Mathematicians have released a study that made for great headlines, including:
(A fairly tenuous link but a mention of religious songs, and I’ll take any excuse to listen to Tim Minchin)
Faith no more! From New Zealand to Canada, religion ``to become extinct’’ in nine countries.
Study Finds Religion May Be Heading for Extinction in Parts of World.
Researchers Predict the End of Religion.
The US researchers had used a mathematical model to declare that organised religion is dying out in Austria, the Czech Republic, Canada, Finland, Ireland, New Zealand, the Netherlands, Switzerland - and Australia.
Their basic argument, unveiled at an American Physical Society meeting in Dallas, is that people who claim no religious affiliation are the fastest growing religious minority in many countries throughout the world. (Note that they define people with no religious affiliation as still being a religious group).
Their modelling of social systems shows that people tend to gravitate towards being in the majority - a sort of conformity black hole effect where people find it more useful to be the norm rather than the exception.
Or, as the mathematicians say: ``A single parameter quantifying the perceived utility of adhering to a religion determines whether the unaffiliated group will grow in society’‘.
Hmmm.
There are some clear limitations in what maths can tell you about people. They may tend to join the majority, but that doesn’t logically mean the remaining minority will vanish.
If that were true, no one would use Apple desktop computers or non-Apple smartphones, no one would eat meat in India, the Baha’i would not exist in Iran, and Christian minorities in the Middle East would have gone the way of the dodo.
So ``extinct’‘, then, is a clumsy overstatement of the otherwise very interesting findings that add to a growing amount of research showing that people are turning off organised religion.
But while membership of established churches may be declining, God is not yet dead.
In today’s secular(ish) society fewer people would tick the religion that they were born into as a matter of course - so they may still believe in God and go to church for weddings and funerals, but not necessarily identify as Christian.
The more interesting part of this research, then, is that people choose the path that is more useful for them, and they are no longer finding organised religion as useful as in the past. This will mean fewer defined religious spaces. What would that look like?
I’m in an optimistic frame of mind and would like to think that even with less mainstream religion people would volunteer for and donate to non-government organisations and charities, most of which have a religious basis.
That is another argument for sorting out the tax system so churches do not get tax exemptions merely for existing, but only for their charitable works.
The worst effect, I imagine, would be that so many people depend on the church for a sense of community, for solace, for friendship and other support.
Churches play a cornerstone role in otherwise disparate communities - a role that secular organisations have not yet filled.
While I would argue until I’m blue in the face that religion, and the magical thinking that often accompanies it, have no place in our legal and political processes, religion is - at this stage, but maybe not forever - still useful in society.
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@AndrewCatsaras Agreed. Kills more people than AIDS. Yet tolerated. Meanwhile: Good Insiders piece again Andrew.
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