“If you had asked me seven months ago if Rudd could lose, I would have asked you how much you’d had to drink,” says 65-year-old electrical engineer Robert Brown of North Ryde. “But now it is a real possibility.”
So it is. The assessment of Mr Brown is in keeping with the majority of the people we spoke to in our Punch street survey of voter sentiment going into this Federal Budget week. It’s a worrying trend for the PM, one which was born out by last week’s Newspoll, and today’s Nielsen poll in the Fairfax papers.
After looking set to coast to second term victory, Mr Rudd has taken a hammering in the polls. The disturbing thing for the PM is that many of the voters we met have a keen grasp of his backflips on the ETS, the insulation scheme, the school stimulus projects, and are now parrotting the Tony Abbott line that he is “all talk and no action.”
In what we’re billing as an el cheapo version of a professional focus group survey, The Punch team spent the past few days interviewing 40 voters in the seat of Cunningham (Wollongong), Bennelong (John Howard’s old seat on Sydney’s Lower North Shore), Roberston (held by disendorsed Labor MP Belinda Neal by the narrowest margin in the country) and in the Sydney CBD. Most of them also gave the Government a score out of 10.
We are going to go back to the respondents after Tuesday’s Budget to see if there is anything in the financial documents to change their assessment of the Rudd Government.
The survey was by no means exhaustive. But it was framed around one simple and non-loaded question - what do you think of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as PM? - and the themes which came through will alarm the ALP.
Voters needed absolutely no prompting in declaring that Mr Rudd has not exactly set the world on fire in terms of delivering on his promises.
This is what Robert Brown went on to say in our interview at the North Ryde Shopping Centre.
“The only thing he has delivered are those grandiose things, the apology, ratifying Kyoto despite the disaster that Copenhagen turned out to be, but he hasn’t delivered on policy. This latest business with the mining tax is terrible for the economy and for superannuation. And if I hear the term working families one more time we will have no radios left in the house because I will have smashed the last one.”
Mr Brown is keen to see Mr Rudd dumped - others less so, with many saying they will probably stick with Labor because they did the best job possible during the GFC, and others citing concerns with Tony Abbott’s style and lack of policy.
But overall the trend can best be characterised as a sense of disappointment, or of feeling let down, by the man who promised much more in his Kevin07 incarnation.
Rather than chopping and pasting their comments throughout this post, it is best if we take the quotes from the voters who kindly spoke to us, and let them speak for themselves.
Jonathan Dennaoui, 25, accounting graduate but now working as a barista:
“I feel at this time there are many issues that we have been bombarded with at the same time. The super tax on mining, reforms to the tax system, the state of the health system, investment in schools, our immigration policies, new tax on cigarettes, shelving of the ETS and scrapping of the child care centres just to name a few. Giving many interest groups reason to disagree with decisions being made. It is definitely one of the low points for the Rudd goverment. I still hold confidence in their decision making but have to say that there is reason for concern.” Score: 5/10
Rachel-Terese Goodwin, 19, Wollongong, looking for work:
“I do not think that they are doing a good job at all. From the point of view of my family we’re really struggling. It’s just really hard going and I don’t think they’re doing a good job of helping.” Score: 2/10
Michael Naughtin, 51, lawyer, Wollongong:
“They are doing their best to lose an election they shouldn’t lose. They ought to shoe it in because they opposition doesn’t have much. They are not selling their message, and Australians do not like the way he’s talking about the change he wants to make.”
Chantell Burnett, 18, community sector worker, Wollongong:
“Is he the one who raised smokes? Yea well I don’t like that. Private health cover is another one, the wait is really long right now, and if you have private health cover you get in first, so that seems unfair.”
