Every now and again Newspoll, like any other, throws up an anomalous result, which evens out in the next survey. But even if today’s numbers are just half right Kevin Rudd must have a very bad case of indigestion from that hotdog he scoffed at the Labour Day march in Brisbane yesterday.

The news for the PM is very bad. As Dennis Shanahan writes: “The Prime Minister’s personal satisfaction rating has dropped the most in the shortest time in the 20-year history of Newspoll ... the two-party preferred support for Labor has dropped to 49 per cent while the Coalition’s has risen from 46 per cent 51 per cent.”
Small Business Minister Craig Emerson was putting a brave face on things this morning, saying the results were thanks to the Government’s recent “tough decisions” such as the massive tax hike on cigarettes.
But a few pieces of analysis see it differently.
In his comment piece in The Australian Shanahan says: “The image of him being gutless and not standing for anything, having dumped his climate change policy, has hurt his standing as prime minister like no other issue.”
And another piece of research reported by The Daily Telegraph’s Malcolm Farr this morning also sheds light on the Newspoll result.
No matter how worthy or necessary his policy choices, Rudd must hack through a thicket of suspicion before he can convince a substantial proportion of the electorate that his intentions are straightforward.
The poorly-handled decision to pause on the battle to introduce an ETS seriously devalued Rudd’s policy credibility, and he is paying the price on tax reform.
Just 36 per cent of voters believe the Government increased the tax on cigarettes last week because Rudd was passionate about improving health in Australia, according to an authoritative Galaxy poll.
The poll, commissioned by the Institute of Public Affairs, found 53 per cent believed the attack on smoking was in fact a bid to deflect attention from other issues.
And on The Punch this morning Peter Lewis takes a good look a the latest Essential Report, which shows just how bad a look dumping the ETS was.
Newspoll chief Martin O’Shannessy was just on AM saying the huge drop for Rudd and the Government could be a “protest vote”, and may be corrected, but that the relatively steady results for the Coalition and Greens showed the poll may not be a wild anomaly.
So the diagnosis is fairly clear, but what’s the prognosis?
As an aside: Last week Opposition health spokesman Peter Dutton suggested Labor was manipulating Newspoll by making announcements such as the cigarette tax while the poll was in the field. If that’s true, the ALP must be rethinking that strategy today…
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