The next 24 hours are critical for the bitterly divided Liberal Party. The Punch’s Tory Maguire is in Canberra and the team will be posting updates here through the day. Times are AEDT. Refresh this page for updates.
7.21pm: If he is elected as leader tomorrow, Abbott will ask for the ETS to be deferred, and if not deferred, rejected. “The party has a clear choice. It can vote for Malcolm and we will support the legislation. It can vote for me and we will reject the legislation. Or they can vote for Joe and we’ll have a conscience vote”.
7.19pm: Tony Abbott says he’s spent most of the day in discussions with Joe, says…
“It now seems pretty clear we could change the leader to Joe and these offensive bills could still go through the parliament. I will be a candidate for the leadership tomorrow.”
7.17pm: Ian “Macca” Macfarlane says he’s in the dark - “they’re not telling me anything”
7pm: Nick Minchin has just released this statement:
Speculation tonight by Laurie Oakes on Channel 9 news that I support the proposition that Labor’s CPRS Bill pass through the Senate upon a change of leadership are inaccurate. I continue to support the proposition that the Bill should be referred to a Senate Inquiry, to report back after the Copenhagen conference.
6.35pm: ABC news reporting the deal to install Hockey as leader includes Liberal Senators being allowed a conscience vote on the ETS, meaning it would pass. But David Speers at Sky says it’s being discussed, no decision yet.
6.10pm: Nine’s Laurie Oakes says there’s mutterings Nick Minchin may agree to pass the ETS tomorrow once Turnbull is gone as leader.
5.52am: Back in the Senate - 70 amendments done, only 140 to go. By the time it’s complete Parliament House could have ocean views.
5.45pm: Now reported Family First Senator Steve Fielding is in Joe Hockey’s office with Mr Hockey, Nick Minchin and Peter Dutton - discussing the Royal Commission? Probably not.
4:59pm: AAP reports key figures from the left and right are meeting to sort things out before tomorrow’s meeting. Meeting in Joe Hockey’s office reportedly includes: Federal Liberal Party director Brian Loughnane, and MPs Greg Hunt, Christopher Pyne, Andrew Robb, Nick Minchin, Julie Bishop, Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton.
4.49pm: Bronwyn Bishop writes for The Punch: Malcolm, we want the leadership back please.
4.40pm: Audio of Turnbull’s press conference live now, courtesy of Sky News. Listen here.
3.49pm: Reports on Turnbull’s doorstop at The Australian, The Age, and The Daily Telegraph. From Malcolm Farr at the Tele:
Mr Turnbull was careful in how he explained the outcome of his leadership meeting with Mr Hockey this afternoon.
He said: “He (Mr Hockey) said he would support me in the spill movement. He said he would vote against the spill.”
3.46pm: Steve Fielding walked into the media scrum immediately after Turnbull had finished speaking and called for a Royal Commission into climate science. Seriously.
3.37pm: Recap: Turnbull says Hockey has assured him of his support in a vote on a leadership spill in the partyroom tomorrow morning. If the partyroom votes to declare the leadership vacant, then Turnbull says he will stand for re-election. It is still unclear if Hockey will run against Turnbull but he is widely expected to.
A strong line of argument Hockey could use is that with Turnbull’s leadership doomed, it is Hockey’s duty as a committed moderate to run against right-winger Tony Abbott.
3.36pm: From Turnbull:
Joe came to see me for a chat.
We actually had a meeting on the weekend that didn’t make it into the press because neither of us rang up a journalist beforehand.
Joe and I are very good friends.
3.31pm: Photo from Turnbull’s doorstop. The big guns are there.
3.29pm: Turnbull says Hockey has assured him he will support him in a vote on whether to have a spill. However, Hockey is likely run against him if the partyroom votes to spill the leadership.
3.27pm: I am the leader, and I will be standing tomorrow - Turnbull
3.24pm: Waiting for Malcolm:
3.22pm: No TV? Sky News will be streaming the Turnbull doorstop here.
3.15pm: Malcolm Turnbull will speak to the media at 3.25pm. ABC Online is reporting Hockey has told Turnbull it is his intention to run for the Liberal leadership - adding Hockey is getting More here.
2.57pm: AAP reports Liberal Party director Brian Loughnane has just finished a long meeting with Joe Hockey.
2.51pm: Meanwhile back in the Senate - Bob Brown is still talking…
2.48pm: Sam Maiden has another update on The Australian here.
“Can you leave Lucy and I alone now. If you want to know what Joe Hockey is doing ask Joe Hockey,” Mr Turnbull said as he exited the building.
2.42pm: When the going gets tough, the tough go to lunch - Turnbull’s office confirms he has gone out for a bite to eat.
2.39pm: Spill movies ... Tweeters are suggesting names for movies about the spill. Great suggestions include Crouching Abbott, Hidden Hockey, The Day the Earth Stood Spill, and Honey I Shrunk The Liberal Party. Some people are having trouble with the link - to see the thread, go to Twitter Search and type the word “spillmovies” in the search field.
2.37pm: Another photo of Turnbull leaving Parliament House, driven by wife Lucy.
