When Tony Abbott was asked by Derryn Hinch the day before Australia Day what was wrong with a population of 35 million, he replied: “I don’t see what’s wrong with it either, Derryn, as long as we plan for the infrastructure we need to make it all work”.

But as with so many other national policy issues, Mr Abbott has had a change of heart. This week he has called for a cut in Australia’s immigration intake because he now regards a population of 35 million people by 2050 as being too big.
Let’s be clear about this – the Coalition’s policy reversal is purely poll driven. Mr Abbott wants to link in the minds of former Howard battlers the asylum seeker issue with a growing population, tapping into community anxiety about urban congestion and water scarcity.
He’ll run these two arguments in parallel, but invite voters to make their own connection with unauthorised boat arrivals and a growing population.
Shadow Attorney-General George Brandis falsely claimed this week that there has always been bipartisan support for immigration, air-brushing from history John Howard’s shameful effort of 1988 to harvest votes by claiming there was too much Asian immigration.
Senator Brandis went on to say that the Coalition wanted a return to the immigration levels achieved when it was last in power, as if this would lead a lower population figure by 2050 than 35 million. Yet in the last year of the Howard government, net overseas migration was 232,800 – much higher than the 180,000 per annum assumption that Treasury used in the Intergenerational report in arriving at a projected population of 35 million by 2050.
Hoping to minimise the backlash from the business community, Shadow Immigration Minister Scott Morrison has revealed that, while the Coalition would not cut the skilled migration program, it would slash the number of temporary visas of less than 12 months’ duration.
Go into just about any restaurant in an Australian capital city and you are likely to be served by a young person on a working holiday. And who runs restaurants? Small business owners, that’s who.
Yet again, the Liberal Party that claims small business owners as its natural constituency is slapping them in the face, just as they are doing to independent contractors in demanding that the school modernisation program be terminated.
Australia’s net overseas migration numbers have been bolstered recently by fewer migrants deciding to return to their home countries, maybe because Australia was able to stay out of recession while most of their home countries were plunged into the deepest recession since the Great Depression.
And a lot more Aussie expatriates came home – some for that same reason that Australia was doing a lot better than the countries in which they were working. For more than a decade a debate has been occurring in Australia about the brain drain; that our best and brightest were going overseas to work and live. Now that they are coming back, does the Coalition truly consider this to be a bad development?
No Australian government can or should control the number of Aussie expats choosing to return to Australia. Nor should a government tell law-abiding migrants who have legitimately been accepted into Australia that they should now leave.
In an election year the Liberals are not going to let the truth get in the way of a good vote-getting story.
Ask the Australian people whether there should be more or less immigration and a majority will always say less. But successive governments have acted in the national interest in supporting an immigration program that meets Australia’s long-term needs. Not any more, if Mr Abbott becomes Prime Minister.
Skill shortages and general labour shortages are likely to be a defining feature of Australia’s economic development over the next 40 years, a direct consequence of the ageing of the population to which Peter Costello drew attention in the first Intergenerational report in 2002.
Playing on voter fears of asylum seekers and population growth is politically opportunistic and, based on past efforts we should not be surprised that the Liberal Party is reverting to type, but it is certainly not in the national interest.
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@AndrewCatsaras Agreed. Kills more people than AIDS. Yet tolerated. Meanwhile: Good Insiders piece again Andrew.
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