Prev
Next

One good poll doesn’t mean you’re getting re-elected

Mark Kenny

by Mark Kenny

19 Sep 05:45am

Must Reads

The Punch is moving house - this is a caption

The Punch is moving house

385

Will Pope Francis have the vision to tackle this? - this is a caption

Will Pope Francis have the vision to tackle this?

122

Advocating risk management is not “victim blaming” - this is a caption

Advocating risk management is not “victim blaming”

251

Filed under: Labor Party, Liberal Party, Politics, Polls, Tony Abbott, Wayne Swan

97 comments

Political leaders rarely comment on opinion polls unless that is, they need to.

This bloke knows polls are a harsh mistress.. Picture: Gary Ramage

Plainly, Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan have decided they need to right now to dissuade waverers from entertaining a return to Kevin Rudd.

Without directly mentioning the former PM or Monday’s favourable polls (that would have been crass), Deputy Prime Minister Wayne Swan told colleagues that Labor was on the way back adding that Tony Abbott’s Coalition would “splinter” under sustained pressure from a rejuvenated government.

And the buoyant Treasurer, standing in for Julia Gillard who was in Perth for the funeral of a soldier killed in Afghanistan, went further.

“He said clearly there was some wind at our back,’’ a Caucus spokesman dutifully reported.

Mr Abbott may have been the stated subject of the comments, but the embedded message was for internal consumption: to wit, the case for sticking with the current leadership.

Swan’s uncommonly triumphant tone followed two national polls (Nielsen and Newspoll) which together confirmed a Labor recovery is indeed underway.

That is music to the ears of long-depressed Labor MPs but has had the opposite effect in the Coalition, which is now calling for unity after some Barnaby Joyce-led untidiness recently. It is also complaining of dirty pool with frontbenchers immediately linking “unreasonable” personal attacks on Mr Abbott’s student past with the poll slump.

But Mr Swan, who’s been working assiduously all year to reconnect with the Labor base - witness his attacks on billionaires and his Bruce Springsteen speech - said Abbott had made himself fair game.

“No political leader had injected more venom and aggression into political life than Tony Abbott since he became Opposition leader,” he told MPs.

Warming to his theme, he then upped the ante on the character assassination stakes declaring Mr Abbott’s singular focus on the carbon tax as a jobs and economy destroyer had exposed him as fraudulent and left him embarrassed.

“Abbott had run around the country as Chicken Little prior to July 1, and last week he was just a chicken,’’ he told the Labor faithful.

“If we continue to pressure them, they will splinter,’’ he said declaring they had little more than a “day-to-day strategy… held together by chewing gum’‘.

Of course, it may ultimately be Mr Swan who ends up embarrassed if the recovery stalls again as some within Labor think it might.

Newspoll put support on a two-party-preferred basis at 50/50 between Labor and the Coalition - a dramatic turn-around from recent months. It showed Ms Gillard leading Mr Abbott as preferred PM by 46 per cent to 32.

One month ago the two were level pegging.

However the Nielsen poll published in Fairfax newspapers, while charting a steady rise in Labor’s primary support, still has it well short of victory.

Pointedly yesterday, Mr Rudd entered the debate to reinforce his delight at Labor’s apparent competitiveness. It seems coded messages are everywhere.

What is clear through all the double-meanings is that Gillard-Swan team’s best chances of forestalling another Rudd challenge turn on convincing enough MPs they can hold their seats.

“MPs’ enthusiasm for a risky leadership change evaporates pretty quickly when they’re back on track to win themselves,’’ one senior Gillard supporter noted dryly.

Good polls are the necessary sign-posts along that happy road but using them openly is hardly risk-free and the current leadership is surely aware of the old adage: live by the sword, die by the sword.

Comments on this post close at 8pm AEST.

Most commented

97 comments

Show oldest | newest first

    • TimB says:

      06:21am | 19/09/12

      Newspoll: ALP 50, Coalition 50.
      Nielsenl: ALP 47 Coalition 53
      Essential- ALP 45 Coalition 55.
      Morgan- ALP 46.5 Coalition 53.5

      ONE good poll, in a week where the PM hasn’t exactly had a high profile, and Abbott has been kicked all over the media for unproven claims of a minor incident from 30 years ago?

      Yeah the ALP is on the way back /sarc. As long as you ignore the rest of the polls of course.

      When the rest of the polls start to agree & they sustain the figures over consecutive polls there may be something for the ALP and its supporters to crow about. But not before.

      Reply

    • I hate pies says:

      07:41am | 19/09/12

      Yes, it’s amazing that the MSM has been harping on about the Newspoll all week, with no reference to any others - and they say they’re unbiased?
      Everyone know Labor are gone, it’s only a matter of when and by how much. If they do manage to win I’m leaving; that will be confirmation that Australia is full of self-centred, short sighted lazy fools.

    • silas says:

      08:46am | 19/09/12

      hahahaha

      “Julie Bishop, has slammed the Nationals in the wake of Labor making gains in the polls, saying the minor party’s ‘‘freelancing’’ on pet policy issues was ill-disciplined and damaging the Coalition.”
      ‘Ms Bishop took it upon herself to read the riot act to the party room in the wake of the latest Herald/Nielsen poll and Newspoll showing Labor making small gains and Mr Abbott’s personal approval sliding.

      As doubts emerge about Mr Abbott’s ability to change his image, Liberal MPs stressed that there was no panic in the ranks.

      ‘‘Nobody is hitting the panic button or even reaching for it but they are checking that’s it’s still there,’’ said a senior MP.”

