I have long thought that historians have a role to play in Australia’s policymaking process. In particular, I have wondered about historians’ potential for warning political parties against bad policies.

History never repeats. US President Harry Truman meeting with Israeli President Chaim Weizmann, 1948.

Recently, I have begun to think that historians might be able to move beyond advice on good or bad policy, and also offer advice on good or bad politics. These are not random musings. I am an international historian teaching at the University of Western Sydney. An Australian citizen, I have only recently returned to Australia after spending ten years in Japanese academia. During that time, I spent much time wishing – admittedly forlornly – that someone in the Rudd Cabinet would seek my advice concerning Australian-Japanese relations.

Whaling seems to push mercifully few of PM Julia Gillard’s buttons. That has – thankfully – resulted in a smoother Australian-Japanese relationship than was the case during much of Kevin Rudd’s time at the top. It has also forced me to look elsewhere for bad policies and bad politics.

Now Tony Abbott has come to the party.

Abbott probably thought he’d backed a winner when he called for the scrapping of a $440 million education program in Indonesia. He’d argued against a flood levy, and it made little sense for Abbott to argue for cuts to, say, social security and welfare spending. That would be little different to a flood levy. It would, after all, mean a little less money in the hands of the electorate. Cutting money to Indonesia? It must have presented itself as a no-brainer.

When Abbott first raised the notion of calling for an end to the education program to Indonesia, somebody in his shadow cabinet presumably reminded him that the Australian government is not merely being generous in its dealings with Indonesia.

Somebody in his shadow cabinet presumably reminded Abbott that the Australian government bankrolls the education of a large number of Indonesian kids to keep them out of the religious schools, and ultimately out of the hands of men like accused terrorist Abu Bakir Bashir.

Somebody in his shadow cabinet presumably reminded Abbott that the program is, by most accounts, successful.

For better or for worse, these arguments did not convince Abbott to change his mind.

Here’s where your intrepid historian would have liked to enter the debate. I would probably have raised with Abbott the Marshall Plan. Initiated in the years immediately after World War II, it ran for three years, cost an astonishing $10.25 billion, and contributed to an impressive economic recovery in an otherwise prostrate Europe.

I would also have raised with Abbott the fact that the Marshall Plan had its fair share of critics. Much of the criticism revolved around the notion that the money would be better spent in the United States. Abbott today is sounding a similar tone, by arguing that Australian money is better spent in Australia than in Indonesia.

This brings me to my ace-in-the-hole: critics of the Marshall Plan read the political winds poorly. President Harry Truman won re-election even as he prepared to lay the Marshall Plan before Congress.

No historian is going to suggest that Truman campaigned on the Marshall Plan alone. Still, it does seem fair to suggest that the electorate in the early post-WWII United States was not as blindly parochial as critics of the Marshall Plan had thought.

Most historians would probably like to think that 21st Century Australians are possessed of similarly sound judgment. This particular historian should like to think that either the ALP or the Liberal Party will now be looking me up in my university directory.

21 comments

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    • Super D says:

      04:39am | 17/02/11

      I’m not sure I get this - is the rebuilding of Queensland or the educating of Indonesians the equivalent of the Marshall plan?  In any case neither is of anywhere near the scale.  The Marshall plan cost almost $13 billion dollars - in 1948 - equivalent to close on $120 Billion today.  I’m not sure even this incompetent government is going to have to spend anywhere near that to get Queensland going again.

      No offense mate but your prospects as a serious policy advisor seem limited.

    • Jedi_T says:

      06:25am | 17/02/11

      Totally agree with Super D.
      “During that time, I spent much time wishing – admittedly forlornly – that someone in the Rudd Cabinet would seek my advice concerning Australian-Japanese relations”
      You get me right here that your not someone who has any clue as to politics!
      Rudd, get advice!
      Everyone knows he was an ego-maniac.
      Stick to History Pete, that way if what you say should happens, happens you get to write another “I Told You So” piece.

    • marley says:

      06:57am | 17/02/11

      Oh man, I think your prospects as an analyst are even more limited than his as an advisor.  What’s he’s saying is that Americans weren’t as parochial as critics of the Marshall Plan thought they were, and he suspects Australians aren’t as parochial as critics of aid to Indonesian schools think, either.

    • iansand says:

      07:18am | 17/02/11

      Nurse Santayana.  Could you come over here please?  I think we have a problem.

    • Danny B says:

      06:33am | 17/02/11

      I do like the idea of politicians going to historians for advice.  They who forget history’s lessons are doomed to repeat them, and that gets us nowhere.

