Every now and again Newspoll, like any other, throws up an anomalous result, which evens out in the next survey. But even if today’s numbers are just half right Kevin Rudd must have a very bad case of indigestion from that hotdog he scoffed at the Labour Day march in Brisbane yesterday.

Hand me the Mylanta… Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen.

The news for the PM is very bad. As Dennis Shanahan writes: “The Prime Minister’s personal satisfaction rating has dropped the most in the shortest time in the 20-year history of Newspoll ... the two-party preferred support for Labor has dropped to 49 per cent while the Coalition’s has risen from 46 per cent 51 per cent.”

Small Business Minister Craig Emerson was putting a brave face on things this morning, saying the results were thanks to the Government’s recent “tough decisions” such as the massive tax hike on cigarettes.

But a few pieces of analysis see it differently.

In his comment piece in The Australian Shanahan says: “The image of him being gutless and not standing for anything, having dumped his climate change policy, has hurt his standing as prime minister like no other issue.”

And another piece of research reported by The Daily Telegraph’s Malcolm Farr this morning also sheds light on the Newspoll result.

According to Farr:

No matter how worthy or necessary his policy choices, Rudd must hack through a thicket of suspicion before he can convince a substantial proportion of the electorate that his intentions are straightforward.

The poorly-handled decision to pause on the battle to introduce an ETS seriously devalued Rudd’s policy credibility, and he is paying the price on tax reform.

Just 36 per cent of voters believe the Government increased the tax on cigarettes last week because Rudd was passionate about improving health in Australia, according to an authoritative Galaxy poll.

The poll, commissioned by the Institute of Public Affairs, found 53 per cent believed the attack on smoking was in fact a bid to deflect attention from other issues.

And on The Punch this morning Peter Lewis takes a good look a the latest Essential Report, which shows just how bad a look dumping the ETS was.

Newspoll chief Martin O’Shannessy was just on AM saying the huge drop for Rudd and the Government could be a “protest vote”, and may be corrected, but that the relatively steady results for the Coalition and Greens showed the poll may not be a wild anomaly.

So the diagnosis is fairly clear, but what’s the prognosis?

As an aside: Last week Opposition health spokesman Peter Dutton suggested Labor was manipulating Newspoll by making announcements such as the cigarette tax while the poll was in the field. If that’s true, the ALP must be rethinking that strategy today…

246 comments

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    • Charles Radford Bourke says:

      08:27am | 04/05/10

      My prediction:
      The voters will increase their vote for greens.
      Greens will give all preferences to Labour
      Labour will return
      Change of leadership
      Any “special deal” will be cancelled

    • Overflow says:

      09:10am | 04/05/10

      I tend to agree, Rudd is still way ahead as preferred PM so any shift is still unlikely to move to the Coalition.  BUT if Rudd continues to have trouble after the budget all bets are off and this is a distinct possibility.  We have to have a budget that reduces expenditure, if Labor fail to do this they are history.  If they do they still might have a problem given that we need to cut due to excessive spending which opens up a line of attack from the Coalition, either way the next few weeks will be interesting.

    • Joe says:

      09:28am | 04/05/10

      I don’t think the dopey public realise that a vote for the Greens is a Vote for Labor. Especially somewhere like QLD, your Green vote has NEVER gotten a green elected - just propped up the Labor vote..

    • Elphaba says:

      09:48am | 04/05/10

      This worries me.  People thinking they’re sticking it to Rudd by voting Green.

      *shakes head*

    • Wayne Fehlhaber says:

      10:19am | 04/05/10

      The Coalition are yet to release detailed policy which will turn public attention to the alternative Abbott led Liberal/National coalition. There can be no doubt that the conservatives will regain lost voters .
      The gain showing in current Newspoll relates to Labor’s inability to deliver on policy and it’s program failures.
      The public is well aware that The Rudd govt. has jetissioned major election promises and bungled many of it’s programs initiated during the G.F.C. 
      When the inevitable polarisation occurs in the electorate , we should see more clearly , the effect of this govt’s failure to deliver , but we will have to wait until Tony Abbott releases detailed policy . Should be interesting times ahead.
      The Greens ( de-facto Labor ) preferences may not be enough to give Labor a free ride to office this time . Their tendency to abandon their principles in backing Labor at state level , has started to grate on the electorate’s nerves . A reduced Green’s primary vote is a distinct possibility , which enhances the chance of a political upset . Let’s wait and see.

    • persephone says:

      11:21am | 04/05/10

      Well, I’m comfortable with waiting until Abbott releases detailed policy, given the reception of his thought bubbles so far.

      Must be a concern, Wayne, that so many of the disaffected Labor voters didn’t go to Tony, but parked their vote in the ‘Others’ column.

      Face it - someone who’s decided to ‘teach Rudd a lesson’ because they wanted quicker action on the ETS, is not going to end up voting for Tone at the next election.

    • Sam says:

      11:42am | 04/05/10

      Just heard on news that two Tasmanian Greens ( partnered couple McKim and O’Connor) in their new roles conveniently propping up the failed Labor government, have been given CHAUFFEUR DRIVEN MINISTERIAL CARS.  Now.  How’s that for DO AS I SAY BUT NOT AS I DO!

      Carbon-emitting Greens.

    • Wayne Fehlhaber says:

      12:53pm | 04/05/10

      persephone :  Sure , who knows where those disaffected Labor voters may finish with , but my guess is that they will rest with the Coalition after Abbott releases policy.  I don’t think there can be too much concern in the electorate as to Abbott’s thought bubbles thus far , as the Newspoll suggests he is travelling ok even before release of Coalition policy.  Pers. , when the previous Newspoll was released , you were
      quite happy to run with the result as being beaut for Labor , not a bad result for the Liberal/National Coalition this time round , is it ?
      I don’t think the drift of Labor’s lost votes to ” others ” is of paramount importance at this point because the poll shows the Green’s vote static ,
      which won’t do much for Labor’s defacto preferences.
      These polls are way too early to take much notice of , but after Abbott releases policy , and if the polls begin to show consistency in a return to the Conservatives , then Rudd has reason to chew his fingernails.

    • john mcjohnboy says:

      01:00pm | 04/05/10

      I would suggest the “dopey public” know exactly what they’re doing by switching votes from Labor to the Greens.  They’re showing their dissatisfaction with Rudd Labor while avoiding giving any support to the Libs, and that’s exactly what i intend to do at the next election smile

    • Wayne Fehlhaber says:

      01:21pm | 04/05/10

      john mcjohnboy :  The Newspoll result isn’t exactly cheery news for the Greens as their primary vote remains static.  The Liberals increased their primary vote and ” others ” gained most of the disaffected Labor votes. Suggest you read the poll result carefully.

    • James says:

      01:26pm | 04/05/10

      Amen, I am not voting Labour but it would be a cold day in hell when I voted for the Libs with the Mad Monk in charge

    • James Mc says:

      01:37pm | 04/05/10

      I thought we as voters got to decide who our peferences go to.
      Don’t take the leaflet at the polling booth and dont follow what other people say.
      Easy.

    • John Mc Wayneboy says:

      02:22pm | 04/05/10

      Thanks Wayne, I was actually replying to the first few comments in this thread, not directly commenting on the poll.

    • Wayne Fehlhaber says:

      05:52pm | 04/05/10

      John McWayneboy :  My mistake , my apologies John , i follow your reasoning. Best wishes John.

    • Anti Major Mistake or "Others" Man. says:

      06:25pm | 04/05/10

      Gday everybody, The News Poll showed 8% dropped from getup/labour with only 3% going to the Liberal/National Coalition, 5% going to others.

      It is a very safe bet, that at least 90% of those, “others” votes will be preferencing the conservatives over the red/green/getup/labour coalition. I have been both blogging, (not just here), moving in a wide variety of social circles & publicly over the last year.

      1, Everybody starts out, bitching about “Krudd the Dud”, “Ruddbot”, etc, but, after talking, they have all,  “gotten” that it does not matter which poster Boy/Girl they have out front, you still end up with the red/green/getup/labour coalition.

      2, Many traditional swinging voters speak wistfully about the “Australian Democrats”. Some have already rejoined. I have checked with party officials & membership is on the rise.

      http://www.democrats.org.au/

      3, Many catholic ex labour voters are turning to the DLP, Democratic Labour Party. Again i have checked with party officials & membership is also rising.

      http://www.dlp.org.au/

      4, The red/greens are indeed a vote for getup/labour but are not even just from the loony, left. Many of the leadership in fact, like Germain Greer are Trotskyites from the “Frankfurt” school. “The glorious revolution cannot even start until we have destroyed the foundations of society, family, church, education, morals, ethics, etc.”

      5, All of the non catholics &/or non loony, left, ex labour voters i spoke to responded very positively to Graeme Campbell, former ALP member for “Kalgoorlie”, during the Hawke/Keating years & his AFP, Australia First Party.

      6, there are plenty of others as well.

      http://australianpolitics.com/parties/list.shtml

      Regards the former snag & swinging voter.

    • Dan says:

      10:38pm | 04/05/10

      Hows Kevin’s form? He takes over government with a 20 billion surplus, thanks largely to a resources boom. Blows the lot and then some on half baked crazy schemes, because he paniced. Now he wants to tax these companies enormous amounts so he can invest in infrastructure and super?  Maybe he should have invested wisely when he had the opportunity.  This government is a joke, I wouldn’t trust them to run a primary school fete without making a balls up of it.  This government has surely got to go.  Clive Palmer is correct when he calls them fools.These mining projects require super profits to get them off the ground and allow for expansions.Bring back Costello and Turnbull, they might have the smarts to get this situation back on track.

    • Pty Ltd says:

      08:39am | 05/05/10

      Dont agree Charles,bit slow with predictons,bit cautious,Greens will lose votes,the conserquence of not really being anything but a spoiler vote,If the powerbase was as strong and legimate as vetted Legislation would sail through unopposed,I see the Nationals increasing their vote and Rudd battling to keep Labor afloat

    • John A Neve says:

      08:56am | 05/05/10

      Charles,

      This is a claimed democracy isn’t it?

      The voter determines their preferences, not the party. Or do you do a donkey vote?

    • Mike Creighton says:

      08:49am | 04/05/10

      According to Shanahan “It appears that of the eight points Labor lost only three went to the Coalition and five went to ‘others’. The Greens were unchanged on 10 per cent of the primary vote.”  Who are these ‘others?

    • Anton says:

      09:53am | 04/05/10

      There are about 30 “others”, depending on where you live. People living in a democracy actually have a responsibility to inform themselves about all the political options available. Not just the party name and leader, but the actual ideology and belief of each party. You could use the “internet thingy” if you like.

      The Liberal Democratic Party most closely aligns with my beliefs (http://www.ldp.org.au), but you should do your own research.

    • Constance Bourke says:

      08:50am | 04/05/10

      Lets hope krudd’s spin doctors use “Mikes Nature Trick” to “Hide the decline”.

    • Darryl Price says:

      08:52am | 04/05/10

      The next thing Craig Emerson said was they were going to “keep making decisions”. Scary.

    • joe says:

      09:30am | 04/05/10

      I heard one Labor minister try to spin it today that the ANNOUNCEMENTS hadn’t gone well. In reality it was what they were announcing that was the issue (BER waste, pink bat backflip, ETS backflip…)! Once again Labor thought it was all about not good enough spinning.

    • Anti Major Mistake Man. says:

      08:52am | 04/05/10

      @ Tory, i was at the march yesterday catching up with old union colleagues, communists, you name it. There was a larger crowd than i have seen for years.

      Everybody i spoke to without exception was bitterly disappointed in the performance of the red/green/getup/labour coalition both state & federally.

      “Krudd the dud” was heckled, hurried through his speech & ran off stage surrounded by “fridges in suits” with bulges under their armpits.

      Paul Lucas was, “verbally” torn to shreds by the wolf pack, mob.

      Many catholics i spoke to were rejoining the DLP, Democratic Labour Party more than a few already had. The loony, lefties were already in the red/greens. The protestants were all joining “Graeme Campbell’s” “Australia First”, many already had.

    • Joe says:

      09:23am | 04/05/10

      The media ran the predictable line that everyone was mates with Rudd while hostile of the acting QLD Premier over their decision to sell of vital assets because of financial mismanagement.

      You could see Rudd’s media managed stunts on multiple TV channels with him getting interviewed while walking in the march - one setup journo after another. I think people are seeing through these cheap tricks. People now realise Rudd is all spin no substance.

    • steveo says:

      05:47pm | 04/05/10

      Gee, were we at different meetings.
      Your fantasy perhaps, but not the reality.
      Wishing it doesn’t make it so.

    • julia says:

      09:58pm | 04/05/10

      @ Joe: When Krudd smiles and giggles like a maniac, you know he’s in trouble. Body language 101.

      And now…. Persephone

    • Luke says:

      08:53am | 04/05/10

      Rudd/Labors constant game of playing the politics instead of sticking to policy is bringing them undone. Obviously this game is now picked up by the Australian voter and it exposes a weak PM who is running the country based on polls, his fight to be re elected, and remaining popular with the voters. There is no courage of his convictions, and plays constant games and trickery through the media, which more and more people are now picking up on. Every time he does or says anything, more and more people are asking what is his political motive behind that decision? Unfortunately Kevin Rudd is about “Kevin” 1st, “Australia” 2nd.

    • Joe says:

      09:25am | 04/05/10

      And Rudd does a terrible job at pretending to be a down to earth bloke. He isn’t even good at spinning that.

    • Kevin07 says:

      09:37am | 04/05/10

      Oh come on Joe, stripclubs, fair suck of the sauce bottle, dropping the word sh!t on air, calling everyone mate. How much more down to earth can you get?

    • Bazza says:

      10:41am | 04/05/10

      Kevin Rudd started his response to the Henry tax review with a folksy story about “down on the farm”.Spin before he even started.This man is the most dishonest ,poll driven PM this country has ever had.Every move he makes is politically motivated and planned . His first priority is his own poll rating not the state of the economy.42,000,000,000,000 in debt already!!!!

    • steveo says:

      05:49pm | 04/05/10

      This sounds more like the Coalition created perception with the help of News Limited.
      The Coalition are going to owe Murdoch big time.

    • steveo says:

      05:54pm | 04/05/10

      Oh please! Are you serious?
      This after what Costello said of the Coalition? Since Rudd’s elevation to leadership the Coalition have been attacking the man. Neutering policies or blocking them totally.
      This is how the right wins elections.  Christ, they all but conceded the debt issue that toppled Keating was hyperbole.

