Is it refugees? Is it rates? Or is it Rudd?

Julie says:

07:11am | 03/11/09

Interestingly how you have spun your comments. You did not mention that the esential poll which went with the asylum seekers poll had labour at 59% and coalition 41%.

WHR says:

07:34am | 03/11/09

Yes Julie, and my special WHR Poll with 1000000 sample size and a 0% margin of error says Labor has a 2PP lead of 95/5. Magic!!

danj says:

07:39am | 03/11/09

I like the teflon Kevin phrase. The thing with him is its hard to know who the real Kevin is. Apparently he’s a swearing psycho behind closed doors and then he’s a cheerey, happy bloke in front of the cameras. He claimed to be an economic conservative in the lead up to the last election then borrowed a ship load of money and gave it away. What about the Monthly essay where he anounced that capitalism was dead? I just can’t figure out exactly who he is.

As for the asylum seeker debate I think they have ballsed that up. The way its going the policy is hardly going to be any different from the last government’s which is strange to say the least given all that’s been said.

I don’t however think that the race to next year’s election will be as close as you’re saying given the state of the alternative. For some reason Malcolm just doesn’t seem to be up to the mark and I doubt voters will take the punt on him.

Joel B1 says:

07:57am | 03/11/09

Rudd can’t continue to run with his only policy which is the application of a truck-load of borrowed cash.

At some point he’s going to have to actually do some work, and that’s not just his usual “busy-work”. (My Nan always said he looked “shiftless”.)

Wayne H says:

08:10am | 03/11/09

I really don’t think it is all border protection. The halo is slipping a bit on our dancing queen of spin. Fake people can only hold it together for so long. The fact that our financial results are way improved on what was forecast shows that both Rudd and Swan had know idea what was coming, how big it was or how to handle it. Panic stations and billions of dollars poorly spent and wasted is the highlight of recent performance to me. Could we have got the same results for a much less spend? More of those billions should have found there way into much needed infrastructure than did in memorial halls and cash splashes. We went in to this GFC with the wrong men at the tiller. If you listen closely to Swan’s language you will note he always has a bet each way.  A decent Opposition could tear this government to pieces. And there lies the problem. Too little talent.

phil says:

08:15am | 03/11/09

Newspoll? seriously!
November fools day maybe, it’s News what would you expect.

coxie says:

08:16am | 03/11/09

Although I don’t get about too much, I do not know anyone who voted for the Krudd so just where do these pollsters do there polling?

Allan says:

08:22am | 03/11/09

Asylum seekers today, the extra expense of the ETS tomorrow and labour outsourcing on the super fast broadband the day after.
Rudd has wedded himself so thoroughly and vociferously to them he has given himself no way to explain away the failure of these projects because he has been so adamant in their righteousness.
It has been previously the Hawke/ Keating and Howard/ Costello Govt’s but is very much the Rudd Govt nowadays and any failure will be his.

bitrich says:

08:25am | 03/11/09

Maybe they are getting sick of wall-to-wall Rudd in the media. And every boatload is taken as evidence that for all his talk, his policies don’t work. The 2001 election was an emphatic democratic declaration that most Aussies want strong borders. The open border lobby just don’t get that. Rudd Labor are starting to pay the price for trying to be all things to all people.  The Coaltion ought to come out and say that for every person who jumps the queue, and becomes our unwanted responsibilty, then one less person is part of our official immigration program.  We are mad to have too much immigration, and most Aussies agree.

Robert says:

08:28am | 03/11/09

Could be a polling anomaly, but it could also reflect the fact that there is a growing realisation that Rudd is all show and very little substance.

The real turning point in Rudd’s tenure, however, will be when the general population finally figures out that the ETS scheme amounts to a $60 billion tax impost on every day Australians in what’s a giant version of Monopoly spurning a whole industry of traders and profit takers buying and selling something that no-one can see…. ETS is not an issue yet because no-one understands it - even most of the politicians. Asylum seekers is a minor issue compared to this time bomb…

Michael says:

08:40am | 03/11/09

The preferred leader figures indicate precisely why Turnbull will not win an election no matter how good party versus party polling stands for the Coalition. He turns everything into UteGate with his supposed high intelligence and sharp wit. He has neither. He has only the inclination to show others up. In fact, he shows himself more clearly with each attempt. With all the focus on leaders during election campaigns, his boot-tip will be tickling his tonsils by Day Two of the campaign.

Harvey says:

08:52am | 03/11/09

If this turnaround is reflected in the other polls, especially the Fairfax poll, then we ‘ll know the voters have turned on Rudd.

If so, the woes of the Rees Government are probably the main factor in NSW and that means Rudd has got a serious problem in that state.

I live in Sydney’s western suburbs and people aren’t talking about asylum seekers. Some think money is being wasted on unnecessary school buildings. Most like Rudd and think he’s doing a good job.

Gogs says:

09:13am | 03/11/09

It’s about time? Does this mean that the ‘sheep’ in this country are actually starting t think for themselves and stop blindly following the Krudd party line? It doesn’t take a nuclear physicist to work out that this man is hell-bent on leading this country, happy as the rats in Hamelin, to economic ruin and total loss of identity. Whilever there are handouts though, the disciples will follow blindly, after all, he wouldn’t be the first leader to buy votes this way, look at many 3rd world countries where elections have been won by blatant vote buying from the poor. The only difference is we are not a 3rd world country (yet, although if we wish for it hard enough…) and Kevin disguises the bribery as largesse!  By the way Harvey, the money wasted on unnecessary school buildings is a Federal debacle, nothing to do with the NSW Government, another basket case!

marley says:

09:17am | 03/11/09

I don’t think there’s much chance of the rabble that is the current Coalition winning an election any time soon.  That being said, I do think a lot of Australians are waiting for Rudd to actually start making the tough decisions instead of ordering more studies, reviewing more options and consulting more opinion polls.  He has the mandate to get things done, but has been reluctant to show the leadership the country needs, for fear he might lose a vote or three.  Health care, aboriginal disadvantage, infrastructure, education, and, yes, border control, are all issues that need to be addressed, but if there’s been any concrete progress in these areas, most of us have missed it (and no, studies and talks do not constitute “progress.”)  My own attitude towards Rudd is - stop the blather and get on with it - do what you believe the country needs - and if you lose some support, so be it - that’s politics.  This trying to please all the people all the time has reached it’s use-by date, and the polls reflect that.

