The Australian public’s reaction to last week’s execution of their Prime Minister came in two courses. The first: “Don’t break the eggs!”  The second: “Nice omelette!”

Ruthless tactics but a pretty popular result. Photo: Getty Images

By chance, I was observing focus groups on the night Rudd was rolled and the general feeling was one of surprise, anger, even outage, “it’s our job to throw out a leader, not their’s”, a sense that something fundamentally undemocratic was occurring. 

But more remarkable than this emotional reaction, was the fact that it was so fleeting, having vented people who ready to move on and embrace our first female Prime Minister.

This strange dynamic is backed in this week’s Essential Report, which finds 40 per cent of voters disapprove of the takeover, yet finds just 24 per cent say they are less likely to vote Labor because of it.

Source: Essential Media     

In fact, as with all the major polls it appears the removal of Kevin Rudd has increased Labor ‘s primary vote and improved its two party preferred status. So is it a case of mock outrage or pure complacency that drives these competing responses?

I think it actually speaks to something more profound -  a deep confusion in our political system, a Parliamentary democracy that masquerades as Presidential politics.

On the one hand we elect local representatives who in turn elect their Parliamentary leader. But come election time, it is the leader that defines the Party, with their personal stories and cheesy grins taking centre stage.

On one level there is something brutally honest about a political Party asserting their right to take the most popular leader to headline for them at election time – after all its their jobs on the line.

The problem lies in the double message they are sending the public; that ‘Kevin 07’ is our guy and we are his team, but we will neck him if we have to.

The alternate approach would be to go the whole hog and give the people a say in who should be their leader in a more structured way than opinion polling. The US system of primaries allows all registered voters to endorse the candidate a major party takes to an election, meaning candidates have to prove their appeal to their base before they go to the masses. Even incumbents are open to challenge.

Of course there are downsides - the cost of US elections means only the rich or highly organised can play and the process takes time and energy.

But it does give people a greater say in who their leaders are and forces any would be leader to earn the mantle, not just do the deal. And as our numbers show - if this had been the case last week there is little doubt we would still be celebrating our first female Prime Minister come election day.

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    • Richard says:

      06:31am | 29/06/10

      Yeah it does seem to be coalition voters who take the most umbrage against Rudd being deposed, I guess because its a contigency they feared. They shouldn’t fear it though: in truth, the sizable but quiet christian block of voters do have quite an effect at the end of the day, and Gillard must tread very carefully to avoid polarizing them with her (supposedly) progressive ethics. On the positive side, at least she’s managed to reclaim a large chunk of the left-wing green primary vote.

      Kevin Rudd was still a much safer choice to take to an election, but Labor’s whole election strategy now seems to be about demonising Rudd and distancing themselves from his regime’s failures~ trying persuade us all that they’re different now under Gillard. It would be a very gullible voter who swallows that line though, seeing as the ministry has hardly changed bar Crean’s promotion.

      With regard to the US-style primary voting, didn’t the Nats recently try something similar in NSW over the weekend? It was apparently quiet successful by all accounts, with a voter turnout of over 4000!

    • Phil says:

      08:03am | 29/06/10

      Richard I agree with your comments almost entirely. I have said on this site for a while, that Gillard would do a better job than her boss. She clearly has a way of getting some things done that he simply could not.

      That being said, once the honeymoon dies down, people will look at the way she got there, simply put there by unfaced union men, rather than at a general election. I dont believe this gives any positives for women at all.

      Her progressive lifestyle, whilst endearing to some, along with her atheism will turn off Christian Jewish and Muslim voters. Not all but certainly some. I put the percentage at 4-5% of the vote in a discussion with a friend the other day. This point will also pick her up votes from those who think Abbott is too Catholic and may sway a few percent back.

      Given the weekend polls, and every online poll late last week and again on this site only just now, showing Gillard 46/54 that she cannot lead labor to viictory, I doubt it will be the walk up start the faceless men in Sussex Street think.

      She was after all right beind Rudd up till she knifed him.

      Peter, did you not say Tony Abbott was unelectable only last week. Were you not stating that Rudd was basically best to lkead the country.
      Why would you not at least put an atricle up stating that you were wrong and the reasons behind, try to justify this? Just a thought.