Lorraine Moore, 53, office worker, Wollongong:
“At the moment I like Kevin Rudd. I mostly agree with what they are doing, it’s tough work. But I am more worried about them putting up the housing rates again.” Score: 8/10
Ashley Manne, 51, teacher, Wollongong:
“I think they are bloody awful. All rhetoric and no substance, then again, I didn’t vote for him. I’ll give them one point for getting there, one point for the MySchools website and one for the tax changes.” Score: 3/10
Julie Cario, married with four older children, small business owner:
“They’re not going too badly, but my husband has a small business and I am really concerned about he issues affecting that. It’s not entirely clear to me how these superannuation increases are going to work, which could be bad for small businesses.” Score: 7/10
Christine Riehl, 65, retired, Wollongong:
“Actually I have no complaints. I am a retiree with no kids at home, so it’s pretty good for me. But they have spent too much money on all these incentives, and he has gone back on his word on the ETS.” Score: 7/10
Des Mangar, 48, bank worker, Wollongong:
“Kevin Rudd actually lost it for me in that controversy around the Bill Henson pictures and the Chaser sketch. He came out and said “I think it’s appalling” and he hadn’t even seen them. Who does that? Plus you’re talking to a smoker here so I can’t be supportive of the tax hike in cigarettes. I want them to do better.” Score: 6/10
Georgina, Glebe:
There have been some positive changes since Rudd came to power: the apology, the stimulus package (which has impacted positively on Australia’s ability to pull through the GFC) and putting education, health and climate on the agenda. (With the budget) I’m hoping that there will be some measures implemented that limit excessive pay to executives, their ability to hide big bonuses and avoid tax. It’s obscene that those that earn the most are able to find loopholes in the system that minimises the taxes they pay. I’m hoping for a fairer system.” Score: 6/10
Caroline, Summer Hill
“They’re struggling. They have lost a lot of credibility through the failure of some of their major projects, the home insulation scheme, the environmental assessment scheme, and through their abandonment of the emissions trading scheme. I don’t actually agree with the scheme as i don’t think it goes anywhere near far enough towards making a significant change to our carbon emissions, however to the public eye it comes across as though they have gone flaccid on one of their major election platforms and promises. In the budget I’d like to see increased funding for mental health, paid parental leave, long term investment in renewable energy, higher tax on second properties so that people buying investment properties can’t negatively gear them while there aren’t enough to go around for first home buyers.“ Score: 7.5/10
Ben, Berowra
“When Kevin Rudd was elected I hoped for a strong leader who would make a hard decision and actively steer the country, and a government much more in touch with the times and finally one with a moral compass. I feel he got off to a promising start, but has so far proven to be fairly poor at following through with meaningful change despite a lot of promises and failed attempts. I feel I fit fairly well into the much publicised ‘working family’ bracket (early 30’s, married, homeowner with mortgage, one child, single income), and as such I don’t expect the budget to have any significant new benefits for me. ‘Working families’ are fairly well catered for and I suspect will not be subject to significant changes in an election year. I would however like to see some means of spreading the responsibility for curbing the rising inflation rate to something other than simply repeatedly lifting interest rates. Whilst I admit to a limited knowledge of economics & agree it is generally effective, there are many that see little benefit from the profits of inflation yet bear a disproportionate cost from interest rate rises.” Score: “Relative to how it was when they inherited it ie 2007, 4/10. Relative to other countries after the smoke cleared from the GFC, 8/10.”
Judith, married with two school-aged children, New Farm, Queensland:
“I would like to see increased investment in public infrastructure particularly education, health and transport services that will prevent disadvantage in the long term. Many of these are currently state issues but the states are struggling with budgets that are just too small to do what needs to be done. In particular I want to see more investment in public education, particularly learning support in the early years, more investment in the public health system, including preventative health and reducing waiting times, and more infrastructure for growth corridors outside our major cities, particularly transport and social services.” Score: 6/10
Tim, married with two children, Caboolture, Qld
“I would like to see our environment, including better use of public transport, included in the budget. I would also like to see education as a major improver and not just building grants and computers but more trained teacher, smaller class sizes and proper resourcing of schools.” Score 6/10
Matthew, married, moderate dual income, 2 children, Fairfield, Qld:
“In the federal budget next week I would like to see a budget which
recognises and provides some assistance for the difficulties faced by
middle class families with children, and the extreme costs involved with
extra curricular activites, which ultimately benefit society later on,
through health and/ or knowledge benefits. I would like to see a broader approach to stimulus programs, targeting select groups eg. education buildings and insulation, has been somewhat a disaster and smacks of some sort of cronyism or narrowmindedness. Increase in subsidies for new businesses, research and infrastructure projects would be better in my opinion. Lastly I would like to see budget measures which discourage those who wish to burden society with their lack of self control and will to
contribute financially to the community as a whole, let’s face it most
things come back to money. The baby bonus encouraged whole swathes of
‘second class citizens’ to extend or start families, this is going to
cost us in the next decade, I’m unfortunately on the front line with
this, “Thanks Peter!!”. Whilst the seemingly never ending pool of
assistance to the long term unemployed or unemployable enable generation after generation of ‘bludgers’.” Score: 4/10
Bob, 39, Dulwich Hill:
“They did the business on the stimulus package even if they should have been a bit sharper on the follow up checks. The last few weeks has shown a complete absence of political conviction in favour of electoral expediency. With the Budget they should reverse the ridiculous tax cut promises of the 07 election. Apply the revenue to a gradual reduction in national debt (though we are nowhere near as bad as the Greece, UK , Japan et al) and thoughtful (ie. long term) development of infrastructure (rail, health etc). The budget should also be anticipating a carbon taxed economy, though that ship seems to have sailed.” Score: 5/10
Tony, 40, Sydney, married with three children:
As a Labor voter, albeit a critical one at times, I was elated when Kevin Rudd was elected, especially with Barack Obama being elected as well. I am disappointed though that some of his initiatives have been watered down or dissolved. We elected him because the Howard government wasn’t doing what we wanted it to do and now Mr Rudd is diluting the very things we wanted him to do because of “perceived” pressure from the very Opposition that we don’t want in power. I wish Rudd would HTFU and get on with making some tough decisions. Despite all this, the big issue is the ridiculous three-year federal political terms we have in this country and the farcical amount of overgovernment. Not a lot will change no matter who is in power until (as if) something is done to change both of these things.” Score: “An average of 9 - he’s not the Libs - and 5 - I wish he’d get on with it.”
