if put together by a teenager and not worthy of a reply.


      Not sure which Uni or internet search you got your trash from.

    • NoNames says:

      05:44am | 12/02/11

      Nice big airbrush you’ve got there, Fu.

    • Tom says:

      12:38pm | 12/02/11

      @Marley and John, thanks for attempting to counter Fu’s new paradigm of the world with reality.

      However, I sense that Fu will continue to blog his lie relentlessly in the future and, when you (and others) get sick of correcting his lie, it will stand unopposed as a self evident truth.

      Fu’s tactic reminds us of the way the Malleus Maleficarum (Latin for “The Hammer of Witches”, or “Hexenhammer” in German)  was written in 1486 by Heinrich Kramer to challenge all arguments against the existence of witchcraft and to instruct magistrates on how to identify, interrogate and convict witches. After being dismissed as rubbish by thinking people, the document (based on scurrilous lies, was accepted among the powers all because Kramer pushed it through the back door (a falsified papal bull).

      I am rapidly getting frightened by the modern “consensus” process which involves mob manipulation and stampeding people rather than rational debate. Again, thanks for standing up against B/S.

    • simon says:

      11:04am | 11/02/11

      Mubarack’s attitude through all this has all the hallmarks of a true dictator. He would rather see innocent civilians die than step down, what does that tell you?? He is a disgrace and his only option now is to step down immediately, he may even retain some dignity!!!!

    • Sam says:

      03:32pm | 11/02/11

      didn’t get what you wanted so all of a sudden the man has no dignity? Quite the opposite, he has the dignity not to run away to Switzerland and live happily ever after and instead he’s staring down the protesters while still giving them time of day.

    • mary says:

      07:49am | 12/02/11

      Sam, there is no dignity is staying where one is not wanted. That’s called bullying.

    • stephen says:

      11:10am | 11/02/11

      Iran wants to meddle.
      Just wait for the headlines, and if they do, perhaps the warning by the Saudis to the US not to interfere in any transitions may be wrong.
      Certainly the general population want a good Democracy, but there are hostile interests there and abroad who want something else.

    • Traxster says:

      11:34am | 11/02/11

      Mubarak ...dignity ???
      Isn’t that an oxymoron.
      And watch out for the Mullahs,they’ve been too quiet.

    • simon says:

      12:36pm | 11/02/11

      Traxster, I apologize you are right the use of Mubarack and dignity in the same sentence is an oxymoron. I guess what I meant was, If he does step down soon, he may be allowed back into the country at some point without being constantly abused, humiliated and threatened by the populace!!! What’s the word for that?

    • A.K.A. says:

      01:12pm | 11/02/11

      @simon.

      The word is “Fantasy”

      Arabs have wars which are generational.  This guys ruled a country for 30 odd years and pissed off a lot of people.  Fat chance they are going to “forgive and forget”.

      If he isn’t careful, I reckon his head may roll… literally.

    • Sam says:

      03:29pm | 11/02/11

      crickey, I think he’s come out of it looking quite the statesman. He’s listened and taken it on board and drawn the line at losing control of his country’s future and he hasn’t massacred the protesters… what a nice guy.

    • TChong says:

      07:44am | 12/02/11

      Sam, not sure if your doing irony, but ...
      Mubarak and hismurderous filth are some how dignified.?
      Mubarak deserves to face justice for all those his regieme murdered.
      May this human filth be tormented by guilt, but to do so would require empathy, a human quality this animal and his plague of scum are incapable of.
      His paid murderers and secret service must be very, very worried for very good reason.
      Payback- it couldnt happen to a more deserving cesspit of vermin.
      Wouldnt be surprised if the US puppet state of Iraq provides sanctuary for many of the criminal Mubarak regieme.

    • iansand says:

      06:05pm | 13/02/11

      The army tapped Mubarak on the shoulder. 

      The big test will be when the time comes for the army to surrender power.