    • marley says:

      07:46am | 17/02/11

      I like the idea of politicians going to anyone who isn’t a focus group for advice.

    • Rosie says:

      08:23am | 17/02/11

      Danny it can also be said that what we learn from history is never to learn from history. In many cases we don’t want history repeating itself. Also bear in mind “times are a changing.”

      Sounds like a biased article favouring Gillard. This historian must be bored and is looking for attention.

    • Eskimo says:

      08:00am | 17/02/11

      The first concept you learn in economics is Opportunity Cost. The cost of spending money is the lost opportunity on spending the same money on something else, essentially you can’t have your cake and eat it too. Consequently, the more efficiently you spend your money, the lower the Opportunity Cost.

      The poor budget management of the Government in blowing the surplus on half-baked schemes means we must now choose between schools on Indonesia and building in Queensland. While both are worthy objectives, we must choose how to split the remaining funds on each.

    • Tony of Poorakistan says:

      08:30am | 17/02/11

      Doesn’t read like much of a resume to me.

      You are quids in for a job with the ALP, then.

    • Robert S McCormick says:

      09:30am | 17/02/11

      Pater Mauch,
      Your rant sounded more like an attack on the Coalition parties than a balanced critique of both the major parties! One tiny, little remark in support of Jooolya Gillard because she has not taken up the cudgels against Japan & the Japanese over their totally immoral, dishonest programme of “Whaling for Scientific Purposes”. Even if this despicable programme was for genuine Research rather than what it is: The unnecessary supply of Whalemeat to stuff their bellies with, they have been conducting this phony ‘research’ for generations. By now, having stolen millions of Whales from outside their own territorial waters, slaughtered them & taken them back to Japan, they would have more information than they could possibly ever need - let alone use.
      Surely you do not think for one second that with your unbridled, blatantly pro-Socialist ALP little piece that the Liberal/Nationals, or any other political party, will come knocking at your door begging you to become one of their advisors?
      I doubt, given your obvious support for the Japan & it’s “Let’s, onnecessarily, murder, as many Whales as possible” policy the rank & file of the ALP, let alone the mostly nameless, faceless denizens of Sussex Street, Sydney who run it, would even contemplate appointing you as an Advisor. The Socialist Jooolya would not dare either for she knows that it would be political suicide for her to do so.
      Despite all their faults, racism, lack of Compassion etc. within the Coalition & smaller Parties the vast majority of their MPs, the really important people: The Voters, are totally opposed to this Japanes Obscenity. They would have a field day come election time if the ALP did appoint you.
      Peter, don’t give up your day job. Just keep to teaching History - it might teach you something about Political History!

    • persephone says:

      10:29am | 17/02/11

      And right on cue, today it was announced that the Japanese have packed up their whaling boats and gone home.

      One of the contributing factors? Action against Japan by Australia in the International Court.

      So Labor has acted on this issue.

    • Adam Diver says:

      12:42pm | 17/02/11

      Persephone, more information please? This can go into the open thread if indeed true.

    • persephone says:

      02:01pm | 17/02/11

      Adam

      http://www.discountvouchers.co.uk/news/160053535.html

      ‘International Court of Justice is now handling the case formally presented by Australia against Japan’

      http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2011/s3141069.htm

      ‘Japan’s whaling mission in Antarctic waters has been abandoned - at least for the moment.

      Japan’s Fisheries Agency says it’s decided to suspend its operations because of the safety threat posed by anti whaling activists.’

      ‘The international legal action that the Australian Government lodged in May last year - and clearly taking another country to the International Court of Justice is a major, major diplomatic effort.

      And look it was a major blow against the Japanese whalers and an embarrassment to be dragged before the international courts.’

    • Likes Joining Dots says:

      04:52pm | 17/02/11

      Persephone

      How can you, (with a clear conscience) possibly claim this resulted from Labors actions.

      The links you provided show the Japanese withdrawal was due to safety concerns resulting from the actions of an environmental group, not Labor or any Court action.

    • persephone says:

      06:28pm | 17/02/11

      I said ONE of the contributing factors, which is supported by the quote from AM.

      And I said Labor had acted, and showed proof that it had.