    • Christian Real says:

      05:23am | 05/05/10

      Steveo, The Australian appears to be just another arm of the Liberal party and they they also appear to have always been politically bias towards the ALP and other parties.
      The Poll in the Australian, only took in less than 1200 that they phone polled, and that many people does not make up the population of voters around Australia.
      It is people’s choice who they support and vote for, but as a leading newspaper and media outlet The Australian should be neutral and not be seen as a mouthpiece for the political party that they obviously support.
      It would also appear that in some of their storylines on a daily basis that The Australian is attempting to coerce and manipulate the Australian Public into voting for the political party that they themselves support.

    • Wayne Fehlhaber says:

      07:39am | 05/05/10

      Christian Real :  The previous Newspoll was quite acceptable to you Christian but this one is not. ?

    • Tony10 says:

      08:59am | 04/05/10

      Please please let it be true

    • Patricia says:

      11:45am | 04/05/10

      I have no trouble believing the people have turned on Rudd. It’s not all about policy but partly about delivery. Some of the press seem to be treating this as a rough trot or a bad patch but debacle is closer to the mark. Rudd thought government would be easy. He thought the only reason things weren’t perfect before was because others lacked his vision. Arrogance. Government is always slowed down by the necessity to satisfy the various stakeholders, many with opposite requirements. In China it is easy because they don’t bother with this but in democratic countries that value the rule of law and right of property governing is by necessity a subtler art.

    • Joan says:

      12:37pm | 04/05/10

      With every backflip Rudd has lost respect with voters - the ETS being the biggest. Once trust and respect is lost it is difficult to regain

    • Super D says:

      08:59am | 04/05/10

      Your comment:The beginning of the end for Kevin Rudd, if not Labor in government.

      Federal Labor looks more like State Labor everyday.  At a time when the voting public has grown tired of spin doctoring we have as prime minister the greatest spinner the nation has ever seen (off the cricket pitch).

      Basically Rudd is demonstrating with his backflips that he stands for absolutely nothing.  If climate change is the great moral challenge of our time he should have been prepared to risk losing government over it - thats what you do on points of morality. 

      While I don’t agree that climate change is actually a problem at all though ideologies aside the 2 main things I want to see in our governments - integrity and competence.  Rudd Labor has shown little sign of either.  Frankly they deserve to be a oncer.

      I can’t see that any amount of health and hospitals spin will overcome the PM’s credibility crisis which is looking terminal.

    • Andrew says:

      09:13am | 04/05/10

      Do you hear that noise? It’s the sound of Labor’s caucus sharpening their knives. Rudd, with his class war mining super tax poll driven insulation failure BER rip off policies will be given a quick political death by the pragmatists in the Labor caucus. Hello Greg Combet.

    • Mark says:

      10:02am | 04/05/10

      Yep St Julia is no more after the BER debacle. I thought she was being silent to distance herself from Rudd but now I feel she has been hyped up way past her potential.

      Combet is the next in line no doubt and will probably be our next PM.

    • persephone says:

      11:19am | 04/05/10

      150 confirmed complaints out of 24,000 projects.

      Assuming that all these complaints are upheld (very unlikely; some of the ones I’ve read about were complaints they didn’t get more money, not complaints about money being wasted), that’s a better than 99.9% success rate.

      Apparently the independent who did the report is urging Gillard to make it public, so that everyone can judge for themselves how successful the project is.

      It’d be interesting to know how many of you who believe that BER is a ‘disaster’ know what’s happening at your local school - what’s being built, how much it cost, and what the school community thinks about it.

      You can find out the first two by going to:

      http://www.economicstimulusplan.gov.au/mycommunity/pages/default.aspx

      If you’re not hearing anything locally about the third, chances are it’s because the locals are happy.

    • Mark says:

      11:48am | 04/05/10

      Hint pers. I was one of the ones that complained about my local school in the Hastings

      So yeh I know a bit about it.

      I love your deceit. Answer this then. Why did Gillard set up a $14 million enquiry into the mess? Do you concede then that the enquiry is a waste then? What way do you want it pers?

      Stop lying, The truth about your master is coming out.

      He is a weak coward.

      By the way that link is just to a government information site. It means nothing. it is a pointless link designed to mislead. All it shows is what has been spent. Nothing about value for money. Nothing. It shows nought for accountability. Nil for management success. Show me how the projects were given out. Show me the competitive quotes. Show me management fees gouged. Those are a bit hidden.

      So in other words pers stop lying again. It is tiresome. The gutless coward has been found out. The rorts will be exposed. The BER is a loosely disguised attempt at political advertising.

      Billions wasted. Opportunity lost. To pay for it all they raise taxes.

      Labor all over.

      Also “very unlikely; some of the ones I’ve read about were complaints they didn’t get more money, not complaints about money being wasted” - show me one instance of this perpetual spin and lie you trot out. bet you cannot.

      Lies pers, that is all you have. Back it up girl. Like the rest of your pathetic spin doctoring that is a shame also.

    • Super D says:

      11:52am | 04/05/10

      There may be only 150 specific complaints, though there will also be a couple of overarching rorting the system, inflated margins, poor supervision complaints etc that will tar the whole scheme at both the federal and state level.

      The BER program is going to be remembered as the second most colossal waste of money in the nations history after all the money needlessly wasted jumping at climate change shadows.

    • Overflow says:

      12:16pm | 04/05/10

      Pers, I’ll let you in on a little secret, very few state school principals will complain about the BER because they do not want to be harrassed by education ministers and bureaucrats. 

      I would happily compare the facilities built by state govt vs private schools to illustrate the difference in outcomes.  Anyone who thinks there has been value for money is living in another reality.

    • Andrew says:

      12:39pm | 04/05/10

      Pers, how many of the 24,000 projects have actually commenced. What is the procedure for making a complaint. And by the way, if I own a vacant block of land and the government builds a house on it for me, should I care that they are paying over the odds? Maybe, maybe not.

      As a recipient I am grateful for the house, as a tax payer I am disgusted by the waste.

      Anyway you keep defending it.

      BTW I bet when Labor jettisons Rudd, and you know the time is near, you will abandon him very quickly and fall in to line behind the new leader. I just wonder how long it will take for you to start eulogising him the way true believers do of Gough (now second worst government in Australian History) Whitlam. Ahhh, the anticipation.

      Bye Bye Kevin. Better have a lie down Pers.

    • persephone says:

      02:03pm | 04/05/10

      I have said before, Andrew, that I’m not actually fussed over who’s leading the party. Unlike the Libs, I’ve never bought the ‘leader as saviour’ line.

      Before you leap all over me and scream “See, you’re turning off Rudd!” I will point out that that was one of my very early posts on this site.

      If you’re a principal, or a school council member, you know the procedure to make a complaint. There’s a contact number provided with the information pack, with a clear message that that’s the person to ring with concerns, including if the building you’re being told you’re getting isn’t what you want.

      And anyone at all could make a complaint to the independent enquiry, and do so confidentially, because that’s what independent enquiries are about.

      Don’t be silly, Andrew - if you know that, by approaching the person who is paying for the house, you can get what you want, then of course you’ll do that. I know of a couple of principals who did just that, and there are media reports today of Abbott visiting a school where they were offered a gym when they wanted a library. They pointed this out, and now they’re getting a library.

      It’s the old story - people who have the common sense to point out there’s a better alternative are better off than people who just sit there and accept what they’re given.

    • steveo says:

      09:24pm | 04/05/10

      Mark
      We know that the reason for all these inquiries is driven by the demands of the Coalition and News Limited and the right wing shock jocks.
      Yep! Nothing like the power of the media to alter perceptions and force governments into wasting millions to appease and feed into their deception.

    • Christian Real says:

      07:07am | 05/05/10

      Mark,
      Typical liberal spin by a ardent Liberal supporter like yourself, Tony Abbott must be pleased to have people like you echoing his diatribe in these blogs.
      This is one story that I found on the net and it appears that there are only a small number of complaints, not the grandscale complaints that the Liberal /National party and some of the Liberal aligned newspapers and talkback shows host would like everybody to believe.
      Here is the story:
      “Primary schools give govt program a tick”
      AAP, May 1,2010 12.03am
      “Ninety per cent of primary school principals are happy with the handouts they’ve received through the federal government’s school building program, a survey has found.”
      “But the opposition has seized on the one principal out of 10 who is not pleased,saying it equates to $1,6 billion in wasted stimulus funds.”
      “The online survey,commissioned by the Australian Primary Principals association,received a whooping 2438 replies in just five days - the associations biggest ever response.”
      “Some 89.9 per cent said they had received projects they wanted, but the remaining 10.1 per cent,or 243 principals,complained about budget blowouts and poor communications.”
      This story ,and the rest of this story was found at:
      http://au.news.yahoo.com/a-/latest/7141564/primary-schools-give-govt-programe-a-tick/

    • CSallen says:

      12:21pm | 05/05/10

      so when exactly is Gillard/ Persephone going to take over?

    • BAZZA says:

      12:39pm | 05/05/10

      Not only does kevin ‘07 have his own media company(The ABC,Channel 7) .He is also on every media outlet with his one liners( no questions please). Now he ‘s on Twitter and also has a twit in the punch spouting his dribble. persephone. Straight out of Kevin ‘07s massive media department.

    • Hamish says:

      09:16am | 04/05/10

      The main problem with Labor is perfectly demostrated by Craig Emerson saying raising cigarette taxes is a ‘tough decision’. Please. Need cash = tax smokes. If they think that’s hard, they’re delusional.

      Rudd’s (and Labor’s) problem is that no one is their right mind trusts them to do anything anymore. Rudd’s catalogue of failures is so extensive, it’s almost like a piece of political satire. The other issue is that he doesn’t really have the cash to buy votes now (or at least just buying votes would open him up to criticism that he spends like a drunken sailor…which he does).

      However, I think only two governments in Australian history have been voted out after only one term, so I think it’s a bit too early to celebrate. By the time the election comes around many voters may have forgotten Rudd’s laundry list of embarrassments and I’m sure the Union movement will come to the party with a nice scare campaign over Abbott bringing back WorkChoices.

      However, at least now some faith in the Australian electorate has been restored.

    • WKH says:

      09:42am | 04/05/10

      Now now Hamish! Raising tobacco taxes is tough and rightly so. It is the mechanism the government is using to help save your life and quit that dirty disgusting legal habit…Increase tax and reduce demand. Just like the new big tax on mining. Increase taxes and these business’s will boom..ah hang on a minute! How does that work again.

    • Marie says:

      09:57am | 04/05/10

      Hamish: Well said. I would just add, do NOT vote for the Greens.

    • Hamish says:

      10:09am | 04/05/10

      Good point Marie. A vote for the Watermelons is basically a vote for Labor.

      Although it would be nice if a couple of elecorates (like the pretentious, faux-ho, hippie, no-shoe-wearing electorate I’m in) fall to the Greens from Labor. After all, the Coalition won’t win them anyway.

    • oops says:

      10:18am | 04/05/10

      Yes ......Do not vote for Greens, look what has and is happening in Tasmania. Greens are nearly as bad at spinning and lies as Krudd is.

    • Jane says:

      01:27pm | 04/05/10

      They used ‘climate change’ (AGW manufactured version, not the natural ever changing global cyclical kind) concern that existed previously purely for political purposes and as a way to milk money from it by using people’s guilt…not for genuine environmental concern.
      Dropping the ‘greatest moral challenge of our times” pfft ETS shows they are just shallow and opportunistic to winning ‘populist’ votes….nothing more.

      A vote for Greens is a vote for Labor. Has anyone who votes (Extreme) Greens actually read and understood their positions on OTHER things? The social engineering, the extreme, radical, economically inept focused ‘daydream’ stuff that is totally unworkable? You can’t vote for a party because of one issue that you THINK they seem more credible on. There is a whole lot more to governing a country than fanciful, narrow focused social engineering.

      It’s also not all about Rudd as Labor prefer people focus either. This is LABOR party failure.
      Labor would prefer all blame be attached to Rudd so that when their REAL leader of choive, Red Gillard is installed to replace him all blame is sheeted with him.

      Don’t be fooled. LABOR have failed here..the entity ...not just their token ‘populist’ leader Rudd. The cunningness for Gillard to remain aside, relatively unscathed is so transparent it’s almost sickening….and yet another orchestrated, choreographed Labor con.
      She’s sitting there to assume the position after the election when Labor is either beaten or returned with a reduced majority. I don’t think even Labor would bet on Hulia as a woman to lead just yet.

    • demeter says:

      02:01pm | 04/05/10

      But it true Abbotts work choices will be a blight on the working public of Australia. With the rising of the 12% super it will help aussie families.

      Rudd is also a realist he will only fight the fights that he can win Abbott has stop the ETS and Rudd cannot get it thru. Better bashing you head agaisnt a brick wall. Move on with other policies instead of getting mired down in a policy that Abbott clearly will stop.

      btw Rudd and Swann saved the Australian economy by taking that hard road to spend

    • Adam Diver says:

      02:19pm | 04/05/10

      @ demeter, you are surely laying bait. I am struggling to not have a little nibble. Must resist temptation…so hard to fight…no its not worth the fight. If this is a legitmate comment I am just going to feel pity for you.

    • Greek Snake says:

      04:40pm | 04/05/10

      I’m feel your pain Adam Diver. He can’t be serious can he?

      You did well not to bite…. Maybe it’s sarcasm?

    • Nathan says:

      04:42pm | 04/05/10

      demeter says ‘Rudd and Swann saved the Australian economy by taking that hard road to spend ‘

      The hard road!? It doesn’t take any particular skill to p*ss taxpayer funds down the drain, and throwing money at an economy is going to stimulate it, it is not some massive achievement that only rudd was capable of.

      People who think like demeter also vote ... how scary is THAT?

    • Mark says:

      04:47pm | 04/05/10

      pro tip demeter.

      Do not make suff up when trying to be serious ok.

      Now try again.

      I will give credit, however, for that hilariously funny hard road to spend line. Pure gold.

      You and Christian Real crack me up.

    • Dasher says:

      09:24am | 04/05/10

      If you want to get rid of this government, don’t vote greens. All we’ll get is preferences going to Labor and more of the same. I think there is going to be the world thrown at the electorate now. Just watch, a billion for this and a billion for that. But last time they offered us everything, they delivered nothing. No Fuelwatch, no grocery choices, ETS, no 200+ childcare facilities, no National Broadband Network, no laptops in schools, burnt the surplus, increasing interest rates, rorts in insulation and school schemes, foreign debt, no tax reform. We’ve had a gutfull of the lies and deception. Get rid of these fools but be carful who you vote for!

