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Julia floods the forward line

David Penberthy

by David Penberthy

10 Aug 05:50am

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Filed under: Afl, Election 2010, Julia Gillard, Rodney Eade

20 comments

“Rocket” Rodney Eade would be proud of the tactics being used right on the siren by our Western Bulldogs-loving prime minister.

Right! I want youse all to get down the back with Julia. And stay there! Image: Channel Seven.

Eade, a former coach of the Sydney Swans and now at the helm with Julia Gillard’s club Footscray, was one of the football strategists of the late 80s and early 90s who pioneered the controversial tactic known as flooding.

The tactic works like this – if you’re narrowly in front with a few minutes to go, don’t take the risk of trying to score, rather get all of your forwards to play up back so that there’s 18 men “flooding” the opposition forward line to dominate possession.

It’s an ugly and negative brand of footy, one which was also practised Dennis Pagan at North Melbourne (hence the term “Pagan’s Paddock” for the vast expanses of nothingness which could often be found in the Kangaroos forward line in the final quarter). It was also continued by Paul Roos when he took over from Eade as Swans coach.

The tactic was condemned in 2005 by AFL chief Andrew Demetriou who said that the Swans’ determination to “win ugly” might snatch you a few games in the minor round but wouldn’t get you a premiership.

The (Sydney) Swans won their first premiership that same year. 

In politics right now, the flood is well and truly on. With the siren about to sound and the polls showing Labor is holding on by the skin of its teeth, a quick look at the seats where Julia Gillard has been campaigning shows that the ALP wants to hold on to what it’s got, and is not overly worried about scoring again.

Analysis in today’s News Limited papers by Sarah Martin shows that the past 12 seats Ms Gillard has visited have all been Labor-held, with the marginal seat of Canning in Western Australia finally breaking the pattern.

The Coalition seems to think that this is dirty pool. Tony Abbott has said that if Labor sneaks home by holding on to its seats it will be a “dishonourable victory”. It’s hard to see what will be particularly dishonourable about it; it will be no different from any other election result. Indeed the best recent parallel might end up being the 1990 poll where Bob Hawke’s increasingly unpopular Labor Government snuck home with the help of Green preferences, as the Andrew Peacocok-led Coalition won the popular vote but didn’t achieve a uniform swing across Labor-held marginals.

Which is why Julia Gillard has set up camp in Labor-held marginals.

It’s a point worth remembering when you’re watching the count on election night, when seats such as Bennelong, Roberston, Lindsay, Longman, Bowman, Eden-Monaro all start flashing up on the screen. If the flood has worked and Gillard has headed off any Coalition scoring opportunities, the ALP might win ugly and limp over the line.

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20 comments

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    • Tony of Poorakistan says:

      07:10am | 10/08/10

      This is also what got Mike Rann over the line in this year’s SA state election. Campaigning only in Labor held marginals, blatant pork-barreling in those seats and total disdain for everyone else, including loyal Labor seats.

      The result was a massive swing to Liberal in the safe Labor seats (but not enough to win them, a couple were held by 20-odd percent) and Rann managed to hold onto, from memory, all but one of the marginals.

      Thus, he formed government, despite gaining only 48% of the vote.

      Hard to say it is dirty pool, though, when the tactic is available to both parties. What it does mean, is that if you want anything done in your electorate, move to a marginal seat.

      Reply

    • Hazza says:

      10:27am | 10/08/10

      Tony, It’s also how Howard held on in 1998 when Beazley’s Labor won the popular vote but not the election. Swings both ways and I suspect Abbott’s complaining about it suggests he’s not confident of a win - despite Murdoch’s best efforts.

    • Anne71 says:

      12:26pm | 10/08/10

      Excellent point, @Hazza. I love how it’s only a Bad Thing when Labor does it. I assume that when the Libs do it, it’s just strategy.

    • Matt says:

      07:38am | 10/08/10

      It’s also pretty similar to the 98 election, where Howard pork-barrelled the Liberal-held marginals and got ver the line despite Kim Beazley winning the popular vote.

      Which meant we were stuck with Jackie Kelly for a few more years…

      Reply

    • iansand says:

      08:35am | 10/08/10

      You may not have noticed, but everybody targets the marginals.  I live in North Sydney.  Current political junk mail tally is 3 - 2 Hockey.  1 green.  And a couple of old chooks handing out Hockey flyers at Northbridge shopping centre last Saturday.

      Reply

    • shabangabang says:

      09:26am | 10/08/10

      Exact reason why I love living in a safe seat. Barely any junk here, only postal vote and how to vote forms. Most pressing issue for the local NIMBY’s is the upgrade of a local shopping centre.

    • watchingwithinterest says:

      12:49pm | 10/08/10

      If you want to see what it is like to live in a Labor strong hold take a drive down the main street of Newcastle.  The largest metro city outside of the Capital in Australia and it is a total embarrasment, full of derilict buildings.  The sad fact is that until people wake up and start giving their vote to other parties or independants then Newcastle will remain the poor cousin.