2.29pm: Peter Lewis of Essential Media has filed polling analysis for The Punch. Excerpt:
The polling confirms what we all supected – the nation is over Malcolm Turnbull, it can’t abide Tony Abbott and it doesn’t really know who Julie Bishop or Andrew Robb are.
2.23pm: AAP quotes Malcolm Turnbull as saying “nothing has changed” before he left Parliament House.
2.12pm: The Hockey-Turnbull meeting “did not end well”, according to David Speers. Meanwhile, Scott Morrison MP has tweeted he “is in the Parliamentary chamber where it is very quiet”.
2.03pm: Lucy Turnbull has just driven Malcolm Turnbull out of the building in a BMW. And here’s a photo:
1.59pm: Ninemsn has video of Joe Hockey returning to his office after speaking with Turnbull today. Screengrab below - you can watch it here.
1.43pm: George Brandis - not happy.
1.40pm: Barnaby Joyce strolls past and says: “I think I’ve had enough of this, I’m going to sort it out!” Just to be clear - I think he might have been joking.
1.36pm: New audio from Sky - Helen McCabe speaks to Glenn Milne, Piers Akerman, and Steve Price about the Liberal crisis. Listen here.
1.35pm: Movement at the station? Security guards getting less and less friendly…
1.32pm: Update from Malcolm Farr at The Daily Telegraph:
Mr Hockey could have to compromise his support for an ETS were he to take a shot at the leadership, or he would lose the support of the right.
1.29pm: Updated news story from Samantha Maiden at The Australian here.
1:20pm: Stressed-looking Turnbull press staffer Lis Davies ducking back into the office.
1.10pm: What Australia is tweeting - a screengrab of from trendsmap.com, which looks at topics being discussed on Twitter by geographic location. See it for yourself here.
1.09pm: Maybe he was at Aussies the whole time having a latte.
1.05pm: Apparently Hockey has evaded us all and is back in his office. How can you miss Joe Hockey?
12.59pm: The Punch, suffering insecurity about which press camp will win, is hedging bets and alternating between the two.
12.58pm: The waiting game ... one miserable press camp, sitting under a tree:
12.53pm: Oh dear. The internet has gotten hold of the story. See this graphic. The last photo references the seal with a bucket meme.
12.48pm: Journos told “either move voluntarily or the security guards will assist you in moving on”. Now outside and its bloody cold.
12.44pm: Tony Abbott speaks to reporters: “There will be a spill tomorrow, but Joe Hockey is a big boy, he can speak for himself.”
And here’s a picture:
12.39pm: Some hacks being harboured in Warren Truss’s office nearby. Seeking protection from patrolling Parly House guards.
12.37pm: Now two camps, one at either exit, eyeing each other nervously…
12.34pm: Spotted, sports minister strolling past scrum looking like she’s stepped straight out of a Portmans ad. Jeans, thongs, pony tail, grin.
12.31pm: Two exits from Turnbull’s office. Hilarious scenes as press pack debates which one Hockey will use…
12.31pm: A harried-looking Lib director Brian Loughnane striding past Turnbull’s office.
12.29pm: Sam Maiden at The Australian has an update on developments here. Excerpt:
Joe Hockey is holding a meeting with Liberal Party leader Malcolm Turnbull, having walked into his office immediately after holding talks with a trio of party powerbrokers including Nick Minchin.
12.25pm: Pic just in - the scene outside Turnbull’s office in Parliament House.
12.18pm: And the other reported visit: Tony Abbott is in Julie Bishop’s office.
12.14pm: Joe Hockey has just gone into Malcolm Turnbull’s office.
12.13pm: Strange times in Parliament House - it’s nearly lunch time and Aussies is almost deserted.
12.09pm: New video of Alexander Downer sharing his views on the malaise in the Liberal Party. You can read his piece for today’s Advertiser here.
11.59am: Steve Fielding says he has held a Family First partyroom meeting to discuss with “me, myself and I” the possibility of wooing climate change sceptics to his party. “We’re going to discuss accepting disinfected (sic) members from Labor and Liberal whether they want to join Family First,” Fielding said.
11.33am: Hockey should expect a baptism of fire if he winds up leader. Stephen Smith just said if Hockey does become leader, and the ETS is delayed beyond Copenhagen “that will be Mr Hockey’s first sell-out to the climate change deniers.”
11.16am: Queensland Liberal Senator Ian Macdonald now making a long-winded complaint about the Government wasting time in the Senate.
11.13am: On another matter altogether, Foreign Minister Stephen Smith has announced the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) will be held in Perth in 2011. Julie Bishop, another West Australian, was briefly overcome with bi-partisan excitement in the House of Reps.
11.10am: Victory for those Senators who don’t want to be debating at 4 o’clock tomorrow morning. The Senate will rise at 10pm and resume in the morning.
11.07am: For some light relief, check out Fake Steve Fielding on Twitter.
11am: Just thinking Kevin Rudd must be so cheesed off he’s in the US meeting Barack Obama instead of here waiting with the rest of us for The Senate to decide what time to take a lunch break. Poor PM.
10.43am: Penny Wong telling the Senate the Liberals are just stalling for time by arguing over procedure. They’ve been at it for an hour now - arguing over whether to sit through the night.
