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It’s the retro election as Rudd and Abbott stuck in a funk

Peter Lewis

by Peter Lewis

01 Jun 05:45am

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Filed under: Election 2010, Kevin Rudd, Tony Abbott

26 comments

The accepted political wisdom that you can only win an election on a particular issue once is about to be tested as both Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott struggle to connect with voters by going retro.

Languishing with an approval rate of just 35 per Tony Abbott has set the time machine to 2001, brushed off the Coalition’s asylum seeker policy and even taken Phillip Ruddock out of mothballs.

Meanwhile, as Kevin Rudd’s disapproval outstrips approval for the first time (41-47), WorkChoices is being converted from the taxi that delivered Labor to the Lodge in 2007 into an ambulance for 2010.

A quick look at this week’ Essential Report, illustrates the funk both leaders find themselves in at present.

Up and down…approval ratings for the two leaders.

What is clear from these statistics is that neither leader is firing on all cylinders, in fact if you were classing this as prize fight it would be less Clash of the Titans and more Battle of the Midgets.

This could explain why both leaders are reverting to tried and true policies – Abbott from the conservative master John Howard and Rudd from the time when the whole political game seemed so much easier for him.

While the two issues appear to have little to do with each other they are connected by the group of voters who they are geared to influence – the lower income, outer suburban cohort previously known as Howard’s Battlers.

For these voters, Asylum Seekers became an iconic issue around the turn of the Millennium – it struck a perfect chord by asserting national identity at a time when people were feeling economically insecure, while asserting our ability to defend our borders at the very moment terrorists struck in the US.

Abbott’s challenge is to recapture the mood of 2001; is an Australia that recognises it escaped the Global Financial by embracing the region going to seek similar protections? Has the view on asylum seekers matured so that people recognise the boats are full of people escaping fundamentalism and violence rather than terrorists?

In short, can Abbott manufacture a fresh moral panic based on a map of Australia and a bunch of scary arrows?

For Rudd the challenge is subtler. WorkChoices (and I should here declare that EMC has worked for the ACTU on this campaign) was the policy that turned Howard’s battlers against their champion and rebuilt Labor’s brand as the party of working families.

More importantly, it was an issue that unified Labor’s intellectual and ideologically driven middle class voters, with its traditional working class base. Unlike the Republic, the Apology and Refugees, WorkChoices was a political matter that meant something to anyone who has a job.

The big question for this election then is can WorkChoices trump Asylum Seekers – or put another way, will a bread-and-butter economic issue prove more compelling than what is, at its heart a symbolic, cultural issue.

If Labor can convince voters that Tony Abbott will, indeed, rewind to WorkChoices (and our most recent polling shows 58 per cent do), then the government is well-placed to hold onto the battlers they need to win a second term.

After all, in a battle between Classic Memories and Greatest Hits it is the actual Hits that will be remembered every time.

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26 comments

Show oldest | newest first

    • acker says:

      08:33am | 01/06/10

      If Labor staggers over the line and wins the election, an upsurge of mostly smaller “l” Libs in the more marginal seats will enter there party room and I would expect the stocks of Malcolm Turnbull, Greg Hunt and eveSussan Ley will surge for leadership positions.

      Reply

    • Wayne Fehlhaber says:

      08:34am | 01/06/10

      My guess is that we will see , once campaigning begins , a clearer polarisation of voters intentions in opinion polling. This is something that has occurred over the past 30 years and i would be surprised if 2010 is any differrent.
      The primary vote intent of those polled as the election draws closer , will see the Greens fall to levels of 9-10%. The bulk of that loss will go back to Labor and Liberal making the outcome extremely close indeed.

      Reply

    • John A Neve says:

      10:30am | 01/06/10

      Wayne,

      I am glad we agree, yes as they have for the “past 30 years”, you and those like you will vote the same. It could have been John, Nelson, Malcolm or Tony, it matters not. You’ll all vote the same, after all mummy and daddy voted for them.

      Three cheers for all those enlightened voters. Why do we even bother to have elections?  We could just allow the major parties to swop seats every three years, think of the money we’d save.