    • Mark says:

      11:23am | 04/05/10

      Have you ever noticed, that on the ballot paper for the house of representatives (“the government”), you allocate preferences yourself?

    • Jane says:

      01:46pm | 04/05/10

      Mark - Have you ever noticed most superficial, politically inept, naive and ignorant young Greens voters either don’t know that or do it?...they just blindly follow the card.
      A vote for Greens is a vote for Labor - Case closed.

    • John A Neve says:

      08:27pm | 05/05/10

      Jane,
      Have you ever thought that not all voters are as one eyed as you?
      Many do think, and set their preferences as they see fit.

    • Sherlock says:

      09:24am | 04/05/10

      While I agree we need another poll before making any assumptions, I wouldn’t be surprised if the electorate is waking up to our do nothing PM.

      His politically motivated decision to back down on the ETS has only confirmed the spineless tag that people have used since the day he took office.

      You can only deny the obvious for so long

    • joe says:

      09:38am | 04/05/10

      Yeah I don’t think people actually care that much for the ETS - many are very revealed to have dodged that bullet and great new big tax for now. But it is hugely symbolic, and the ETS backflip is the final straw for many in showing that he stands for nothing.

      One minute he said the ETS was the most important issue in our lifetime, then when the polls changed its was “hang on, scratch that - hey look cigarettes!”

    • Mark says:

      10:10am | 04/05/10

      It all goes down to credibility.

      Love them, hate them or whatever with Hawke, Keating and Howard you knew you had a man that would stand by his convictions. All three actually believed in something and you knew where they stood.

      Rudd shows none of that moxy. His own personal decline is now terminal and will only speed up as he cannot change his persona. Another mea culpa is out.

      It will be interesting to see if he implodes or just fades away.

    • Peter says:

      11:33am | 04/05/10

      @ Mark. I have no doubt Kim Beazley would have been 10 times the leader KRudd is… Hawke, Keating and Howard had something about them, this bloke has nothing. Tony Abbott will be much better for our country than this guy, and despite some of the negative stuff we hear about Abbott, this guy actually respects your freedom.. He’ll never try to take it away…

    • persephone says:

      11:36am | 04/05/10

      All three of them, Mark - like all sensible leaders everywhere - backed away from policies that they had previously spruiked.

      Hawke with ‘no child will live in poverty’, Keating with his tax cuts, Howard with his ‘non core’ promises and ‘never ever GST’.

      If you have a good policy idea, and it doesn’t work in practice, it’s sensible to back away from it.

      If you have a good policy but times change and it’s economically unwise to implement it, it’s sensible to back away from it.

      If you have a good policy, and you can’t get it through the Senate, then it’s sensible to say that.

      No politician - no person - has a crystal ball which reliably tells them whether something is going to work or not, whether circumstances are going to change and make something impractical or what problems are going to arise and how these can best be avoided.

      I made a promise a couple of days ago to go up to town (one hour’s drive away) to sort out a problem for my son. Before I left, I made a phone call, and was told that the problem can’t be sorted out until I get a form in the mail, so there’s no point me going up.

      By your logic, I should go up anyway, even though there’s no point and I can’t doing anything, because otherwise I’m breaking a promise to my son and therefore don’t believe in what I’m doing.

      Real life is like that, and so is politics. Things happen which you don’t expect, and makes something you had every intention of doing no longer practical.

    • persephone says:

      11:39am | 04/05/10

      Peter

      Abbott will let you enjoy your freedom, just as long as it doesn’t upset the Pope.

      Good to see him supporting the tax rise on cigarettes for health reasons.

    • Mark says:

      11:57am | 04/05/10

      Grow up persephone and stop the cute analogies.

      Rudd has been found out.

      He is a coward.

      His election “policies” were not followed though. He is a liar.

      He cannot be believed going forward. All he has to show for his first term is the pointless signing of Kyoto, an empty apology to a myth, 4 deaths and a billiondollars in clean up and rectifications in the disaster of the batt scheme, a wasteful BER that has not delivered value for money and broken promises…so many broken promises. A do nothing government.

      He has gone back on everything.

      Just like Garrett said they changed it all up anyway.

      I am embarrassed to have that caricature of a man as my PM.

      And pers stop being a religious bigot. The catholic scare is a tired old bigoted response from people devoid of any sense of rationality. Delude yourself if you must but keep the boards clear of your own personal dislikes for other religions.

      Love the senate reference. Where is the DD now? Coward.

    • Peter says:

      11:58am | 04/05/10

      Unfortunately persephone, people in this country have been brainwashed to believe that by simply walking past a smoker your endangering your life. Just like you said, sometimes politicians have to play politics… Tony Abbott would not have contemplated this tax if he were in power…

      With all these statements people make about Abbott being a chauvinist and a religous zealout, can you point out on thing that he has done in his public life that has led to him being branded these things? Just one? I reckon if Tony Abbott was a devil worshiper, people wouldn’t be giving him such a hard time…

    • luke09 says:

      01:01pm | 04/05/10

      Kevin Rudd is not a leader, he should be replaced. The fact that he won’t publicly comment on the newspoll shows he is a deceitful person who should not be trusted with the job of PM.

    • Dingo says:

      02:00pm | 04/05/10

      All references to Howard’s core and non-core promises should include the fact that this became necessary due to the deceit of Keating in the budget papers.

      There was in fact a $2 billion black hole that was only discovered once Howard took office. That meant some election promises based on the incorrect govt figures had to be shelved. Hence he introduced the Charter of Budget Honesty to prevent future governments pulling the same stunt in an election year.

    • persephone says:

      02:41pm | 04/05/10

      Dingo

      exactly - circumstances changed, so he had to change his program.

      The GFC did exactly the same for Rudd. Add to that a hostile Senate, and that means there’s a heap of stuff you’d like to do that you can’t.

      Politics is about reality.

      Anyone who thinks they can make a promise about something which will happen in two years time (for example) and keep to that regardless doesn’t live in the real world.

    • Dingo says:

      03:44pm | 04/05/10

      persephone, that’s a fair point, however Rudd has not delivered on one core or non-core election commitment, yet he has spent a whole lot of money doing things he didn’t promise, which nobody asked for. Plus he is now trying to do what he emphatically promised he wouldn’t - means test health insurance and increase tax as a % of GDP.

      Rudd has wasted so much money kidding himself he was supporting the economy and now he’s putting at risk the very industry that actually saved Australia from the GFC.

      I can understand why people may have disliked Howard, however I respect and admire his ability to do most of what he said he’d do and do it well. Like Rudd, he shouldn’t have embarked on other big policies he didn’t consult on or previously commit to.

      Whatever you think of Abbott’s personality, he too, is diligent and prudent and knows leaders have to engage and negotiate with people.  I think he will deliver most of whatever he promises.

      Rudd always attempts to railroad others, regularly demanding they get out of the way and in the end delivers nothing.

    • Mark says:

      04:55pm | 04/05/10

      Perfect example of blame game politics by pers in her response to Dingo.

      I love the line about promises. How quaint. How cowardly. How deceitful. How typically Labor.

    • persephone says:

      06:24pm | 04/05/10

      Dingo

      he promised an apology and to sign Kyoto, he delivered. He promised a health reform package which would be taken to the states, he delivered.

      He’s delivered a lot more than that, and if you need me to list them all, I will, but it’s terribly boring to just do huge long lists and to my mind doesn’t prove much anyway - you only seemed to want a few examples.

      Both the means testing of health and the raising of taxes are clearly linked to the need to retire debt and cut government spending, and are thus a clear result of the GFC.

      Howard was actually very good at delivering things he never said he was going to do - in other words, very good at realising that what he had promised was no longer what he wanted to deliver, and delivering something else instead.

      So he wasn’t for a GST, then delivered one; he didn’t want to tighten gun controls, but did; he said he wanted to cut the size of government and government spending, but increased the public service to record numbers and increased middle class welfare dramatically.

      He didn’t take the decision to go to war in Iraq to Parliament, a long time convention, and he didn’t take WorkChoices to an election campaign.

      So I’ll give him marks as a pragmatic decision maker who saw opportunities and grased them, but not for being open, transparent or courageous.

      Abbott is not diligent or prudent; he wouldn’t have to backtrack on his statements so often if he was (so, for example, his statement that the NZ economy didn’t need a stimulus package to keep it going was contradicted almost immediately by the NZ Prime Minister saying he wished that NZ had an economy as sound as Australia’s; he had to run backwards at a great rate from his comment that he felt uncomfortable around homosexuals).

      And he has form when it comes to not delivering promises, as Health Minister having to back away from his ‘rolled gold’ promise on the health safety net.

    • Craig says:

      09:47am | 04/05/10

      The scary part is do we really want Mr 50’s Abbott running the joint? I am a liberal voter and could not bring myself to vote for Abbott. I guess all we can hope for is a leadership spill, but in light of these polls that would seem unlikely.

    • Robert Smissen of God's own country, rural SA says:

      05:07pm | 04/05/10

      The 50s? ? HMMMMMMM, virtually inflation free, you only needed one person to work at one job to support a family, kids got an education, virtually all our food was grown in Australia & processed here too. Our prime minister didn’t get legless in sleazy strip joints. Sounds like a top idea to me. However Mr. Tony Abbott is a man of today & forward thinking, doesn’t swear at or abuse his mainly female staff, is a loving father & husband, passionately cares about & works for everyday Australians, yeah, I can see how you wouldn’t want that, NOT! ! !

    • Eye4anEye says:

      05:15pm | 04/05/10

      I think I’m going to call shenanigans on this one - doubt your a liberal voter

    • Peter says:

      08:42pm | 04/05/10

      As a life long Labour sympathiser, i’m proud of the work Hawke, Keating did for Australia, and a well deserved congratulations to Howard and Costello for their contribution (yes I did vote Howard twice), i am disgusted in this Labour party. Im dead set opposed to AWA’s even though I am on, once you sign that document, you have no right to negotiate with your employer despite what we were told. Abbott must promise not to do this to the people and I assure you the Liberals will win. And Tony Abbott will keep that promise if he makes it to Australians.. Regardless, im voting Abbott anyway, and people who care for this country, should do as well. I can see Turnball being his treasurer (I think Wayne Swann is the only shining light in this Government, but he just has not got much support around the rest of them. Penny Wong is a clever woman as well (in an extremely difficult portfolio). As for the rest of them, they should not be running the country. Abbott as PM and Turnball as Treasurer is a winning ticket. It’s a shame that we don’t have a system of Government were the leader can select the best people in Parliament to form his cabinet regardless of what party they are from.. We’d get better results for the country… but these party games must go on…

    • Fred B Goode says:

      09:52am | 04/05/10

      The public polling reflects the fact that this government is stuck in 80s socialistic posturing while the world has moved on. Superprofits, redistribution and other anti capitalist rehtoric that this government throws around with gay abandon is pretty much irrelavent to todays (relative to the 80s) well off population.

      Someone needs to tell Rudd and his merry gang of Robin Hoods that socialism is an idea whose time has come… and gone.

    • hashtag says:

      09:59am | 04/05/10

      Maybe it was the biggest drop in satisfaction rating in Newspoll’s 20-year history, but don’t forget it was also the longest honeymoon in Australian polling history.
      Four years is a pretty long time to be in front.

    • Mark says:

      10:26am | 04/05/10

      Yes, Hash, we all acknowledge that Krudd’s team put together one of the greatest PR performances we have seen. He got elected on the basis of rhetoric and a wave of emotion, rather than substance. Unfortunately, it generally takes 2-3 years for this to settle down, and people begin to look for substance over form. Unfortunately, now that we have seen the substance of Krudd, it is not pretty.
      My biggest concern is the damage he is doing with his uncontrolled spending to support his dream of being the greatest PM in history (and all the other superlatives his team regularly pull out). I’d prefer a leader who is happy to be unpopular, but implements a clear and intelligent long term plan.

    • AdamC says:

      10:00am | 04/05/10

      It is results like these that make me believe, even for just a moment in time, that Dudd, Dullard, Swansong, W(r)ong and the rest of the chess set will be dumped from office at the next election.

      They won’t , though. While some comments are correct that they will not have the budget firepower to buy themselves back in, but there are other benefits to incumbency. Quite simply, punters will be reluctant to vote a government out after only one term. Whitlam got a second one, let’s recall.

      All credit to Tony Abbott, though, he’s really been doing an extraordinary job!

    • acker says:

      10:05am | 04/05/10

      Peter Beatie was a good salesman, Bob Hawke was a good salesman, John Howard was a good salesman, Tony Abbott isn’t a bad salesman, Kevin Rudd is a terrible salesman….. I’m now sure Howard lost the last election Rudd didn’t win it

    • persephone says:

      11:41am | 04/05/10

      Gees, guys, get your lines together - there’s about half a dozen posts above this one saying that Rudd has been a PR genius who has spun every issue brilliantly.

      Now acker says he’s a poor salesman.

      Which is it? It can’t be both.

    • Mark says:

      12:45pm | 04/05/10

      Yes he can and so he is. Like Carr he just attempts to manage the news cycle. Unlike Carr he is too stupid to see the end of the road.

      Backed by a complicit msm he got away with lies for years. Now that he is under actually scrutiny everyone can see him for what he is.

      Look at all the cheer squad of the ETS and (lol) Climate Change that were on the bandwagon saying go go go and that the Libs would be wiped out if they didn’t support it.

      Where is Gratton, Taylor, kelly etc etc now?

      http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/now_the_media_should_ask_why_it_too_backed_this_policy_dodo/

      I love the before and after quotes. Easy to be a PR genius when you can get away with lies.

      Get the point pers? He has been found out and exposed. His spin doesn’t fly. He has lost credibility with the electorate.

      Once that happens you have a dead man walking. The majority do not believe him any more. And it will only get worse.

      Cannot wait for Julias little committee to report. And for her own report to see the light of day. The BER will be a gift that keeps on giving this election for the Libs.