Geoff, 42, single from Beaudesert, Qld
I’d like to see a clear commitment to paying off debt, new controls on the Finance Services Industry and a new financial scheme or plan for major polluters to pay for their emissions in some way.
Alex, single, Noosa Heads
“I voted Labor last election. I won’t be in the next. They get a one only, for spin. The current performance can be summed up in two words: abject failure. What I don’t want to see in next week’s budget are any more handouts, any more useless programs or wasteful expenditure. God forbid we should deliver more GST revenue and the management of the health system to the Feds when they have made a ripe mess of everything else they have touched. Budget needs to focus on economic management/fiscal responsibility not inflationary stimulus measures. It needs to give confidence to the Reserve Bank so that it puts a hold on interest rate rises, and to business for sustainable growth and productivity.” Score: 1/10.
John,single (divorced) of Kangaroo Point, Queensland.
“To encourage more Australians to save some of their income, I would like to see the federal budget change in the way bank interest is taxed from the maximum rate to the lowest rate i.e. 15%. It is difficult enough to save some of our hard earned money with inflation and loan interest rates increasing constantly but we also have to pay the maximum rate of tax on the bank interest we earn on those savings, The income tax rate on bank interest should be no more than that of the superannuation contribution tax- 15%.” Score: 7/10
Brian, approaching retirement age, runs a family business, Lawnton, Qld
“What I would like to see in the budget….Honest Governance…not ‘Green Wash’ spin….as we have seen on the Climate Change about turn. No more fast track schemes causing pain to good businesses (such as Insulation and Solar).An enforcement of rules pertaining to companies sub contracting to shonky businesses who are not skilling our workforce. This method of subbing is a total cop out for Entrepreneurs and ‘get rich quick’ jocks with no respect for training for long term gain.” Score: 4/10
Michael, 40, Ashbury, NSW:
“I’d like to see more income tax paid across the board by Australians, excluding low income earners. Less in the man bag, more in the communal purse. What do people do with their money now?... they piss it up the wall or buy crap so they can get a brief feeling of perceived happiness.”
Barry Best, farmer Gilgandra, married with adult children:
“I don’t think they’ve thought it all out properly. They’ve done one thing after another and taken us deeper into debt. They’re spending money like water and now they want to tax everything. We’ll be the ones who end up paying for it. Kevin Rudd sounds impressive but I think he’s leaving a trail of destruction.” Score: 4/10
Tony Preston, construction, Terrigal, married with two kids.
“I think he’s getting us further into debt. Eventually we’ve got to try to get out of it and that usually takes a change of Government. Stimulus has come to an end and now there are lots of people who are out of work. I’m disappointed the Henry Review response didn’t go after state taxes and development costs. Building is the backbone of this area.” Score: 6/10
Dave Wallace, butcher, Karriong, married with one child:
“Terrible. Everything has gone bad since he got in. He’s spending too much money, just throwing it away. Bringing down Government debt has got to be the priority now.” Score: 3/10
Daniele Beauchamp, travel agent, Umina, partner with two kids:
“I thought that he was fine before. I voted for him but I’m not that happy any more. The stimulus package just tore through way too much of our surplus. I’ve just started working again. I’d love them to bring some kind of government child care in. About 50 per cent of our money goes on childcare. I’d like it to be subsidised rather than just refunded. It’s coming up with the cash up front that’s hard. Government debt is starting to get scary.” Score: 6/10
Emma, travel agent, Asquith, single.
“I’m quite forcefully opposed to most of the decisions he’s made. Especially in the past week on smoking and the mining tax. Mining will now be forced off shore. He’s spent all the money we had. I loved the $900 in my pocket but the funds have got to come from somewhere. The previous government worked to hard to pay off the debt and leave us with a surplus. I’m not expecting anything from the Budget. (When he was elected) Rudd was very appealing to the market, the problem is he’s got nothing to back it up. The public are starting to realise that now.” Score: 4/10.
