Predictions for Australia’s population seem to be going up like bids at an auction.
Three years ago the Australian Bureau of Statistics predicted 28 million by 2050 and more recently Kevin Rudd has mentioned a figure of 35 million. Media reports in the last few days have put the figure at more like 40 million by 2050. Any advance on 40 million?
So where are these figures coming from? Many experts agree that the current focus on growing Australia’s population to 35 million or more by 2050 is not founded on sound science but on short term trends with a large dash of wishful thinking.
According to University of Queensland demographer, Martin Bell, “the surge in growth reported in the latest ABS stats is largely a product of unprecedented levels of overseas migration, coupled with a large number of overseas migrants being counted as permanent residents. No one who has looked closely at this data expects this level of growth to be sustained even for the next five years. ... speculation about a figure of 40 million shows the manifest dangers of basing long term projections on trends over the latest year or two”.
Assuming we could grow Australia’s population to 35-40 million by 2050 would it be a good thing? This is where the great divide in expert opinion rears its head.
The population debate in Australia is following two main trajectories that are incompatible and lead to completely different outcomes for Australia. In their extreme forms they represent rampant growth with a view to economic gain and zero growth with a view to maintaining our environment. The sad reality is that, while you can select the evidence to support either view, neither is likely to lead to the desired outcomes their proponents envisage.
The pro-growthers tend to look only at the benefits in terms of dealing with skills shortages, the ageing population and increasing economic prosperity. And they’re not wrong. As world renowned population specialist at Adelaide University Graeme Hugo, points out “if we look to 2031, over 60% of the growth of the population is going to be in the old age groups”. The baby boomers, who make up 27.5 % of the population but 42% of the workforce, will have well and truly retired.
On the other hand, a population growth of 35 million by 2050 will lead to a doubling of our greenhouse gas emissions unless we make enormous changes to our lifestyle says CSIRO population modeller, Graham Turner. We’re already faced with large environmental challenges regardless of any growth in population. Right now 90% of Australians live in areas where rainfall is declining and technological fixes like desalination require three times more energy.
The zero-growthers tend to look only at environmental degradation, jobs for locals and social inequality without considering the social and technological stagnation that could result from walling Australia off from the rest of the world with a zero migration policy.
Such a policy could reduce the chance of developing innovative technologies and energy systems that we need to deal with current and emerging environment problems.
So one set of pressures we face encourage growth, and another set encourage constraint. Where does the solution lie?
On such a critical issue as population, it is essential that policy is underpinned by good research. “We shouldn’t be adopting unsubstantiated, aspirational targets; we should be looking at the science and looking at ... how we can achieve this holy grail of growth with sustainability,” says Martin Bell.
It is also essential that the researchers talk to each other and work together to help inform sensible policy decisions.
As long as economists, demographers, ecologists and urban planners inhabit parallel universes, we will not be able to reconcile the opposing trajectories or reach a shared and sensible vision for how we can grow our population into the future.
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