Voxpop says:

09:26am | 03/11/09

As someone mentioned above the 2001 election was swayed by asylum seekers, Tampa and a bloody huge fear mongering campaign from Howard.  But then the voters wised up that they had been manipulated. 

The Liberals with their fear and smear are at it again with the rabid shock jocks and redneck talkback listeners only to happy to run with it.  I’m relieved to say that my cicle of friends, my extensive client list and anyone else I’ve talked to about this issue don’t have that disgusting attitude.  We are however dismayed that Rudd has taken the wrong approach and hope that a better solution is forthcoming. 

I think this slump will turn around - it represents dissatifaction over his handling of the matter but on the whole people do understand that this is a difficult predicament.

Chris Lehmann says:

09:28am | 03/11/09

I am astounded it has taken this long!  Whilst he is a very clever politician, he has no solid idealogical core.  Before becoming opposition leader he was “kev the christian democrat”.  On becoming the opposition leader he was “kev the economic conservative”.  As PM when the GFC hit he was “kev, the social democrat and slayer of greedy capatilists”.  Now with the border protection issue hitting home “kev the christian democrat” is at odds with the latest incarnation of “tough but humane kev”.  People are starting to see through the teflon veneer to find that tat his core, there is no “real kev”, just one layer of spin after another.

Kinny says:

09:32am | 03/11/09

A few years ago I was having coffee with a friend who was one of Rudd’s biggest supporters, he was very annoyed that I was planning to vote for Howard. Now 2 years down the line we are having coffee and my friend has become disillusioned. He said:
’ Thanks to Rudd I have no job!’
‘Thanks to Rudd utility rates, interest rates, health insurance is all going up!’
‘Thanks to Rudd I had to wait 10 hrs with my sick Dad to get anyone to see him at the local hospital ED!’
‘Thanks to Rudd my son who is in medical school will be the 1st generation of unemployed doctors because the government hasn’t set aside funding for hm!’
‘Thanks to Rudd medicare is being slashed and Aussies are getting less health care!’
‘Thanks to Rudd the boat people situation is turning out to be a national embaressment!’
‘Thanks to Rudd the ETS will be another tax to provide funds for the government to waste!’
‘Thanks to Rudd we have no time to plan for the future of this country as we can’t even manage the present!’
As he fumed away, I smiled…........should have voted for the Libs…....

Voxpop says:

09:55am | 03/11/09

Kinny I’d say you and your imaginary friend have some kind of persecution complex if you think Rudd is to blame for all your problems.

John A Neve says:

09:55am | 03/11/09

Kinny,
I admire your “friend”, most voters cannot remember yesterday. By the time the election comes around most people will vote for he who offers the biggest bribes.
Added to which Kinny, your “friend” has a very selective mind, could it be those pink glasses your “friend” is wearing?

Joel B1 says:

10:02am | 03/11/09

Voxpox, “fear and smear, rabid shock jocks, rednecks, bloody huge fear mongering”

Ummm… who’s got the persecution complex?

phil says:

10:03am | 03/11/09

Having a sustained idiotic media feeding frenzy over asylum seekers in this country, fanned by the Rights fear, hate and ignorance, will always uncover Australia’s weak and fearful underbelly. The ignorant who confirmed the Howard disgraces earlier this decade on these issues are still alive, still uneducated and still being polled. Confirmation again, the Conservative Right’s need to exploit and nurture the worst of human nature to stop its own inevitable extinction.

Janelle says:

10:10am | 03/11/09

It’s not just the asylum seeker issue. What about the burning oil rig off WA? This is a disgrace and where on earth are the Federal Government? It’s as if they don’t know anything about it. Do we have an Environment Minister? Kevin Rudd doesn’t want anything to do with it. Step up to the plate Rudd! He is only seen when he is doing or saying something thats popular. He is starting to make Howard look like a better PM, and I never thought I would say that. He’s as weak as piss, and only concerned for his popularity. Kevin FIRST, Australia a distant SECOND.

Barb says:

10:30am | 03/11/09

Great to see Rudd’s poll numbers collapsing. Australia is not a Nation Of Immigrants. Australia is a State settled by Anglo-Celtic Australians which is based on Christian Values. Until Rudd’s gets this, his numbers will continue to fall. It’s time for the Liberal Party to exploit Labour/Greens cultural hatred of true Aussies.

Johnny says:

10:34am | 03/11/09

Why we don`t just build a super super super computer by spending billions billions billions tax payer money which can think and solve all our problems. And start laying off our pollies because of their expensive salaries ? Sounds a good idea , Mate ?!!

Voxpop says:

10:37am | 03/11/09

Joel B1 - you have a short memory regarding the fear campaign, have a look around you and tune into some of the shock jock radio then tell me I’m wrong.  Or are you just one of those idiots I hear ranting - oh well I do get a laugh out of how easily they get played and how truly embarrassing they are.  If I took them seriously I’d be far more scared of them than any asylum seekers.

Charity Box says:

10:43am | 03/11/09

Your comment:I would say its multi factorial issues,like,failures in Petrol watch,grocery watch,whale watch,the stupid broadband mess,the failure of the Education revolution,the medicare rebate,the ETS,computers in schools ( what computers) The petrol rigg fire,the boat people,intrest rates…and on and on and on…..Rudd has failed..time to leave the house

Jane says:

10:49am | 03/11/09

So it’s not JUST the asylum thing then Julie? Even better for the Coalition that people must be rating down the Labor govt on other things as well then. Beginning to see through the lies and spin…and absolute cluelessness of them. Good.

Carl Palmer says:

10:50am | 03/11/09

The other day I listened to the PM tell us that the “situation on the Oceanic Viking” was “difficult”. If my PM is telling me that this is difficult then he is struggling in his role as PM. Clearly his current “solution” does not deliver. As usual, blame someone or something else - Ski Lanka, Afghanistan GFC. I thought Afghanistan has been at war for the last 10 plus years, I could be wrong. The PM criticised the previous approach therefore he MUST have a viable and a far more effective alternative - which is……….