      Even the cockroach is nervous.

    • Borderer says:

      09:07am | 19/09/12

      I reckon they should call an election, put your money where your mouth is.

    • DJ says:

      09:09am | 19/09/12

      The fact that you feel you need to refute it is telling TimB.

      There is a trend even on Morgan the ALP has picke up 7 points on 2PP since they bottomed out at 39.5% in May and as noted are still well behid in the majority of polls. Personally there is only one poll that matters and that is election day, all the polls are showing at the moment is that things are returning to normal in the polls and that the gap is within a couple of points which is historically normal.

      Have a read of George Megalogenis blog for a good interpretation of current events and stop stressing the Libs will still probably win next year although I have my doubts that Abbott will lead tem to that victory.

    • Alfie says:

      09:47am | 19/09/12

      Shhhh….don’t tell the empress she has no clothes on.

    • vox says:

      10:01am | 19/09/12

      I hate pies says that “everyone knows Labor are gone, it’s only a matter of when and by how much”. Well, that’s pretty definite, I’d say.
      Then he thinks a minute or sixty, before throwing in the qualifier, “If they do manage to win I’m leaving.” He then adds that him leaving will be confirmation that Australia is full of self-centred, short-sighted lazy fools.
      Yes , IHP, but you must admit with you gone there will be at least one less of them.

    • TimB says:

      12:05pm | 19/09/12

      “The fact that you feel you need to refute it is telling TimB.”

      Disproving ridiculous statements with actual facts is ‘telling’ now? Huh. That’s a new one on me, but whatever.

      And the polls have had Labour hovering between 44-47 2PP for ages now. One extraordinarilly bad poll as quoted by you, and one extraordinarilly good poll as per recent Newspoll is not evidence of a trend, upwards or otherwise. They’re outliers. Simple statistical analysis will tell you that.

    • DJ says:

      01:14pm | 19/09/12

      TimB - have a look at the graph half way down the page on this link, it is the poll of polls, facts not opinion -
      http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/blogs/the-pulse/politics-wrap-september-17-2012-20120917-26122.html

      There is a trend in the numbers at the moment but nothing for you to worry about. Like I said there is only one poll to worry about. To many peopleon ere cite polls as reasons for elections, not to take on a policy position etc. (not saying you) and really they are irrelevant.

      It is interesting for al the discussion it is mainly LNP supportes calling out ALP supporter for crowing yet I can’t see too many instances of crow on here -most ALP suprters acknowledge the hole is still deep and a win atthe next poll is improbable.

    • TimB says:

      03:18pm | 19/09/12

      Thanks for that graph DJ. Yes I can see what you mean about a “trend” but keep in mind that for the most part that trend ranges between the 44-47 mark as I suggested in my previous post. You’re right in that 47 is still dire, my comments are directed at those who seem to think that this latest 50-50 poll is the new “norm” and were indeed crowing about it yesterday.

      If you want to see some seriously crazy crap, pop by Bob Ellis’s blog. He has been ranting for months about how Newspoll is tainted, how the figures have been deliberately manipulated on Murdoch’s orders to produce terrible figures for the ALP. He then starts rabbiting on about how he thinks preferences from the Katter party and people who own mobile phones would skew the results towards the ALP, not to mention factoring in the margin of error to favour the ALP exclusively (utterly ignoring the fact that margin of error could just as easily go the other way).

      This 50-50 poll comes out, all of a sudden it’s competely honest, and all the factors that apparently tainted the last dozen or so terrible poll figures have magically ceased to exist. The man is a cosmic joke.

    • thatmosis says:

      05:09pm | 19/09/12

      I always find it amazing that every time Julia brings out a new policy that is going to cost billions, which we really haven’t got and probably wouldn’t start until a couple of years from now< the polls give her a jump, god that’s an unfortunate choice of words and a sickening thought too. Then people sit back and realise that the policies are really only more lies and spin and the polls go down again so Julia thinks up some more and away we go again.
        Talk to anyone out of the Latte sipping city set, you know the real people of Australia and they know that Labor and Julia in particular are not only on the nose but destined for the Unemployment lines next election. Julia always says she is not driven by polls but if she gets a good one she certainly lets everybody know.

    • acotrel says:

      06:25am | 19/09/12

      ‘One set of good polls doesn’t mean you’re getting re-elected’

      What it probably means is that Tony Abbott is now completely unelectable, and that Malcom Turnbull is about to take over as per the master plan.  The LNP has been playing ‘good cop, bad cop’ with the electorate ?
      The stuff about Kevin Rudd having another go at toppling Julia, is probably a freudian slip.  Leadership challenges must be big in the minds of the LNP ?
      ‘Whatever it takes’ eh fellas ?  There will be an election in the near future (31st November 2013) and we are almost there !
      Until then Julia has the numbers in the Reps, and she will be passing laws like crazy !

      Reply

    • Sherlock says:

      07:34am | 19/09/12

      “What it probably means is that Tony Abbott is now completely unelectable, and that Malcom Turnbull is about to take over as per the master plan”

      Seriously?

      The only people that want Turnbull as leader of the coalition are Labor voters.

      Likewise, the only people that want Rudd back as leader of the ALP are Liberal voters.

      Both would be a disaster.

    • gabrianga says:

      08:41am | 19/09/12

      Onanism so early in the day? Buy yourself a pair of boxing gloves,

    • Borderer says:

      09:00am | 19/09/12

      Acotrel
      Until then Julia has the numbers in the Reps, and she will be passing laws like crazy !

