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Good poll, bad poll will mess with Gillard’s head

Leo Shanahan

by Leo Shanahan

07 Feb 01:06pm

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Filed under: Flood Levy, Julia Gillard, Newspoll, Politics, Tony Abbott

126 comments

This morning’s Newspoll gives to Julia Gillard with the one hand and then quickly smacks her in the back of the head with the other.

Looking up or down? Picture: Ray Strange

The fact that the flood levy has popular support (55-41) can’t be anything but good news for the Government at a time when it will dominate the politics of the next week.

But then the bad news for Gillard: a two point fall in Labor’s primary vote down to a meagre 32 per cent. The Coalition’s has risen by 3 points since the last poll in December to 44, and now has a two party preferred lead of 52-48 and would almost certainly win an election if it were held tomorrow.

It is this fact, rather than the apparent popularity of the flood levy, that will direct Tony Abbott’s strategy over the next couple of weeks.

Whether it’s Abbott and the Coalition that have poked holes in Gillard’s popularity over the summer or whether it was Gillard herself, especially her somewhat contrived media appearances during the Queensland floods, is a matter that we’ll leave up to you.

But Abbott is likely to maintain his opposition to the flood levy in the coming weeks because, as it stands, he appears to be winning the more long term fight with Gillard even if he loses the battle over the flood tax (a very likely outcome, especially given the Liberal’s own stuff-up in soliciting party donations for the fight).

The thing about theorising about the possibility of an election being held tomorrow is that it no longer exists purely in the realm of theory. We’re a couple of grumpy cross-benchers away from its reality.

The further Gillard Labor slides the more emboldened cross-benchers will become to support the Opposition on individual legislation, a level of destabilisation that could (or so is Abbott’s aim) eventually force a change of Government in the house and a subsequent election.

This is a very real possibility over the life of this Government if Labor’s popularity continues to slide. It’s important to remember that none of the independents want to be on the spanking end of an anti-Labor landslide should this Government just hold on to go full term despite ongoing public unpopularity.

As it stands things aren’t at that stage yet, but confidence doesn’t appear too high in Labor ranks. An interesting piece by left wing columnist Phillip Adams in The Weekend Australian argued that many Labor MPs had already lost faith in the Gillard experiment.

“The failure of Gillard to truly replace Rudd is agonisingly obvious. Her tenure in the job is tenuous. Senior members of her Cabinet – both those who opposed and supported the coup – see her as a flop. They’re talking about dumping her. Sooner rather than later. (And I’ve no doubt that on the other side of politics they’re feeling equally desperate about Abbott.)

“Despite casting myself into outer darkness I still have sources within the ALP. The only thing holding them back from moving against the mediocre Gillard is… who’s to replace her? Bill Shorten must be rehearsing his acceptance speech, but it’s hard to see a major conspirator of such naked ambition getting up. Or improving the situation if he did.”

Despite this coming from a polemicist like Adams, the fact that this conversation has also moved out of the abstract has got to be a worry for Gillard.

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126 comments

Show oldest | newest first

    • john says:

      12:37pm | 07/02/11

      Politics is like a wash cycle, soak,pre-wash,wash,rinse then spin - then hang out to dry.

      At least let parliament sit and finish the soak cycle before we all give up and move the dial to spin and go to another election, with whom ever will lead us from both major parties.

      Reply

    • jill says:

      03:25pm | 07/02/11

      The ones that didn’t have to pay voted yes.
      Derrrr!

    • Tubesteak says:

      12:38pm | 07/02/11

      If only they would stop bethering with polls and focus on leading and governing so that in 3 years we can evaluate their performance to decide if we want them to continue.

      Unfortunately, both side have done the former and not the latter for too many years

      Reply

    • Tony of Poorakistan says:

      12:41pm | 07/02/11

      This is hardly surprising; she hasn’t done anything but spend money like a sailor on shore leave ie not caring what it goes on, because it is burning a hole in her pocket, and not bothering to ensure she has anything left for emergencies.

      Reply

    • MarK says:

      12:44pm | 07/02/11

      The polls are worse for Larbor when they dumped Rudd because “they had gone off the rails”.

      That’s about all you need to know really.

      Just sitting back waiting for the train wreck is kind of relaxing.

      Reply

    • Cate P says:

      03:03pm | 07/02/11

      MarK you took my advice and bought up lotsa popcorn then?

    • simon says:

      09:57am | 08/02/11

      Yes It’s an intersting time politically. Who needs to watch the rubbish on TV when your daily entertainment and laughs are supplied by Jools and her inept mob!!!

    • AFR says:

      12:45pm | 07/02/11

      But an election isn’t being hald today is it? So who really cares?