    • acker says:

      11:01am | 01/06/10

      @ Wayne Fehlhaber .....some times political complacency can have a nasty habit of biting you in the Rse, such as “One Nation” “Family First” in the UK “Lib Dems” USA “Ross Perot” and more than likely “The Greens”

    • Wayne Fehlhaber says:

      11:26am | 01/06/10

      Acker :  The Greens failure to adhere to their principles is their downfall
      and i don’t see that changing anytime soon . Look at Qld . where the gutless idiots preferenced Labor , the party committed to flooding the Mary Valley. Don’t mistake my views for complacency Acker , i’m a realist and have made a study of Australian voting tendencies. Yes , of course , sometimes there are surprises but Australians are rather predictable and historically follow tradition.

    • acker says:

      12:10pm | 01/06/10

      @ Wayne Fehlhaber 11.26 am: Greens federal vote election1996-2.4%..1998 - 2.7%.. 2001 - 4.9%.. 2004 - 7.7%.. 2007 - 9.0%....shows a consistant trend upwards over a period of 10+ years…your assertions appears to be short on numerical evidence

    • Evan Findlay says:

      09:53am | 01/06/10

      Totally agree Wayne. The Greens offer even more flakier policy than Mr Abbott. Currently I think those alienated or disenchanted Labor/swinging voters are sending a message to Rudd to straighten up.

      Whilst recent polling has certainly given Labor and Rudd food for thought, the disheartening aspect for the Liberal Party is that whilst the electorate is tiring of Rudd, they absolutely refuse to vote for Abbott. Makes you think had the Liberal Party stuck with Malcolm would they be in a stronger position to wrestle government away from Labor.

      But one would assume, if history is anything to go by, that as polling day approaches the level of support for the Greens will diminish and the election will become a close contest.

      Reply

    • Wayne Fehlhaber says:

      10:42am | 01/06/10

      Evan :  Well i would not with that assessment at all ,  the Liberals are still receiving the most primaries and as the election campaign gets underway and Coalition policy is fully released , you will see a further rise in the Liberal primary vote. Add to that the leakage of Green and other minor party preferences and we could see Labor struggle to stay in power.

    • Evan Findlay says:

      11:42am | 01/06/10

      Come on Wayne. Tony is advocating the two most unelectable and contentious policies of the Howard era, Workchoices and border protection. A very flaky and continually changing climate change policy, a policy very few believe him on, and a extremely generous paid parental scheme bankrolled by imposing a “great big new tax” on big business. A policy that will no doubt become non core after an election.

      I know of no opposition leader that has won government with a 33% preferred Prime Minister rating. And as the election circus rolls into town I think you will see Tony demonstrate why he is the circus clown.

      The proof is in the polls, swinging voters and those who feel betrayed by Labor ardently refuse to sign to Abbott. Now if they remove Abbott and replace him with someone who is more electable your point may have some validity. It reminds me of the scenario facing the Labor party in 1983. Whether to oust Bill Hayden and replace him with Bob Hawke thus consolidating their lead in the polls or run with an opposition leader, who by the way was more popular than Abbott is now, and chance their luck.

    • Wayne Fehlhaber says:

      03:05pm | 01/06/10

      Evan : Wow !  you lie just as much as Rudd don’t you ? However ,  you make some silly mistakes like the P.M. does too. 
      (1)  Workchoices is not Coalition policy ( just another Labor lie)
      (2)  Border protection is continually polling as a high voter concern.
      (3)  At least the Coalition has a Climate Change policy.
      (4)  The Great Big New Tax is the RSPT
      (5)  Malcolm Fraser became P.M. 1975 PPM 19%
      (6)  The Election Circus Clown role is already taken by Rudd the Dud.
      (7)  The majority primary vote still rests with the Liberals.

      You have not done too well here Evan but that is understandable because you are talking a load of horse dung.  The Labor party is terrified at this point in time because they are in electoral strife and they have run out of money to counter with vote buying . This 2010 election will be extremely close.