      The reason she has had a lift in numbers is because she hasn’t been doing anything so your assertion will see her sub 30 real quick.

    • Marco says:

      09:07am | 19/09/12

      “Leadership challenges must be big in the minds of the LNP”

      Gillard knifed a sitting PM of only 1 year in the dark of the night. 

      Pot meet Kettle.

    • flossie says:

      11:32am | 19/09/12

      Not very clever are you acotrel - there will never be an election on 31st November in 2013 (or any other year) because there are only 30 days in November.

    • Marian Rumens says:

      06:31am | 19/09/12

      There’s no need to dissuade waverers from entertaining a return to Kevin Rudd since more Labor voters prefer Julia Gillard. It’s only Liberal voters who prefer Kevin and they wouldn’t vote Labor or Kevin anyway Same goes for Malcolm Turnbull and the Liberals

      Reply

    • Turnbull now says:

      08:57am | 19/09/12

      Perhaps, the poll is saying something different.

      “A breakdown shows that in the past three months, support for Mr Turnbull among Coalition voters has risen 4 points to 53 per cent while Mr Abbott has fallen 5 points to 45 per cent, giving Mr Turnbull an eight-point lead.”

      Perhaps what the poll is saying is that coalition voters have realised that Turnbull is more electable than Abbott and the time to act is now.

    • acotrel says:

      09:05am | 19/09/12

      The’ Kevin Rudd leadership challenge’ has become just another hoary old chestnut to be dragged out by the LNP in moments of grief. However the ‘Malcolm Turnbull leadership challenge’ is hanging over Abbott’s head like the sword of Damocles !

    • Pollster says:

      10:06am | 19/09/12

      Rudd leadership challenge?

      Give Benson and Ltd. News time.
      It took 4 months to conjure up a challenge last time and the change in poll results indicate it is going to take longer this time.
      In fact, it may not be possible.

      If Ltd. News is serious about getting the conservatives up, Benson should be focusing on a Turnbull leadership challenge.
      Time appears to be running out.

    • Damocles says:

      01:43pm | 19/09/12

      Aco says, “hanging over Abbott’s head like the sword of Damocles ! ” My sword ain’t hanging over Abbott’s head. It’s hanging directly over Gillard’s big fat head…......a sure target methinks!

    • Tom says:

      02:21pm | 19/09/12

      Turnbull stunk up the polls last time he was opposition leader. The only people baying for his return are ALP mischief makers or people ignorant of Turnbull’s record.

    • nihonin says:

      06:46am | 19/09/12

      Oh whoopee, Labor are undergoing a resurrection apparently, according to two polls in one week of how many weeks of polls.  Quick break out the cordial, just in case it doesn’t last longer.

      Reply

    • acotrel says:

      08:03am | 19/09/12

      You will get over it.  The LNP has always had feet of clay ! Just shake Tony Abbott and he will topple.

    • nihonin says:

      10:09am | 19/09/12

      I was over it, long before your Liberal comment, I just think it’s a hoot all the Labor sycophants coming out and dancing and singing in the streets over 1 poll.  Love your work acotrel, keep it up.

      Also enjoy seeing the Liberal sycophants crap their pants as they go into apoplexy as they spin it off.

    • Gravelly says:

      06:58am | 19/09/12

      Just ask Anna Bligh about polls, and what comes after!!! Brin on the election ASAP! Remember Queensland!

      Reply

    • True Blue Ozzie says:

      08:30am | 19/09/12

      Yep we Queenslanserd are a unique, we can make or break our pollies at any given time!

      ” Lest Labor Forgets” !

    • Mitch says:

      09:45am | 19/09/12

      Just ask Campbell Newman about polls and how fast they can turn around. Remember Queensland!

    • Rickster says:

      01:31pm | 19/09/12

      What comes after the Queensland poll? slash and burn thats what.Then stupid Liberals saying they will do the same in SA only more slash and burn, that will cost her the leadership for sure and then they want to recycle Hamilton Smythe so he can have another go at stuffing up.

    • Damocles says:

      03:09pm | 19/09/12

      Just as Gillard won government and pushed her mean policies through parliament, against the will of the people, so Newman won government, by a huge majority, and can now push through his cost cutting policies, against the will of some of the people. You Laborites should be accepting of that!? I mean come on, let’s be fair, if Gillard can do it and still be okay with you, then Newman can do it too! Difficult and unpopular decisions have to be made and Campbell Newman will not shy away from the hard job of responsible leadership.

    • Alfie says:

      07:15am | 19/09/12

      Quote of the day:

      Gabrielle Chan on Kevin Rudd - “He is not the messiah. He is just a naughty boy”.”

      Reply

    • Compassionate Conservative says:

      09:25am | 19/09/12

      Still not the quote of the week.
      That one goes to this joker.

      Alfie says:11:26am | 11/09/12
      “The parasites in the public sector are now getting what they deserve.”

      Excellent work alfie.
      Calling ordinary people that have families and mortgages, who went to school, got qualifications and found employment in the public sector and are now being chucked out onto the streets parasites is quite clever.
      No wait. it’s an interesting perspective and a look into the conservative mindset that says more about conservatives than public sector workers.
      Did you hear this turn of phrase at an Abbott private fundraiser?

    • Alfie says:

      03:13pm | 19/09/12

      That was last weeks quote you dumb troll - try to keep up.