10.35am: Nick Xenophon quoting sleep experts, who say being awake more than 18 hours can induce similar effects to intoxication - not a good state to debate such important legislation says the South Australian Independent.
10.28am: The Senate is currently absorbed in a stoush over the sitting hours. Bob Brown wants the debate cut off at 10pm tonight, to resume tomorrow. The Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce has just called the ALP “mercenary, belligerent and arrogant.”
10.25am: Things are getting hot under the collar in the Senate. Labor’s Chris Evans has just roared across the chamber at Nick Minchin: “Your treachery has been on display all week”. Fellow tragics can watch the Senate debate here.
10.20am: Annabel Crabb has filed her first column for the ABC, in which she compares Turnbull to a suicide bomber.
9.56am: Audio of the AM Agenda program from Sky News, with guests Steve Ciobo, Martin O’Shannessy from Newspoll and former ALP secretary Tim Gartrell live now. Listen.
9.38am: Former Foreign Minister, and self-confessed once disastrous leader of the Opposition, Alexander Downer has just told 3AW on Turnbull’s leadership: “You’re not just the leader of the people who agree with you.”
9.37am: Double dissolution chatter. Former ALP secretary Tim Gartrell was on Sky News this morning. Samantha Maiden wraps up what he said here at The Australian: KEVIN Rudd’s chief strategist at the 2007 election says there is a “buzz” around a possible early poll and believes the PM is open to the idea. More here.
9.27am: Former Lib leader John Hewson on ABC TV says Hockey is in danger of terminating his political career early if he chooses to contest a leadership ballot tomorrow. He accused the Lib rebels of “gross disloyalty in normal terms.”
9.09am: David Speers of Sky News says on Twitter: Interesting theory doing Liberal rounds: Turnbull loses, quits, creates new party targeting around 25 marginal Liberal seats!
9.05am: And another. Ian “Macca” Macfarlane said: “I’ll be supporting Malcolm Turnbull.”
9.01am: At least someone likes him. Family First Senator Steve Fielding had some praise for Turnbull this morning. “At least he’s had the honour to be consistent pretty well all the way through,” he told reporters in Canberra. “What did the coalition expect when they gave a green light a couple of months ago? ... That was wrong.”
8.48am: “The Senate has a mind of its own and it’d be a brave person to predict what would happen,” Mitch Fifield said on ABC TV.
8.38am: Links to key news and commentary from today’s papers are here. And if you missed it, Malcolm Turnbull’s piece for The Punch from Friday evening has over 250 comments on it and counting.
8.23am: Tony Abbott says he’s “certainly not over-confident” about prising the leadership from Malcolm Turnbull. “No responsible opposition can let a scheme like this get through the Senate without much greater scrutiny,” he said.
The government is now talking of a possible all-night sitting of the Senate in an attempt to force a vote on the ETS before tomorrow’s Liberal leadership spill. Greens leader Bob Brown is opposed to an all-night session.
8.11am: Penny Wong on AM. “If Mr Hockey now supports delaying [the ETS], by his own words he is betraying the national interest.” Pressed on whether a double dissolution would be the only way to secure passage of the legislation, the Climate Change Minister could only say it was in the hands of the Liberal Party.
7.54am: Early online poll results from The Daily Telegraph:
Will update this later. See the story and cast your vote here.
7.17am: Peter van Onselen on ABC radio says Turnbull has created campaign fodder for the government. In his column today in The Australian van Onselen said Turnbull would “go down in history as one of the worst Liberal leaders since the party was formed in 1944”. Asked what the ETS position will be if Hockey becomes leader, he says: “Who knows?”
6.55am: It’s a Downer… He was once leader of the party and an ally of Howard’s - and he’s a South Australian Liberal, so Alexander Downer is well positioned to comment on the challenges facing the party. Here’s an excerpt of what he has to say today:
So as the Liberals go into this week and make a decision about their leadership, they face two excruciating dilemmas. The first is to decide whether to vote for an emissions trading scheme and try to use that as a launching pad for a new green image, or alternatively to vote down a scheme which will cost the Australian economy $120 billion with no assurance other countries will make a commensurate contribution to climate change policy.
The second dilemma is whether to ditch an able, successful Australian as their leader and take a punt on a third leader in two years, hoping that the new leader will be able to run a massive negative campaign against the emissions trading scheme between now and polling day.
Read more from Downer on the Liberal crisis here.
6.17am: Poll roundup. Newspoll shows a collapse in support for Turnbull on the preferred PM question - he’s now at 14 points, down from 22. Labor leads the Coalition in the two-party preferred vote by 57-43. Read it here.
Nielsen, meanwhile, reports Hockey is preferred Liberal leader by 36 per cent, over Turnbull at 32 per cent and Tony Abbot at 20 per cent. The poll also finds two-thirds of voters want Australia to have an emissions trading scheme. Read it here.
6.08am: National Party federal director Brad Henderson tells AM a previous trickle of anti-ETS correspondence has now turned into a torrent, with the party has receiving thousands of emails from people saying they are opposed to the scheme, supporting the Nats’ position.
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