    • Stephanie says:

      02:16pm | 04/05/10

      Howards only lost the election because he told everybody that he would not serve full term and everyone got scared that Peter Costello was going to be our next PM… Granted people didn’t like his personality as he was way too outspoken and sarcastic, but we would have been much better off under Liberals for yet another term…

    • Jon says:

      10:09am | 04/05/10

      We shall see…  much as I hate to see the bubble burst,  realistically the likelihood of Tony Abbott ever reaching the lodge is so remote as to be negligible. You can project whatever predictable wishful thinking you like onto this poll (“last straw” “finally seeing through” “stands for nothing”) but the Libs will be occupying those opposition benches for quite a number of years yet, and after this loss, well then it will get ugly.

    • HB says:

      10:09am | 04/05/10

      “Give em enough rope”.. Finally, hopefully it is starting to tighten. He will now draw it out as long as he possibly can for the next election. Will be interesting when parliment resumes a lot has happened since the last sitting. I wonder how smug and cocky Krudd will be now??

    • Tails says:

      10:11am | 04/05/10

      Where’s Perse?

    • PerseIsGone says:

      10:25am | 04/05/10

      Tails, my thoughts exactly.

    • Macca says:

      10:58am | 04/05/10

      And T. Chong?

    • persephone says:

      11:11am | 04/05/10

      Oh, I’m here.

      Just enjoying you all venting.

      This poll isn’t a worry.

      Most governments in the past decade have been behind in the polls for the majority of time leading up to an election. This government’s broken records by leading in the polls for so long.

      And the poll doesn’t have much good news for Abbott - most people who changed their vote went to ‘Other’ rather than ‘Liberal’.

      And the whole purpose of the last fortnight, from the government’s point of view, has been to get out as many of the nasties as possible so that the election campaign proper can focus on all the nice things.

      So, nah, not a worry.

      But nice to know you all missed me.

    • Hamish says:

      11:30am | 04/05/10

      Unfortunately I think you’re right Perse, but the scale of this government’s incompetence is pretty unprecedented (at least in my lifetime) and the length of its honeymoon period was also quite unusual (considering how deplorable they are).

      Personally I think Labor will scrape home on Watermelon preferences with a very reduced majority. Rudd will get stabbed in the back in classic Labor tradition and Combet will probably be the smokey to become next PM. Gillard’s damaged goods now.

      There might still be hope though. If Labor don’t significantly improve their performance they could actually be in real trouble. Even Rudd’s fellow-travellers in the meeja are fed-up with him now which is also pretty unprecedented for a first-term Labor government both at state and federal level. It’s taken the Victorian media 10 years to get tough on the clowns we have down here.

    • Mark says:

      11:36am | 04/05/10

      I didn’t miss her.

      And interesting to see even the master spinner is a bit worried. No excuses this time just some waffle.

      Hmmmm. Funny that.

    • Luke says:

      11:37am | 04/05/10

      persephone - I have to mention, Kevin Rudd’s personal satisfaction rating has dropped the most in the shortest time in the 20 year history of Newspoll survey. I know your into detail and statistics, so there’s another one for you.

    • slugger says:

      11:46am | 04/05/10

      the question is persephone why did a huge amount of people change thier vote,and why wont labor supporters stand up for those who are bieng punitavly taxed.or is the labor party now against the working class

    • persephone says:

      11:55am | 04/05/10

      OK - and being into polls and statistics means that I’m not worried about this one.

      Firstly, there have only been four occasions since 1990 where the ALP vote has moved by 8 points or more in a single poll. In each case, the poll was either a one off (statistically speaking, you’re going to get an inaccuate result occasionally) or came after a ‘one off’ in the other direction.

      So this suggests the movement in the poll is a statistical blip rather than a ‘real’ shift.

      Secondly, no other poll is showing a similar movement - Labor has certainly taken a hit, with both Essential and Morgan showing a shift in the vote, but it’s a matter of a couple of percentage points, nowhere near as dramatic as this poll is suggesting.

      Thirdly, the man who runs newspoll has expressed caution about the result, saying that it could well be an outlier. If the guy who owns the joint thinks it might be dodgy, then the poll can’t be taken totally seriously either.

      That said, I was expecting a bad poll, because Labor has been busy jettisoning the heavy cargo.

      Result? The media is no longer talking about boat people. It has already forgotten about the rise in tobacco taxes (and so will smokers, given a month of paying the new prices) and will very quickly forget about the mining tax.

      In the months leading up to the election, we’ll get the report saying how terrific Julia’s handling of the BER has been and what an overwhelming success the program will be, which will lay that one to bed very nicely.

      And a whole heap of good things out of the budget. Haven’t heard much discussion about the cut to small business taxes from anyone, so assume that that is welcome news. The rise in super seems to be welcome, too.

      And the budget will generate a whole swathe of good news stories like that.

      Meanwhile, I have full confidence that Abbott won’t deliver anywhere near the range of policies you guys think he will (he can’t, there’s nooone on his side doing any work) and those he does produce will go down like a lead balloon.

      He’s a convinction politician, after all. We all know the issues that are important to him, and they’re a total turn off for the general electorate.

    • Luke says:

      12:17pm | 04/05/10

      What are Rudds policy’s? Hello, didn’t he just about throw all of them in the trash? How on earth is he going to be able to sell anything now that the Australian voter seems to be waking up to his failure on delivering promises? His words are hollow and they are all about him and his polls, not for the betterment of the country. It will be excruciating to watch him selling any policy during the election campaign.

    • Hamish says:

      12:23pm | 04/05/10

      Yes Perse, the extent of Labor’s fall probably is a blip, but the trend for them has been negative. The real story is Rudd’s personal approval which might be over-estimated by the poll, but a fall that large must represent at least some dissatisfaction in the electorate.

      Rudd is on the nose. Labor will probably still win the next election, but the real fun will start after that. Who’s your tip for next leader of the Labor Party?

    • slugger says:

      12:25pm | 04/05/10

      make no mistake peres smokers will not forget in a couple of weeks as everytime we buy a packet we are reminded of the mongrels who inflicted this outrageous imjpost on working class people who are already being robbed blind

    • Mark says:

      12:59pm | 04/05/10

      Notice how pers has admitted that the government has done all it has for political expediency and not the good of the country? Not for policy conviction just for expediency.

      All spin and lies is pers just like Rudd. Good little staffer pers, have a cookie.

      I especially like the part where pers “knows” the outcome of the $14 million enquiry into the BER debacle.

      So pers which is it. A $14 million waste of money or are you accusing the gentleman in charge of being Labors man, not independent or persuadable? To know the findings now mean you believe it is a whitewash.

    • AdamC says:

      01:03pm | 04/05/10

      Is someone running a book on who will knife Dudd and take over as PM/Labor leader if/when things go wrong?

      I see some like Combet; I don’t, unless Kruddy hangs around for a while. Combet is too new. In any event, Shorten would give Combet a run for his money if it came to it.

      Dullard is not an option, and not just because of the BER debacle. Nobody ever seems to notice that her biggest fans are Coalition supporters - she is less likely to win an election than other possible ALP leaders. It may not be fair, but she has her singleness, boorish accent and gender to overcome. Wayne Swan, for example, has none of these problems.

      Which is why he would be my pick. He also has the benefit of being treasurer, i.e, the number 2 in the government. The fact they didn’t give ‘deputy leader’ Gillard the keys to the safe suggests to me that the non-left components of the ALP machine don’t really rate her. 

      What odds are they offering on Swansong?

    • Hamish says:

      01:49pm | 04/05/10

      Good points AdamC, especially on Gillard. I think she has other problems as well. She can’t be that popular with the AEU.

      Surely Swann can’t get it. He looks out-of-his-depth all the time. For a treasurer he’s also pretty invisible - nothing like the profile Costello had. Nothing like the talent either. My thinking is that both Gillard and Swann are tainted by their proximity to Rudd, especially Swann as they’re both from vote early, vote often Qld Labor. Shorten’s a good pick, he’s enjoyed a boy-most-likely rise up the ranks. Combet seems more assured though.

      What about the Wong-bot? First ever Asian and first ever Lesbian PM…not to mention first ever woman. Could be a juicy one at odds. Pity she’s not in the Greens or she’d already be leader.

    • Elphaba says:

      01:55pm | 04/05/10

      Awww Mark, come on!  You didn’t miss Perse?  You’re jumping at the chance to shoot her down in flames every time she writes a response!

      Not to say I don’t find it entertaining… but it would have been a bit of a boring day for you if she wasn’t here…

    • demeter says:

      02:06pm | 04/05/10

      to right Abbotts got nothing in this poll as most people still dont want to vote for him. It means that they will vote for the Greens which is a vote for Labor anyway. I can see a few lost seat but Senate gains. Hopefully then the Australian public can see the real change that we are all desiring.

    • Peter says:

      10:13am | 04/05/10

      Should have known this Government would stink on the morning after it won the election… Rudd was walking around with a bee in his bonnet about Alcopops. Wow, inspiring stuff, and look at what it’s done to stop teenage drinking.. Now kids just drink their own strong mixes that burn the liver on the way through their bodies… KRudd just wants to control peoples lives. He has no respect for peoples freedoms as is evident with his first “big ticket item” Alcopops and now taxing away people financial independance with this tobacco hike. I am going to make it my mission to remind every smoker I know that KRUDD will raise these smoke to $20 over the next to years and to boot him out, regardless of whatever handouts he dreams up in his next budget…

    • Jonathan Appleyard says:

      10:18am | 04/05/10

      Rudd Labor is based on the failed state ALP model of Carr, Beattie and to a lesser extent Bracks - governing by press release and announcements geared around the 24 hour media cycle.

      The public are awake to the spin which dominates everything they do.

      They also have no economic credibility and the old Labor way of high taxing / high spending is back for all to see.

    • Bemused says:

      10:19am | 04/05/10

      Tough decisions like taxing smokers!!! yeah, that’s an incredibly bold, unpopular move. Brave stuff Kev

    • Peter says:

      10:32am | 04/05/10

      I love it how this bloke tries to act “tough”. Pick on smokers.. He can’t get any meaningful legislation throug the senate, he can’t do anything.. He couldn’t even handle pink bats…

    • slugger says:

      11:29am | 04/05/10

      unpopular move is an understatement,there are more than 3 million of us and most used to vote labour,.notice i said used to vote labour.

    • Peter says:

      12:10pm | 04/05/10

      @ Slugger and Bemused, join me in convincing smokers to boot this bloke out. We might be only 20% of the population, but 20% easily changes Governments… Then they might learn to stop this hateful and vindictive campaign against people who are doing nothing to them… I reckon this time the Government have pushed smokers too far…..

    • Freeman says:

      10:20am | 04/05/10

      after the long list of failures, backflips and economic f@#$ ups I’m finding it difficult to beleive that almost half of Australia still support Labor!? I think that
      Rudd has dumped all his bad policies and reversed failed policies all at once to get the bad news out of the way and was prepared for this poll to be perhaps the worst one before the election. he still has some moves up his sleeve that may get him over the line.

    • persephone says:

      12:06pm | 04/05/10

      Shows you how on the nose Howard was, doesn’t it?

      Seriously, though, how can 50% of Australians contemplate voting for an Opposition which has gone through so many leaders, already dumped policies (heard anything about the cut in petrol excise recently? the one which supposedly won them the Gippsland by election and so could not be abandoned, or they’d have won that election on a lie?), can’t stick to the same line for more than 24 hours and has such a dearth of talent on their front bench?

      These things will also become clearer closer to the election. There won’t be many policies, because there have been too many shifts in portfolios, meaning there hasn’t been time for Shadows to do the work, and too many of the Shadows are too lazy to develop policies anyway.

      Oh, and more exposure of Abbott to audiences is always a big plus for the government, so the debates will help as well.

    • luke09 says:

      12:22pm | 04/05/10

      persephone, you are right about things becoming clearer as the next election gets closer. It will be interesting to see if this anti ALP/Rudd poll has any momentum. If it holds up in one month time labor and their supporters will be certainly be worried, it is a big if though.

    • Mark says:

      01:55pm | 04/05/10

      See pers playing blame game politics.

      Nothing there but rants against “stuff”.

      Labor is rattled to the core. The faithful are nervous. The politics is beginning.

      ahrd to get away with lies when people actuallyfocus on what you are doing and question it.

      So lets recap policies for Labor.

      Immigration & boat people - no policy, let her rip fill up Xmas Isd cool -

      Childcare - none abandoned

      Batt Industry - $1 billion in clean ups - recent promises to the industry dumped, can’t say sorry for deaths.

      Aborigines - well we said sorry - errr nothing left, no movement no action

      Health takeover - full capitulation to the states, increased bureaucracy, no change in the running complete backflip

      BER - massive evidence of rorting and a lack of management to ensure value for money

      Environment - HAHAHAHAHAHAAHA

      Taxation and Finance - overstimulate the econmy wastefully to ensure interest rates rises. Blow the budget out = tax rises.

      Iran to the international court - lie

      Whalers to same - liars

      “Watch” sites - lawl

      Internet Filter - snicker

      Oh here is a fuller list courtesy of Piers.

      Included in those are the promised Commonwealth takeover of public hospitals, GroceryChoice, FuelWatch, the delivery of the ETS, prudent government spending, uncapped IVF treatment, no Budget deficits, simplified GST paperwork for small business, GP Super Clinics, health services for military families, providing for the homeless, taking a hard line on terrorism, taking a hard line on immigration, ensuring private health insurance rebates remain unchanged, reining in corporate salaries, the bank deposit guarantee, responding to the 2020 summit, ensuring no worker will be worse off, building a broadband network, restricting employee share schemes, living in Kirribilli House, appointment of a Special Envoy on Whaling, being an economic conservative, taking Japan to the International Court of Justice over whaling, reining in the costs of consultancies, promising the ASC it would build submarines in South Australia, keeping detention centres in the hands of private operators, increasing indexation of public service and defence personnel pensions, funding to the Exclusive Brethren, establishing a Department of Homeland Security, means testing the Baby Bonus, introducing a compulsory student union fee, ISP filtering, flow-through share schemes, reducing energy and water consumption by Commonwealth Departments, reporting to Parliament on Closing the Gap measures, building indigenous housing, no changes to superannuation, providing computers to school pupils, building 260 childcare centres to end the “double drop-off” and permitting an Independent Election Debate Commission.


      Awesome stuff pers. Real policies in action.

      Hahahahahahaha

    • Peter says:

      03:02pm | 04/05/10

      @ Mark, exactly. This country is filled with political party barrackers, not people who know anything about administrating a country. KRudd can kill some labour party supporters grand mother and they’ll still vote him… It’s all about barracking, not about what’s best for the country…

    • Randal says:

      03:11pm | 04/05/10

      Support for the ALP is not half, their primary support according to the News poll is now down to 35% and shrinking, the Libs are at 43% and the 51-49 figure is after preferences.