Peter Lewis suggests that the PM should start talking about cricket. That would have worked for JH as he was a passionate cricket follower and a cricket tragic. On cricketing matters he spoke on a level that the cricketing public understood. Getting the PM to talk cricket would like getting Paul Keating to talk cricket, both are fish out of water. John Howard Bob Hawke, now that’s different.

On economic matters the current administration doesn’t have the runs on the board to boast about anything just yet. Spending money to tackle the GFC wasn’t a flash of economic mastery and or brilliance. Clearly this strategy hasn’t worked elsewhere on the globe. The current administration (and all Australians) is benefiting from the structural changes that were made to our economy by previous Labour AND Liberal administrations. These structural changes placed us in a rock solid economic position and are the real reasons why we weathered the GFC. That together with a bit of luck with the huge draw on our resources by China topped up our bank balance. Where Australia stands in 5 to 10 years will reflect how well the current administration managed our economy and what it did to prepare us for the future. I really do hope that it leave it in a better state than when it came into power. I DO worry that this will NOT be the case. Given the direction we are heading I’m concered about the future of this country.

As for Teflon Kevin – the primary reason for this is that there is NO effective opposition. The Liberals are all over the place which enables the current administration to get away scott free – hence Teflon Kevin. The Wilson Tuckey incident is an example of how ineffectual the opposition was and how the PM got away with blue murder. Willson was 100% correct and MT & RK 100% incorrect.

Peter says:

10:59am | 03/11/09

People are starting to wake up to Rudds character. Most of us all fell for the pre election spin campaign and were happy to move on from Howard. But now almost 2 years down the track and we are starting to see who Rudd really is. Apart from not being able to make tough decisions in case he takes a tumble in the polls, he’s arogant, self obsessed, a show pony and only seems to do or say whats going to be popular. The Prime Minister needs to have guts and do whats best for Australia not put themselves first. Concentrating on being and remaing Mr Popular and spending most of your time discrediting Mr Turnbull to get revenge over UTEGATE is not running the country, it’s playing games. Time to get to work Mr Rudd the honeymoon is over!

Jane says:

11:03am | 03/11/09

Voxpop…fear mongering campaign??? You mean like the anti-Workchoices campaign…(when most polled didn’t even actually know what work condition/contract they were employed under….and union membership actually declined under it) a $40m fear and lies advertising campaign for them by the Unions. ....You mean like the Howardlies campaign that had everyone convinced the kiddies overboard was a deliberate lie..‘as if they would do such a thing ..throw their own kids in the water’ ( how’s that line looking now by the way ) The scaremongering on Nuclear…the scaremongering on the ‘greatest financial crisis in our lifetimes’..‘it’s gonna get tough/ugly’ ...lowering expectations when the GFC was never going to effect us in Australia as it did the rest of the world..why?...because we were best performing beforehand, had regulating banking and a surplus like no other country (thanks Coalition) pfft. ALP wrote the manual on ‘fear and scare campaigns’.

chris says:

11:20am | 03/11/09

Rudds ‘tuff but humane’ stance shows me he is very much a Bob Carr style polly, that is try not to rock the boat too much and when the going gets tuff put on the hard hat so everyone thinks you are doing things.
spin spin spin

Jeremy C Browne says:

11:30am | 03/11/09

Newspoll reflects the obvious fact that you can’t claim to be tough on border protection when you are not.  Just saying you are tough doesn’t make you tough!  Abbot is absolutely correct.  How many of the (so far) 61 people who have perished between Australia and elsewhere would have done so if Rudd hadn’t watered down Howards border protection policies which were working so well???

Tim Gartrell says:

11:44am | 03/11/09

There’s a lot of people drawing a lot of conclusions here. It’s worth a look at pollytics.com and pollbludger this morning to see what the statistics guys are saying about drawing such big conclusions from one poll. Maybe wait a fortnight guys, match it up to the trend and then let rip with the theories.

Zeta says:

11:44am | 03/11/09

It’s a blip. Turnbull has been AWOL for the duration of this Newpoll period. When people aren’t thinking about Turnbull, they’re probably thinking that a Coalition Government wouldn’t be such a bad thing. Watch: this will embolden Turnbull, putting him out more on the Asylum Seeker issue; in a month, those numbers will correct themselves when people remember he’s still the Leader of the Opposition.

This is a nightmare for both sides. Neither has captured the zeitgeist on border protection, and Turnbull has moved too far away from Howard’s rhetoric to get it back. Rudd never had it, and his Toughassionate position just looks weak and ridiculous, as someone astutely pointed out in one of the QT liveblogs, he’s debating two sides of an argument at once.

Turnbull needs to quit now, while they’re ahead, install a new leader and try to claw the Coaltion back to a better position in the HoR in the next election. His Alan Jones interview yesterday was a touchstone, he’s done for. 

If Rudd’s smart, he’ll try to wag the dog, find a war to fight in the next 6 months. People think Howard won ‘01 and ‘04 on the back of border protection. He didn’t. He won because he linked border protection to national security. Rudd isn’t. The risk for him is that playing the national security card will swing people toward conservatives.

Crow says:

11:52am | 03/11/09

Now we have the Mad Monk(Abbott)putting the blame on Rudd for the lost of one life, and the missing of 11 others, with the sinking of a refugee boat over the weekend,  Abbott I suppose Rudd was also responsible for the lost of 365 lives in a refugee boat when Howard was in power in 2004.

Pat says:

11:58am | 03/11/09

If I was one of those polled I would have been part of the swing away from Labour. In 2007 I though that a change in government would have been a breath of fresh air and a real positive change. But I now know that they (the whole labour government) have no depth of character, no statesmanship, no intelligence and no ability to make a decision and stick with it.
Firstly, very few of them have ever come close to answering a straight question or putting their hands up and saying… yes I did… I thought that was the best decision at the time… I stand by that decision… etc.  This is basic leadership stuff… make a decision, stick by it… take responsibility for it.
Secondly, this whole asylum seekers issue is way beyond a joke. They are simply playing politics with the lives of a group of very vulnerable people and it makes me sick to see our Prime Minister beating his chest to prove his “toughness” by adding more grief to them, particularly the children. That is not the Australian Way.
As Laurie Oaks proved with Julia Gillard recently they are a bunch of hypocrites who will say and do anything if they think it will improve next weeks polls, don’t worry about thinking as far ahead as the next election and the worse part of the whole deal is that the opposition is no better.
I think it’s time we got the politician out of politics. We need a House of Representatives that is not elected but selected like a jury. Balance could be maintained by having the House overseen by an elected Senate and Prime Minister or (dare I say it) President.

