The Rudd Government has arrested its plunge in the polls by convincing Australians that last week’s Budget might not be good for them but it will be in the national interest.

Devoid of the traditional baubles and handouts, the Budget has gone a long way towards neutralising the Liberal Party’s debt offensive that was threatening to drive a stake through Labor’s economic credentials.
In a month of bad news for the government, this has to be classed as a timely victory - despite the problems with the stimulus package and the raging row over the resource rent tax, the majority of Australians think the economy is heading in the right direction.
But tellingly, the public’s perceptions are based on national interest rather than personal benefit, as this week’s Essential Report Budget report card.

The importance of this Budget is having neutralised the issue of economic management, Labor can re-focus on its core brand advantages of managing health and education all the way through to the federal election.
But behind these findings there is also a warning – the lack of personal buy-in for the budget, coupled with the cooling of people’s attitudes to the Prime Minister personally, means support for the Government seems to be on shakier ground than at any time since it came to power.
So how will the federal Budget shape the political debate in the lead-up to the Federal Election?
Debt: The good news for Labor is that the Debt campaign that the Liberal Party was planning is now stillborn. Despite the massive stimulus package, Labor will have the economy back in surplus within three years. When the Liberals rail against the government’s Resource Rent Tax, at least part of this is the frustration from knowing that there most obvious course of attack on Labor’s economic credentials has been demolished.
Tax: Without debt and economic management, the Opposition is left with the Resource Rent Tax to bludgeon Labor about the head with. The early polling suggests they will have a tough job convincing people that getting the mining sector to increase their tax bill is contrary to the national interest. The parallel danger for the Opposition is that campaigning too closely with the mining industry will tie them once again, to big business.
Economic Management: A separate question we asked this week found the major parties line-ball on economic management. This is usually a Liberal sweet spot, so Labor is playing above the odds on general competence and reflects the residual credit most Australians give the government for avoiding the worst of the Global Financial Crisis last year
Super: The economic sleeper is the federal government’s decision to increase compulsory superannuation payments form nine per cent to 12 per cent. This is a clear deliverable from the budget and the fact that few people have equated this with a benefit to them personally, shows the government still needs to sell the benefits of superannuation in the context of an aging population.
The bottom line is that Governments in Australia are rarely thrown out of office – and when they do there is usually an underlying issue with the way the economy is being managed – think Whitlam (inflation); Fraser (wage freezes); Keating (recession) and Howard (industrial relations). Can anyone picture Rudd being thrown out for wanting to tax miners? Seems like a long bow to me.
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