    • NESLIHAN KUROSAWA says:

      07:28am | 19/09/12

      Hi Mark,

      Polls don’t lie or do they?  Sometimes a little bit of both really!  I personally feel that polls can be a bit of a confidence booster for some politicians some of the time!  However I personally feel that they should still do all the hard work besides hoping and wishing for the best results.  No need to get all nervous or uptight because that kind of stress can show on our faces which can actually prove to be a bit of a bad news for our good complexion, only joking. So does this mean that as women we tend to vote for good looking leaders with lots of of confidence and charm? I would say “yes” sometimes we do vote for entirely different and unique personal reasons altogether!

      I would like to think that next Federal elections are bound to be a little bit different and very colourful indeed!  Simply because for the first time ever members of the Liberal Party will be competing with a female Prime Minister unless of course if there could be another leadership challenge on the horizon for the ALP.  And I do have the feeling that Australian female voters as well as the undecided votes of Australia can actually make it happen for either Political Party involved.  Kind regards to your editors.

      Reply

    • Gregg says:

      08:43am | 19/09/12

      We had a female PM in 2010 electioneering in case you had not noticed and she was all but done save for a couple of belligerent independents of whom it could be said had LNP supporters as the biggest majority in their electorates.

    • Stephen Douglas says:

      09:09am | 19/09/12

      Strange I thought Julie Gillard was the PM at the 2010 election?

    • AM says:

      07:49am | 19/09/12

      I liked Kevin Rudd as PM and I would like it if he was returned to that role to lead a Labor government to power with a genuine majority.

      But Gillard and her petulant front bench have said too much and pretty much set out to destroy Kevin Rudd’s character and any credibility he could have as leader of a united front.
      The true Labor supporters have had to grudgingly accept that a spiteful, mean albeit competent and progressive Gillard-Swan led government is vastly preferable to a terrifyingly vicious, punitive, slash-and-destroy style of an Abbot-Hockey-Bishop led government.

      Reply

    • Marco says:

      09:04am | 19/09/12

      “I liked Kevin Rudd”

      There’s your problem.

    • Warren says:

      09:49am | 19/09/12

      Rudd squandered huge political capital by dropping the ETS like a hot potato. He managed to get next to nothing done and theLabor caucus hated him. He will never lead Labor again.

    • Gayle says:

      07:58am | 19/09/12

      TimB I believe the claims about Tony Abbott years ago.  You say the claims are unproven, but he is still using bullying tactics today.  That is the measure of the man - he is a thug and has proved it time and time again.  I hope the Liberal party gets rid of him.  But having said that, he is a great thing for the Labor Party.  I will be voting for Julia in the next election, and so will many others.

      Reply

    • Mouse says:

      08:57am | 19/09/12

      and gillard is such a sweet little, softly spoken princess! lol
      You and many may vote for her but there will also be many others that won’t.  :o)

    • acotrel says:

      08:59am | 19/09/12

      In a minute, the game will change and Turnbull will be leader, and we will still get the slash and burn cascade into a real depression.

    • Marco says:

      09:05am | 19/09/12

      “he is a thug and has proved it time and time again”

      Has he?  Can you prove it?  Or is it just piss and wind Gayle?

    • John Wilson says:

      09:24am | 19/09/12

      That is the interesting thing about it. Even if it is not true about what happened 30 years ago, the story certainly does fit into the public perception of Abbot by and large. Probably the reason the story has surfaced/been fabricated now.

      Like it or not one of the main problems with Tony Abbott is that he comes across as an extremely combative fellow. That combativeness is what makes him such an effective opposition leader. However it is also a potential turn off for swing voters. It is mind boggling that even though this is widely thought to be one of the worst governments in Australian political history (according to polling) that the opposition leader is behind in the preferred PM poll…..to a PM who has been painted out to be and accepted to be by the voting public, a liar.

      Be interesting to see how Abbotts temperament holds up should the ALP keep creeping closer.

    • Ben C says:

      09:58am | 19/09/12

      @ Gayle

      You believe the Abbott incident happened based on:

      - One alleged victim saying it happened.
      - One “witness” who didn’t see it happen at all, yet has just taken the word of the alleged victim as gospel.

      The alleged victim may have a case, she may not have a case. Only she and Abbott know. But the “witness” (and I use the term lightly) can not be taken as credible, since he did not actually witness the event. He would be deemed unreliable in a court of law.

      And speaking of bullying tactics - ever seen Anthony Albanese during Question Time? Pots and kettles and all that, Gayle.

    • Lita says:

      10:55am | 19/09/12

      Bullying tactics?  Just watch how Albanese repeatedly stop the Coalition debating the question where will Labor get the funds for their $130billion budget hole in question time.  Also Swan stating Tony Abbott as a thug in question time and you are repeating it here.  Being a bully is not restricted to men, women do it too just as you are doing it here.  I am a woman and there is no way I will vote for Gillard.  The incontrovertible evidence about her professional conduct and her allegiance to the Union no matter what make her the most incompetent manager of this nation.  And wait…..there is also a new gossip about her written in the The Australian.

    • Drama Queen says:

      11:29am | 19/09/12

      Gayle - you are a hypocrite. How can you have your opinion of Abbott when you have the likes of Combet in the cabinet who stormed parliament in 1996. Why are you not calling for Combet to be removed?

      http://www.2ue.com.au/blogs/2ue-blog/found-footage-of-parliament-riot/20110324-1c7qq.html

      And believing the claims with no evidence - why do you not level to same standards for Gillard and call for her to be removed after her scandals? Or Craig Thomson or Peter Slipper? Why because you’re a hypocrite.