H says:

12:01pm | 03/11/09

I agree with Voxpop’s intitial comment, the electorate disliked the mean spiritedness of the Coalitions and had moved on from the racism and fear of Tampa. So why didn’t Rudd stand up to the rednecks?

Instead of getting defensive about how “tough” he is, he could have just pointed out that there is a genocide on in Sri Lanka and that’s why they are coming. Aussies by an large see Rudd as an intellectual, which is the contrast we wanted with the anti-intellectua-bribe the bogans-Howard years.

And Rudd has decided not to use this great strength and instead has said I’m just as tough as Howard was. So the wiser Aussie electorate shakes its head and asks: Why Kevin? We didn’t vote for Howard - we even turffed him out of his seat so why try to be him?

Jane says:

12:16pm | 03/11/09

Er Crow…it’s Rudd’s policies that have re-newed their hope and encouraged them to come again…risking lives and yes, losing lives. Howard’s ‘tough’ stance was actually ‘kinder’ to them…they didn’t risk coming…..and losing lives attempting to. The boats stopped.
Abbott is completely correct.

KRuddco own this situation. Their doing.
The fact that they waited in Indonesia for 5 years to come now the policy is changed is proof of that.

The word went out as soon as Labor was elected that they would be a ‘soft’er touch after their vocal criticisms and deliberate claims of moral superiority and opposition to the Pacific solution and the Howard govt stance when they were in opposition.
What has happened is no surprise once the Pacific solution was dismantled.

They were happy to take populist kudos from some quarters for doing so and appearing ‘humane’....and now must wear and take responsibility for the harsh ramifications of doing so.

Govt is not as ‘easy’ as Labor thought it would be….and successful leadership and management of the Nation is not as ‘easy as those who flippantly voted for them ‘for change sake’ thought it would be either.

I doubt this is a ‘blip’ as ALP apologists hope. The figures may ebb and flow from here..but it’s the beginning of a trend..a turning point where people are at last able to admit they were wrong/conned to vote for them.

jac says:

12:25pm | 03/11/09

Rudd The Dudd the electorate is finally waking up to what a fake he is

Blokey1 says:

12:34pm | 03/11/09

If we look at the successes of most of the immigrants, legal/ illegal from as early as 1972 we should stop worrying of the attitudes of the rednecks who now shold number in the smaller end of the scale. Let Abbot be selective in his comments. Truth will be out in the long run. All we need do is try and stem the exploitation of the people smugglers. Send them to jail for longer terms or fine them to make their trade meaningless.

H says:

12:36pm | 03/11/09

@ Jane 12:16: Yep, I’m sure the Tamils are all sitting at home watching the tely and getting updates on Australia’s immigration policy - that’s why they came, the tely told them with a new PM we had softer policies - its top news priority in Sri Lanka- Australian policy. Which channel in Sri Lanka actually reports on Australian policy btw?

Joel B1 says:

12:41pm | 03/11/09

Wait up! All you Rudd-dislikers are WRONG!

Rudd’s just said “I understand that it won’t necessarily be popular.” Huh! take that! POW! BIFF!

And he’s trotted out the “People from the right of politics won’t like it. People from the left of politics won’t like it but my job is to get on with the business of doing it.” line that I predicted two (2) days ago.

On the money again Joel B1!

(http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/03/2731783.htm)

Damo says:

12:44pm | 03/11/09

But Kevin07 had a catchy ring to it !!?!

Rowdy says:

12:48pm | 03/11/09

Jane at 11.03am….you forgot the terribly scarey inflation genie that we were told by goose….sorry swann…was about to explode out of it’s bottle at the last election…..but ultimately it was still sound asleep in there…...until awakened by stimulus spending, house price increases and the rising dollar….

Jane says:

12:55pm | 03/11/09

H….no,  but the ‘people smugglers’ are/were….rubbing their hands together.
The ones sitting it out in Indonesia, however, were well aware….hence their ‘voyage’ after 5 years.
Classic ‘cause and effect’.

Pretend to deny the obvious…..others are slowly accepting it/the reality however.

Shane From Melbourne says:

01:01pm | 03/11/09

Vote for the idiots in the Labor party or the idiots in the Liberal party- what a choice….

peter says:

01:13pm | 03/11/09

Re poll;You now know that we know that you know you are talking crap.Go off and abuse a hostess if it makes you feel better.From now on it will be all downhill.

machugh says:

01:21pm | 03/11/09

H are you serious?  “The electorate see Rudd as an intellectual” - the only part of the electorate that sees Rudd as an intellectual is that which is unable to spell intellectual. Rudd thinks he is an intellectual and pretends to be one by prattling on in gibberish which even he does not understand. In reality Rudd is a chameleon - he will say and do whatever is necessary to remain popular, including claiming that his decisions will not be popular. As for bribing the bogans - have you heard of the “stimulus package”?

H says:

01:23pm | 03/11/09

Jane, correct me if I am wrong, but it seems your argument of cause and effect is:

Cause: Australia takes on new refugee/immigration policy percieved to be “softer”
Effect: More asylum seekers show up in Australia

As an alternative I suggest that:

Cause: Increased numbers of refugees worldwide as a result of conflicts in Afghanistan, Sudan & Sri Lanka. Evidence for this cause is found in the following UNHCR report:

UNHCR (2009).  Asylum levels and trends in industrialized countries 2008: Statistical Overview of Asylum Applications Lodged in Europe and selected Non-European Countries.  24 March 2009

Which shows that very large increases in global numbers of assylum seeker applications - Australia btw has a fairly small increase compared to many other nations.

