Reports of the big Australian-built car’s death are – as Twain quipped – an exaggeration, or at least grossly premature. But there’s no denying the patient has gone from just looking a bit poorly to possibly needing palliative care.
The little Mazda3 trounced the 5-year top seller Holden Commodore in 2011, after the big boy slid about 12 per cent in sales. And the Ford Falcon fared worse with a 36 per cent slump. Between them, they hold 81 per cent of the large car segment, with the Aussie-built Toyota Aurion owning 12 per cent – but also diving 24 per cent in sales last year.
The large car segment overall was down 21 per cent in 2011, echoing three years of slides that have seen sales move from 139,677 in 2007 to 78,077 last year.
So over that time, the pulse has dropped 44 per cent. It’s fading. And only the most evasive physician would pretend otherwise. Tell ‘em, doc – they can take it.
The patient needs regular transfusions of sales lifeblood, but the pool of donors is steadily dwindling. And the defribillator application of funding shock-treatment hasn’t always hit the right target.
Long-time friends are increasingly tiptoeing into the room with a bunch of grapes and a minute of chit-chat, then looking at their watches before rushing off. To buy a different car.
Family members – particularly the smaller ones like Holden Cruze—are fluffing pillows and smiling. Mainly because they’re already carving up the estate.
Hard-core fans – and not a few hopeful foes – are gathered outside in a vigil. But even the faithful are buying fewer big cars too.
And some people are already grieving. There will be more joining the tissue-clutching group, and they’ll probably need expert counselling to get through the decline and bereavement.
For that, Elizabeth Kubler-Ross’s On Death and Dying gave us the textbook Five Stages of Grief theory.
Denial – this can’t be happening
Yes, it can. While the suggestion we’ll stop building large cars here amounts to treason in some minds, you need to look at the facts. It’s not a matter of ‘if we build it, they’ll come’ but ‘if they buy it, we’ll build it’.
Anger – it’s not fair, it’s not right, and it’s somebody’s fault
Sure you can blame it on rising fuel costs, tighter budgets, dwindling carparks… that might make you feel better for a few minutes. But pointing the finger at affordable imports and smaller cars is like blaming bread for being eaten in favour of cake.
Bargaining – how can we buy more time?
Wheel in the defribrillator again, make sure it’s fully charged, hit the right part of the body. But while you’re working on the large car, you could be neglecting smaller patients that could flourish here if the conditions were right.
Depression – it’s all too hard, so why go on?
Because it’s not just about the large car. There is a massive tetris-effect of interlocking industry that supplies and supports local car manufacturing. But if Holden, Ford and Toyota stop building here, it’s likely a lot of those businesses will fold. And then tetris becomes dominoes.
Acceptance – it’s inevitable and we’re at peace with it
Life goes on, and the future belongs to others. Acceptance is often strengthened by helping make provision for your descendants.
Kubler-Ross cautions that you might not go through all five grief stages or might go through them in a different order. And be warned that somebody near you might get stuck in the denial, anger or depression stage, sobbing hysterically and losing perspective. Give them support, buy them a drink, take them for a spin in a small car… they’ll move on.
Oh, and the handful of family members born and bred here request mourners at the funeral to not send flowers. Instead, you can keep making donations to the government’s Medicar system that—while flawed—is still crucial to keeping the industry healthy.
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