    • iansand says:

      11:33am | 19/09/12

      I think the bullying allegation is interesting, and not as it applies to Tony Abbott.  You only have to hang around here for a while to see our very own crack team of Young Liberal Attack Bloggers leap on anyone who has a view contrary to that of their masters.

      Why they think that rabid attack is an effective method of changing anyone’s mind (which, one assumes, is the object of the exercise) is one of life’s greater mysteries.

    • Jokular says:

      12:10pm | 19/09/12

      Badger/Kathy, not only cross dressing, but now multiple female personalities, the Punch has everything to amuse, in one place.

    • Mouse says:

      12:33pm | 19/09/12

      Well iansand, it seems to work for gillard and her crack team of henchmen! lol :o)

    • paulh says:

      03:58pm | 19/09/12

      But its not ok to question the PM about her relationship with a married union leader, a union leader for whom the PM set up slush fund accounts and bought a house and LOST her job, or an mp who was found guilty by a labor fair work inquiry of rorting Hundreds of thousands of union funds and still sits in parliament and votes labor. or a gov that forcast a $12 billion deficit but ended up with a 444 Billion deficit, with a national debt rising faster than all but two EU countries.Yet has NOTHING to show for the wasted BILLIONS. wake up Australia.Labor learnt NOTHING from their baseless attacks during the qld election and will try again at the next election.Name a policy that has been succesful,that has stayed within budget,that has benefited the country ???

    • Bear says:

      05:03pm | 19/09/12

      @Pauli . She gave advice that’s all , didn’t set up anything and that’s not just her word. She also eats babies for breakfast and washes them down with a pint of virgins blood each day!

    • Bear says:

      05:12pm | 19/09/12

      @paulh I can’t see ANYThing in your post that is true or even close to it! Is slander legal now? Must be.

    • Tom says:

      05:48pm | 19/09/12

      John Wilson, “Like it or not one of the main problems with Tony Abbott is that he comes across as an extremely combative fellow.” Or are you just repeating the current ALP “sheeple mantra”?

      Every time I see Abbott on TV, he comes across considered and calm, certainly far more polite than Gillard or Albanese.

      As someone pointed out, ALP negative campaigning against Campbell Newman backfired in QLD. It and may well backfire again for Labor.

    • Peter says:

      08:01am | 19/09/12

      Funny how labor has started reading and commenting on the polls, all of a sudden. I guess when people get sick of hearing what Tony was up to at school, and why liberal premiers have had to make the hard decsions because of the debt they inhereted from labor, the polls will see labor nose dive again, and no more comments from labor on polls.

      Reply

    • Dash says:

      08:02am | 19/09/12

      Anyone who returns to the ALP after their performance over the last 4 years is a compete bloody idiot! I fail to see how it can be justified by anything but a selfish leap onto the ALP gravy train.

      How anyone can justify the lies, deceit, the waste, the rorts, the fraud, the union bully boys, the AWU and HSU scandals is completely beyond me.

      Some people have no morals at all I guess!

      Reply

    • vox says:

      09:45am | 19/09/12

      If you are happy to discuss morals Dash, perhaps you would like to discuss Abbott’s morality in re the young lady whom he admitted sleeping with, (sans marriage of course), which lady he left unsure of whether he had left her with child. Now that Dash, is a clear example of your double standards, Abbott’s double standards, and the double standards of everyone who raises the morality, or lack thereof, of anyone, anywhere, whilst claiming their own purity.
      And he was a catholic priest. Not just a catholic, but a catholic priest. And we all know to what elevated standards they hold themselves.
      Prove me wrong if you like, and you may, because I’m only taking Abbott’s word for what happened and that’s risky on any subject.
      I notice TimB didn’t give much of his straw-clutching to the “preferred P.M.” figures.
      ‘Bye Tony, but we really could have done without your bullying buffoonery.

    • Marco says:

      10:24am | 19/09/12

      @vox.

      I presume you wouldn’t be so hypocritical to suggest Gillard has only ever procreated within the sanctity of marriage?  True, she has mostly slept with married men, the problem being they were married to someone else! Morals indeed.

    • Ben C says:

      10:49am | 19/09/12

      @ Marco

      Haven’t you heard the news? Any criticism of Julia Gilalrd is deemed sexist and misogynistic, even if it’s true.

    • TimB says:

      12:16pm | 19/09/12

      “Prove me wrong if you like, and you may, because I’m only taking Abbott’s word for what happened and that’s risky on any subject”

      Abbott said he was a Catholic priest? I don’t believe he ever said that. You do realise that training to be a priest and actually being a priest are two totally different things.

      And if you think that Abbott sleeping with his girlfriend without being married to her is immoral, that’s your business. But I would think that someone who has an affair with someone *already* married to someone else would be a whole other level of immorality. It’s not a double standard to point out the issues with that.

      It would however be a double standard to whine about Abbott whilst ignoring Gillard’s activities, would it not?

      PS. I can’t believe it took me so long to twig to this, but I’ve uncovered your 4th identity. I’m suprised I didn’t realise it at the time, I must have been distracted.

      Need a hint? Perhaps it will all come back to you as you attempt to explain this prediction:

      Posted 21/10/11-

      “Next week there is to be an announcement that will knock your Conservative socks off. It is to be the undoing of the Liberal Party, and the much lower level criticism of the ALP. Oh yes, the Nats don’t get off scot free, either.
      Abbott, gone. Howard’s rep, gone. Gosh, I love this. “

      Please tell your alter-ego that I’m *still* waiting for this mysterious announcement that was to spell the end for the Liberals.

