餵。我的名字是凱文,我有一個非常大的問題 (Translation: Hello, my name is Kevin and I have a very big problem).

Oh how Kevin Rudd must be wishing right now for a dirty stoush with, oh, let’s say Malaysia, or Indonesia, or even better, one of the African nations.

How terribly unlucky for the Prime Minister that his first bona fide diplomatic crisis involves China. Our man in Beijing is facing calls to personally intervene in the case of Australian Rio Tinto executive Stern Hu, who’s being held without charge by Chinese authorities on suspicion of commercial espionage.

The Mandarin-speaking Sinophile who had rooms full of Chinese students eating out of the palm of his hand and the 2007 APEC meeting stunned at his international man of mystery shtick, now has to come up with the goods.

A show down with Hu Jintao is not what Mr Rudd’s media team ordered, which might explain why the only Government type out and about on the issue yesterday was Lindsay Tanner. While there is a financial element to this story (a fall in Australian resources stocks has been attributed to nerves about our trading relationship), it would have been nice to hear from someone other than the Finance Minister.

The PM’s team would not have been too pleased with reports the operation that nabbed Mr Hu was approved by none other than the Chinese president himself. This has led to reams of analysis about the root cause of the crisis, China’s motives, and what Kevin Rudd can do about it.

Glenn Milne argued yesterday Mr Rudd may have even brought the situation upon himself by first cozying up to the Chinese so much he then had to do an about-face and actively snub them because of how things were playing in the electorate at home.

You can bet the Opposition will be encouraging that same electorate to keep a very close eye on what happens to Mr Hu. And any outcome other than a strategic diplomatic win by Australia will leave a large chunk of Kevin Rudd’s carefully constructed image looking like just that - a careful construction.

In 2007 there was something a bit glamorous about Mr Rudd’s China syndrome. He even romanticised the rats in the apartment he and his young bride Therese shared in Beijing early in their marriage, when Mr Rudd was a junior diplomat.

He and his campaign team exploited his understanding of and affection for China as a very clear point of difference between Mr Rudd and John Howard, who in so many other ways were so similar.

Yes he might have been a nerdy economic conservative (this was before the Global Financial Crisis outed Mr Rudd’s penchant for humongous Government Debt) with glasses and pigeon toes, but he was no John Howard - he could speak Mandarin, you know.

With China ascendant a lot of people would have thought it would be an excellent thing for Australia to have a PM with walk-in rights in the offices of the PRC’s political elite. So it’s pretty understandable people now expect him to use any pull he has and get Mr Hu released.

The diplomatic crunch has comes on top of Mr Rudd’s embarrassing faux pas at the G8, where he demonstrated again his tendency to say one thing in public and another thing altogether behind closed doors.

For a trained diplomat, his skills in international diplomacy are looking a bit shaky.

Of course, if the Chinese do right by Mr Rudd and release Mr Hu quickly, we shouldn’t begrudge the Government a modest amount of gloating.

But the longer the situation wears on, the more markers by which Mr Rudd’s China credentials can be measured will be passed, and the more voters may question his ability to deliver.

It is a situation he created himself.

36 comments

Show oldest | newest first

    • scot says:

      08:36am | 14/07/09

      The political commentariat have no idea what they are talking about in regard to Rudd and China - the “sinophile” rubbish is just cheap labelling instead of proper analysis. Chine can throw its weight around because it is rich and powerful. We are not sending a gunboat to Shanghai to free Mr. Hu, and suggestions which amount to the same are ver insensitive towards the Chinese for reasons you should be able to work out on your own.  We are not powerful, so we have to tread carefully - that’s just called reality.

      This is a prime minister who oversaw a serious defence strategy review that clearly identifies China as the major strategic challenge to be met in the coming years. The man obviously has a far better grasp of the realities of our relationship with the rest of the world that most of the commentariat has of even the utmost raw basics of international politics. It’s pathetic.

    • Roy Crabb says:

      09:03am | 14/07/09

      We certainly don’t want a TurnBULL in a China shop.  Every time the coalition open their collective mouths it harms Australia.