    • Rob r Charteris says:

      04:58pm | 01/06/10

      Geee Waffler wayne I’m surprised you haven’t blamed the latest incident from the Israeli’s on the Rudd government as a smoke screen to take attention away from the nonsense spin you keep harping on about.

    • Wayne Fehlhaber says:

      05:58pm | 01/06/10

      Rob r Charteris :  Don’t be so grumpy Rob , it might not happen .  Rudd the Dud could still fall over the line.  When such a large number of dufusses are Labor voters , anything could happen.

    • Rob r Charteris says:

      09:58pm | 01/06/10

      Wayne - Jane…. funny how that rhymes, nice to see your able to be original

    • Frank Drebbin says:

      10:51am | 01/06/10

      When people get to ballot box .....vote Green ?

      What do they stand for: the envirnment at the sake of anything i.e. jobs plus anything immoral in normal people’s estimation: unfettered abortion, euthenasia, legalised drug abuse.

      They would be GREAT for prosperity and social cohesion.

      Having said all that, Bob Brown and Tony Abbott do have one thing in common - principles and policy vision to where they would like to take the country. This is versus Kevin “who are you” Rudd and his economy destroying policies.

      Reply

    • Robert Smissen , rural SA says:

      12:19pm | 01/06/10

      Voting Green = voting Labor because that’s where the preferences go.

    • Serious says:

      10:53am | 01/06/10

      A further note on the ‘Retro’ aspect of what is going on at the moment.  The Liberal arrows add is a reprise of one they ran in 1966 (although then it came in a paper version delivered through the letterbox).  In that year it was all about the ‘red (yellow) hordes’ streaming down from the North if we didn’t stop the communists in Vietnam.  Abbott is yesterdays man and has no role to play in this country’s future.  If Turnbull was leading the Liberals into this coming election they would win easily.

      Reply

    • persephone says:

      05:31pm | 01/06/10

      Serious

      I thought they got the idea from ‘Dad’s Army’ - you can imagine Bronnie & Wilson thinking that would be a winner for the over 70s.

    • Lewis Penny says:

      05:32pm | 01/06/10

      Agreed - I would normally go Liberal, but I have to say that Tony Abbott is a scary candidate.  Given what he has said about fault based divorce and ‘housewives’ in the past, I’ll be sticking with the flimpsy Rudd.  Tony Abbott’s Liberal Party is quickly becoming a cruel, far-right, religious party.

    • Brian Connor says:

      10:54am | 01/06/10

      If they stuck with Malcolm, we would have an ETS by now, the $A would be below 60cents, the ASX lucky to have a 3 handle on it and 10% unemplyment. We would need to recall JWH and Costello to clean up the mess…................AGAIN.

      Tony2010.

      Reply

    • Crap Tails says:

      11:06am | 01/06/10

      The opposition won’t announce major policy until the election is called so there’s no point speculating about anything until then, in my opinion. They can sneak release dribs and drabs all they like, but until they slap a policy document on the table no one will (nor should) take them seriously. That’s why, until then, all you’ll hear is the opposition crapping on about how crap the crap government are. And the government will just crap on about how crap the last crap government was and how the opposition has no (der) policies. I wish this was on Tivo so I could fast forward till the good bit.

      Reply

    • G. David says:

      01:21pm | 01/06/10

      I think the opposition would be unwise to release their policies too early given the way Kevin “me-too” Rudd shamelessly stole their best ideas in his last election campaign to disguise the fact that he himself had no ideas and stood for very little apart from winning power at any cost.

