It should be a great time to be a Green: a first term Labor Government governing from the centre; the defining local and international issue is an environmental one; our lives are being buffeted by one extreme weather event after another.

2010 is a crunch year for the third force in Australian politics and, for many, the great hope of progressive change, with a federal election beckoning, the dream of controlling the Senate is looming large
But something is not happening for the Greens right now: despite growing disillusionment in the Labor Government, their vote is flat-lining in major polls and it is twice as ‘soft’ as the two major parties. We asked voters how strong their voting intention was, and these were the results.

There are a range of factors contributing to this malaise:
Tactical Factors - with a Coalition Leader keen to broker an Emissions Trading Scheme, Labor consciously dealt the Greens out of domestic negotiations. The play for 12 months was the effort from Labor to get agreement from the Coalition, the Greens were locked on the sidelines complaining the scheme did not go far enough. The change of Opposition Leader has forced Labor to bring the Greens back to the table, although the dangers of brokering a greener ETS has increased as the backlash against the scheme has grown.
Locked outside the tent, the Greens played the issue as a lobby group at a time when rhetoric was being turned into policy. While the Greens had arguably the best-framed argument focussing on the benefits of moving first articulated by Christine Milne, it was too often drowned out by more absolutist messages. The war cry to immediately ban all new coal was unworkable and the rhetoric too often drifted in doomsday scenarios, which have shown to be infective in shifting opinion.
The Greens were also the unwitting victims of broader environmental movement’s failure to translate a public desire for action on climate change into support for a practical response. The alliance campaign characterising those opposing change as ‘dinosaurs’’, which broke the golden rule of politics to engage, rather than to ridicule those who don’t agree with you.
Meanwhile other debates like population growth, reform of the health system, the breakdown of public transport in major cities and the devastation of rural communities from drought all swirled around without a unifying political theme – the failure to plan for the long-term. The Greens failed to effectively break into these arguments in a sustained way,
The financial crisis didn’t help either; two of the key attributes of Green voters are age and economic security. The GFC undermined confidence in job security, particularly amongst the young. When the focus returns to the hip pocket, interest in broader political issues tend to wind back.
Finally, climate change has moved out of environmentalism. Thee real story of the failure of Copenhagen was the failure of the developed and developing world to sign up to a future vision of growth. To China, India, Africa, climate change is not about solar panels and roof insulation, it is about the speed at which its people will move out of poverty. Overlay a GFC, and the debates were of fundamental economics.
I have no doubt there is a role for a progressive party to the Left of Australian politics, I just wonder whether the ‘Greens’ as they are currently branded will make it. Is the Green focus too limiting? Are the policy positions too hard-line? Are the solutions we crave too complex to put on a t-shirt? Let’s hope the Greens do find a way of working these issues through – a vibrant party on Left is good for politics, no matter what colours you wear.
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