    • mags says:

      08:38am | 29/06/10

      I also found it interesting that every online poll had Tony Abbott getting votes of 2:1 with Gillard. While I know that they are not an absolutely true measure, it seems strange that the Galaxy poll of just 800 people should give the Labor Party cause for joy. Had the poll been of 800 perstate it would have perhaps given a clearer picture of the state of play. Also, the allocating of Green preferences is no sure thing, seeing that their overall polularity is declining.

      However people like Bill Shorten like to spin it, the voting public is not as stupid as they think. I beleive that this will be one of the most hotly contested elections we have seen for years. Hooray!

    • Peter says:

      09:56am | 29/06/10

      Just to prove online polls don’t mean much, I watched the Drum’s online poll and in 13,000 online votes the poll never changed once! from the moment the poll was opened it claimed Yes 53% No 47%. The question was - “would you vote for Gillard at the next election?” For 2 1/2 days, and almost 13,000 online votes it stayed exactly the same Yes 53% No 47%.

    • BobM says:

      11:47am | 29/06/10

      @Peter - 3 day SMH online Poll. Results also didn’t vary much over the 3 days.  Makes you wonder where this ‘Landslide Victory” for Julia Gillard is going to come from….

      Poll closed 28 Jun, 2010 Are you more likely to vote Labor with Julia Gillard as leader?
      Yes 42%
      No   58%
      Total votes: 150258.

    • Henry says:

      07:03pm | 29/06/10

      I find it a bit strange that almost “all” online polls show the complete opposite to the polls reported in the MSM? I think the media might be getting a little over excited about Julia and these so called polls? Not sure who they are polling, maybe people living in Barry, Wales?

    • Shane From Melbourne says:

      08:15pm | 29/06/10

      As before, I’ve said that these polls are crap until both Abbott and Gillard release detailed policies in the lead up to the election. It doesn’t matter what has gone before, who is leading who and by what margin.

    • Paul says:

      06:37am | 29/06/10

      Nice try at a save after last week’s post.

    • Joan says:

      07:37am | 29/06/10

      The disgraceful removal of elected PM Rudd is a good reason why the only Republic for Australia is one with President elected by the people. In the meantime since everyone in Labor says we vote for the party not the PM- could Julia appear with a bag on her head marked Labor - that`s what she believes-  the people vote for the party not the leader .

    • iansand says:

      08:40am | 29/06/10

      At least the ALP managed to get the right person in after their coup.  Unlike the Liberals’ most recent effort.

    • T.Chong says:

      08:54am | 29/06/10

      Dear Joan - its lack of knowledge about how our parliamentry system actually works, that seems to cause a great deal of confusion for people like your good self.
      I am being presumptuos here, I know, but good chances you dont live in Rudds electorate, correct?, so therefore,you, and everyone outside his electorate couldnt   vote for him.
      Wernt you a little confused when you realised that?
      PS Right Punchers, could someone please post the election ballot that has Abbotts name on it for Opposition leader. - afterall, who voted him in ? It wasnt the public, it was backroom number crunchers, EXACTLY the same machinations as the ALP.

    • Jacob M says:

      10:34am | 29/06/10

      Joan that,s a bit rich coming from a Liberal supporter, The Liberals tried hard to bring Rudd down and Tony Abbott is crowing he got the scalp of a Prime Minister. The Liberals are now trying anything to undo the damage they have done..too late Labor will win

    • Joan says:

      11:23am | 29/06/10

      Yeah its all Abbotts, Liberal fault - hey guys I`m no sucker - the knife was in Gillards hand she`s the girl who said ~ Great day for redheads`  she didn’t say Great day for democracy

    • Adam Diver says:

      09:18pm | 29/06/10

      Is this the same T Chong who has talked up Rudd so many times. From now on you may only refer to the labor party and must never speak directly of any politicians outside your electorate.

      And please don’t use the Abbott situation as your “excuse” for Labor. Firstly liberal are in oppossiton (not that labor has ever changed opposition leader before which no one cared about). Second, Abbott is goiong to contest the election so we the voters get to have a say whether or not he becomes PM. Thirdly if it doesn’t matter that the leader of the party should change mid-term, than there is no need to point out the Abbott situation, self incriminating much?