Kate Sclavos, bookshop owner, Saratoga, single:
“I think that he’s trying to think outside the box to raise money but I don’t think it’s working. (As a small business owner) I’m very concerned about the changes to superannuation. I’m also wondering what the tax breaks for small business will be and what their effect will be. I’m also worried about them making any changes to the GST.” Score: 4/10
Peter Smith, salesman, Griffith, married:
“Not very good, and I don’t know what the stimulus package achieved. The home insulation thing has turned into a farce. The schools projects led to rip offs left right and centre. There’s no control. They need to enforce the rules. I’m not sure yet about the hospital take over but there needs to be more spending on hospitals. Score: 6/10
Bruce Kay, butcher, Bateau Bay, single
“I think he’s doing alright, considering how we’ve come through the Global Financial Crisis. I’d like to see more small business incentives. Swan said small business kept Australia going while the crisis was on. I’d like for the BAS to only be once a year instead of quarterly, and more on appreciation. At the moment they give with one hand and take with the other.” Score: 5/10
John Kennedy, retiree, Wangaratta:
“I think everything he’s touched is not working. The pink batts scandal, the ETS cancelled. I shudder to think how the hospitals thing will go and the schools package is a very grey area at the moment too. They promised everything but haven’t delivered, and squandered what the last government created. And Rudd is a bit too smooth.” Score: 4/10
Robert Bell, East Ryde
“He’s the worst prime minister we have ever had. Other than the fact that he could not lie straight in bed, there is no substance to him. I didn’t agree with the way he spent all of the money – the only reason we had that money was because of Howard and Costello, and now it’s gone. The stimulus spending, insulation, schools, it was a load of crap. And the great moral challenge of our time was climate change and now he’s abandoned that. I don’t know anyone who supports the job he is doing.”
Jill Neill, North Ryde
“I just feel that lying has become acceptable in this society, and he doesn’t think that it is a problem that he made all of these promises and failed to keep them. They have no idea of how fiscal policy works. Our economy was fantastic. He keeps blaming the GFC but really it comes down to his own mismanagement, we were in the best position of the world and we now have a debt that will take us generations to pay off. I got $900 from this government and I thought it was disgusting – I don’t even have a mortgage. It was a total waste of money. I hope that he loses the election, and I hope that he loses his own seat.”
Robert Russo, North Ryde
“I think he could probably be doing better. I think he has fallen down on the environment, and also by being a bit reactive generally with the shemozzle over the pink batts and all that. I think with the economy and the stimulus spending it was a little bit over the top, but we would probably be in a bit of a mess if they hadn’t done it. Obviously there have been a lot of builders who have made a killing but it was still good in theory.”
Jeff Gray, North Ryde, 37:
“He’s all talk and no action. The ETS, the insulation scheme, grocery watch, fuel watch - he doesn’t seem to follow through on anything.”
Jill Brown, 62, office assistant, North Ryde:
“Absolutely hopeless…his arrogance, he’s got absolutely no idea. He is a one-man band, nothing he has done has been discussed with his ministers. From the day he got in I always said Australia would not be big enough for him.”
Robert Brown, electrical engineer, 65
“If you had asked me seven months ago if Rudd could lose I would have asked you how much you’d had to drink but now it is a real possibility. The only thing he has delivered are those grandiose things, the apology, ratifying Kyoto despite the disaster that Copenhagen turned out to be, but he hasn’t delivered on policy. This latest business with the mining tax is terrible for the economy and for superannuation. And if I hear the term working families one more time we will have no radios left in the house because I will have smashed the last one.” Score: 1/10.
Janet McSpadden, 19, student, North Ryde:
“Kevin Rudd has not done anything to upset me and I don’t know anything about the other guy. I don’t really know who the other guy is. He will have to convince me during the campaign that he will make things better but he hasn’t done that yet. The fact that I don’t even know his name shows that.”
David Lovell, 29, chef, Parramatta:
“I don’t have too many problems with him. He promises a lot but he has not really delivered but the past couple of prime ministers have been like that too. I think we avoided the financial crisis pretty well, but apart from that he does not seem like he has done that much. I think the stimulus money needed to be spent but it probably got rushed which is why they have been having the problems they have had. But it wasn’t Kevin Rudd’s fault that things went wrong, just that there were not enough safeguards in place to stop the shonks rorting the system. I think he will get back in, only because Tony Abbott is not a very likeable person. And that’s pretty much what gets you in.”
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