    • HappyG says:

      12:58pm | 19/09/12

      @TimB. That should guarantee a particularly poisonous response from the toxic vox. Just waiting for the spittle to start flying now.

    • Dash says:

      01:13pm | 19/09/12

      So vox, a beat up allows you to justify support for ALP bullshit and incompetence!

    • droog patrol says:

      01:16pm | 19/09/12

      timmie flicks on his light sabre and looks anxiously for signs of an approaching alter ego.

      His cape dances behind as he swivels and turns in anticipation. Notes from punch posts gone by are flung into the air and fall like autumn leaves to the floor.

    • vox says:

      01:23pm | 19/09/12

      And for all of your understandable vitriol,(that’s Lib-speak for “Ive got nothing of substance to add”), you still didn’t reply to my comment about the preferred P.M.
      And if you think that sleeping with a married person and leaving someone who, in your own opinion, you have possibly fathered a child to, are equally immoral then I recognise your choice to enlist in the Liberal Party support group.
      And HappyG and Marco, that wasn’t so poisonous was it. It’s not as if my closest confidant in the Parliament said something like, “Gay marriage is the first step to bestiality” or similar. Now that, you silly sycophants, is poisonous. Or don’t you think so?

    • TimB says:

      01:52pm | 19/09/12

      “And for all of your understandable vitriol,(that’s Lib-speak for “Ive got nothing of substance to add”), you still didn’t reply to my comment about the preferred P.M.”

      Actually no, I simply missed it- But if it will make you happy I’ll reiterate what I’ve said many times before:

      PPM on it’s own is a novelty, as we do not vote for a PM (as you well know)  It’s one of the factors already taken into account by voters when choosing who to support and as such is already a component of the final 2PP figure. As such the 2PP polling figure is and always has been the only figure that has any real bearing on upcoming elections.

      “And if you think that sleeping with a married person and leaving someone who, in your own opinion, you have possibly fathered a child to, are equally immoral then I recognise your choice to enlist in the Liberal Party support group.”

      I don’t think they’re equal. I think that having an affair with a married man is *far* more immoral behaviour than anything Abbott did. You’re the one who seems to think that they are equal as you accuse Dash of having double standards regarding it.

      “It’s not as if my closest confidant in the Parliament said something like, “Gay marriage is the first step to bestiality” or similar. Now that, you silly sycophants, is poisonous. Or don’t you think so? “

      I don’t know where you got ‘closest confidant’ from (I suspect you made it up), but certainly Abbott agrees with you that it was out of line. Or haven’t you heard that Bernardi has resigned his position?

      Now, nothing about the crazy ‘end of the Liberals’ prediction from last year?

      PS. Badger why don’t you run along and find a new toy to play with?

    • Ben C says:

      02:03pm | 19/09/12

      Whoa, whoa, whoa vox, are you telling me that you don’t think having an affair with a married man and breaking up his family (Gillard and Emerson) is as bad as abandoning one’s potential duty as a parent (Abbott)? Christ, I see them both as equally bad, as both situations leave an equally negative impact on the children.

      Or are you so one-eyed that Abbott is the Devil and Gilard is beyond reproach, even when she is clearly wrong?

    • HappyG says:

      02:12pm | 19/09/12

      Thanks @vox. You didn’t disapoint.

    • TimB says:

      02:53pm | 19/09/12

      Ben, it should be pointed out that Vox is insinuating something rather different to what actually happened with regards to Abbott. Look at what Vox has written:

      “Perhaps you would like to discuss Abbott’s morality in re the young lady whom he admitted sleeping with, (sans marriage of course), which lady he left unsure of whether he had left her with child.”

      “...leaving someone who, in your own opinion, you have possibly fathered a child to…”

      Someone reading Vox’s posts with no prior knowledge of the situation, could be easily mislead into believing that Abbot abandoned this woman once he thought he had fathered her child. Indeed that appears to be what Vox is claiming.

      The truth is actually more complex. As I understand it, They decided to put the child up for adoption as they acknowledged that neither one of them was ready for the responsibility of raising a child. The best interests of the child were taken into account and he can hardly be faulted for that.

      And as it turned out, the child turned out not to be his anyway. (That may also mean that his girlfriend had actually cheated on him, but I’m unaware of the timing there). Regardless, I really don’t see how the incident can be compared to a responsible adult woman who knowingly went after a married man.

    • Ben C says:

      03:16pm | 19/09/12

      @ TimB

      Yeah, I remember that. Still, it’s bloody rich of vox to condemn Abbott for engaging in adultery that had a potential but eventually non-resulting long-term effect on anyone, yet say nothing about Gillard engaging in adultery that resulted in Emerson having to leave his family.

    • Mouse says:

      04:07pm | 19/09/12

      There was no adultery for Abbott BenC, he was 19 and single, as was the young lady.
      A bit different for gillard though, both times!  :o)

    • OBYNNE mORTON says:

      08:08am | 19/09/12

      Your comment:Malcome Turnbull is more LABOR THAN LABOR !

      Reply

    • Martin H says:

      01:47pm | 19/09/12

      I disagree, in the strictest sense, Malcolm is actually a true Liberal, more than you can say for his fellow conservatives. True Liberals are a rare breed.

    • Richard M says:

      08:13am | 19/09/12

      This isn’t just one poll, Kenny, and you know it.  The resurrection of the Government has been a gradual process that has been showing up in a consistent trend in the polls for some months.  That’s why all you know-all pundits are starting to panic a little about having totally written the Government off for so long now, and are writing articles like this, trying to pretend its just a one-off.