    • Gregg says:

      09:42am | 17/02/11

      Somehow, I’m reminded that historians ought to stick with history more so than the present time claims of knowing what might be good or bad policy.
      History will show you that spendathon governments need to be followed by a government with greater fiscal responsibility just as if one splurges on their credit card whilst also having a massive housing loan they’ll need to be very conscious of what they can afford.
      In Gillards case, she and the likes of Garrett have so much egg on their faces that they are hardly looking more something else for another layer right now, so it’ll be stay out of the firing line as much as possible.
      Re the levy and looking at where spending can be readily pruned from that which the government is doing, you ought to have a read of Tory Shepherd’s article on financing of Indonesia and then take a wider view so you know that foreign aid is just one area Tony Abbott had raised.
      Abbott and many others believe a government should be fiscally flexible enough that financing of infrastructure works ought to be coped with within the the normal NDRRA arrangements between federal, state and local governments, that also being a historical arrangement of some standing.

      But if you want to dress up history as just more support for the ALP, go for it and remind us all of historical failing.

    • Wilma J Craig says:

      10:36am | 17/02/11

      Peter M,
      You say “Whaling, mercifully, seems to push few of Julia Gillard’s buttons & thankfully that has resulted in smoother Australian/Japanese relations.”
      It would appear, Peter, that you support the obscene, totally unnecessary Japanese Whaling Programme. Why? Whilst in Japan did you acquire a taste for it?
      The Japanese, rather than earning a little respect by admitting that their entire programme is to kill whales so they can eat them, dishonestly claim their programme is 100% for “Purposes of Scientific Research”. To use an old Australian expression: “That is Bullshit”
      Tell me, please, how many years has Japan been indulging itself in this lie? 20? 30? 40? years or more?
      By now they should have more than enough of the “scientific knowledge” about Whales than they could possibly ever need or even use.
      The entire programme is a disgrace & insult to Humanity.
      It would seem that in order to maintain “smooth relations” with Japan you expect the Australian Prime Minister to betray the vast majority of Australians who are opposed to this “Programme of Annihilation”.
      Why should we sacrifice our principles in order to keep on-side with Japan or any other country?
      Japan would not do it for us.
      If our Legitimate Opposition to this outrageous behaviour by Japan is to be buried simply to placate Japan then we may as well tell Japan that, despite their having lost WW2, we have now decided they can absorb Australia into the New Japanese Empire.
      Whaling has been shown, proven, call it what you will, to be totally unnecessary for we can manufacture out of many renewable materials every thing which, in the past, these gentle creatures of the deep were hunted for and hunted almost to extinction.
      Given your diatribe against Abbott & his Coalition Parties I doubt very much they would even grant you an interview for the position of “Advisor”
      Given that the vast majority of Coalition Voters have said they are totally opposed to this Japanese obscenity, it is doubtful they would ever vote for it in the unlikely event you did get such a job.
      Though you were very gentle in your treatment of Julia Gillard I doubt very much that you would succeed with the ALP either.
      In the event that you did get appointed (every bit as unlikely) Julia may as well resign & quit politics altogether for not only will the Coalition & minor Parties have a field day the Voters of Australia would see to it that at the next Federal Election they did to the ALP what the Japanese are trying to do to Whales. They would be deservedly annihilated.
      Stick to teaching History, Peter, it really is a very enthralling & exciting subject.

    • The Liberal Loafer says:

      10:58am | 17/02/11

      If you can help Tony Abbott and Julia Gillard, you must be a psychiatrist, a counsellor or a psychologist.
      If you are a psychiatrist, What drugs and what therapy would you prescribe??

    • NicoleG says:

      11:44am | 17/02/11

      Perhaps they could borrow yours?

    • Alan says:

      02:01pm | 17/02/11

      Let’s get some history and current events facts straight: Truman did not win “re-election even as he prepared to lay the Marshall Plan before Congress”.  The Marshall Plan, or European Cooperation Act was passed by Congress and signed into law by the president in April 1948; the election was seven months later. European aid and the reconstruction of Germany was proposed in January 1947 and promoted in a speech by Gen George Marshall in June 1947 and delivered more than $13b in aid, not $10b. Tony Abbott did not call for the “scrapping” of the Indonesia education aid program; he considered deferring it.

    • St. Michael says:

      02:13pm | 17/02/11

      Poor example of the Marshall Plan.  For one thing, the money spent by the US in the Marshall Plan was *fully repaid* by Germany by the 1980s or so.  Ain’t seeing much repayment from Indonesia.

      Second issue is that the US and the Allies were just learning from their mistakes at Versailles 30-odd years earlier.  The war reparations demanded against Germany after WW 1 basically sent the country bankrupt and pushed it into Hitler’s arms.  At least they figured out that you have to help rebuild a Western country after basically blowing it into smithereens with every weapon short of the atomic bomb.  Indonesia, as far as I can see, has not been laid bare by a full scale conventional war recently.

 

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