Australian voter confidence in Kevin Rudd’s statements has slumped to such a low that he may as well have set up shop on Sydney’s Parramatta Road selling used cars.

There may be a small consolation for the Prime Minister in taking a drive down there to see that they still manage to do business.
Polling of thousands of voters shows trust in the nation’s leader has practically evaporated. Despite the sustained Labor attack on the credibility of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott, it is Rudd who is seen by the electorate as the bigger fake, and by a wide margin.
After enjoying unprecedented approval ratings in his first two years in office Rudd is now living proof of the maxim that the higher you fly, the harder you fall.
The Coredata research tracked authentic the leadership of the main political parties as seen by voters in four surveys since March.
It was by dumb luck that the last survey began the day after Abbott made his celebrated appearance on ABC TV’s 7.30 Report in which he said that “in the heat of discussion, you go a little bit further than you would if was an absolutely calm, considered, prepared, scripted remark.”
Labor seized on this as evidence that nothing Abbott said could be believed. He was branded “phoney Tony”, attack ads appeared on YouTube, and his quote was repeated with glee by ministers in Question Time.
But according to the Coredata research, the attacks didn’t work. In the poll of over 3700 people Abbott’s rating for truthfulness and reliability simply didn’t budge.
Instead the biggest shift in the surveys was the collapse in Rudd’s credibility in a matter of weeks, after he decided to shelve the emissions trading scheme. In March he scored -12 on the reliability scale. In early May, around the time of the ETS decision, this had shifted to an abysmal -41, creeping back up a few points to -36 by the end of the month.
“We were surprised at how quickly Rudd collapsed,” said Coredata principal Andrew Inwood. “We are genetically predisposed to working with people we can trust. Once you have been tagged as someone untrustworthy it’s pretty hard to get it back.”
By comparison, Abbott’s reliability rating trended upwards over the course of the surveys. He started at -20 in the first survey before jumping to -6 at the end of March. In early May – before the 7.30 Report incident – he had rolled downhill to -15 before creeping up a statistically insignificant point in the final survey.
The deputy party leaders – Julia Gillard for Labor and Joe Hockey for the Liberals – rate much more strongly than their bosses for both reliability and truthfulness, though by virtue of their jobs they are not subject to the same white heat of scrutiny as Abbott and Rudd.
But is trust everything in politics? In 2004 John Howard stunned many observers when, despite his depiction by enemies as being loose with the truth after his about-face on the GST and accusations of a cover-up in the children overboard affair, he opened the election campaign declaring it would be decided on trust.
What Howard showed, and what the research on Abbott’s credibility reflects, is that voters are willing to forgive a politician for not keeping to the letter of their political promises.
Authenticity, though, is a different matter. Rudd has some experience of surviving a scandal with his popularity unscathed: his approval ratings increased after it was revealed he had been cavorting in a New York strip club.
What a different matter it would have been if Rudd had characterised scantily-clad women as the greatest moral challenge of our time.
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