      The fact is that the longer the voters get to see Abbott close up, without all the interference of other non-issues, and contemplate the prospect of him as PM, the more they’ll turn away from the Coalition.  Rather than a return to Rudd, which all of you have been predicting ad nauseam for a long time, what about the every real prospect, if the current trend continues, of the Liberals chucking Abbott out?  Most of them don’t like him and would stab him in the back as soon as look at him if it seemed that he might not win for them.

      I will continue to revel in the discomfort of our ignorant, shallow, short-sighted, and mainly just plain wrong, political punditry.

      Reply

    • Mahhrat says:

      08:20am | 19/09/12

      What is it with party faithful?  If the roles were reverse, the words being uttered would be identical, just from other sides of the house.

      ALP, LNP, two sides of the same very, very thin coin.

      Reply

    • marley says:

      01:17pm | 19/09/12

      Yep.  I’m for tossing the coin, both sides, into the wishing well and hoping that something better than either of them emerges. It’s not a big ask, after all.

    • True Blue Ozzie says:

      08:23am | 19/09/12

      The Gillard led Labor party have nothing to crow about! Anyone with a brain can see that Labor can not beat him in the parliment! A Labor born smear campaign, to tarnish Abbotts dealings with women, was nothing but a cheap shot and most people can see through that spin. Gillard has failed dismisely to attract the support of many female voters in Australia, but a quick way to turn this around is to smear the oppisition leader as having ” women issues”! As our first female PM one would have thought that most women would have been very supportive of her, but from my experience and talking with mant other women this has not been the case. Yes the decitful carbon tax has been in for a few months now nor will we see any great change so early into it’s introduction, only after the 3 year mark, will we know the true impact on our daily lives and cost’s.
      All the while Gilliard leads Labour or her faceless men, I will never vote for Labor again. I changed camp and voted for Rudd, due to Howards Work Choices, but since then Labor has failed to impress as a voter. I have no care for what a sitting PM or future does in their private life, but I wont a PM who can run our country with stability and chop back the wasteful spending.

      Reply

    • tez says:

      08:32am | 19/09/12

      No but it dose mean that Mr Abbott’s minders will have to start doing some overtime to get him up to scratch with his interview skills

      Reply

    • Martin H says:

      01:52pm | 19/09/12

      LOL - How clever do you thinks his minders are? They’re not miracle makers.

    • Gregg says:

      08:45am | 19/09/12

      ” “He said clearly there was some wind at our back,’’ a Caucus spokesman dutifully reported. “

      Well, they’re full of wind and it usually emerges from behind you!

      Reply

    • RANK FRANK says:

      09:48am | 19/09/12

      Julia should rush to an election now. Probably the only real chance she
      has. I would not dwell on her achievements they would fit on a Post-It.
      Whereas her failures would not fit on an A1 sheet ( I was going to say
      A0 sheet but didnt exagerate)
      The Current Government was fatally flawed from its day one alliance
      with the Greens and Independents - probably the worst Gov Australia
      has ever had. Jullia can only expect polls at about 33% and that could
      be generous.

      Reply

    • hb pencil says:

      10:30am | 19/09/12

      What a bad government.
      Economy the envy of the world, low interest rates, low unemployment, nation building infrastructure investment.

      Yes, bad government indeed.

    • Parker Pen says:

      11:30am | 19/09/12

      @hb pencil

      “Yes, bad government indeed” - you said it.

      You rattle of items that, except perhaps for the last, have little to do with the government’s performance (or lack thereof).

      The latest example of SNAFU, the super trawler fiasco, is just another glaring example of the fact that this lot are basically incompetent. Not to mention the horrendous debt levels being incurred all the while.

      Policy wise they are lightweights and on policy delivery they are hopeless.

    • Blind Freddy says:

      02:12pm | 19/09/12

      Compliments of wikipedia:

      “Rounded to millimetres, the A0 paper size is 841 by 1,189 millimetres (33.1 × 46.8 in). Successive paper sizes in the series A1, A2, A3, and so forth, are defined by halving the preceding paper size along the larger dimension. The most frequently used paper size is A4 210 by 297 millimetres (8.3 × 11.7 in).”

      Looks like A1 is a huge piece of paper and A0 is even bigger. Was that a compliment you were giving Julia?

    • TimB says:

      04:48pm | 19/09/12

      “Looks like A1 is a huge piece of paper and A0 is even bigger. Was that a compliment you were giving Julia? “

      You really aren’t very bright are you Freddy?

      Pay attention to what Frank wrote: “her failures would not fit on an A1 sheet”- i.e. there are so many failures, they couldn’t possibly fit on a sheet of even that size if you wrote them all down. And as noted, he was considering going to use another size, which you have so helpfully noted was even larger.

      So exactly how was he complimenting Gillard according to you?

    • Bob of the freezing tropics says:

      09:51am | 19/09/12

      Another unfunded $1.4 billion to be promised by Gillard for childcare to be announced today, this in top of about $14 billion announced in the past few weeks of other never to be achieved projects.  I would love to think she will deliver but alas we all know her record. With all these sweetners lately I can really smell an election before christmas!!

      Reply

    • Michael S says:

      10:35am | 19/09/12

      The 50-50 poll was clearly a rogue number. Labor’s made some ground up, but their prospects are now upgraded from apocolyptic to catastrophic.