      Rudd is in enormous trouble, and he knows it, hence the panicking announcements that just continue to back fire.

      The community is awake to Rudd, that what he says he does not mean, lacks political will and courage and will swing on any issue if he senses votes lost.

      He has pinned his hope on health, but the ETS backflip means he is not trusted and that had seen the ALP actually lose 3 pts on the better to manage health question, whilst the Coalition has risen 2.

      Its now panic stations and we can expect an election sooner rather than later as Rudd will try and head to the polls before his support falls to terminal levels.

      In my view he has already left it too late and should have taken the DD on the ETS, he would have walked it in - now with back flip’s, broken promises, incompetent administration and rorts it is like watching a team 5-0 up in injury time score own goal after own goal.

      One thing can said for certain, should Rudd lose, it would be one of the greatest (and best deserved) defeats we have seen in our political history.

    • Henry says:

      10:33am | 04/05/10

      Diagnosis:  Australia has a parasitic worm infection known as ‘Laborus Diseasus’, as well as the mental condition bludgitis - a condition where the patient has an irrational addiction to government welfare which causes wastage and results eventually in a permanent chip on one shoulder.

    • workinman says:

      10:38am | 04/05/10

      If anything will take Kevin down its the smokers!! I am Labor voter , I have voted Labor all my voting life I am 57 years old.  I am so peed at the moment about this smoking tax,I doubt very much I will be voting for Labor. I am in a real pickle here , I don’t like Abbott at all. I think the Greens are a disapointment and I have no idea if we even have an Independent candidate!! I don’t know how they know 3 million Australians smoke, but I suspect its alot more than that. I am in the union have been all my working life and I work in the Industries, every second Boily I run into is a smoker. Try spending all day under a welding helmet!! The fumes we breath would have to be more deadly than cigarette smoke. I don’t see anyone running into save us from that. I know alot who come here are kids but if your in the trade post, I will come and check it out later

    • buzz says:

      11:26am | 04/05/10

      its a big sleeper issue the press will not run to hard on this issue because tony will take this tax as well
      i like you have voted labor all my life that has ended
      the USA sends the world into melt down labor stimulates the economy then takes 5 billion extra tax of smokers to pay
      for it dresses it up as a heath policy
      SPIN ME ANOTHER ONE KEV

    • Peter says:

      12:17pm | 04/05/10

      @ workinman, we know alot of smokers, lets politic ourselves and convince people to throw him out on the back of this. That will teach the Government to stop picking on these people. 20% is a very strong voter block that can change a Government with a blink of an eye.. Don’t be decieved by any handouts KRudd hands out in the budget, his next 2 tobacco hikes in 2 years will pay for whatever he might promise… He’s like Hobin Rood, takes from the poor to give to the rich… And here i was, always deluding myself that Labour was about looking after the little guy.. What a joke!!

    • Larson says:

      12:33pm | 04/05/10

      Yo mate I am an interstate truckie I have only ever voted Labor and about the same age as you. We have a long haul and smoking helps me keep awake. I won’t vote for Abbott but I won’t vote for Labor either after this. If worse comes to worse I will chuck in a donkey vote. I took the wife out for a night out when Labor won but I feel like I want a refund now. Seems like they targeted their core voters.

    • The Real Persephone says:

      10:50am | 04/05/10

      Rudd quite simply must be removed and I would be sure that moves are afoot to set this in train now.

      The ALP will lose the election with Rudd as leader and will still probably lose with a new leader.

      We are yet to hear of all the scandals that this Govt is sitting on…

    • luke09 says:

      11:40am | 04/05/10

      Finally persephone, you have taken your ALP blinkers off and can see the facts.  grin

    • persephone says:

      12:02pm | 04/05/10

      ‘Taint me.

      Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

    • Freeman says:

      04:08pm | 04/05/10

      “Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery”
      yeah, just ask Sarah Palin

    • Freeman says:

      04:08pm | 04/05/10

      “Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery”
      yeah, just ask Sarah Palin

    • watty says:

      10:56am | 04/05/10

      “No matter how worthy or necessary his policy choices, Rudd must hack through a thicket of suspicion before he can convince a substantial proportion of the electorate that his intentions are straightforward”

      Is Malcolm Farr serious?  “Worthy or necessary”? Paying Indonesia to incarcerate immigrants? Wasting hundreds of $millions on Kyoto and Copenhagen? Increasing taxation on the industry that created the “Australian mining boom”  keeping Australia afloat whilst others sank?

      Worthy? Necessary? Surely Mr.Far is jesting?

    • Ryan says:

      11:02am | 04/05/10

      Well done Tony, stick it to these clowns!

    • Angie says:

      11:05am | 04/05/10

      Abbott is great and the team is strong ........I am happy today because Australia is waking up to this complete chameleon of a PM and hopefully we can get the country back on track….....all these hair-brained schemes…..Insulation, BER, mining tax ? cancel it…..lets get Australia working, cut some taxes and get all this debt off the budget.

    • persephone says:

      12:17pm | 04/05/10

      Er…how are you going to cut taxes and get rid of debt?

      I really really really would be interested in knowing.

    • Andrew says:

      12:47pm | 04/05/10

      Maybe he won’t waste $8 of the $16 billion BER money on overspending, maybe they won’t waste $1b+ on dodgy insulation, maybe they won’t fly 114 people half way round the world to a talk fest (‘please please won’t someone think of the children”), maybe it won’t be the most wasteful, spineless, populist, socialist government in the history of Australia.

    • Jonathan Appleyard says:

      01:01pm | 04/05/10

      @persephone You cut taxes to get economy moving, give business the right environment to employ people and get government out of the daily lives of people. All core liberal values.

      All we get from Rudd is high spending and higher taxes to pay for it all.

    • Mark says:

      01:59pm | 04/05/10

      Oh gawd pers.

      You really are not that smart. People are giving you way too much credit.

      There are two sides to the budget. Revenue is one.

      The other one starts with E.

      Go look it up. You want us to believe you “study” everything else. Go work it out.

    • persephone says:

      02:51pm | 04/05/10

      Whether you approve of what has been done with stimulus spending or not, my point is that the debt will still be there.

      So to cut debt Abbott either has to drastically cut government services or raise taxes.

      So far there has been nothing to show he is prepared to do either.

      His plan on climate change spends more money than the government’s, and puts the burden of this onto the ordinary taxpayer.

      His parental leave plan raises taxes.

      He has committed to spending more money on health, by creating local boards and providing 2500 more beds.

      He has ruled out a host of savings measures, such as the cut to the private health rebate - thus adding to government debt.

      So my question is still valid: how is Abbott going to deliver lower taxes, when he has shown no signs of wanting to do so? How he is going to cut debt?

      If he is going to cut government expenditure - not in the past, Andrew, but in the future - how is he going to do this?

      These are really important questions.

    • Mark says:

      03:20pm | 04/05/10

      Which will all be revealed in the election campaign pers.

      Just imagine if the had to enunciate them early Labor might grab them and call them their own policies…..nah that would never happen would it.

      Or god forbid imagine having to announce stuff before the budget is handed down in the election year. Imagine that. Actually waiting to see the extent of the problem before showing people how they would fix it might make sense I guess. Yes lets do that.

      I mean the Labor party would never commit to spending, and I am just spittballing here, something like $43 billion dollars on, oh I don’t know, a NBN that was uncosted, had no cost benefit analysis done and was not able to make a commercial return for, well, ever probably. That would be irresponsible.

      And then getting up and spruiking the investment as great in front of the cameras, pimping it to mum and dads saying go get a piece, without a prospectus, well they wouldn’t want to do that type of stuff.

      Oh gosh they did

      http://www.smh.com.au/national/mums-and-dads-to-fund-rudds-broadband-revolution-20090407-9zl8.html

      Hmmm isn’t spruiking investments without a prospectus against the law? Oh never mind Labor would not do that would they?

      So I am sure you can understand and forgive Tony for being a bit cautious here given he should be a bit financially responsible.

      How refreshing would it be if after the election the winner actually implemented some of it’s policies? That would be awesome too. May as well make sure they can be done.

      Hope that clears a few things up for you pers on the “delay”. I would hate to see the Libs, you know, back flip and dump policy in a panic. That wouldn’t look courageous would it. It wouldn’t really show conviction politics. Might be considered cynical and cowardly. Might show you up as standing for nothing and being just a slave to media cycle and spin.

      See what I am getting at dear?

    • persephone says:

      03:40pm | 04/05/10

      No, but then I rarely can be bothered.

      Although if you do really believe that Abbott is likely to deliver his promises, you’ve obviously forgotten what happened to his ‘rolled gold guarantee on health’ a few elections ago.

    • Randal says:

      03:56pm | 04/05/10

      Relax Pers as all will be revealed, to quote a man you admire, in ‘due season’.

      Plus there is plenty to take cash back from, Stage 3 of the BER, the ridiculous NBN program, to name but two, why that’s about 50 billion right there, and estimates that with Costello type fiscal management all government debt can be wiped out by 2013/14 due to the continuing resources boom - without the need for a tax that may well kill it.

      So once the budget is made avaliable, then decisions will be made on final costings and all policies will be avaliable to the Australian people, well in the words of your hero, “in the fullness of time’...

      So sit back, relax and enjoy the ALP implosion (God knows I am) and after that whatever policies put forward by Abbott will by comparison be a god send to the people of Australia. Tax cut or no tax cut!

    • Mark says:

      04:52pm | 04/05/10

      Oh dear pers you appear to be at a loss today.

      Things down at HQ a bit frantic lawl.

    • Ryan says:

      05:39pm | 04/05/10

      @persephone : “play the ball not the man”, continuously attacking Tony is dirty politics at best and shows just how terrified you Labor people are. Perhaps stick to actually delivering and keeping your “eye on the ball” and the voters will happily support you.
      Also complaining every post that Tony hasn’t released any policies for Labor to steal is showing just how desperate you are for some policies of substance, here is an idea, come up with some of your own this time instead of stealing them all like the last time around and perhaps we the voters will start to support you lot. I for one would be ready to support any party that shows some class for a change and focuses on what we the public pay you lot to do, work in the interests of the country instead of your own. That’s the change people want from your party, there I helped you with a new policy, “working for the people with integrity rather than our history of blaming everyone else and attacking everyone else for our own failings”. Whatever happened to “the buck stops with me”, at present it looks like Labor has returned to “the buck stops over there somewhere and I am not to blame, really, it had to be someone else s fault”.

    • Christian Real says:

      03:13pm | 05/05/10

      Mark,
      How can Labor steal Abbott’s policies, when Abbott hasn’t got any policies in the first place?
      Abbott showed most people how thick he was, when he turned up to a Health debate with Kevin Rudd, and he never even had a Health policy to put forward .
      Typical Abbott, no policies, no ideas and certainly no direction.

    • nic says:

      11:14am | 04/05/10

      The media, in particular, the Canberra press gallery,  have been complicit in puffing Rudd up to be larger than reality and in giving him a free ride. A case in point, when Brendan Nelson advocated a wait and see policy as regards an ETS he was crucified, especially by the media. All that has changed is that the public have woken up, much to to the chagrin of many journos who want ABL (Anyone But Liberal) no matter how incompetant the person may be.

    • Shane says:

      11:14am | 04/05/10

      I usually vote either Labor or Green (Yes, I know preferences go to Labor). I have never really liked Rudd, but after 12 years of Howard I was willing to give him a go. I feel he has been a bit of a let down, but I also feel that in general the media (news ltd) have been generally quite bias in their reporting against him. I no longer read news ltd pieces (though George Megalogenis is fantastic, and fair).
      I will be voting Green next election. I’ll never vote for Abbott, as I find his brand of obstructive politics crass, opportunistic, and completely at odds with the spirit of the religion he porports to adhere to so strongly. Acting like a thug , and then explaining it away with “I never said I was perfect” isn’t good enough. A Christian is supposed to try and improve themselves are they not? Acknowledging person failings and then doing nothing to change them smacks of the crafted public image label he so readily throws at Rudd. The Poll means nothing. Rudd’s about as deep as the Murry-Darling Estuary, and Abbotts about as genuine as a Rolex from China.

    • Avid LISTENER says:

      12:21pm | 04/05/10

      What a load of ......it is funny you know Green voters have a strange mentality. I really like it when the likes of the above comment,  in saying the media is against them.  Do you believe everything you read?,  listen to interviews or watch Parliment on ABC, hear it from the horses mouth and then make a judgement.  Very often a lot different from what you read in ANY paper.

    • Shane says:

      12:49pm | 04/05/10

      No, I don’t believe everything I read. In fact, I very rarely believe anything I read. The problem with “hearing it straight from the horses mouth” is that everything said, yes even on the “holly ground of parliament”, is tailored specifically for public consumption. If you believe what you’re hearing in interviews or parliament is more then just regurgitated talking points, then you’re as “funny” as you have generalised all Green voters to be. Doesn’t really matter though I guess. I have my opinion, you have yours, neither of us will change our mind, and most importantly of all, I couldn’t care less what you think beyond the amusement I feel at your comments.

    • Lilith says:

      03:02pm | 04/05/10

      I defiantly will not vote for Abbott and yes I agree with you, Abbott has no policy, changes his mind at the drop of a hat, hes totally untrustworthy

    • Mark says:

      04:42pm | 04/05/10

      Lol.

      So who will you vote for Lilith.

      Rudd has jettisoned all policy, he has none. Intereesting point about being trusted. If you cannot trust him to legislate the ETS to save us from the “greatest moral challenge of our times” what can you trust him on? Oh I see that point on changing your mind too and how that is bad. Like the child care centre program abandonment?

      So Lilith? Who for you. Seems Rudd fails your tests as well.

    • FredBsad says:

      12:04am | 05/05/10

      Well said Shane - Rudd destroyed my belief in his values and integrity when he joined Miste Rabbit in the fear campaign to stop the boats - code for obstructing asylum seekers from persecuted ethnic minorities crossing our border, which is their right in international law and punishing instead of protecting them with loss of their freedom detention and no end date to their detention. How foul is that. And Abbot would turn boats/asylum seekers back to danger , and restore the evil Temporary Protection Visas for refugees. These guys turn me off Christianity altogether. Hypocritical , cynical, cruel political animals. Do we really have the politicians we deserve?