Effect: Sri Lankans applying for Assylum in Australia.

As the Brisbane times reported on the weekend, there are 16 million refugees worldwide - 76 rocking up here doens’t suggest they are coming because of the policies of our government

Cameron Price-Austin says:

01:27pm | 03/11/09

By fence-straddling the asylum seeker issue, he alienated the liberal (lower case l) voters who think his approach is inhumane and alienated the conservatives who think his approach is too weak.

He would have been better off processing them onshore (as he campaigned to do during the election). Sure, he might have copped some political flak from the conservatives but at least he would have been consistent.

ShaneO says:

01:36pm | 03/11/09

Ah @H says:12:36pm: Radio Australia broadcasts into Sri Lanka….......

The same place the rest of the Asia Pacific gets information on Australia.

Jane says:

01:40pm | 03/11/09

H…you conveniently offer the ‘push’ theory whilst completely ignoring Rudd’s obvious ‘pull’ theory.
Plenty came and were coming before Howard effectively shut the door…he made harsh policy - they stopped. Do you think asylum seekers/country shoppers miraculously just disappeared in the world from the moment he did so?
They could go elsewhere ‘safe’...and did.

You ignore those that admit they have been in ‘safe’ Indonesia for 5 years that would RATHER come to Australia now that the policy is conveniently softened. How do you explain that? You can’t. You can pretend the new policy made no difference all you like. Fact is, it has.

I like how some like to bring up that Howard actually accepted more refugees..whilst concurrently claim there are more now from ‘‘push’ factors. Pfft, Like Rudd…you can’t have it both ways.
Rudd’s changed policy encouraged them back here…own it.

Matt says:

01:42pm | 03/11/09

I think Rudd has done an excellent job of not really making a solution on this. If Rudd makes a choice he can then get blamed for the choice. If I have learnt anything never never never make a choice. Always leave the options open, it better to be blamed for inaction than action and get the wrong outcome. Me tooism worked well until you are in Government, now we see an active policy of not having a policy or making a choice.

what the ALP have recognised it more about PR than policy. The coalition is still trying to fight it out in the paliament when it all about the advertising and hitting the commerical stations. Get on the brekky shows, Rove, 5th grader, get high profile people into the paliament.  They are making it less political but more entertainment based. It will at least see them thru 2 terms, pity about the country

Daniel says:

01:55pm | 03/11/09

With his “hardline but humane” asylum seeker policy he has shown that he is just another softer version of John Howard. He is not much different. With his position like the cartoon he is “Throwing out the baby with the bathwater”.

Old Clive says:

02:03pm | 03/11/09

If the present opposition is rabble, it would have been hard to finda name for this present government before the spinmerchants and unions paid for the massive media campaign before the last election. Rudd had no policies before the election and he has none now, why do you think he wants poor old Malcolm to put up the policies, the infrastrusture programme is from the previous government under a different name, some of the population can’t see the forest because of the trees and sad to say they wouldn’t know the difference unless the press told them.

H says:

02:10pm | 03/11/09

First @ Cameron Price Austin: Spot on in answer to the author’s original piece.

Second @) Shane O: I Don’t think Radio Australia gets much attention in Sri Lanka, heck most Australians feel “too busy” to listen to much radio and we don’t have a genocide to help distract us from keeping up on international affairs.

Third @ Jane: Re refugee numbers dropping due to Howard having “effectively shut the door” see this piece from Australian parliament library: http://www.aph.gov.au/Library/pubs/BN/sp/BoatArrivals.htm#_ftn42

It points out that refugee arrivals in Australia actually increased after the implementation of Howard’s TPV scheme. 

Onto, waiting 5 years in Indonesia - that was according to a note from one of the Oceanic Viking asylum seekers and said that they had been waiting 4-5 years in Indonesia. When someone is in a country as as a registered UNHCR refugee (according to the same oceanic viking author, the majority of Sri Lankans onboard have their UNHCR cards) they are not allowed to work or have their children sent to school. My guess is the reason Australia is a more attractive prospect than Indonesia is due to waiting 4-5 years without your child in School - made them give up on the Indonesian processing - they probably figured they had a better chance of getting processed in Oz than in Indonesia - I dare say they would have thought this even if Howard was still our PM. It’s not the change in Government policy - its a belief Australia is a faster processor than Indonesia (or Nairu for that matter).

And finally, the argument that there is no increased push factor, well to put it simply if you don’t believe there is more push - then you are in disagreement with the UNHCR which has tracked large increases in assylum seeker application globally since 2008. It’s not my opinion - its the UNHCR’s claim.

Yolanda says:

02:14pm | 03/11/09

Rudd takes responsibility for NOTHING! He always begins with “on advice given by blah blah blah” that covers his ass and also shows he doesn’t actually make decisions on anything. He is a DUDD and a PHONEY of a Prime Minister.

Jane says:

02:23pm | 03/11/09

We’re not talking just ‘78’ only here either, as some like to refer to.
“More than 12,000 boat people had landed here in the three years before the Tampa. Fewer than 200 landed in the five years after.
Already some 1700 people have landed here THIS YEAR, 10 times more than in 2008 and rising fast. Another 25 people have died in the attempt.”

The Afghani’s themselves in ‘safe’ Indonesia admitted they were coming here BECAUSE it was now different.
“In April, Iraqis who’d spent years in Indonesia told the ABC they would try sailing to Australia now that Rudd had softened our laws. “Kevin Rudd - he’s changed everything about refugee. If I go to Australia now, different,” one told the ABC.”

Deny it all you like…and as unpalatable the truth is….but it is so.

As to being ‘humane’.....those killed whilst blowing up their boat and those now drowned attempting the perilous voyage might disagree. But what’s more ‘telling’ is the silence from the very vocal self tagged moral superiors on the ‘humanity’ front from the Howard Hating era, bleeting daily on the travesties of Siev X…the Tony Kevins…the Kate Wildermuths .. Margo Kingston and her infamous ‘web diary’s’....where are all the other once vocal pseudo ‘humanitarians’ now with their equitable disdain and teeth gnashing? They’re about as hypocritical and believable as Rudd being an ‘economic conservative’.