      Reply

    • Richard M says:

      11:38am | 19/09/12

      Rubbish, nonsense, poppycock.  These poll numbers are part of a trend to the Government that has been evident for some time now.  The poll people themselves have acknowledged as much.  You Punch righties can tell yourselves if you like that it’s just a series of rogue polls, and that your certainty of an Abbott win at the next election is still justified, but you really know deep down that it’s time for you to start getting anxious!  It’s half way through the third quarter, only a couple of goals the difference, and the momentum is with the other mob! 

      It’ll be just fantastic to watch as you mob get increasingly anxious, and probably even louder and more vicious in your attacks, as the comeback continues - which it will, as long as Abbott is Leader.  The fact is that the more voters examine him up close, the less they like what they see. Also, the political debate has got back to the things that matter, and the things which are Labor’s strengths, such as health and education.  And of course Coalition State Governments are just gifts to Labor that keep on giving.

    • TimB says:

      01:22pm | 19/09/12

      “You Punch righties can tell yourselves if you like that it’s just a series of rogue polls”

      What series? A series implies a plurality.

      Please post the results so we can see this trend you speak of.

    • Black Dynamite says:

      11:42am | 19/09/12

      Just think, there’s a possibility that both parties may actually be able to do something that benefits our country if they didn’t spend so much time find new wonderful ways to defame each other. It’s like watching two kids fight over a bucket and spade at the beach.

      BD

      Reply

    • Anna C says:

      11:49am | 19/09/12

      It’s amazing how Julia’s poll results went up because she was absent from our TV’s cause of her father’s passing.  Now if only Labor could keep her off the telly permanently until the next election then they might be in with a chance. Hahahahahahahahah oh it’s just too funny.

      Reply

    • DavidT says:

      12:17pm | 19/09/12

      I think I can explain the latest Newspoll. It has nothing at all to do with politics but a certain amount of sympathy for Julia Gillard over the death of her father - and we should sympathise with anyone who loses a parent or someone else they love and respect.
      That said, public sympathy may not actually translate into votes on election day.
      The efforts by Labor and their media supporters to continually denigrate Abbott, indeed libel him, may be paying off. There is little chance that the student “story” (for which there is not one iota of proof ) will go away under Labor’s watch - it will be used over and over again right through any election campaign. 
      Were the media to do the right thing and report in an honest and unbiased fashion then Abbott would be far more popular than he is. They know that and they cannot afford for it to happen. It would suit the media’s bias to have Turnbull (former Labor affiliate and republican to boot) in the job. He would be much easier to manipulate.

      Reply

    • Chris says:

      01:54pm | 19/09/12

      Wow! Someone has finally said it like it is!
      Yes, a sympathy vote for Gillard and the Labor media doing its darndest to make something out of nothing (because I was at uni with TA and the individual making the complaint and, believe me, NOTHING HAPPENED or it would have been all over the campus in no time at all).
      David Marr is to be condemned and so are those who repeated the story. It’s rubbish - but convenient for Labor who are desperately trying to further blacken the name of Abbott.
      And, for the record, I did not vote in the last election. I was out of the country.

    • Jay says:

      12:32pm | 19/09/12

      Labor doesn’t have to do anything for the moment other than let the State Liberals show what is in store for people. Newman could guarantee that Labor may save QLD whereas they were looking at oblivion a while ago.
      If Labor had any brains they would wait as late as possible before they call the election because Abbott is now out of his comfort zone.

      Reply

    • Cat says:

      01:18pm | 19/09/12

      We all know that EVERYONE loves the Liberals so polls schmoles. Thanks for telli g people what they should think like always Driberals.

      Reply

    • Mark my words says:

      01:57pm | 19/09/12

      Tony Abbott will not lead the Coalition to the next election, he’s gone, give it another 3 or 4 months with the polls heading south and his own party will abandon him.

      Reply
 
Sorry, comments are now closed for this article.

Facebook Recommendations

Read all about it

Punch live

Up to the minute Twitter chatter

See all tweets

Recent posts

The latest and greatest

The Punch is moving house

by The Punch Team

385

The Punch is moving house

Good morning Punchers. After four years of excellent fun and great conversation, this is the final post…

Will Pope Francis have the vision to tackle this?

by Hannah Harborow

122

Will Pope Francis have the vision to tackle this?

I have had some close calls, one that involved what looked to me like an AK47 pointed my way, followed…

Advocating risk management is not “victim blaming”

by Sarrah Le Marquand

251

Advocating risk management is not “victim blaming”

In a world in which there are still people who subscribe to the vile notion that certain victims of sexual…

Nosebleed Section

choice ringside rantings

From: Hasbro, go straight to gaol, do not pass go

Tim says:

They should update other things in the game too. Instead of a get out of jail free card, they should have a Dodgy Lawyer card that not only gets you out of jail straight away but also gives you a fat payout in compensation for daring to arrest you in the first place. Instead of getting a hotel when you… [read more]

From: A guide to summer festivals especially if you wouldn’t go

Kel says:

If you want a festival for older people or for families alike, get amongst the respectable punters at Bluesfest. A truly amazing festival experience to be had of ALL AGES. And all the young "festivalgoers" usually write themselves off on the first night, only to never hear from them again the rest of… [read more]

Light weight

Gentle jabs to the ribs

Superman needs saving

Superman needs saving

Can somebody please save Superman? He seems to be going through a bit of a crisis. Eighteen months ago,… Read more

28 comments

Newsletter

Read all about it

Sign up to the free News.com.au newsletter