      Lastly and most importantly the Liberals lost an election because they didn’t change leaders and people were simply sick of the prime minister and in need for change (and work choices etc). But if you are looking for a comparitive situation look no further then Howard/Costello and the labor advertisement targetting whether or not we would have the same leader for the whole term. Hypocritical much. Enjoy your humble pie.

    • Hantok says:

      05:34pm | 01/07/10

      T.Chong

      You are right on a technicality but not so right on the reality on how people vote, or how the parties campaign.
      If what you are saying is the only truth then why do the parties spend so much time and money during campaigns promoting their leaders/choice of PM so strongly at the national level?
      Why do their leaders/choice of PM bother to appear beside their local candidates if not to say “vote for this person and you’ll get this PM’?
      The reality is that our choice of local rep and our PM are intrinsically connected.
      I for one would not vote on a local rep, no matter how good he/she is if that party’s victory meant we would have an evidently bad PM nationally.

    • Wayne Fehlhaber says:

      08:24am | 29/06/10

      Why on earth would we change from the current system . ?
      When we go to the polls and vote federally , we know in advance who leads the major parties and we have a choice of the prospective P.M. from Liberal or Labor .  In effect , we actually do vote for our P.M. by placing a primary vote in the ballot box.

    • Aitch B says:

      08:30am | 29/06/10

      Shorten’s pushed the “in the interests of the country” line on Q&A last night when questioned on Rudd’s dismissal - which is what it was.

      What a load of garbage!! It was in the interests of the ALP and their tenure on government and nothing else!!

    • Bruce says:

      09:52am | 29/06/10

      Aitch B: Agree. Its all about staying in government, no matter what the cost. If it takes a “smiley face’ or the womans touch, you do what you have to do to stay in power. I have yet to see any politician who is truely ultruistic.

    • Evan Findlay says:

      10:13am | 29/06/10

      Aitch B.
      If it keeps Abbott and his draconian repertoire out of government then it is in the interest of the country.

    • Joe says:

      08:36am | 29/06/10

      The Sydney/melbourne centric media usually ignore qld, but up here many people are very angry that our Qlder Rudd has been dumped. Remember Qld cares so much more about state of origin than states like nsw who simply assume everything happens in nsw. The polling showed more peole favoured mainstream Rudd and his ego over Gillard and her hard left ways and no family life.

    • Holly says:

      08:54am | 29/06/10

      I am getting totally sick of all this.  For goodness sake if you are going to conduct online polls make the question statistically valid.  I thought once Kevin Rudd had gone the media would be delighted at their own hatchet job and we could perhaps even up the coverage by focusing more on the coalition.  After all the recent coalition improvement in the polls was not a result of anything they had actually done.  During the weekend they launched their action plan for re election.  Where is the analysis and commentary on this.  It has gone completely under the radar which is probably to their benefit because it is a very disappointing document.

    • Andy says:

      09:01am | 29/06/10

      As usual Peter Lewis insults the intelligence of the readers of The Punch by pretending to be a neutral pollster when anyone who even scratches the surface just a bit can clearly see Essential Media is run by ex-union hacks on behalf of the Labor party to pump out party propaganda veiled as honest research.

      The idea of a directly elected leader for Australia is ludicrous, it would just lead to even more ‘personal popularity politics’, which is the last thing we need. The system we have works, this was proven last week, we elect a party to run the country and they provide a leader from within that party.

    • Tails says:

      09:55am | 29/06/10

      I’m confused. Does Julia have short hair or long hair?

    • Rosie says:

      11:38am | 29/06/10

      Tony A’butt

      I bet you said the same thing when Kevin Rudd as leader of the Labour Party was contesting the last Elections! Good Luck it will a be a historic day for Australian’s if a red hair, childless, unwed female enters the Lodge with her boyfriend!

      I for one am a staunch liberal voter because I do not believe in ripping off hard working Australians to give to those that do not take responsibility for their well-being! Also I do not rely on any government handouts and expect my taxes to be used wisely for a better Australia now and for future generations.