Sharon says:

02:23pm | 03/11/09

Phil… because you don’t have a constructive argument on Asylum Seekers doesn’t give you an excuse to get nasty!!

ShaneO says:

02:28pm | 03/11/09

‘Second @) Shane O: I Don’t think Radio Australia gets much attention in Sri Lanka, heck most Australians feel “too busy” to listen to much radio and we don’t have a genocide to help distract us from keeping up on international affairs.’

Would have thought genocide would make Sri Lankans VERY focussed on international events if it aided their escape.

Gerald Ingles says:

02:28pm | 03/11/09

Labor spent 11 years out in the politcal wilderness without a policy and a credible Leader, and nothing has changed.

Jane says:

02:29pm | 03/11/09

aaah H, what had already come were processed afterwards….but actual BOATS with new arrivals well they virtually stopped.
Oops. But you know that. tsk

Jane says:

02:40pm | 03/11/09

I hope everyone clicked on ‘H’s link…it proves my point.
1999–00
75 boats
4175 people
2000–01
54 boats
4137 people

2001–02
19 boats
3039 people
2002–03
0 boats
0 people
2003–04
3 boats
82 people
2004–05
0 boats
0 people

Under Howard’s 2001 Pacific Solution - I’d say boats pretty much STOPPED.

Blokey1 says:

03:59pm | 03/11/09

Did anyone make any fuss when white South Africans and White Rhodesians flew into Australia for refuge?  That says all. It is not people, it has a ring of racism. All you worry about is boat people because In truth they are all black. Turnbull will revive the pacific solution without a doubt.  How else will he command support?

Steve of Cornubia says:

04:08pm | 03/11/09

Just when did illegal immigrants become asylum seekers? This name-change was obviously crafted to generate sympathy for people who simply want to jump the queue. The whole point here is asking people to respect Australia’s laws and our right to grant access to those we believe need it most. This country generously accepts immigrants in their thousands every year, and pulls its weight overseas wherever aid is required, so I see no problem when we refuse easy entry to people who will NOT say where they’re from, will NOT produce evidence of identity and more or less INSIST that we take them in place of others who follow the rules (because every illegal we accept displaces another would-be immigrant who applies through legal channels).

This is not about our fair/unfair treatment of asylum seekers, it is about OUR right to choose who lives here and an expectation that our laws will be observed. Not much to ask, really.

Matt says:

04:23pm | 03/11/09

I really wonder about Newspoll results. There was a growing chorus of bloggers asking who they were polling to get 70% approval ratings for Rudd, because it’s getting more and more difficult to find anyone who approves of Rudd.  Not long after these comments were getting more and more frequent they publish a poll on the same day as Nielsen with the Newspoll result marginally more favourable to the coalition. So, I wonder if we will see Rudd in some grand spin exercise over the next two weeks, and low and behold Newspoll will have him back at 70%. 

It’s a shame for Australia that Turnbull is so useless at the “game of politics” that Rudd and Carr et al have mastered so well. He would be a great leader. Turnbull is highly intelligent, has a record of achievement in a range of areas, is capable of digesting complex information and acting with foresight, and, according to people who actually know him, is an honest and compassionate man. Clearly not suitable qualifications for PM in our current political environment.

catherine says:

04:31pm | 03/11/09

well peoples…at the end of the day, it doesn’t matter who you vote for, the government always gets in!

H says:

04:35pm | 03/11/09

Jane, I’m not saying it increased boat arrivals - its about asylum seekers regardless of method of arrival.  Numbers of asylum seekers increased under TPV’s - whether by plane, train or automobile. I don’t think people choose a leaky boat over an aircraft because of government policy - I think they choose what they can afford.

But again, I suggest this correlates closely to world events more than policy, regardless of the colour of government.

The point is this, objectively, asylum seeker applications increases and decreases in Australia correlate closely to UNHCR worldwide increases and decreases in asylum seekers.

Subjectively I interpret that to mean that asylum seeker applications are influenced more by world events like conflict than they are by a politicians from Grifftth, Bennelong or Wentworth.

Subjectively I also doubt the ascertation that people in kind of situations that cause them to flee their home state are aware of Australian immigration policy - what convincing argument is there that people facing armed conflict pay attention to Australian immigration policy? Heck even Aussies rate our own immigration policy as less important than the economy, water, interest rates ect. The concept that a person in a conflict torn country is familiar with Aussie immigration policy doesn’t convince me - its seems abusrdly Australian-centric. Other people in the world don’t follow Aussie immigration policy - even most Aussies don’t.

April says:

04:36pm | 03/11/09

I think Turnbull has the goods, he just needs more political experience which he is getting. He won’t win the next election but if stays with it and finds his political legs he maybe in the running after another term of this idiot.

Joe says:

04:58pm | 03/11/09

People basically don’t respect Rudd now that they realise there is nothing behind the spin and that he stands for nothing but the attainment of power.

Lenny says:

05:11pm | 03/11/09

This poll proves what happens when the media make the Government the issue and not the Opposition. The media decide who will be popular and who won’t.

Z says:

05:14pm | 03/11/09

This has nothing to do with border security, after all, as far as I can see, the boats are all being intercepted. How proud the Liberal party must be feeling to know that they are enjoying a surge of popularity based on the politics of the demonisation of vulnerable people and fear again.  The Australian newspaper and the rest of its satellites must be feeling so happy with that they have finally found an issue to fight against the government.

Dave Bath says:

05:17pm | 03/11/09

I’d like to see a breakdown of the following two questions in a poll:
(a) Generally, are you more likely to give higher preference to Labor, Liberal, or are you a swinging voter?
(b) Given the choice of a Labor government led by Turnbull or a Liberal government led by Rudd, which would you prefer?

CUPPA says:

05:46pm | 03/11/09

Kevin Rudd is so useless as a prime minister it is quite scary.Personally i think you would have to be an imbecile to think he is doing a good job.