    • Oz Ocker says:

      11:14am | 04/05/10

      How much longer will non-core promise KRudd be in The Lodge? Certainly there must be moves afoot to install Julia.
      Under KRudd the ALP has wasted this term—what have they done except U-Turns? The only thing Rudd stands for is doing anything to cling to office.
      With the greatest reluctance I have to say Holy Tony now does have a chance to win.

    • bruce westcott says:

      12:18pm | 04/05/10

      are people thinking of voting for the greens because they don,t like either rudd or abbott.?

    • Electoral Systems Aussie says:

      12:31pm | 04/05/10

      I have found that quite a few people here have said they will be voting for Greens in the next election. This won’t work for several reasons.
      -The Australian Government is formed by the majority party in the House of Representatives. The HoR uses a full-prefferential-instant run-off voting system that requires a candidate recieve 50% +1 of all the votes to be elected. If after all the primary votes are counted there is no candidate with 50%+1, the primary votes of the person who recieved the *lowest* number of votes are redistributed according to the second preferences of those votes (i.e. who the voters put as number 2 on the ballot sheet).
      -This system is acknowledged worlwide to result in a huge bias towards the two major parties and it is almost impossible for a minor party to recieve a seat in the Lower House.
      -It is much more realistic for the minor parties to run in the Senate, where they only need about 12% of the primary vote to gain a seat, rather than 50%+1.
      In the Lower House, a protest vote for the smaller parties will 99.999% of the time be redistributed according to your second preference, which in most cases is Labor from the Greens voters. The Greens do not stand a realistic chance of winning a federal HoR seat anywhere except in maybe Tasmania.
      - The Greens won’t win a seat in most places, and your protest vote goes back to Labor, who you are protesting about. It’s not worthwhile. Either vote for Liberal/National or Labor. Yes we know about the symbolic arguments that you want them to know you only support the major party second. But look at the reality. They will get the vote anyway, so why waste the vote counters time?

    • PTom says:

      02:23pm | 04/05/10

      Yes according to your preferences

      So why are place like Thailand and the UK talking about election reform talk of Australia as a good system.

      Yet indepenant have been voted into the lower house in past. Which two had the majority at Federation? none. The Two Large party now has taken a century to develop.

      Greens one a lower house in WA State and have come close on win a Federal seat.

    • Andrew says:

      12:32pm | 04/05/10

      The Canberra Press gallery is falling out of love with Rudd and the wider press is starting to smell panic. The sharks are circling, won’t be long now and there’ll be blood in the water.

      Odds for next labor leader:

      2-1 Combet
      5-1 Gillard (20-1 if the BER Auditor Generals report leaks)

      See ya Kev. The labor party doesn’t have a tradition of hanging on to dead wood, particularly if it doesn’t belong to a faction. And apparently, they make no apology for that.

    • JA says:

      01:02pm | 04/05/10

      I understand that report is being released tomorrow. Gillard’s reputation as Labor’s star will be well and truly tainted

    • Shifter says:

      12:45pm | 04/05/10

      “...the two-party preferred support for Labor has dropped to 49 per cent while the Coalition’s has risen from 46 per cent 51 per cent”

      Really? So if one of two things if 49%, the other is 51%?

      Shanahan is a genius!

    • Saskia says:

      12:53pm | 04/05/10

      All ‘Green votes’ should be added onto the ALP numbers.  At least 50% of Green ‘voters’ are hardcore ALP voters that don’t have the guts to admit they vote Labor.  I don’t blame them!  Its just sad that some people are so blinkered, bigoted and just plain dumb that they cannot defy their bigotry and vote for the superior party against the wishes of their uneducated parents and peers.

      For what it is worth Rudd is dead in the water in both WA and SA…

    • demeter says:

      12:53pm | 04/05/10

      Kevin Rudd is still widely popular and it will take more than the a couple of bad poles to remove him.  Rudd is deemed as a talker a good one at that but nto much else. He needs top lose this tag so we are all hoping that health take over will get some runs on the board. The tax change is ok but it will soon be forgotten once people have to pay for the higher interest rates. People are still unsure of Abbott the should focus on Abbott as an extremist, a lose cannon, religious wacko. Hit them on a personal level not political

    • Hamish says:

      01:16pm | 04/05/10

      Demeter,

      Is this a parody of Persephone or do all blinkered and parochial lefties use obscure greek gods for their name?

    • Mark says:

      01:43pm | 04/05/10

      @ Hamish - apparently all the cool kids use them.

      @ demeter - thank you for again reinforcing pers points that Rudd has to shift to being a clever and sneaky politician to win the next election. You know, play blame game politics.

      I also applaud you for the backing of pers xenophobic hatred of the pope which I guess extends to all other religions apart from hers.

      That’s the way to go get them. Bugger policy, Labor just reneges on them anyway.

      Go get ‘em the old fashioned way!!

    • Jack says:

      01:45pm | 04/05/10

      very apt choice using greek gods given their fiscal position, something to look forward to if Rudd and his socialist mates get another term…....people will want to move to NZ

    • Ben81 says:

      01:49pm | 04/05/10

      “should focus on Abbott as an extremist, a lose cannon, religious wacko.  Hit them on a personal level not political “

      Don’t worry dementer, that’s already the reason a good proportion of slack jawed imbeciles are going to use to justify their vote.  They’re a lost cause, and I don’t think it’s good for anyone to want to add more to their numbers.

    • demeter says:

      02:38pm | 04/05/10

      Well it not like Abbott has a policy to attack…....

      Papists and neo consevatives will have to do ....

      Rudd and Abbott… one of them is consructive the other is trying to be deconstructive..

      We all know Rudd back in a September….

    • Dionysus (what can I say I like to party) says:

      02:53pm | 04/05/10

      Demeter,

      Why do you think it’s okay to be prejudiced against Catholics, but not, say, Africans? I’m actually really interested how lefties can on the one hand cry incessantly about discrimination and then just be blatantly bigoted towards Christians? Is it just a cognitive dissonance thing, or do you actually have some rational basis for your religious paranoia?

      PS - thanks for the tip Mark.

    • persephone says:

      03:22pm | 04/05/10

      No xenophobic hatred of anyone, Mark, just saying it how it is. It isn’t hating the Pope to point out that Abbott follows what he says.

      That said, I’m not at all religious, but I do believe everyone has the right to believe what they want, as long as they don’t try and impose their beliefs on others.

      So my objection is not to religion, or religious people, but to those who think their beliefs give them a right to interfere in my life.

      Which, btw, makes me more tolerant than them.

    • Stephanie says:

      03:43pm | 04/05/10

      So Persephone… you say “So my objection is not to religion, or religious people, but to those who think their beliefs give them a right to interfere in my life.”

      But does this belief only fall upon religion? Because Rudd’s interfering in smokers lives because he thinks his beliefs on smoking is warranted… correct?

    • Hamish says:

      04:20pm | 04/05/10

      Stephanie,

      Don’t you understand it’s okay to force your political views onto other people. It’s only religious views that are a no-no.

      I mean, it’s not that I have a problem with Persephone’s views, it’s just that I have a problem with her commenting on websites about those views and trying to convince everyone they’re good views. That’s just not on.

      That makes me totally more tolerant than her, btw…

      Like, I’m not anti-Catholic, I just don’t think Catholics should become politicians…or…like…actually be Catholics at all.

    • Mark says:

      04:23pm | 04/05/10

      keep digging your own hole pers. Small minded indeed.

      With a dislike of interference you should really have a look at the Libs. You know less government intrusion and what not, anti nanny state. Spare me the backdowns.

      You have no conviction in what you believe in and are a religious xenophobe. You hate Abbott’s religion just because he is happy to admit to being a Catholic.

      You may as well have called him a papist. Like rudd you are cowardly backing away from your true beliefs.

      Great points Steph and Dionysus. Hmm lets see how they respond.

    • persephone says:

      06:35pm | 04/05/10

      There’s scientific research to support raising taxes on smoking, so it’s got actual proof to back it, unlike religion.

      Oh, and religious people can try and force their views on people, obviously, and they do. There’s a difference, though, between arguing for someone to do something and forcing them to do it, and that’s the line I draw.

      You don’t have to read my arguments, you don’t have to accept them, and I have no objection to people voting Liberal or National or whatever.

      And I have the right to argue what I want to as well.

    • Mark says:

      11:12pm | 04/05/10

      What a tangent.

      So you have religious bias we get it. Couldn’t give a toss about your “arguments” they are simply tracking the same as Labor and Rudds popularity trending downwards in quality and becoming more panicked and devoid of reason.

      I love the scientific proof in raising taxes on smoking. What the hell does that mean? I am struggling with that.

      And proof of religion? There is a bit here and there scattered around the place. I am sure if you look you can find it.

      Don’t let your obvious problem with religion cloud your reasoning. Youtr post was quite disjointed and really stretches the truth. I mean seriously, are you that scared and frightened by religion you believe it is being forced on you? How do you like KRudd shoving it in our faces every sunday then eh?

    • Hamish says:

      10:15am | 05/05/10

      So Perse, how has Abbott tried to force his religious views onto you? By your logic you should have no problem with him unless he’s trying to convert you.

      The Labor Party has also always enjoyed very strong Catholic support which is obviously bad by your logic. Rudd’s an interesting issue here too. I suppose you don’t have a problem with Rudd being religious because we all know it’s just a sham and he actually isn’t religious at all. He just has some research which says that ‘working families’ think it’s good that he goes to Church and stuff and does press conferences on the steps. ‘Cos, you know, he’s got ‘values’ and everything.

      Of course you have a right to argue what you want (except in Victoria where it has to be political acceptable) just like Tony Abbott does.

    • persephone says:

      10:29am | 05/05/10

      I repeat: I have no problem with being religious (my mother and my grandfather were ministers; I have preached sermons, myself, and studied theology for a while).

      I have no problems with religious people trying to convert others to their beliefs.

      I have a problem when religious people try and take away the free choice of others based on their own religious beliefs.

      So:

      I have no problem with Rudd’s religion. It is a major driver of his commitment to social justice, for example. When he is aware,however, that his religious beliefs are clouding his judgement on a political issue, he has stood aside and let caucus make a decision without his input.

      I have problems with Tony Abbott’s, because he has used his religious beliefs to try and curtail the freedoms of others.

    • Hamish says:

      12:14pm | 05/05/10

      Perse, how has Abbott done this?

    • persephone says:

      02:06pm | 05/05/10

      Hamish

      by his attempts, as Health Minister, to block the RU486 bill.

      Howard had to intervene, despite previously saying he would not interfere with how his Ministers ran their portfolios.

    • Andrea says:

      12:59pm | 04/05/10

      I have to say there is nothing more delicious than watching Kevin Rudd slowly but surely falling from his throne with his tiara and hallo slipping.

    • Kate says:

      01:21pm | 04/05/10

      demeter ? why is Abbott a religious wacko? I cannot remember him using religion in almost anything he has done….....RU486 ? Abortion hotline? They are decisions lawmakers have to face.

      I dont mind people not liking someone or something they stand for, but bigots are bigots.

    • demeter says:

      01:53pm | 04/05/10

      It stop him thinking straight and clouds his judgement. Like all religious bigots.

    • Mark says:

      01:57pm | 04/05/10

      Don’t leave pers out.

      As the going gets tough the left play any card they can.

      Disgraces

    • Henry says:

      01:26pm | 04/05/10

      Good that there is light at the end of the tunnel finally.

      The last couple of years have been a very dark chapter in Australia’s history and I hope we as a nation can heal and begin to repair the damage.

    • Jonh McHenryson says:

      02:40pm | 04/05/10

      I think you’re being just a little bit melodramatic there Henry…

    • DJCJ says:

      01:48pm | 04/05/10

      I like to consider myself a bit of a swinger (voter that is!!), and whilst I thought the Rudd Government actually got off to a good start, its 2009 and 2010 has been appauling. Its work on the stimulus programme was good (despite us knowing really at the end of the day it was the mining industry and its huge export dollars coming in that saved us from a ‘technical recession’), and its intentions (not delivery) on education and health and telecommunications were sound. But since then its been one disaster after the next.

      I would be very worried if I was the PM and the ALP. Only a 1% swing will be enough for the Coalition to get back 3 seats, and a 3% swing to get another 3 or 4 seats. The projected swing if there were an election this weekend is about 2.5-3% to the Coalition. The Government only need to lose eight seats (correct me if Im wrong) to lose power.

      This election could be an absolute cliffhanger and could lead to a hung parliament. You might find that the Coalition might actually get more primary votes but not win (like Beasley did in 1998). 

      One more disaster, stuff-up or backflip and I reckon Rudd could nearly be dead in the water.

    • PTom says:

      04:35pm | 04/05/10

      Nice little site by Anthony Green @ ABC

      By his Calculator a Coalition only needs 2.4% which gice 17 Seats.
      http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/

      With that swing ALP would still have more votes 2 party preferred as they have some have very big voters seats.

      They really should look at even out all seats. How is it right for 1 seat to have as high as120,000 voters and others to have as low as 60,000 voters.

      All you knockers of Green voters remember there are more Green voters then National.

    • Hamish says:

      10:45am | 05/05/10

      Yes PTom, which just goes to show how many uninformed voters/uni students/delusional hippies there are in Australia.

      Although, I must say, I don’t like the National Party.

    • soultrader says:

      02:37pm | 04/05/10

      @persephone DEFENDER of the Faith. You are in great form today. The last Left Man Left Standing. I just need to know what you snort to keep the euphoria going??? Even a blind man can see that this government has failed the people of Australia miserably. Can you actually name something that it has achieved. Saying Sorry does not count as an achievment. I suppose, this government may well achieve the infamy of being a one-term disaster.

    • Mark says:

      03:00pm | 04/05/10

      Damn that is harsh soultrader.

      They all jetted off to sigh Kyoto. Now there is an achievement we can all be…......oh wait.

    • persephone says:

      03:01pm | 04/05/10

      Soultrader

      Thank you.

      No drugs required, just a clear mind and an understanding of how polls work.

      The government got us through the worst economic crisis in modern times. We now sit on 5% unemployment when - according to all projections - we should be looking at 8%.

      Keeping unemployment below expectations means we didn’t have to borrow as much money as was anticipated, and will be able to pay off the debt sooner than projected.

      Meanwhile, 24,000 schools will have better buildings and over 1 million homes have been insulated and important road and rail links have been upgraded.

      Keeping the economy on track has meant that we are now entering what the OECD predicts will be a boom time for Australia. Business confidence is higher than it has been for twenty years.

