Kevin Rudd is seriously re-considering an August election after previously dismissing the idea when polls showed he was on the slide. The next two or three polls could decide the matter.
The revived option comes amid a growing view that the Opposition’s resurgence since Tony Abbott took over may be stalling because he is not yet seen as genuine alternative prime minister.
The theory goes that Mr Abbott’s personal approval rating may be acting as a ceiling on the Coalition vote because undecided voters believe he’s still got the leadership training wheels on. But the situation may be temporary. The fear in the Government is that his stocks could improve if he has more time to convince wary voters.
The last two Saturdays in August (21st or 28th) have emerged as possibilities meaning the formal campaign period could begin from early to mid-July. It would also mean as few as three more parliamentary sitting weeks left this term.
September is widely regarded as a political no-go-zone due to football finals, leaving August or late October / November as the other alternatives. Another argument for August is to take advantage of any referred gravitas from the visit next month, of US President, Barack Obama.
But a winter poll carries some danger. First, it risks dragging grumpy voters out to the local school or church to cast their votes on a cold wet Saturday. Some may express their displeasure through the ballot box. Kevin Rudd reminded his MPs several months ago that it would take just two or three voters out of every hundred to change their minds to see the Government tossed out. Second, it involves the gamble of firing the starter’s gun while the Government is still effectively neck-and-neck with the Opposition in the polls. Governments prefer waiting until they’re confident of an advantage.
Advocates of an early poll say it would catch an under-prepared Opposition still short of the middle-ground support it needs to win.
A well placed source says the August option is ``back on the table’’ particularly because Mr Rudd’s confidence, shaken by the harsh voter-reaction to the home insulation debacle and his emissions trading scheme backdown, is returning.
``He (Mr Rudd) seemed to lose his nerve when he saw the pretty vicious reaction to the emissions trading backdown and those other decisions the Government took a couple of months back,’’ the source said.
``But now, after Abbott’s recent efforts, Kevin’s back to thinking he has his measure. Remember how he went in the health debate at the (National) Press Club, an early election was very possible then, but things went pear-shaped and the option died.’‘
If it was dead, it apparently wasn’t buried.
The Opposition’s bad fortnight, in which Mr Abbott admitted not always telling the truth under pressure; he and his treasury spokesman fluffed their Budget reply; and deputy leader, Julie Bishop botched her handling of the Israeli passports affair; has strengthened Mr Rudd’s belief that his opponent remains vulnerable under scrutiny. It has also raised doubts about the Opposition’s tactical judgment.
``He doesn’t want to give him time to learn on the job,’’ one insider said of the Mr Rudd.
Senior ministers however, believe an earlier-than necessary poll would be too risky and generally favour waiting as long as possible to give the Government time to rebuild its stocks with disgruntled and disillusioned voters.
That said, there is also a school of thought that support for the Opposition is ``theoretical’‘. That is, polls show what voters `say’ they would do rather than what they actually `would’ do when casting their vote.
The next Newspoll, due this Tuesday is being keenly awaited. Such is the importance now being placed on these regular measures and their influence on the political atmosphere, that both sides are engaging in strategies to get favourable results.
On Thursday, Mr Abbott, who just two days before had promised he would not be ``an action replay’’ of his mentor, John Howard, did exactly that by reviving the hardline ``Pacific solution’’ asylum seeker policy.
The policy itself, involving off-shore processing in third countries and towing boats back to Indonesia, is probably undeliverable but it will be popular with some. Ditto Labor’s announcement yesterday that it would proceed with legal action against Japanese whaling. One wag quipped ``this is novel for Mr Rudd, an un-broken promise’‘.
Both announcements are seen as evidence of a new development in politics: ``Newspoll Friday’‘. If this one shows the Government coming back, Kevin Rudd may just decide an August election suddenly makes sense.
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