Lorne says:

05:53pm | 03/11/09

Oh Voxbox and John Neve, Kinny’s friend has stated known FACT. The hospital system is in crisis and Rudd hasn’t taken over as promised, funding for future doctors is up in the air and there is no consensus as to where the money is gonna come from, medicare is cutting cataract/joint injections which affect real people, the boat people situation is a shameful mark on Australia. If micromanager Rudd isn’t responsible, who is? John Howard? These are facts and the PM is where the buck stops, defend him if you want but don’t deny the facts, it makes you look silly *smile*

Matt says:

05:55pm | 03/11/09

Z, how proud are you that the moral grandstanding by people like you led our popularity driven PM to change the immigration policy that has resulted in people dying at sea. You are trying to demonise politicians and people who appreciate that feel good, self indulgent, soft policies can have very harsh, very real consequences for the vulnerable people you wish to help.

Vince says:

06:08pm | 03/11/09

Rudd is starting to scare me too CUPPA.

Voxpop says:

06:33pm | 03/11/09

Dave Bath
(a) swinging voter (well I will admit to voting Howard in 1996 but by 2001 I absolutely loathed him)
(b) Labor w/ Turnbull (mainly because there are so many in the Liberal mob that I have huge reservations about and also I believe I’m attracted more to the basic ideals of Labour) I also see it as a team in control rather than one person (I mean look at Turnbull with the ETS negotiations - the whole party have to come to a majority concensus and then the leader gets to look like a leader but if they don’t agree well everything looks pretty stupid).  Still I used to think Turnbull was OK untill utegate and some interview with his wife in his office just as they found out the email was a fake.  I don’t really have any feelings toward Rudd personally which is why I can’t quite get the way some of you get all worked up about some kind of perceived personal flaws - it’s OTT and weird like some girl in highschool that did you wrong and you have to irrationally attack everything about her LOL

John A Neve says:

06:49pm | 03/11/09

Lorne Says @ 1746hrs.
This is not about politics, it’s about poor government. Our health system has been in crisis for at least 10 years. Medicare has one of two options,
cut rebates or raise the levy, take your pick.
As to asylum seekers, Australia, rightly or wrongly signed on to UN conventions, this was pre the Rudd government. As a result there is no solution that will please everybody. Based on all current data the situation will only get worse, we need to address the cause, not the effect.
Does this make you feel silly?

Mike C says:

07:57pm | 03/11/09

So John what you are saying is that any politician can say they didn’t start the problem thus it is not their problem to solve it? We elected Rudd to solve problems not hear excuses. Medicare isn’t about rebates or levies alone, administration, providing transitional beds, implementing evidence based staffing ratio, working with the private system etc all play a role in reducing costs. A good leader would understand the problem before trying to solve it, instead of just jumping in without understanding the complex and dynamics involved.
Rudd has been in for almost 2 years what excuse can he give other then imcompetence?

Wombat says:

08:12pm | 03/11/09

That’s hilarious, Matt. If ‘moral grandstanding’ by people like Z has resulted in people dying at sea, then thank God we have people like you who want a tougher approach to asylum seekers for their own good. Maybe we could withdraw from the UN treaties we have signed on refugees. Or we could pretend to honour those treaties while keeping little kids locked up behind razor wire for 10 years. That will really help them.
It is really sad to see how many people have so much time to devote to their passionate hatred of the latest wave of boat people. I have never been a supporter of the Tamil resistance in Sri Lanka. But if I have to choose sides between them and the pathetic, bitter people who are desperate to see them kept out of my country, it will be an easy choice.

Matt says:

08:35pm | 03/11/09

Mike C, you’re spot on. Rudd actually said in his election campaign “the buck stops with me”. 2 years may not be enough time to fix everything, but it is enough time to make a difference and see some improvements. Instead, things are getting worse and all we get from Rudd is the Carr’esque hard hat media rubbish that has left NSW in a hole. Personally, I think all politicians should be banned from wearing hard hats and fluro vests. It is an insult to the many people who actually work for a living. In fact, extend that ban to holding up pictures in Parliament of the real work done by tradespeople as if Rudd or Gillard are due any credit for that.

Jim says:

10:37pm | 03/11/09

kevin and his crew have got (which also means we’ve got) problems in many areas.
These problems will be compounded beacause, whenever the next election is called Labor will be voted back in.
The Liberals are I believe unelectable. As a predominantly Liberal voter, I (and I know am not an orphan)  will not vote for a party who are little different to Labor in putting the economic well being of this country at risk.
If economic suicide is to be the name of the game, then I would much rather see the ensuing fiasco sheeted home to Labor.
One could live in hope that at some future stage there may be a revitalised Liberal party worth voting for that might be capable of bringing back a measure of economic sanity.

Matt says:

11:32pm | 03/11/09

Wombat, nothing about this situation is hilarious. I believe you are probably well intentioned, but you’re regurgitating irrelevant emotional arguments.  There are several opportunities for you to make a difference to the world’s refugees. You could dedicate some of your time and money working in refugee camps around the world, or you could engage in a campaign to have the government increase our annual intake of refugees, or work with newly arrived refugees who are suffering all sorts of trauma. However, when you advocate a ready acceptance of all people who can manage to enter Australia’s migration zone by boat, you are inadvertently encouraging many more to risk their lives trying. Some will die in the process. You may not want to accept responsibility for the consequences of your actions, but you are kidding yourself in denying the connection. I have no hatred of anyone,  sadly you seem to have a livid hatred of any of your fellow Australians who are not as naive as you.

Wombat says:

12:11am | 04/11/09

Sorry Matt, but what are the ‘irrelevant emotional arguments’ that I was regurgitating? That we should either honour the treaties that we have signed or withdraw from them? Or that one of the alternative policies would be to lock kids up behind razor wire for 10 years? Would this still be an ‘irrelevant emotional argument’ if it was your kids? Perhaps what makes it an ‘irrelevant emotonal argument’ is that it’s not your kids.
Thanks for your advice about doing something myself. My plane leaves on Thursday. I had already bought the ticket but your encouragement is appreciated.
As for other Australians, I feel pretty good about them right now. We won the last election and it looks like we will win the next, which proves that most of us are decent, intelligent people. This is my country, and it is a great time to be an Australian.

Rod says:

07:55am | 04/11/09

The true Rudd finally exposed. Weak on borders and an economic vandal.