    • Pricey says:

      09:07am | 14/07/09

      SCOT….. You have got to be kidding. Mr Rudd has at every chance in his short career as PM, used his position to impress and induce political influence over Chinese nationals, Chinese Australians and any body else who is impressed by his fluency in another language.
      At every opportune time he has sought to prove his competence and ability to interact with China at a level above that of any other PM. As an Australian citizen i have expected more from him than trying to deflect his lack of public action back to Malcolm Turnbull.
      For a PM to place himself so high on the world stage as a major player in world affairs, i think it ludicrous that he should “tread carefully”. Our ability to directly influence maybe limited however if we are seen to be making a stand then i am sure other “powerful” nations will be supportive.

    • iansand says:

      09:32am | 14/07/09

      The best way to completely wreck a negotiation with any Chinese organisation is to put its representatives in a position where they have to make a definitive decision before they have to.  Ultimatums and either/or propositions are counter-productive.  A lesson a few journalists and the Opposition have yet to learn.  If you adopt the Bishop Turnbull approach of demanding stuff Mr Hu will be in a distant gulag, at best, for quite some time.

    • Gerald says:

      10:06am | 14/07/09

      Pick up the phone Mr Rudd!
      I think we are getting a little sick of Labor using every opportunity it has to throw mud at Turnbull. Instead of taking any action on anything, and dealing with the issues at hand, they’re more concerned about mouthing off about Turnbull. Turnbull must still make Rudd nervous! Toughen up Rudd and pick up the phoe.

    • Patrick says:

      10:11am | 14/07/09

      If Rudd was suddenly revealed to be Jesus Christ himself Glenn Milne would still find a way to argue against him.

    • chandra says:

      10:12am | 14/07/09

      Seems the Rudd govt. is making the wrong moves.
      Couple of months ago, we had our prime minister brag openly about the efforts he had made to get the bar mat thief mum get released.
      And now, in a situation where the govt. should have protected its entreprenurial and business personnel, its giving all the excuses it can think of.
      This leads us to believe that:
      the govt. considers a great job done by pulling out some stunts and then during the critical bouts, all the ministers etc. would either not respond or excuse themselves…
      And this reflects really bad on our future prospects of grooming good entreprenuers…and the wisdom of electing such a govt. which acts at its own interests,brags about its accomplishments(how little and insignificant they may be) and bad mouth its skeptics and critics.

    • dr greg says:

      10:30am | 14/07/09

      The only conclusion I can reach is that Turnbull et al are in on the game, and their hamfisted rantings are designed to make the Government look even more deliberate and careful in the situation, if not, their outbursts are stupid beyond belief and illustrate their total lack of suitability for any level of government.

    • Peter B says:

      10:40am | 14/07/09

      Maybe Rudd could set up ANOTHER enquiry, ANOTHER study group and have ANOTHER chat fest and ANOTHER discussion about China’s relationship with Australia. Then we can wait a little longer and see what his advisors and media people think would be the most popular decision with the voters! Then give it a name like “The China Australia Revolution”. Then wait until the next polls to see how he is going. Then he can pick up the phone and speak Mandarin to the Chinese President and see if Hu is still over there locked up somewhere.

    • Richard says:

      12:01pm | 14/07/09

      I had hoped this article would not be just another opportunity to bash Rudd and display the media’s usual shallow political cynicism, opportunism and bias, rather than deal with a serious issue on its merits, but unfortunately the former is exactly what it is.  And what’s worse, it’s not even original, but merely a rehash of a particularly tendentious piece (even by his standards) by Glenn Milne in yesterday’s Oz.  I wonder whether it is at all possible for many in the political media just this once to get away from viewing all issues through the narrow prism of Australian partisan politics and press gallery gotcha journalism and to consider the broader implications of the issue.  Probably not.

    • G says:

      12:42pm | 14/07/09

      Sorry Punch but you are going to loose what little audience you have if this is the best you can do.  I come here looking for intelligent analysis, detail and knowledge and am not able to find it in most of your articles - this is so far the worst.  I don’t want a rehash or cross promotion of News.com.au and that is all you’re doing.  Thanks to those posting comments as they’re more intelligent and have a better understanding than the article - shout outs to Scot, Iansand and Richard.  Otherwise disappointing and waste of time.

