Evidence is now mounting that last week’s Newspoll poll showing a seven point drop in Labor support was a rogue result, with Essential Research’s weekly tracking showing no movement in the two-party preferred vote.
The Essential Report, that has Labor comfortably ahead 59-41, follows on the heels of Monday’s Herald/Nielson poll that was also steady.
Beneath the headline figures there are some intriguing sub-plots, with the public going close to welcoming the increase in interest rates, while continuing to rate the Prime Minister down on his handling of the asylum seeker issue.
The last week’s coverage of politics has been intriguing – based as it was on a premise that no-one actually quite believed – that support for the Rudd Government had collapsed under his handling of asylum seekers.
But if you want to understand how Rudd can be struggling on one issue, but still dominant in the polls you need look no further than his management of the economy.
This is the area of public policy where conservative parties are supposed to smash the bleeding hearts, but Rudd is defying political gravity.
You could argue that an recession-busting economic policy based on low interest rates and big amounts of public spending is always going to be an attractive proposition, after all who doesn’t want more money in their pocket?
Now that rates are beginning to increase, those same punters might re-evaluate their opinion of the government’s management of the economy.
But it seems that the threat of the GFC has instilled in the Australian public a degree of tolerance for government seldom before seen. Indeed, we seem to have entered a political netherworld where people actually equate rising interests rate with an improving economy.
Poor old Mark Latham must be turning in his political grave – Rudd is actually deriving benefit from rising rates, even amongst Coalition voters.
What’s happening here? My read is that Rudd is reaping the benefits from preparing Australia for an economic crisis that never occurred.
Whether the collective adrenalin that comes with weathering a near miss gets him through further rate rises and mounting debt will be a further test of his Houdini-like tenure.
For the time being, the public appears to accept that Australia has managed the situation better than most, conferring the positive outcomes on the PM while being prepared to blame the negatives on the global situation.
Meanwhile, the asylum seekers languishing in Indonesian waters continues to be a storm cloud on the PM’s ratings, albeit one that is yet to dent the polls.
For a leader who prides himself on taking the centre ground, the PM seems to, for the first time, be getting a few splinters from spending too long on the fence.
This is translating into an issue where the Coalition is actually rated at being better at managing – albeit from a low base of 27-23, with 38 per cent saying it would make no difference.
While the issue of the Sri Lankan boatpeople is likely to be resolved in the next few weeks, the broader question will be whether the incident, the first time the PM has been clearly on the wrong side of a public debate, does start to chip away at his stellar poll numbers.
Facebook Recommendations
Read all about it
Punch live
Up to the minute Twitter chatter
Ukraine song pinches chord progression from The Verve's Bittersweet Symphony. Fo real #sbseurovision
RT @GerardDaffy: @antsharwood all the talk over there is the grannies will win.they entered to get a church built,feelgood story
Recent posts
The latest and greatest
We don’t deserve this huge, exciting scientific project
I’d like to be able to say that sharing the world’s largest radio telescope with South Africa…
Mining money talks the loudest in Australian politics
When North Queensland Liberal MP George Christensen got the idea of launching a new political organisation…
Please enter your password
Help! I’ve succumbed to a crippling modern illness that can strike at any moment. Symptoms include:…
Nosebleed Section
choice ringside rantings
From: They must pay for one’s bitter disappointments
Michael S says:
"A teacher at Geelong Grammar had criticised her for using words that were too long, which had left her confused and had made her doubt her ability to write essays. She became ''quite distressed'' when her English marks began to fall." I can sympathise. My scholastic mentors conveyed to me a causal relationship… [read more]From: Welfare for breeders is a bonus for everyone
Change Up! says:
I have no problem paying my taxes. As a single, childless person on a very decent income, I can afford it and not have my life severely altered. Plus I understand that my taxes paying for things like schools, childcare and infrastructure is ultimately a good thing. A better community is better for me… [read more]Gentle jabs to the ribs
They must pay for one’s bitter disappointments
A private school girl’s family is sueing her elite, extremely expensive private school for not… Read more
Most commented