    • Daniel says:

      11:50am | 11/02/11

      Im watching this very closely. I hope the people rise up and get what they are so desperatly after. Its been too long.

    • Tom says:

      12:42pm | 12/02/11

      Daniel, perhaps we could all toss in the fare for you to fly over there, link arms and sing Kumbaya with the gentle peace loving people that will replace him?

    • Pat says:

      12:47pm | 11/02/11

      The word is denigration.

    • Kika says:

      01:31pm | 11/02/11

      It’s a very curious situation in Egypt. The whole middle east might erupt. A caliphate may be established. Israel must be very concerned as their stablility is largely dependant on a co-operative and supportive Egypt.

    • Dodge says:

      04:20pm | 11/02/11

      Someone needs to watch a little less Fox News - except Glen Beck, he’s impossibly funny. Warnings of a ‘Caliphate’ are ridiculous when matched to the actual actions of the people in Egpyt protesting.

      I can’t remember seeing such large demonstrations that didn’t involve burning Western flags, that in itself should be considered a victory for democracy. The right play a dangerous but necasary game pointing out Islamic influence like the Muslim Brotherhood with such monotony. I’d ather not see a Boy who Cried Wolf scenario out of Egpyt with that particular group.

    • stephen says:

      01:46pm | 12/02/11

      Jordan and Egypt are the only 2 in the Middle East who have a peace treaty with Israel.
      Damascus, I think, are getting closer to a resolution of the Golan Heights, in which case, Syria may join, too.
      I think and hope that if Egypt inherits Mr. Suiliman as the new President, then the Middle East may well change, and the falling checkers could well spread to Iran.
      Here’s hoping.

    • Sad Sad Reality says:

      02:32pm | 11/02/11

      2:1 on a Muslim dictatorship ruling the country within 10 years. The lead up will be sectarian violence on a massive scale.

    • michael j says:

      03:05pm | 11/02/11

      Bigger Tanks and more bombs preferably naphlam,,its about time the yanks got involved if only to say its to protect israel,,did anyone notice the show on sbs? the other nite 3 billion people will starve in 2048 because we have lost the abilty to produce enought food,,this egypt story will be a fizzer in a week,,

    • Brett says:

      09:36am | 14/02/11

      Why would anyone want to protect Israel? They’re bigger terrorists than the middle east combined. Plus they have proven they can fight their own wars (with American money) and if all else fails nuke the middle east since they never signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Then again America will protect them as Jews bankroll politicians, so the relaity is that the USA will step in if Isreal is threatened. They helped them steal a country, why not help them keep it.

    • Paradoxia says:

      03:45pm | 11/02/11

      It’s too hard for an Islamic nation to become a true democracy - that’s another oxymoron as Allah and Mohammad must come first.

    • marley says:

      12:48pm | 12/02/11

      Turkey’s doing ok these days.

    • Pete says:

      04:17pm | 11/02/11

      It’s inane to think these benighted people will kick out a hardman dictator and suddenly wake up in a florid democracy. Corruption, a misunderstanding of the responsibilities of democracy and plain old venality are endemic from the top down to your local taxi driver. The journey to a functioning democracy is going to be a long one for people in the middle east. The West should just get out of the way.

    • Gregg says:

      12:29am | 12/02/11

      The news that the military will be the key players in Egypt ain’t exactly recent news Matthew and it will just remain to see how it plays out and whether we have something like Libya, Saudi Arabia, Iraq as it was and will be again, Iran, Myanmar or a NK, none of them a particular rosy pick.

      You’re kind of offering an oxymoron of views there too Matthew as the army seeing itself as the guarantor of a secular, modernising, pro-Western state will only be to earn as much in the way of western aid as it can get.

      They will certainly oppose anything that challenges the system that services them and to that end it’ll probably depend on who can best garner the power of their military that will determine Egypt’s immediate future.

      Whether we can call that modernising or not is another matter for modernising as in furthering development of their own interests, yes it may be though there’ll not be too much in the way of modernising the chances of true democracy.