    • Geoff Cass says:

      12:51pm | 14/07/09

      KRudd is obviously hoping that someone else will actually DO something whilst he is on “sort-of leave”.
      Because it is becoming clearer by the day that Rudd is totally incapable of doing ANYTHING to free Mr. Hu and his employees.
      And despite all the “Look at me, I can tell everyone, even the Pope, what to do and how to do it” bravado, not a word, and cedrt6aibnly no action.
      And there are actually some brain-dead fools who supoport this lump of trash ?

    • Mark B says:

      01:11pm | 14/07/09

      The assumption of the writer is that Mr Hu and Rio Tinto are innocent of charges yet to be be enunciated. The Chinese are clearly insulted by the collapse of the Rio/Chinalco deal, which Rio should never have considered in the first place; but they did and they created an expectation. Rio dudded Chinalco in favour of a secret deal with BHP, to become part of the largest iron ore supply enterprises in the world. Now the expected 40% price reductions to more historical levels have collapsed, and it looks possible the Chinese may not even get the 33% reduction that the Japanese got. One might expect China to be a little frustrated, to say the least. If Rio or its employees, against that background, are found to have broken any Chinese law, then heaven help them, because the Rio Board will do a Pontius Pilate, as the Qantas Board did over the freight cartel which landed a middle ranking Australian “executive” in a US jail, and as the AWB Board did over the wheat bribes. Australian companies have form, and yet we have Mr Turnbull, of all people, and Ms Bishop expressing outrage over the jailed “executive”. It’s nothing less than embarrassing.

    • Barry Farr says:

      01:34pm | 14/07/09

      Mark B - and what would you like the Government to do if it was you locked up in China?

    • watty says:

      02:06pm | 14/07/09

      Never fear, Prime Minister Rudd will possibly take the reins on Hu’s release after he returns from his well deserved few days “personal leave”

      Foreign Affairs Minister Stephen Smith is being busy and important in Cairo lobbying Third World Countries for their vote to secure Kevin a seat at the “Big Boys” table at the U.N

      But never fear Simon Crean has told the Chinese to stick to the rules (who’s is not quite clear)

      The Australian public never made a big deal about Kevin and China before he boasted about his “special relationship”  and ability to speak Mandarin.

      That didn’t impress me and it certainly hasn’t impressed the Chinese Government.

      What’s the betting that after Mr Hu is released there will be rumours of a phone call from Kevin?

    • Dallas Beaufort says:

      02:19pm | 14/07/09

      Labors left Green pandering to political correct models of government are to blame for this immoveable feast (dogs breakfast ) trade tragedy, as China knows that green labors global warming folly (artificial trade barriers being erected) for all political cause and negative economic effects deliver higher prices with no additional productivity. Where are the examples of enlightenment in labors policies of state intervention, nowhere, except to hark back to failed social models championing old, failed, state control systems. And while possibly a new China and especially its people look to shake off this failed and outdated control model with all its no growth negativity, green labor moves in the wrong directions. Choice is a word left green labor abhors.

    • Mark B says:

      02:19pm | 14/07/09

      Barry, there is very little the Government can do quickly. If I was doing business in China or anywhere else in Asia, or Russia, or the Balkans, I would be very, very careful not to do anything that might upset the local authorities. I was first in China not long after Tiananman Square and you could not get any of the locals to comment. Change will occur, but slowly. Compared to them, we are a very lucky country and we cannot assume that they act the way we are used to here. Even our friends in the US punish savagely for crime, corporate or otherwise. In other places, you can lose your life at the end of a rope or a gun barrel. If it were me, I’d try to get used to the likelihood of a long stay, but let’s see how it folds out. Threatening the Chinese government will just keep him there longer, or worse.

    • Marilyn says:

      02:58pm | 14/07/09

      Let me advise you to wander down to the Villawood concentration camp and ask to visit any of the 100 or so Chinese nationals locked up who have been banged up without trial or charge, some for years, for daring to ask for refugee protection here.