    • novocastrian says:

      02:22pm | 10/08/10

      watchingwithinterest I couldn’t agree more on the state of the city, its a disgrace but I think you can blame that squarely on the council. I am a novacastrian and a Labor supporter. More needs to be injected into our city and the council needs to be sacked.

    • David says:

      09:25am | 10/08/10

      Labor has union funds at its disposal (because the taxpayer pays for union elections). It has also delayed until the last moment the election launch (so that taxpayers have to pay the travel costs of their MPs). It has the advantage of incumbency and taxpayer funded government advertising.
      It can also afford to pork barrel as much as it likes because it is still claiming to have rescued the country from a recession and knows that its economic performance is not going to come under close scrutiny from a largely sympathetic media.
      Add an advertising campaign that deliberately misrepresents more than one comment by their opposition and they are still not satisfied.  If they had to abide by normal advertising standards Labor would now be in deep trouble…but hey, this is an election and the media wants them to win!

      Reply

    • Bobster says:

      10:48am | 10/08/10

      @ David, “largely sympathetic media”? Are you watching the same election as the rest of us? What could you possibly be seeing that makes you think the media - especially the Murdoch press - has any sympathy for Labor whatsoever? Barnaby Joyce’s failure to appear in SA has garnered some negative coverage in Adelaide but have you looked at the Daily Telegraph recently? Jesus suffering @#$%, man, what warped conspiracy theorist-populated reality do you hail from?

    • Paul says:

      11:08am | 10/08/10

      @David, big call claiming that Labor is pork barrelling when by all reports they have pledged just $7.3 billion to date, whereas the Liberal/National Coalition has pledged $18.3 billion if you believe Abbott, or as much as $25 billion if you believe the Hockey (I believe Hockey, as there appears to be the $3 billion pledged for companies to be paid the $3,250 to employ older workers missing from the equation since it was pledged by Abbott). 
      Any or all pork barrelling is coming from the Coalition, with a fair swag of it obviously unfunded (read higher debt and no surplus).
      And you are wrong in claiming that the media wants Labor to win; from all the reading I have done on this campaign, it appears the media wants the Coalition to win so that they can report on the historic result in a first term Government getting booted into oblivion.
      God help Australia if this happens, the Coalition is definitely no viable alternative.

    • Gavin says:

      11:36am | 10/08/10

      Let me know which bit of the ‘media’ you’re watching pal, I’d love to tune in.

    • iansand says:

      11:41am | 10/08/10

      For some reason Liberals need to feel that they are the victims of a vast conspiracy.  It is one of the odd things about them.  Another is the fixation on “elites”, as if a quick look at the location of their safe seats has no connectoion to the sort of jobs, education, connections or incomes their supporters enjoy.

    • Tom says:

      12:46pm | 10/08/10

      Unions use the AEC (and therefore taxpayers’ money) for their elections because the Libs changed the law to force them to!!

      By all means remove the taxpayer funding for union elections but remove the forced use of AEC and everyone will be happy.

      Just one of the several blatant fudges in your post (which I am pleased others are pointing out)

    • Joombi O'Flaherty says:

      08:01pm | 10/08/10

      May I place on record that should Labor get over the line, I will not be accepting any “well there’s a victory for the left wing media bias” comments from bitter Libs. Maybe we should restrict each newspaper and tv station to one vote each…oh hang on what’s that? You mean only individuals can actually vote?

    • philjenkin says:

      01:07pm | 10/08/10

      David, I think they were known as Democrat preferences, back in 1990.

      Reply

    • carl palmer says:

      06:04pm | 10/08/10

      “....was one of the football strategists of the late 80s and early 90s who pioneered the controversial tactic known as flooding.”

      Not quite right Penbo -  Back in the 70’s it use to be known as “stacking the backs.” Though not as sophisticated as the 90’s version with 4 on the bench V’s 2, faster, fitter players nowadays it had the same effect, getting numbers behind the ball and preventing the opposition from scoring.

      Reply

    • Kate says:

      06:49pm | 10/08/10

      I know it’s finicky - but pretty sure Pagan’s Paddock was less about flooding and more to do with freeing up the forward line so that the likes of Wayne Carey, Corey McKernan and John Longmire could be free to mark and kick goals.
      If your team had the best centre half forward the game’s ever seen, you’d do it too!

      Reply

    • Elizabeth says:

      08:34am | 11/08/10

      I cannot believe there are people out there who really believe what Julia Gillard, Wayne Swann and the Labor Party are saying.  These people just cannot grasp the reality of the vast damage that Labor has done to this country whilst in power.  If they had not been left such a good surplus by the Coalition, this country would have a much bigger deficit than it does now.  If they get back in by the skin of their teeth (through nothing but stealth), then truely, God help our country.  Labor will destroy it.

      Reply

    • MK says:

      09:59am | 11/08/10

      Tell Me about it Elizabeth, the only people worse than that are the ones that beleive the dribble of the coalition, the reason they are worse is these fools actualy have the gall to think they have a clue what is going on. These same people that harped that we were 300 Billion in debt, when debt had only increased 60 billion (at the time),
      from the level of Government debt there was when Howard finished,
      Yes the liberal government had debt,

      Do you actually know how large this magical surplus the liberals left was?

 
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