      Oh, and biggest health reforms (really, talk to a professional) since Medicare. And environmental flows for the Murray. And no Workchoices. And the apologies (two of them, remember?). And other things, but I’ve got to finish the washing up.

    • soultrader says:

      04:01pm | 04/05/10

      @persephone.
      I missed all those photo opportunities - sorry about that - now let’s look at those achievements. Mmmmmm -
      Insulation debacle / stuff up.
      BER - nice new buildings at 3 times the regular price - Mmmm - debacle / stuff up.
      GFC - Mmmmm - leftover Liberal warchest of $billions - Mmmmm - nothing left and lots owing - debacle / stuff up.
      5% unemployment - Mmmmmm - change the reporting and qualifying criteria and age for leaving school - fudge the figures - debacle / stuff up.
      Road / Rail links upgraded - Mmmmmmmm - not in SA baby - then nothing exists outside Canberra, Sydney, Brisbane & Melbourne - debacle / stuff up.
      Keeping the economy on track - Mmmmmmmm - industry closures and moving offshore - China buying everything in sight - Mmmmmmandarin - debacle / stuff up.
      Health Reform - Mmmmmmmm - take away 30% GST - control all health - like insulation & BER - not everybody signed up - debacle / stuff up pending - photo opp but no substance yet.
      River Murray Solution - Mmmmmmm - Oh yes it rained in Queensland and the state governments except Victoria agreed to let it flow, let it flow, let it flow - debacle / stuff up.
      No Workchoices - Mmmmmmmm -  refer to unemplyment point above - no emplument, no industry, no reform - debacle / stuff up.
      Oh Sorry - now that has achieved heaps and I did ask you not to count that one - because I can say Sorry here to you and that did not fix anything.
      2020 Summit - Mmmmmmmm - outcome - lots having a long weekend at my expense - debacle / stuff up.
      ETS / Copenhagen - Mmmmmm - enough said there - even the Greens rejected their left wing brothers and sisters.
      And let’s finish on the Henry Review - Mmmmmmm - great photo opportunity and sadly nothing done again except the ETS Tax by stealth.
      Sorry, Sorry, Sorry Persephone - you just have not convinced me unless you believe Failure spells Success for Labor.

    • FaiLP says:

      04:32pm | 04/05/10

      @Pers - You forgot to mention the important stuff…

      “The government got us through the worst economic crisis in modern times.” - Yeah, by throwing money around that will put us in a huge hole. Give me $10billion to throw down the drain and I can get the economy moving to

      “Meanwhile, 24,000 schools will have better buildings” - Yeah, but for the same cost, 90,000 schools could have had similar, better buildings.

      “1 million homes have been insulated” - Let’s not remember the four deaths and $1billion in wasted funds because of poor policy implementation.

      “Business confidence is higher than it has been for twenty years. ” - Which is clearly not the doing of the government, but can be largely attributed to the mining companies… You know, the ones Krudd and Swan are scaring away with their ridiculous taxes?

      “Oh, and biggest health reforms (really, talk to a professional) since Medicare.” - Anyone can shift GST funds around…

      “And the apologies (two of them, remember?)” - And these have done what exactly?

      If you have anything useful to add, please let me know, but make sure you add all the details, not just the parts that the ALP spin crew like to add.

    • luke09 says:

      05:14pm | 04/05/10

      persephone, that list of achievements by Rudd labor is patheticly inadequate considering the many many tens of billions of borrowed money spent.

    • persephone says:

      07:05am | 05/05/10

      Well, soultrader only asked me to name something which had been achieved, which is what I did.

      I don’t like boring people with long lists, which I don’t believe convince anyone of anything.

    • Mark says:

      11:30am | 05/05/10

      “I don’t like boring people with long lists” says pers.

      *snicker*

      The only long lists attached to this cowardly government is that of its’ failures and policy reversals.

      Hence no list from from pers.

    • Jeff M says:

      02:57pm | 04/05/10

      Rudd should pack his bags now, they just put interest rates up, that combined with this smoking tax will leave many many families in a big hole. Abbott should not get cocky about this because my gut instinct tells me hes not going to win either. The big winners will be The Independents, Steve Feilding is a nut but that other bloke is pretty good

    • DJCJ says:

      03:17pm | 04/05/10

      Jeff - You mean Xeonphon? Yeah - seems to have his head screwed on the correct way. Fielding is erratic. Some things he says make sense, other things he says are off the planet…..but then again, that’s par for the course in Canberra!!! 

      Reckon the Greens will do well in this election (just like in Tassie recently), by accident and through no effort on their own part.

      They’ll pick up the ALP voters not wanting to vote for their preferred party (in protest), but would not vote Coalition (due to either Abbott or out of their own individual principles, just like many Lib voters I know went Independent when they weren’t thrilled with Howard).

    • matt t says:

      03:12pm | 04/05/10

      Taxing cigarette users is not a tough decision

    • Angela says:

      03:15pm | 04/05/10

      I love it we have Rudd and Swan, swanning around the place today patting themselves on the back for making the tough decisions which could affect the polls. LOL What tough decisions???????? Whenever it comes time to make a tough decision they change their mind or shelve the idea. Cig tax, hardly a tough decision when most people hate smoking and it was a popular decision to make and telling us he’s directing the extra money into health. WOW that was a toughy. A tax reform report only takes up a couple of recomendations out of 138 WOW tough again. Reform the Health system, WOW that was tough too, no one wanted that, did they. Ditch the CPRS and not have a DD election on the biggest Moral Challenge of our time, oh Mr Rudd and Mr Swan you guys really are tough guys, and lone behold tax the big minning company’s, now thats a tough nut to crack, Joe Blow in the street is going to be up in arms about that, no wonder the dip in the polls today.

    • Kelly says:

      03:37pm | 04/05/10

      Poll driven decisions, nothing else.

    • Andy says:

      04:39pm | 04/05/10

      Like dumping the CPRS was all about following the polls, which showed voters weren’t so keen on a CPRS and realising he could pay off some of his ludicrous debt. No integrity or courage what so ever. All about Kevin keeping his job, nothing to do with having courage and making tough decisions. This man’s character is in deep question, he’s not worthy of being PM of Oz.

    • Max Power says:

      03:24pm | 04/05/10

      If Rudd and people like Persephone call raisng taxes on Cigarettes a tough decision, no wonder everything this Govt touches turns to crap. That decision was a no brainer and easy solution to raise more money to help pay off Rudd’s massive incompetence and rising debt. Couple this decision to the proposed increase in mining tax and Rudd has his replacement for his ETS to help pay off his massive incompetence and rising debt. God help us if Rudd and the rest of his incompetent govt are elected for a second term, we will be following Greece down the gurgler and the Chinese will be rubbing their little hands together.

    • Brian Connor says:

      03:25pm | 04/05/10

      Cape Lambert scraps iron ore project over mine tax….........here we go.

    • Helen says:

      03:34pm | 04/05/10

      How anyone in their right mind can even think of voting for this PM or his henchmen is just staggering.

      Prognosis:  Terminal and complete annihiliation in WA.

      This is what is called “socialism”.  Who and what will be next?

    • DJCJ says:

      03:52pm | 04/05/10

      Helen - I’ve been reluctant to use the word ‘socialism’ in describing current Government policy, but you know what as far as the RRT is concerned I just have to!!

      Im currently reading ‘Penguins Guide to Modern Russia’, and this RRT is almost a carbon copy of the Marxist-Leninist policies of the 1920’s in Russia. Their totalirization policies targeted the profits of particular successful sectors in the Soviet Republics (such as miners and forestors) and tried to re-distribute the profits to the collective farms and peasants of the Empire. It didnt work - the Bolsheviks ended up taking the profits for themselves, and most of the miners emigrated to Western Europe, and the peasants’ plight got worse and worse. 

      But this concept of penalising success and rewarding mediocrity is straight out of Das Kapital!

      Remember after July 1, 2012, corporate Australia will pay 28% business tax. The miners will pay 58%!!!

    • Saskia says:

      03:55pm | 04/05/10

      Don’t forget SA too.  The Liberals here got 52% of vote with massive swings against Rann.  Rann only won due to bizarre electoral boundaries. Rann/Rudd are regarded as siamese twins here - both total fakes.

      BHP has plans for worlds biggest mine in SA at Olympic Dam.  This is now under threat - despite Rann mindlessly supporting the Mine Tax WITHOUT one seconds consultation with Industry!

      Its the East Coast tofu eaters and assorted bogans that seem to be in love with Rudd.

    • Seano says:

      03:47pm | 04/05/10

      Howard was behind in many polls and he lasted 11 years. No matter how much rethoric, name calling and venting the conservatives do they’re still stuck with one major problem. Tony Abbott.

      As much as they love him there’s a large segment of the population for whom Abbott is unelectable. A segment of the population that Tony likes to cultivate with his “ideas” on things like the dole, sexuality, Jesus, birth control, women, sexuality etc, etc. Abbott’s main appeal is to other nasty far wingers, which is a much smaller group than the group he’s managed to piss off.

      Without any policy behind him at all Abbott is an experiment doomed to failure.

    • Freeman says:

      04:31pm | 04/05/10

      “Tony likes to cultivate with his “ideas” on things like the dole, sexuality, Jesus, birth control, women, sexuality etc”
      another massive exaggeration. yes, tony is openly conservative but its only the far left who are trying to paint him as a crusader. good luck with that Seano, the majority actually respect his views even if they don’t agree with him.

    • Seano says:

      06:23pm | 04/05/10

      I like the way you speak for the “majority”, how nice for you.

      The “far left” don’t have to try too hard to paint Tony as anything, he does a good enough job alienating voters on his own. However you dress it up Abbott has either scared or alienated a very large number of voters. With that millstone and no actual policy he’s a lame duck.

      PS. What happened to your usual red/green/labor/getup coalition rant? It is nice that you’ve toned it down and of course and highly amusing that you’ve pretending to be the voice of the reasonable majority. But sooner or later the tin foil hat is going to slip. Should we expect a name change soon?

    • freeman says:

      10:04pm | 04/05/10

      “However you dress it up Abbott has either scared or alienated a very large number of voters”
      perhaps you haven’t read this article or heard about the latest poll? while you and other lefties are wasting your time portraying abbott as “the mad monk in budgie smugglers” the majority have warmed to both Abbott and the Co-alition. As i said in a previous post, arguments
      such as yours become predictible, boring and lose their effect. even the ABC arn’t harping on about abbotts conservative ways anymore. you
      need some new material dude.

    • Seano says:

      11:25pm | 04/05/10

      Perhaps you haven’t read my post….Howard had bad polls at times and we were stuck with him for 11 years. Having drawn you a picture I’ll colour it in for you, this poll is in no way representitive of the other polls out there at the moment, even newspoll suspect it is an outlier.

      And just to put the finishing touches on the picture I’m drawing for you, even if the poll were accurate, none of those who have supposedly desereted Rudd have gone over to Abbott. Which shoots down your “the majority have warmed to both Abbott and the Co-alition”.

      You do good comedy champ. But go back to your red/green/get/labor conspiracy shtick that was at least was funny, this pretending to be a reasonable commentator thing seems kind of flat and tired. Maybe it’s because of your lack of credibility.

    • Andrew Freeburn says:

      09:15am | 05/05/10

      Not true Seano, but I love your weak efforts to make it personal.
      there was a swing to both the coalition and abbott in the Poll, as much as it may hurt you. it’s just that the libs gain wasn’t as good as Labors
      slump was bad. Even the centre left may see abbott as the lesser of
      two evils now and Abbotts views arn’t as offensive to most as you
      claim they are. nothing you have claimed has been reflected in the
      polls which in the end is the best way of measuring abbotts success.
      there has been a swing against labor in all recent polls and with the
      carnage around kevin rudd in the past fortnite don’t expect any good
      polls for Ruddy any time soon.
      while i agree that this poll may not be the election result it proves that Abbott is at least electable which you claim he isn’t because of his conservative views. but hey, don’t listen to me, just keep bangin on with your lovey dovey socialist ideology with its big ideas that don’t work in the real world and i’ll keep pushing the redneck agenda hey?

    • Seano says:

      09:50am | 05/05/10

      Genuis, nice of you to weight in in support of the obviously challenged “freeman”.

      So where have I pushed any “lovey dovey socialist” views. That’s what I enjoy about you conservative ranters, you don’t actually need a basis in fact to rant on and on and on.  You know nothing about why views or opinions but you’re happy to pull a whole line of argument out of your…hat. *golf clap*

      I stand by my statement that Abbott is unelectable to many, many people (note I have not said majority, as you and freeman have, it doesn’t need to be a majority I suggest you look up how our electoral system works) precisely because the dissatisfaction with Rudd has NOT translated into support for Abbott.

      Remember the last NSW election? Few were happy with Iemma and it was largely expected NSW Labor would get dumped but then despite the dissatisfaction no one apparently wanted to elected Debnam. Nasty far right wingers without policy find it hard to attract votes, what a surprise. Even now with all the problems NSW has the Libs still aren’t assured of a win. People don’t change governments easily.

      To many Abbott remains a scary, offensive, far right winger. Without any policy to back him up he is completely unelectable and even if dissatisfied with Rudd they will not vote Abbott if anything that’s what this poll is showing.

      I know the conservatives love their attack dog but without the master to pull the strings, the fixed parliament or anything resembling a sensible policy Abbott is all bark and no bite.

    • Andrew Freeburn says:

      12:22pm | 05/05/10

      “So where have I pushed any “lovey dovey socialist””
      right, none of your posts you’ve ilttered this website with contain
      your socialist views? no doubt you think you represent the centre of politics, just like everyone else here does…..
      “That’s what I enjoy about you conservative ranters, you don’t actually need a basis in fact to rant on and on and on”
      and when progressive types like yourself run out of arguments you start with the insults, slurs, innuendo and start reporting rumours as
      fact (claiming howards knowledge of the tampa and awb scandals being my favourite)

    • Seano says:

      03:00pm | 05/05/10

      OK freeburn/freeman/freesnag or whatever you’re calling yourself at the moment.

      Whilst you’re digging through my old posts looking for evidence that I’m a hardcore socialist why don’t you have a look at the ones where I get stuck into the government over the NBN, put the boot into the NSW Labor government being hopeless or advocate work for the dole? And then get a grip. I maybe a bit left but I’m not entirely blinkered unlike many conservative ranters.

      As far as insults, slurs and innuendo go…Bwhahahahaha…go and have a at the name calling and carry on that substitutes for insightful comment with the rest of your conservative bretheren.