      Your determined to make every little thing Rudd ‘s fault just because he speaks Chinese.

      Howard and Bush both sort of spoke English but that didn’t get Hicks and Habib released from Gitmo did it?

    • Kurisu Sonsaku says:

      03:42pm | 14/07/09

      Geez Marilyn - Villawood concentration camp????, (why do you recycle the same swill each day on different blogs).

      “Rudd ‘s fault just because he speaks Chinese.” - well,  junior diplomat rudd made a big deal out of his special relationship with China and his mandarin speaking ability, so yes i’ll blame him. Of course now that he’s getting a diplomatic b#tch slap from China he has to rush off on leave, wow what a caring diplomat he is.

      Nice to see it’s JWH & GWBs fault, you always manage to include them somehow.

    • Richard says:

      03:44pm | 14/07/09

      Head for the hills!! Marilyn is here!  She’ll relate it all somehow to SIEV X and a giant conspiracy to kill boat people.  Please Marilyn, go and play somewhere else - the adults are talking about important things.

    • IJK says:

      03:58pm | 14/07/09

      I suspect this is like the proverbial duck on the pond - not much happening within view, but the worker bees at DFAT are paddling like crazy below the surface.

      BTW, I see Marilyn is back - exiled from Crikey, but now pops up here. Oh well, always good for a laugh.

    • watty says:

      05:46pm | 14/07/09

      Must have got it wrong Marilyn but I think I read someplace that Hicks entered a guilty plea to supplying material support for terrorism ?

    • phil says:

      06:13pm | 14/07/09

      Richard 2.44 so your a grown up are you.  marilyn has her right to be heard and she is right about hicks. Howard did nothing 4 hicks until the public polls changed and that is the most disgusting thing. It took 2 years 4 the australian consulit to contact hicks and we have bishop on her high horse having a go at labor.May be a jorno could ask bishop why they let hicks rot in jail and did not demand his release

    • Razor says:

      06:52pm | 14/07/09

      Marilyn - I’m sure the Taliban could use some more human shileds in Helmund Province, Afghanistan.  Off you go.

    • Patricia WA says:

      07:01pm | 14/07/09

      What a silly comment among many others in your post, Tory Maguire, that a “showdown with Hu Jin Tao was the last thing” Rudd and his advisers would have wanted.  Of course it is and it it’s the last thing that you, the Coalition and all Australians should want.  This is not good for any of us and for Malcolm Turnbull to be exploiting it for political gain is “un-Australian” and unhelpful to the plight of Stern Hu.  Your sweeping and juvenile comments about our PM’s diplomatic skills are breathtakingly ill-informed.  He is doing exactly what the situation requires - refraining from public comment while our diplomats do the job they’re trained for in the national interest and in the particular interest of an Australian citizen.
      Turnbull and Bishop are making that job harder with their grandstanding on this issue.  As are commentators like yourself, Glen Milne and Janet Albrechtson.

    • Louise O says:

      08:11pm | 14/07/09

      Regarding Mr Hu being held by the Chinese authorities in China, where was Mr Turnbull when the Australian liberal government brought 14 day preventive detention into law? Mr Turnbull was not arguing for habeas corpus then.

    • Wang Chung says:

      11:49am | 15/07/09

      You all seem to forget one thing….what if he is guilty? He must then serve Jail time. Rudd or nobody else is above international law. I can assure you this will be made an example of as this is far from being the Philippines. China is trying to portray a non corrupt facade…..which is well alive and thriving particularly leading up to 2010 expo. The more publicity this gets the slower a resolution will be and the longer it will take for evidence to be presented. Things are done very differently here in China. Stern Hu is gone as China would lose too much face even if he were innocent. Back off media!!

    • Larry says:

      11:57am | 15/07/09

      What a shame we have to deal with China at all!

