The shock defeat of the Brumby state government last weekend has unleashed the usual muttering within the ALP about how to shore-up a crumbling base.

Already, some Labor MPs - let’s call them the GOM or “grumpy old men’’ - reckon they have it pegged. Too much focus on the inner-city elites at the expense of the majority, the ordinary folk in middle and outer-suburbs. That’s their message: Labor should concern itself exclusively with bread and butter issues such as relieving cost of living pressures for ``ordinary’’ families. Nothing else.
Analytically speaking, this ‘government-out-of-touch’ critique is a soft target. Self evidently, if you lose, you were not in tune with voters. But it is rarely that simple and ignores the fact that in this instance that Labor was asking for another four years to add to its existing eleven in office. History shows this is almost always a bridge too far.
But the idea that governments should stay away from any reforms or policies that do not directly benefit the normally disengaged middle majority, is a recipe for witheringly small horizons.
Basically it says that any change that does not spontaneously fly in the suburbs, should be ruled out. It is a curious stance for a social democratic party to adopt. Imagine if Gough Whitlam, had decided there was no case for land rights or other social reforms because, for example, any minorities involved were just that, minorities. Or if Bob Hawke and Paul Keating had concluded that economic reforms (yes, the same ones Labor now cites as the foundations of the current miracle economy) were inappropriate because ordinary folk would have had their noses out of joint in the short-term?
In any event, this argument is being put right now regarding Victoria not as a contribution to the historical record but as Trojan horse for looming gripes at the federal level. The chief irritant is the return of the gay marriage debate but there is a general resentment of the resurgent left too.
Warning flags are being waved inside Labor that the minority Gillard Government is in danger of becoming slave to the far-left agenda of the Greens. These flag wavers caution that Greens policies might win plaudits from tertiary educated inner-city types but they are electoral poison further out from the CBD. And they say that in her endeavour to maintain parliamentary stability Ms Gillard risks going too far to accommodate the Greens’ inherently boutique manifesto.
“There’s a feeling that she sees more of them, that she spends more time on them, than she does with her own backbench,’’ one figure griped to a colleague. If nothing else, this suggests it is not just voters who have denied Ms Gillard a honeymoon. Worse, it suggests even some Labor MPs are yet to grasp the reality of minority government.
Even so, it is beyond dispute that since the election, the Greens have made their leverage count. Sure, their sole lower house MP, Adam Bandt, would be the first number added to Labor’s column in a no confidence motion, but the party’s uber-experienced leader, Bob Brown, extracted a high price including: a parliamentary climate change committee; a parliamentary debate on Afghanistan; dedicated time for debating and voting on private members’ bills; Greens access to Treasury for policy costing and advice; and a referendum on recognising Indigenous Australians. All have either been delivered or are in the pipeline.
These concessions raised eyebrows amongst GOM at the time, but they kept schtum. Now however, their acquiescence is under new strain particularly because within just months of the deal, even things rejected by Ms Gillard have crept on to her to-do list. Notably, a carbon price, which is now a priority for 2011, and what looks like a path at least towards the possible legalisation of gay marriage.
To the GOM the carbon price reversal is bad enough. It leaves Labor vulnerable to Tony Abbott’s effective ``big new tax on everything’’ campaign which is why he’s out there warning that household electricity prices would double with a carbon price of $40 per tonne. Along with Abbott, the GOM believe environmentalists would happily shut down every coal-fired power station and coal mine in the country, if they had the chance with no regard for the thousands made jobless or the impact on suburban family budgets.
But it’s the Greens’ social agenda on issues like gay marriage that has the GOM most riled.
While Ms Gillard has given that issue no personal impetus, and even reassured conservatives that she will uphold current ALP policy, they note that she has also brought forward National Conference to late next year. A spirited fight looms and most in the party believe the unmarried Ms Gillard, a former Left-faction champion, is as personally relaxed about gay marriage as the next man, woman, or transgender.
It is in this context that the GOM refloated nuclear power this week. It was their Crocodile Dundee moment: you call that a debate, you think gay marriage would be a difficult pill to swallow? Try this on!
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