North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il is dead. This means both many people watching the famous Team America “I’m So Ronery” clip, and potentially enormous global implications. For all the news see news.com.au’s coverage here. The Punch spoke to Associate Professor Felix Patrikeeff, who is Head of the Discipline of Politics and Master of Kathleen Lumley College at the University of Adelaide, where he is currently teaching the Comparative Politics of Leadership and Intelligence Studies (he is also the President of the South Australian Branch of the Australian Institute of International Affairs).
What do you think will happen now?
One of two things will happen. One is that the new leadership under Kim Jong Il’s youngest son (Kim Jong Un) will take shape fairly slowly behind the scenes until such a time as he can actually take power in his own right.
Or else, there could be a power struggle at the very top of the North Korean political hierarchy - and that may well include a little bit of relaxation and liberalisation if the country.
Who could the struggle at the top be between?
Between the “faceless men”. Literally, they are faceless - we just don’t have enough material on who occupies the very important positions within the political and military elite who hold sway in powerful places.
All of that happens under a cloak of extreme secrecy Kim Jong Il’s own ascension to the Sun God’s throne was actually via a period of precisely the same sort of blanket secrecy during which time he consolidated his power base.
Should we be optimistic that there will be liberalisation?
The South Koreans are very worried but that’s because they’ve taken a much harder line under the current president.
There have been more liberal leaning people in the North Korean hierarchy who’ve been behind some pressure to create free trade zones in the model of the Chinese ones, so there are liberal elements in the leadership that may serve to connect with the rest of the world. They may well push through a little bit of liberalisation that then could be fed upon by both South Korea and the other countries that need to.
When Kim Jong Il was basically completely off the radar for a couple of years, it was then that a little bit of experimentation went on in a free trade sense.
Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said the world will not mourn Kim Jong Il, but that’s not true within North Korea, is it?
Absolutely not. The regime in North Korea is probably the best shaped Stalinist regime over the years. It’s in perfect keeping with the autocratic authoritarian regime where the leader is put up on a pedestal, has very little contact with the ordinary people and he’s seen in image only, rather than in frequent contact with the population.
When they do see him, I’ve seen plenty of evidence that people really do become emotional, because he’s their great champion, their saviour.
Is there anything other countries can do to encourage a better outcome?
Only push and prod and engage at this important time. If the third party powers actually know people in the North Korean regime (and that’s a question mark) then this is the time to send out some feelers to see precisely what the mood is like, and see if any bridges can be built to make a more stable relationship – with the US particularly because that would normalise and regularise the situation better than any posturing.
Is there a danger of complete destabilisation?
Always - if there’s a power struggle and different factions, and remembering the North Korean army is the 3rd or 4th biggest in the world. It really is a question of whether or not those factions will begin to engage in the power struggle.
But we won’t see it. It’s won’t be visible from the outside. What we might see is some of the results of that in terms of social policy… but I doubt it, I think they’ll try to keep it steady as it goes.
We’ve seen a lot of bad guys die this year, figureheads and active political figures. How does Kim Jong Il fit in?
He is both a figurehead and active politically, so we’re in for a very interesting early part of the year and possibly even the whole of next year will be very interesting indeed to monitor because we’ll begin to see whether the regime is capable of sustaining yet another member of the dynasty, whether he is capable because he was only installed last year and he’s very young and he’s really without experience and he’s only there because he was appointed and anointed by his father.
So it’ll be a steep learning curve for him and we can only hope his advisors are level headed people who would prefer a stable regime… but we just don’t know.
Is there anything else you’d like to add?
The only other thing to mention is that in connection with North Korea opening up to the outside world is the fact there’s so many factions and bars in place against it globally that it’s really in the world’s interests to show a bit of concession at this time to make it less of a pariah state than it has been.
When we saw Kim Jong Il go to China and Russia, what he was doing was ensuring he had some form of lifeline to the outside world. So it could be interesting and worthwhile if North Korea could form bridges with other third party states in a genuine way. It would result in an opening up of the situation which would be in everyone’s interests.
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