    • Peter from Brisbane says:

      12:14pm | 15/07/09

      I am reading with interest how all the entries, comments and opinions are in all the blogs, about Hu.Everybody thinks that this incarceration is to do with the failed Chinalco bid, and that China is playing “sore losers”. Mind you I find these views quite understandable given all that we have been subjec ted to.
      However, I havent read anywhere that could there be a possibility, remote or otherwise that Hu could actually be a villain and not all that he has been so far portrayed, you know ” a senior Executive from a major Australian Company”, blah blah etc, I think that over the years many such executives have broken the laws of some countries thay have visited, and they have been held to account for it, and rightly so. You don’t have to be a drug addicted backpacking hoon to break the law do you?  You could be a suit

    • peter from Brisbane says:

      12:23pm | 15/07/09

      The Libs particularly,  Julie Bishop and to a lesser extent Malcolm Turnbull, should back off quacking on that because Hu is a Senior Executive with a major Australian company, that he should be immediately released. What if he is a law breaker. He could be. The Libs could walk into a minefield here until we find out (if ever) what the issues are. But anyway the Libs are good at tripping over their garbage.  I mean senior execitives break the law just as much as .low life felons do. Lets just hasten slowly.

    • Andrew says:

      01:26pm | 15/07/09

      Krudd, our PM in transit from some tax payer funded Junket is not a hostage negotiator, he’s hardly more than a funeral dressed traveling salesman.  Just because he speaks Mandarin doesn’t make him the right person to help this poor fellow out.  Krudd is hardly going to put Australia’s trading relationship on the line because of one guy- sorry to say and PRC know this.

    • Quincy says:

      01:59pm | 15/07/09

      Hu became an Australian citizen but has only spent a few months of his life in Australia. Would anyone be interested in finding out how that is possible, especially since some of you mentioned Villawood?

    • mick says:

      05:54pm | 15/07/09

      And again as he and the labor party have done for a year and half have blamed John Howard.When is the labor party going to start taking responsibility for their actions.I don’t know why the Australian people are not on the streets marching against these lying and deceiving criminals who haven’t kept a single election promise.And the Obama government is exactly the same.Maybe the Muslim world is right about one thing and that is that western governments are crooks and rotten to the core.

    • Paul says:

      06:32pm | 15/07/09

      What do people in the UK call a conservative politician Tory?

      I suggest we send Glenn Milne over to China, he could maybe assault someone or something useful like that.

      Seriously though, everyone needs to take a step back from party politics and let this incident run its course. The Chinese will do as they please and degrading Rudd or Howard will make no difference.

    • Tory Maguire

      Tory Maguire says:

      06:42pm | 15/07/09

      Wow Paul - you’re the first person who’s ever made that joke about my name, or at least the first person in the past 10 minutes. Genius.

    • Miantiao says:

      11:34am | 21/07/09

      Australians are breaking laws all over the world in the service of Australia’s national interest. Such people are called ‘assets’ and form a vital part in.Australia’s efforts to get the best possible trade outcomes. Every nation does this, its no secret.

      Hu is not one of them, but he may know one. Information gathered on Chinese steel mills not only give the upperhand to ore suppliers such as rio, but also the Aust govt who would have had the last word on the Chinalco deal.  If BHP and rio had not come to an agreement, the info gathered on the Chinese Steel Mills alone would have prompted the govt to reject the deal because Rio were confident the market would soon improve and thus attract investment dollars from elsewhere.

      The Chinese are pissed off because they never saw it coming. Ironically the Chinese gargantuan stimulus package is currently driving ore prices up.

      Poor timing, had the CCP delayed stimulus spending a couple of months, the govt may well have had to give Chinalco the go-ahead.

 

Punch live

Up to the minute Twitter chatter

David Penberthy

Time to put this summer of cricket out of its misery, writes Anthony Sharwood. Hear hear! http://bit.ly/9OLM07

David Penberthy

@geoffb oh, diddums.

David Penberthy

@Adam_Sims hell yeah. the recent past of australian tennis is in doubt!

David Penberthy

Libs reckon the future of australian tennis is in doubt due to rudd's ETS. They're smoking the same stuff as screaming lord monckton #qt

Gentle jabs to the ribs

US Superbowl: now with ad breaks worth watching

US Superbowl: now with ad breaks worth watching

Usually, when it comes to watching your favourite sport or movie on television, ads are the last thing… Read more

8 comments

Newsletter

Read all about it

Sign up to the free daily Punch newsletter