AM says:

11:53am | 04/11/09

The is no truth in the argument that the government is encouraging asylum seekers to come back..  I challenge anyone to tell me exactly how processing people more efficiently is seen as pull factor. So treat them like crap and they won’t come. Is this the argument now? The Pacific solution did not keep them away… most of the Tamils were still in Sri Lanka while the uprising was going on.  This uprising just happened to end during this year and falls within the time frame of a changed government policy. So it is not rocket science and all you yahoos who reckon that we should go back to the Pacific solution are kidding themselves. What is even more distressing is hearing a politician like Abbott who actually uses a tragedy where people (yes they are actually people) including children may have drowned to make a cheap political point. More sickening is that journalist who asked the PM if he had “blood on his hands”,  Can we keep the Fox News tactics as taught by the “Rush Limbaugh school of journalism” out of Australia please!!!!

Susan says:

11:55am | 04/11/09

Statistically, 1 in every 20 polls using the same methodology will lie outside the margin of error (i.e. be more than 3 percentage points wrong). 1 in 100 will be more than 4 percentage points wrong. Given the incredible consistency of Newspolls in recent months, and the sudden enormous jump, I’d wager a dud poll, and that much if not all of this shift will move back in a fortnight. Until this result is replicated, either by Newspoll in a fortnight or by another pollster, I would take precisely no meaning from it.

Badger says:

12:58pm | 04/11/09

Should be KEVIN O KEVIN, what the hell do you think you are up too, go back to your old mates in China & ask them what to do, they would soon sort out the Boat People, send them back or put them in Gaol, out of site, out of mind and no representation or legal defense to help them.
In my 82 years I have had taken away from me,
1.  Having some say who comes into this country to live with us, never a Referendum.
2. Giving the Aboriginals the legal rights to drink Alcohol, & look what that did to them as a Race, decimated them .
3. Get a fishing license to fish in the open sea, thank heavens I am old enough not having to pay this one.
4. Having all my Guns declared illegal, and make me feel like a criminal for having them, who is going to shoot all these people tying to get into MY COUNTRY illegally .
5. Having to wear a life jacket every time I get in a dingy to go out fishing, what the hell, it’s my life, butt out, been doing it all my life since 4 years old.
6. Stop wrapping us all up in Cotton Wool, some of us do have a mind of our own, and will take responsibility for ourselves.
7.  Stop all this Litigation going on , all that you are doing is feeding the Legal Eagles, and most Poly’s are one of those.  Let us use our Common Sense, although it is not very Common these days with Pro-Bono Legalese alive and feeding on the scraps.
  I could go on for hours, but may run out of time.
  Wake up Kruddie, get on with it and stop spending all MY MONEY as you have been doing.

Terry says:

01:19pm | 04/11/09

Hey Vox Pop re Janes comments to you…Cat suddenly got your tongue its a 2 way street Mr Smug..

Voxpop says:

01:41pm | 04/11/09

Terry not that it has anything to do with you but I don’t have to reply to Jane’s off-topic rant just like I don’t bother replying to Eric’s one sided rants about feminism.  I come here to put up my opinion and be counted simple as that.

Robert Smissen says:

02:55pm | 04/11/09

It would appear that Little Kevvy has reached the “you can’t fool all of the people, all of the time” phase. Is Kevin Whitlam’s love child as he seems to be using Gough as a blueprint

Carl Palmer says:

03:15pm | 04/11/09

I also think that the PM background comes to the forefront. He is a bureaucrat, speaks like a bureaucrat, behaviours’ like one, thinks like one and pushes other bureaucrat into the public eye e.g. Ken Henry. Ken Henry speaks more on the economy than the silly treasurer.  He has also become the mouthpiece of the PM – something the Treasurer is unable to do. If I didn’t know who authored and delivered ‘‘The Shape of Things to Come’’ for Australia speech I’d swear that it was the PM but alas it was Ken Henry.

That’s the nub of the issue for me.

There is no doubt that Ken Henry is a talented individual but it is the Government that should be explaining to me ** their decisions **. Ken Henry wasn’t elected to parliament. As someone has already noted, the PM’s ability to make decisions - particularly those unpopular ones, is almost impossible. Could it be that the PM is primarily interested in getting re-elected (remaining popular) and leaving the detail and explaining to some other competent individual. Maybe it was also the fact that he had one huge reality check one morning and discovered that it isn’t as easy as he thought it was – eg the fuel & grocery watch initiatives. They roll off the tongue really easy, but a tad difficult to implement.

As each day passes my belief that the current PM is not a leader grows and this is sad for this awesome country. And finally – on the rare occasions when the opposition sort of gets its act together – which IS rare, the government starts to look pretty wobbly and why am I not surprised.

H says:

02:31pm | 05/11/09

Am I the only one, guessing by the way certain bloggers come on here with very short comments of anti-Kev or pro their right wing blogging mates - that is starting to suspect Liberal party electorate office staff come on here during the day? Any way to trace the IPs?

Joel B1 says:

06:58pm | 05/11/09

H: “Am I the only one… that is starting to suspect Liberal party electorate office staff come on here during the day? Any way to trace the IPs?”

Bizarre! And indicative of a particular malady afflicting those whose God’s clothing are starting to get just a little transparent.

Kim says:

09:27am | 06/11/09

H - You seem to be unable to contemplate that some people are changing their minds about your Kevie. You can’t have it all your way all the time. It doesn’t matter who makes comments, it’s open to all. You either agree or disagree, whats the problem. For almost 2 years we have only read and heard bad press and comments of the opposition and Turnbull. So they for the moment are out of the limelight and Kev is getting a bit of scrutiny, poor Kev eh!. I’ve noticed browsing around comments on other articles, you have been posting this same comment. A tad paranoide you seem.

H says:

11:17am | 06/11/09

Kim, not my Kevie. I deeply disagree with him on assylum seekers and I’ve voted differently in every state and federal election.

It’s not having different opinions that bothers me, its the slogans (as you checked in other threads, you should be aware I was worried just as much about Labor hacks as I was about Libs). Nothing wrong with a differing opinion I just think the addition of “Kevin 07 yay!” and “Government is a shambles - Turbull is the way!” shows threads being populated by hacks who would be better off leaving the punch alone and not dragging down the debate.