    • Chris L says:

      07:28pm | 30/06/10

      Wow Rosie. Not only do you manage to tag your response to the wrong post, but you manage to reveal an ignorant, intolerant and extremely biased personality. What’s wrong with being childless, or unwed, or having red hair, or having a boyfriend?

    • Tony A'butt says:

      10:09am | 29/06/10

      One thing for sure I am not voting Liberal Coalition.

    • Rosie says:

      10:44am | 29/06/10

      Polls! Polls! Polls! Oh yes I forgot Gillard & the Union Powers were spooked about the “Polling Results” so assassinated Australia’s elected PM, their leader because the Govt was losing its way!

      How absurd? It gets worse, now even though the dead political corspe of Australia’s elected PM is lying somewhere, Gillard is saying she will be absolutely delighted to have him in her cabinet if she wins the elections! Yet again she undermines our intelligence because if that is the case why doesn’t she revive the dead corpse and give him a portfolio now before the elections and why keep Tanner on when he has resigned?  “OH YES WAITING FOR POLLING RESULTS” BRING BACK THE GREAT MINNING ADVERTS!

    • Vicki PS says:

      11:55pm | 29/06/10

      Those who forget history are condemned to repeat it, Rosie.  I hate to disillusion staunch conservatives such as your goodself and the other silvertail supporters, but Robert Menzies, Pig Iron Bob himself, was booted out of the PM’s office by his own party back in 1941.  Fast forward 30 years, and John Gorton effectively voted himself out of office when he faced a tied vote of confidence by his Cabinet colleagues. (His replacement, William McMahon, could hardly be said to have been an improvement).

      Sadly, you have to face the fact that the conservative parties in this country take the gong for establishing the Parliamentary democratic practice of giving so-called “elected PMs” the boot.  Dare I say hypocritical?  Glass houses?  Bloody great stones?

    • Carl Palmer says:

      11:16am | 29/06/10

      Happy with the way the system is. Party has every right to depose or dispose of their leaders – most of the time driven by public opinion. I’m sure the folks out there know that they vote for their local member and not the leader.

    • CJ says:

      11:26am | 29/06/10

      Sure people are right to be pissed off that Rudd got the shaft the way he did, but the key here is that there was an excellent replacement for him. Unlike the coalition scrapping the bottom of the barrel with Brendan then Malcolm and now Tony, I’m sure few people belonging to Labor’s “base” would have any issue with her taking over.

    • Jenni says:

      02:17pm | 29/06/10

      Regardless of which electorate you live in, many people do base their decision regarding which party to vote for on the person leading that party - their policies, personal views, etc. As a consequence, this has a direct impact on which party gets into office - had Gillard been leading in 2007, perhaps Liberal might have won the election. It is for this reason that I am uncomfortable having a PM who was appointed, not elected.

      If Gillard wins office at the next election - hopefully sooner rather than later - then good on her, she will have earned it.

      For the record, I also would like to see less focus (preferably zero) on the fact she is a woman - I personally couldn’t give a rat’s ass if our PM is male/femal, gay/straight, married/single, etc etc ... I merely want the best person for the job, and I truly hope our next PM is elected on the basis of their suitability for the job, and not whether their reproductive organs are on the inside or the outside.

      People who will vote for Gillard purely because she is a woman are no better than those will will *not* vote for her because she is a woman. Either way, you’re basing your vote on gender, not policy.

    • Gran Depine says:

      03:06pm | 29/06/10

      A very simple attack strategy will win the next election against the ALP. All you have to do is tell the Miners that a vote for Liberal is a no vote for super tax…100% guarantee. Continue the TV advertising campaign, this time with $200million dollars worth of advertising against the ALP. Include BER, insulation F%$# up, examples showing how ETS in Spain is a huge economic disaster, most importantly display no leadership when the ALP Government doesn’t know how to lead, budget, audit and democratically allow independent investigation of the failed BER without threatening School Principals or staff from commenting on the failed administration of the BER. If the Miners don’t want to put in the bill for the advertising, then rally as many concerned citizens to donate to an advertising campaign and rally/lobby with the catch cry “False political statements and unfulfilled policymakers must be punishemnet ” from today until the end of the proposed election.