    • Robert S McCormick says:

      11:29am | 01/06/10

      It is going to happen! We are going to get a Hung Federal Parliament! The ALP has, once again, proven it is incapable of running anything. Kevin Rudd, along with Gillard, Garrett, Swan, Roxon, Ellis & Wong - to name but a few - are a total, complete and utter disaster. They have abandoned all their policies and also those which “Me Too” Rudd pinched from the Coalition during the run-up to the 2007 Election. They have no policies.
      The Coalition under Abbott has taken a hard turn to the Right. Abbott has reinstated the inhumane, cruel, racist, sectarian policies of the Howard Government when it comes to Immigration. “WorkChoices” will not be far behind.
      The one area where the Coalition excels the ALP is, and always has been, that of the Economy. In the run-up to the election if there is one thing Rudd cannot attack the Coalition on it is the Economy.
      What both the ALP & Coalition cannot get into their heads ( Greens, Take Note) is that Australians don’t like extremes. Why does anyone think the Coalition under Robert Menzies was so successful? They followed the middle path. During that time the ALP was little better than a sort of Communist Party of Left-wing extremes. Nationalisation, State control of everything from birth to death. Australians repeatedly rejected that form of extremism.
      Today the ALP, under Rudd, Gillard, Tanner & Swan is rushing towards the same ultra-left extremism of total State control.
      Today under Abbott and his ultra-Right Conservatives the Coalition is rushing head-long into extreme conservatism - some would say Fascism.
      The Greens are little different with their extreme, unattainable policies. Policies which, if the ALP doesn’t do it first, if they ever get any control will destroy the entire economy of this country and just like their pals in tha ALP will create total State control over every aspect of our lives.
      The Greens may have had an up-swing in support but that is olny because, knowing the chances of the Greens ever forming a majority government are nil,  the electorate having grown up with always having two definite options are now confused because both the ALP & Coalition Parties, having dropped all pretence of being moderate, middle path, Paries have betrayed them. We should either all vote “Informal” or for some truly Independent candidate - Independent as opposed to those ersatz-Independents the ALP & Coalition will create.

      Reply

    • Dognuts says:

      01:12pm | 01/06/10

      I’m starting to get the feeling that hyperbole will decide the winner….........to be honest, the amount of exaggeration and hype surrounding both parties is just staggering.

      Take the government for example. Worst ever, never been worse off blah, blah, blah…........I for one am no worse off due to their perceived competence or lack thereof. My employer had a record year of profit, I got a big fat bonus and a decent pay rise to boot. Can’t blame the government for that. Cost of living increases? Yes, but no more than the last decade or so. Roof insulation? I was a tradie in my past life and I would say with a fair degree of certainty that incompetent shonks cause roof fires and deaths (albeit tighter regulation may have caught the shonks earlier). BER ripoff? Again, shonks at work (see my previous comment on regulation). Mining tax? Hardly going to send BHP or Rio broke. Interest Rate rises? A result of a strong economy. If you payed too much for your house, tough luck and welcome to the cold hard light of the free market. The PM? A touch phoney, but you get that when you are expected to please everyone.

      As for the opposition, I knew Tony Abbott back in his seminary days, and despite the fact that he is painted as some kind of religious nutter, I found him to be a decent fellow. Stong opinions for sure, and many I didn’t agree with, but he won’t be the ruination of the country if he gets elected. Policies? Sure, lacking, but at worst they would go with business as usual, which would mean for the most part that none of us are much better or worse off as a result. Also, they are getting better traction by arguing the negative, so why not run with it until it looks like it is no longer effective. Boat People? Quite frankly on the wrong track, but consensus drive policy and if the majority are bigoted fools who fear a piddling number of arrivals, then so be it.

      I reckon we all need to take a bit of a deep breath and calm down. Some of the responses here indicate that some are working themselves into such a frenzy that they risk disappearing up their own bum…...

      Reply

    • Rocket Surgeon says:

      01:38pm | 01/06/10

      Dognuts, this moderation you speak of is an interesting concept but I don’t see it catching on! It would certainly lead to better policies and a more cohesive society but think of the poor media proprietors. This moderation idea doesn’t get people angry and emotional so they have no need to buy newspapers with hyperbolic headlines, visit websites and comment about outrageously partisan articles and watch tabloid news bulletins promoting the latest rant as serious political analysis.

      It’ll never catch on!

    • Joe says:

      05:31pm | 01/06/10

      Well Rudd cetainly can’t run on his record, so he’ll have to make up a scare campaign based on what the other side said they won’t do.

      Who would believe anything Rudd says anymore?

      Reply
 
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