      BTW. Kinda sad you need a sock puppet to back you up.

    • Freeman's sock puppet says:

      09:10am | 06/05/10

      Sorry about the use of all the different names (schizophrenia’s a bitch)
      so you’re slightly critical of the labor brand, what does that prove? nothing, just coz I think the baby bonus was a bad idea and I think Kruddy may have something with his mining tax doesn’t change the fact that i’m a conservative ranter does it? 
      And yeah, the left has lots of lovely labels and insults it applies to people who don’t see things their way. Fascists, racists, bigots, nasty far wingers, rednecks, dog whistlers, whatever.

    • Seano says:

      10:32am | 06/05/10

      Slightly? Get a grip. That I don’t blindly support this or any government on the left side of policitcs highlights the fact that unlike most conservative ranters I’m not a one trick pony. As you can’t hold on to one tag name the idea of you offering views showing the diversity of opinion lacks credibility.

      And the right have lots of lovely labels as well. Both sides use insults and only someone with a servere brain malfunction would see this as a partisan issue.

    • Guy S says:

      03:48pm | 04/05/10

      After 11 years of Howard, now we’re stuck with another unprincipled populist. Rudd should be worried. Refugee-bashing, climate-loony bogans will vote Lib anyway, and trying to appeal to them has only alienated those who voted Rudd in for change. Yep, watch the Greens vote soar.

    • Guy S says:

      03:49pm | 04/05/10

      After 11 years of Howard, now we’re stuck with another unprincipled populist. Rudd should be worried. Refugee-bashing, climate-loony bogans will vote Lib anyway, and trying to appeal to them has only alienated those who voted Rudd in for change. Yep, watch the Greens vote soar.

    • Henry says:

      04:30pm | 04/05/10

      Yep don’t question the group think on AGW and illegal immigrants - otherwise you are a big bad evil loony….

      The Green vote is simply a Labor vote - no difference in practice.  Why bother to even pretend that people are voting for a different party when 100% of their prefs go to Labor regardless of whether they claim to be independent and claim to be issues based.  It is simply a coalition as seen in SA with the seat of Norwood and in Tasmania with the barefaced lies and treachery of the ‘Greens’.

    • TheBigMicka says:

      03:51pm | 04/05/10

      I don’t think this poll is a blip.  I think Kev will need a minor miracle to get back into positive poll territory cos there just ain’t much to like about the guy.  Disasters and stuff-ups aside, anyone who throws a tantrum about not having their hair dryer anywhere, let alone on trip to Afghanistan is not worthy to lead the local Poultry club, let alone the country.

      Having said that, I may be falling a little bit in love with Persephone.  Is that OK?

      Having said that,

    • steveo says:

      05:55pm | 04/05/10

      Does insulting a terminally ill man cut it.?
      Does asking where the Australians are in the ALP cut it?
      Does lying about an illegal slush fund cut it?
      Gawd! The list is endless as is the hypocrisy.

    • Peter says:

      07:01pm | 04/05/10

      This poll is not blip, and don’t believe the media that this is because of ETS, its not, its about tobacco taxes. People have been feeling the squeeze for a few years now and he has just devastated some lives. Im sure Rudd will be there to pick up the pieces and send these “artificially poor families” into commission housing, that they wouldn’t have needed if tobacco tax was fair…. Your taxes and government at work, you gotta love it…

    • persephone says:

      09:06pm | 04/05/10

      Of course it is.

    • Ben81 says:

      08:11pm | 04/05/10

      Stevo, of your weak arguments I think i’ll take you to task on the “lying about an illegal slush fund” one.  What are you referring to?  I remember someone mentioning that a few days ago, and as it turned out the words slush fund came from a misleading inflammatory headline in an SMH article about a roads project report, and SMH didn’t even go as far as you do with your lie, so i’m not sure where you pulled that from.  I mean I guess this is what you’re referring to. 
      The report found that because the processes of allocating funding weren’t transparent enough and more projects happened to be funded in rural seats held by the coalition (funny that when it’s mainly rural road projects) that it might put some of the funded projects open to interpretation that they were politically motivated. 
      How you go from a report recommending better record keeping and transparency in case people have concerns about how taxpayers money is being spent, which is fair enough, to “lying about an illegal slush fund” is anyone’s guess.  I guess you’ll read into anything what you want to read.

    • Matt Stewart says:

      10:06pm | 04/05/10

      It must be a tough slog for the Labor commenters today.  Between defending Rudd on the smoking tax on one hand, and accusing the Liberals of having no policy on the other, they have conveniently forgotten that it was the Liberals who proposed an increase in tobacco tax shortly after the 2009 Budget, and Labor who said the idea was just a stunt!

      Leigh Sales: Malcolm Turnbull’s proposed imposing a higher tobacco tax to cover the cost of keeping the private health insurance rebate, which of course was one of your election promises. That’s a reasonable enough idea, isn’t it?

      Chis Bowen: No, it’s not; it’s just a stunt.

      You can see the transcript here: http://www.treasurer.gov.au/DisplayDocs.aspx?doc=transcripts/2009/039.htm&pageID=004&min=ceb&Year;=&DocType;=

    • Seano says:

      11:32pm | 04/05/10

      Ah who’s defending Labor on the smoking tax? I think the right are over estimating the impact of the 18% of the populace who still smoke. Especially when many of the rest of us who don’t smoke see the win/win. Less people smoking, lower take up rate and less of our tax money required to fund their health care issues.

      Oh and what policy?

    • Nigel Catchlove says:

      06:18am | 05/05/10

      Well written Matt, unfortunately the ALP cheer squad have no sense of history.  They assume that the general public doesn’t remember what they had for breakfast yesterday so there is no way they would remember political facts from 10 months ago - sadly they are often right, but some of us do remember.

    • Matt Stewart says:

      12:25pm | 05/05/10

      Funny stuff Seano!

      “many of the rest of us who don’t smoke see the win/win”

      “who’s defending Labor on the smoking tax?”

      I guess the answer to the first question is ‘you’.

    • Seano says:

      01:06pm | 05/05/10

      It’s not much of a defence though is it really, you know the facts and all. I hardly had to try.

      Tell you what champ you show me a conservative non-smoker who thinks the tax is bad idea and I’ll show you an idealogue who didn’t give a toss when Howard raised taxes on smoking.

    • Matt Stewart says:

      01:41pm | 05/05/10

      Your defence of yourself is to criticise your defence?  Genius.

      I still think you’re missing the main point.  It’s pretty poor form to criticise an opposition party for lack of policy, then implement one of their policies months after you have already described that policy as a stunt.

      Not sure what your point is in your second paragraph, it seems to degenerate into a truism.  Or maybe you are just looking for a shoulder to rant on.  I hope you got it out of your system, happy to be there for you.

    • Seano says:

      02:54pm | 05/05/10

      What are you on?

      1. Less smokers, low take up and smokers are taking on more of the health tax burden for the health problems they’ve created. You can call that a defence. I call it letting the facts speaking for themselves.

      2. I’ll use smaller words for you. The only people complaining about this tax are hardcore smokers and the same conservatives who ignored similar tax increases under Howard.

    • Matt Stewart says:

      03:17pm | 05/05/10

      What am I on? I’m on a tall building about to jump.  Why?  Because I find it hard to accept that I have to share oxygen with a person who can’t understand that I’m not talking about the merits of the tax, I’m talking about Labor hypocrisy. 

      1. Libs put forward the policy
      2. Labor reject the policy as a stunt
      3. Labor say Libs have no policy
      4. Labor introduce the policy themselves

    • Seano says:

      04:33pm | 05/05/10

      I find it hard to accept that you think that Labor supporters need to defend what is essentially a good move.

      I find it hard to accept that you think the policies are exactly the same. Perhaps you need a lesson on same and different.

      I find it hard to accept given that there are similiarities in the policies that you believe that a government changing it’s mind on anything when the reasoning is sound is somehow a bad thing.

      I find it hard to accept that you point out the supposed hypocrisy of the government whilst ignoring the hypocrisy of the conservative punters who have put the boot in over a tax move that Howard also made during his time. One which I’m willing to bet the conservative kiddies didn’t think was a bad idea.

      I find it hard to accept that you think that a policy Turnbull had translates to the policy vaccuum that is Tony Abbott. And if you say it’s a party policy I’m going to laugh at you considering the number of policies in existence under Turnbull that have disappeared since the start of the Abbott experiment.

      Being up so high you really should be careful that you don’t hyperventilate.

    • Matt Stewart says:

      05:31pm | 05/05/10

      Lucky for you, I don’t think/do any of those things.  There seem to be an awful lot of words you want to put into my mouth, and we needn’t delve into the reasons for your massive paranoia about what I think, but the only thing I am saying here is this:  Labor have been extremely hypocritical over the tobacco tax.  Let me give it to you again, just in case you are still missing the point.  Labor have been extremely hypocritical over the tobacco tax.

      I’m not a conservative, I don’t care about this tax and I’m definitely not in the Tony Abbott fan club.

    • Seano says:

      05:51pm | 05/05/10

      Wow do you read your own posts? Apparently not, because that is clearly not all you’ve said or inferred.

      For someone not in the Abbott fan club, who doesn’t care about this tax you’ve spent a lot of time defending both.

    • Matt Stewart says:

      04:48pm | 06/05/10

      I just read them again.  I can’t see where I’ve even mentioned Abbott until I said I’m not a fan, let alone defended him.  You seem to be paranoid.  Nor can I see where I’ve either praised or criticised the tax.  Perhaps you’d care to quote me?

    • Christian Real says:

      07:32am | 05/05/10

      A story that i found online appears to indicate Tony Abbott’s failure as a Health Minister in the previous Liberal/National party Government.
      “Commonwealth Cuts Share Of Health Costs”
      5 November 2007:
      “Federal Minister for Health,Tony Abbott,used the tragedy of a woman miscarrying in a public toilet in the emergency department of the RNSH as an opportunity to conjure an intense political storm in the first weeks of the federal election compaign,repeatedly blaming the Labor State Government for what it described as crisis in public hospital emergency departments.”
      “Now a report by the government’s own Australian Institute of Health and welfare shows the federal government has steadily cut its share of hospital funding by 10% over the past decade.”
      “The Health Expenditure Australia 2005-2006 report shows that between 1996 and 2006,the Australian Government’s share of public hospital funding decreased from 45% to 41%,State and territory government funding during this period increased from 46% to 51%.”
      This story i found at:
      http://www.nswnurses.asn.au/news/10613.html

    • soultrader says:

      07:55am | 05/05/10

      Meanwhile, the State Governments, who ARE responsible for their hospitals and allied health systems, have had huge increases in GST and gambling revenue. What did they do with all that money? And surprise - at the time, Abbott was tangling with Labor State Governments - the very same governments that can’t even agree with Rudd & Co. And so, your argument means what exactly?

    • Christian Real says:

      08:10am | 05/05/10

      Interesting stories that i found on the Sunrise webpage today were:
      “Two LNP MPs quit to sit as independants”
      AAP, May 5 ,2010,7.25am
      “Two liberal National Party MPs have quit Queensland’s opposition and will sit as independants.”
      Rob Messenger and Aidan McLindon will remain in parliament as part of a loose coalition of independants and could possibly be joined by a third LNP defector.”
      “The pair resigned by email on Tuesday night, the Courier Mail reports.
      I found this story at http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/latest/7166765/two-Ind-mps-quit-to sit-as-independents/
      Another story I found was: “Howard’s LNP visit ‘an endorsement’
      “Former prime minister John howard’s visit to the Queensland opposition on Wednesday is a “rousing endorsement” of the Liberal National Party(LNP),the party’s leader John -Paul Langbroek says.”
      http://au.new..yahoo.com/a/-/latest/7166165/howards-Inp-isit-an-endorsement/
      I can only say that it appears to be strange that two Liberal/National party MPs and possibly a third one has quit the party, to sit as Independants on the Eve of John Howard’s visit, to give them a pep talk and tips on how to win office.

    • Andrew says:

      10:48am | 05/05/10

      Yawn…. I’ve got a more interesting story for you. $90,000,000,000 wiped off the Australian Resources Equities Index since the announcment of the success tax.

      Oh and before you go defending it as a tax against great big nasty miners and foreign devil investors remember that over $1 trillion is held in Australian super funds which hold a massive amount of Australian equities and are required to do so by their trust deeds. Therefore if they were weighted properly they have lost somewhere around $34-45b in the last week.

      That money out of every Australians super just to pay for Kev’s ineptitude. See how people feel when they get their super statements in June.

      The law of unintended conequences, either very poorly understood by the Rudd government or very well understood by a party seeking to commit economic suicide.

      But yeah, couple of LNP Mp’s in QLD going independent, wow, your right, that’s really BIG news!

    • Dude says:

      10:49am | 05/05/10

      Who cares, it’s a News Poll. Aren’t they owned by the same bloke that owns Faux News. As this blog, it’s a joke, and great for a laughs. Don’t you ever wonder where most great comedians get their lines?

    • Christian Real says:

      07:20pm | 05/05/10

      Andrew,
      Is it a rule of the Liberal party that you have to follow and echo their doom and gloom diatribe like blind sheep.
      These mines make enormous profits on a annual basis and it appears that they can afford to pay 40% tax for mining on our Aboriginal lands and in our Country, instead of sending most of their profits overseas and giving their generous donations to the Liberal party.
      What these big mining companies are doing is attempting to blackmail and bully this current government for taking this stand against them, when it appears that under previous Liberal governments they have been given a free ride.
      Why should these foreign owned companies be allowed to send their profits offshore, they are not very loyal to the Country that has allowed them to set up their mines and take our minerals out of our Country’s soil.
      And as you know Andrew, share prices rise and fall on a daily basis, what ever businesses that you invest in, so it is a bit rich to blame the government for a drop in mining share prices, that is the risk that everybody takes that invest in shares on the stock markets.

    • julia says:

      11:46pm | 05/05/10

      There is no diagnosis!!

      He should continue on as usual, confident in his own ability to lead the nation to victory. I know. It sounds like a footy war song, but it works.

      So lets all cheer for Krudd! The man who came to power on the back of the threat that what was and turned out to be the worst curse the nation had seen since Gough, plus 10.

    • Whitley21Corina says:

      08:44am | 17/03/11

      If you want to buy a car, you would have to get the loans. Furthermore, my mother usually takes a student loan, which supposes to be the most fast.

 

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