    • Tim says:

      04:37pm | 29/06/10

      I’m sorry Peter, aren’t you the genius who was producing polls last week as to why it wouldn’t matter if Rudd was dumped? About a day or two before he got shafted as I recall. You used the same source for your poll data too.

      Now you come up with data to tell us why everything is now roses for the Labor party. Nary a mention of last weeks travesty.

      You will forgive me if I find your credibility to be shot, even when I ignore the obvious Labor bias from the architect of the Workchoices scare campain.

    • Andrew76 says:

      04:53pm | 29/06/10

      If you had your arm twisted under WorkChoices or read some of the employment agreements flung around under this regime, you’d join me in congratulating PM Gillard on her rightful ascension to the top job.

      People like me who spent their whole working lives under the Coalition will forever respect the Ruddbot for smashing them so hard that even Howard lost his seat.

      (I understand the need for flexible wages in a globalised economy, but employers abused their privileges afforded to them by WorkChoices, and despite myself having moved on to a better bargaining position on pay and conditions, I won’t betray the next generation by supporting any government that encourages such laissez-faire HR policy).

      To her enormous credit, Ms Gillard did not showboat herself as the executioner of WorkChoices, and gave all that political capital to Rudd2-D2, who wasted it all through a lack of political and communicative skill.

      We ignored Rudd the Impaler’s shortcomings as a leader, and would’ve fought any moves against him out of misguided loyalty to the only PM we’ve genuinely supported.

      So, I thank the Labor caucus for avoiding an unneccessary and damaging brawl, and for showing us that we are a factionless, dangerous school of Piranha.

      I encourage this gleeful gang-bashing by feminists, conservatives, and Labor factionalists alike. It helps us decide whose political flesh to feed on at election time.

      The fact that the PM is a woman is a very significant benefit to all of us, and another item in a long list of good reasons for Labor to switch off K-3P0 ahead of the election.

    • Jason says:

      07:11pm | 29/06/10

      Forget Rudd2-D2, what about the Andrew76??

      The Labor faithful (an oxymoron indeed) didn’t have a bad word against Kevin at any stage.  It’s the miners fault, it’s Howard’s fault, blah blah blah.

      The polls turn nasty, out with the AK47 and thanks for coming.  Then his corpse hasn’t even cooled down and there’s loyal Andy76 laying the boots into him.  3 years from now and Joolya gets the boot for Swan.  “New man… new ideas…. rah rah rah”, I can hear Andy screaming with new found joy and excitement.

      As for the unneccesary brawl you jibber on about - it’s only because sobbing, blubbering Kevin is an old woman and will walk to the backbench with his tail between his legs, then lick his wounds like a pussy.  If it was someone with fight and ticker, the brawl would be on.  You know him well Andrew, you voted for him.

    • Richard says:

      08:08pm | 29/06/10

      The great lie that was sold to unsuspecting voters at the 2007 election was that the WorkChoices legislation, which increased their freedoms, empowered them to get the best deal for themselves and enabled them to negotiate with their employer in respect to their own individual circumstances, was actually bad for them! It was built up to be some disasterous and ghastly policy, yet most people (like your good self Andrew76) were actually better off!

      WorkChoices wasn’t bad for employees, it was bad for the Unions! It reduced their relevance and threatened their python-like suffocating grip on the productive part of our nation’s workforce: so they ran the great great grandmother of all scare campaigns to foist their self-interested views on all of us.

      Don’t get me wrong, this isn’t a que for all you rabid union hacks to froth at the mouth and resurrect the scare campaign again. Tony Abbott has always opposed WorkChoices, even as a cabinet minister in the previous government, and has no (stated) intention to implement any new I.R policies at all. And besides, I’m not convinced that fear is a particularly powerful motivator for Australian voters. We threw out the Howard government because after 11 years it was getting stale and we needed a change, not because we are timid little souls jumping at shadows and cowering before an all-powerful slave-driving dragon-boss.

      But the faceless union fatcats mistook our mandate to Kevin Rudd for the implementation of moderate-compassionate social reforms whilst still maintaining a strong economy for a blank cheque to begin their cold-blooded, behind-the-scenes political machinations and re-establish their dictatorial, undemocratic reign: and look where we are today. The only way for us make our voices heard again is to vote for a liberal government that will stand up for small business and restrict the influence of unions.

