They are reluctant to discuss it but Labor insiders see reasons for hope - however slight. One reason, surprisingly enough, is the polls. Obviously, they still show the Government facing a shellacking yet they also suggest that Labor’s poll dive may have bottomed out.

When its primary vote dipped below 30 per cent a few months back, it raised two very uncomfortable questions. Just how low could it go? And at what point would Julia Gillard’s leadership become untenable?
The answer to the first question may now be in - barring a double dip that is.
The nadir was a record-shattering 26 per cent according to Newspoll’s September 16 to 18 survey.
Nielsen’s SMH/Age poll charted a similar collapse dipping to the same disastrous number even earlier and remaining in that ballpark for the next three to four months as well.
The similarity of the polls has only added to their credibility, which is why now that all have shown a slight recovery, (Newspoll 29; Nielsen 30; Essential 32 and Galaxy 29 per cent) there is a feeling that the worst may have passed.
While Labor’s hardheads recognise it is too early to say a recovery is under way, they can point to macro-circumstances which might help.
Summit season is upon us, a series of high-profile international engagements at this time of year that should help Ms Gillard look more presidential - vital for a PM with an authority problem.
This year it has started with a bang, with the Queen and more than 50 international leaders here for the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting.
In recent days, Ms Gillard has shared the warmth around the monarch, whose popularity has grown despite (or perhaps because of) her not inconsiderable age.
The deference displayed by the republican Ms Gillard will have done her no harm in the eyes of voters.
CHOGM will be followed by a crucial G20 meeting in Cannes next week, at which Europe’s sovereign debt debacle will be front and centre.
With extremely low public debt, sound prudential regulation and super-profitable banks - to wit NAB’s 24 per cent profit hike announced just yesterday - Ms Gillard has a strong story to tell.
Then comes the annual APEC meeting involving the US, China, Russia and many others - this time in Hawaii ahead of a first visit to Australia by Barack Obama.
The charismatic first-term president is struggling at home with a gridlocked Congress but his star-power in Australia will leave previous presidential visits in the shade.
The two 50-year-old leaders have forged a solid friendship already which will be on display throughout the visit.
Such are the advantages of incumbency.
Beyond these events are other conditions which have at least stopped working against Labor.
Number one is this week’s good news on the inflation front. Economists are now tipping one and perhaps two 25-basis-point interest-rate cuts this year, beginning on Melbourne Cup Tuesday.
That would be welcome news for cash-strapped households, lift morale, provide a fillip for retailers and may even cool the dollar to the benefit of exporters.
Finally, there’s Tony Abbott’s promise to tear up any pokies reforms Labor manages to get through, if he wins office.
The pledge adds to the sense of uncertainty which is unhelpful but it has also pushed the Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie further into Labor’s arms.
The anti-pokies fanatic has threatened to withdraw his support for the Government if it fails to legislate his anti-pokies changes by mid next year.
But now that Mr Abbott has made clear his intent to unwind any reforms, Mr Wilkie cannot credibly do anything that would deliver Mr Abbott to power, since that would ensure their defeat.
In that sense, Mr Wilkie’s threat to pull his support for Ms Gillard if she fails to pass the bills seems even more ridiculous than before.
Even taken together however, these factors may not amount to much and you would far rather be in Mr Abbott’s position than that of the Government.
But in politics, as in sport, it helps to be kicking with the wind.
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