    • mary says:

      07:59am | 12/02/11

      For now the people have triumphed. Well done and God bless.

    • Tony says:

      09:03am | 12/02/11

      You seem to have missed the 4th force, the muslim brotherhood.

    • mary monica roche says:

      09:47am | 12/02/11

      Muburak is no longer Egypt Boss !
      Democracy has arrived in Egypt !!.

    • Ras Putin says:

      11:34am | 12/02/11

      You call a military in control ,democracy Mary?? Come Come!!

    • NoNames says:

      11:51am | 12/02/11

      Democracy arrived? What nonsense. They’ve exchanged a dictator for a junta.

      No election has been held, and none is due until September.

      *If* they can get to that without bloodshed, and *if* they hold that election, and *if* it produces a clean un-fixed result, then they may just have a democracy of sorts.

      Don’t be suprised if that doesn’t happen.

      And even if it does, don’t be surprised if the result is a fundamentalist Muslim party driving a sharia-law government far to the fundamentalist right.

    • jazz says:

      01:36pm | 12/02/11

      Wake up folks,this was manipulated by The New World Order to take over the middle east and promote their agenda. It was leaked from the CIA yesterday in the USA that Mubarak would stand down today.The problem that exists for the people of Egypt is that the Egyptian Military and the Muslim Brotherhood are on the USA payroll. Whats next probably World War 3.Watch your back and the spin that goes on with governments and media as they are all working for The New World Order.God help us if they get their way as it will be Nazi Germany over again.

    • Nick says:

      01:44pm | 12/02/11

      Fools - they now have a military dictatorship. N

    • iansand says:

      06:07pm | 13/02/11

      A(nother) military dictatorship

    • MrV says:

      06:09pm | 12/02/11

      Sick of all the talk of ‘democracy, democracy, democracy’, what is truly needed is freedom and liberty for the people of Egypt.
      3 wolves and a sheep voting over dinner is not whats needed.

    • Rick says:

      09:54pm | 12/02/11

      The protesters need to realise this.
      The army has the real power now and they can use in a different way.

      Democracy is just a dream word , even in the Oi Oi Oi country.

      Democracy does not mean just voting as we are told.

      Only Switzerland practice true democracy in which people are sovereign and have the democratic right via a petition currently 50 000 citizens can call to have a referendum to amend their constitution or any laws not reflecting the will of the people.

    • Brett says:

      09:42am | 14/02/11

      Damn straight!!!

      Besides the ideas behind democracy have to be bred into the populace. Democracy epically fails in a lot of countries because they are inherently corrupt or autocratic. Think of suggesting democracy in 14th century England, would the people know what to do or how to act? Or would the elected leader just be a power hungry douche with even less care factor for the people and the country as the outgoing king? This is much the same with modern countries.

      At least the Swiss can overturn their politicians stuff ups.

    • NESLIHAN KUROSAWA says:

      11:20pm | 12/02/11

      Hi there,

      It is not about a revolution, it is all about people wanting more money to spend, better health care and a better life for their children.  To me personally, it is not any different to the clashes we have witnessed in some European countries like Greece and France.  Why should it be different anyway??  It is not about religion at all!!  At the end of the day people are saying “eneough is eneough”.  It is all about questioning the system as well as how it works for some and not the others in the general population.

      In the Middle Eastern countries most people tend to have larger families,  with the rising cost of food and other everyday essentials in their lives.  No wonder they are protesting for their rights and in the process they are trying to express their discontent with the system.  A true democracy??  May be not!!  However, we always have to aim higher, and it is not wrong to want better rights, living standards and happiness for our families, if not for ourselves.  Whether it happens to be in Greece or Egypt!! Best regards to your editors.

    • Catching up says:

      10:30am | 13/02/11

      Many Christians also believe god comes first.  The west has got over that obstacle.  I believe the east will too.

 

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