    • Sirro says:

      10:30pm | 29/06/10

      ALP factionless? You must be smoking drugs Andrew 76.
      Rudd was a disaster and you and your cronies know it. Gillard is clearly the better leader for the ALP.
      The way she got there ...well what do you expect from a party whose general desperation to maintain power means that any loyal member or even a Prime Minister is fair game.
      For the unions it is a simple equation. If Labor are not in power they are pretty much history. They have a dwindling supporter base and their access to funding drains away. With Labor in power they are able to pick up all the little lurks of the government paying their people to be staffers, advisors, consultants etc etc to keep chanelling the cash in their direction.
      Why else do you think the Unions stumped up 40 million for advertising in the last federal campaign.
      Julia is their girl and now the own her completely. To suggest otherwise is to kidd yourself.
      As for the polling from Peter Lewis ... who really cares. We already have Morgans, Newspoll and Galaxy which for all intents and purposes seem to be reasonably unbiased.  This stuff from Essential Media always seems to approach its questioning from a particular direction.
      And by the way .... the latest Morgan Poll has Abbott ahead again in pretty much all readings. Maybe their 800 people have seen the amount of make-up caked on Julia’s face the last few days and have decided that its actually hiding something pretty horrible.

    • Andrew76 says:

      10:17am | 30/06/10

      I smoke cigarettes but I do not take any illegal or prescription drugs. I meant that many Rudd supporters are factionless, not the ALP itself.

      Sirro: get off the cocaine and Oxycontin, and back into the real world, where there’s a couple of million politically homeless former Ruddbots whose votes are up for grabs. Unless you’re too busy maintaining the gender pay imbalance to line your own pockets.

      Jason: you seem to be an expert on faceless cowardice, while I openly criticise the only politician I’ve ever supported because I’m pissed off that he messed it up. Best wishes for your greasy branch-stacking and other “behind the scenes” activities in the future.

      I note that both of you have little else to offer the average working Australian than partisan bile, and I offer your own words as evidence.

      Richard: thank you, I guess I projected my own reasons for supporting Rudd for those of the wider community and I stand corrected.

      I’ll say it again: if you had your arm twisted under WorkChoices, you’d join me in congratulating Gillard on her rightful ascension to the top job.

    • Max Power says:

      10:55pm | 29/06/10

      Gillards effort with Industrial Relations is just awesome. She promised that no worker would be worse off under her new IR laws. Low and behold, yet another lie, with thousands of workers worse off under the new IR laws, despite her promise that no one would be. So there is another failure you can add to Gillards list.
      As for the line being peddled by the ALP supporters, that we vote for a party, not a leader, whilst true, is not really the case. ALP 07 wasn’t the slogan for the last election. I can’t speak for every electorate in the country, but the ones I happened to drive through, all had ALP signs with a photo of the local ALP candidate beside a photo of ALP 07, sorry Kevin 07.  I even received a mail out from the local ALP candidate which featured a picture of her with ALP 07, sorry Kevin 07. All the polls ask who is the preferred Prime Minister, and even now there are people saying that they will vote for Gillard, so whilst it is true we don’t vote for the PM, it is implied, even by the parties themselves.
      I remember when the Liberals had their leadership spill and Abbott took over, Gillard, Rudd, Swan and all the other Union controlled ALP hacks, said the Liberals were not fit to run the country cause they couldn’t run their own party. So by their own admission, the ALP are not fit to run the country, even if you ignore all the broken promises and failures of the ALP and Gillard.
      I think the major problem isn’t that Rudd was removed, it is the fact he was removed because Union power brokers commanded it.

    • uebernachtung guenstig in ostseebad zinnowitz buch says:

      10:22am | 02/12/10

      Revenue Low,drop forget equipment much answer strongly wine tax question cultural defendant context consumer career trial capacity institute bed buy mine example among northern disappear analysis by realise category addition east less offer than principle farmer company opportunity true broad invite pair immediately though day south steal theatre direct break second capacity aye child training comment imagine view box his right somewhere milk addition kill raise nobody competition music politics number stay order sufficient park appeal light volume next son behaviour economy fine factory scheme game sign foot writer bus land

 

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