      Reply

    • TimB says:

      01:17pm | 07/02/11

      But it could be. That’s the entire point. Read the article again:

      “The thing about theorising about the possibility of an election being held tomorrow is that it no longer exists purely in the realm of theory. We’re a couple of grumpy cross-benchers away from its reality. ”

    • Ben81 says:

      01:36pm | 07/02/11

      The government, hopefully.

    • MarK says:

      02:00pm | 07/02/11

      Totally spitballing here.

      What would Kevin do if he was offered a senior job at the UN?

      Hmmmmmmm

    • persephone says:

      03:42pm | 07/02/11

      AFR

      you’re correct. The only way there’d be a change of government - let alone another election - would be if the indies switched their allegiance.

      Firstly, none of the independents - for several very good reasons - wants a new election.

      Secondly, none of them have grown any more charmed with TA since they rejected him last time - and the way the Libs and their supporters continually sneer at them hasn’t exactly helped.

      Which means Julia is also safe, as the indies have pledged their support to her personally.

      So the next election won’t be for another three years, unless something really out of left field happens in the meantime.

      But look, I don’t grudge the Lib supporters on this site their little fantasies. I know how frustrating opposition can be, and can understand why they’re grasping at any straw to try and keep their dreams afloat.

    • Dissident says:

      04:07pm | 07/02/11

      MarK, Kevin isn’t already at the UN?!?! - I had no idea! I thought that was why he was galivanting all around the world instead of actually helping to run the Government.

      For all the speculators, there will be no election until the latter stages of this term because the Independents won’t change sides. Windsor and Oakeshott are going to get the @ss-kicking they so richly deserve at the next election for backing the Labor party with a primary vote in the teens over the clearly preferred Coalition (in their seats only). That was one of the key reasons they went the way they did in the first place.

      This Government will go to the polls when it chooses. Sadly.

    • Ben81 says:

      08:08pm | 07/02/11

      “So the next election won’t be for another three years, unless something really out of left field happens in the meantime”

      Yeah pers maybe the AFL will start accepting women into the game and the Bulldogs will pick up Gillard at the draft next year to play full forward.  Stranger things have happened.

    • Dollars Taxes says:

      09:31pm | 07/02/11

      Rumblings on Wall st,The end of Jooolya,Propagana machine wont work on them,Goooooooooooooone!!

    • Gregg says:

      11:22pm | 07/02/11

      Posted on another article but not put up.
      In abbreviated form, Rudd goes and Anna will take his seat so easily in a By Election.
      Status Quo will remain for time being.

      On another note that dithering fool Windsor has so much hatred for Nationals, Libs and Abbott not necessaeily in that order he’ll never change no matter what it means or not for his own electorate.

    • Brian Taylor says:

      05:18am | 08/02/11

      @ persephone, the independents will cop a flogging at the next election as will labor. say goodbye to your Queen Julia mate, shes toast lol

    • persephone says:

      11:48am | 08/02/11

      Brian

      further reason for them to support this government and try and make it a success.

      Further reason for them not to defect to Abbott.

      The longer Labor is in government, the more acceptable they will become to the electorate.

      I remind you of Howard’s similar poor ratings at similar times in the election cycle (and at least Julia wins on PPM, something Howard often failed to do).

      History shows us that parties are well and truly able to retain government despite poor polling figures during their term.

    • Fed Up says:

      12:47pm | 07/02/11

      Seriously, why do people keep voting for this rabble? Worst government in living memory from either side of politics (yep, that includes Whitlam’s) and yet she still holds the keys to the lodge. Says a lot about the collective IQ of the Australian electorate. Who’s next in the Prime Ministerial production line? Shorten, or maybe that buffoon of a treasurer who only held his seat on the back of Green preferences. What a farce of a party.

      Reply

    • Elphaba says:

      01:15pm | 07/02/11

      Don’t look at me.  I did my bit. wink

    • Mahhrat says:

      01:26pm | 07/02/11

      And yet they beat the LIberals into office.

      You know, I don’t mind a good bit of partisan banter - it’s good for the soul, if nothing else - but telling the team in front that they’re no good kinda points big bad red things at your own camp, eh?

    • Vic says:

      02:51pm | 07/02/11

      Mahhrat - They did not beat the liberals they were placed into office by an dud political set up that should be removed. How can a government that get less than half the vote and still on preferential poll only 49% of registered voters still be in power? The MAJORITY of Australia did not want this fool but we got the red bantam anyway.

    • Mahhrat says:

      03:06pm | 07/02/11

      Vic, and yet you go on!  Now, it’s the “system” that’s at fault.

      If it’s so much trouble to admit that your side lost, then why not be more proactive, become part of the government and see what you can do to change the “system”?

    • Tubesteak says:

      03:43pm | 07/02/11

      Representative democracy has been our system from the beginning.

      We don’t vote for a party. We vote for a local member. If that member happens to choose to follow a party then so be it.

      They won more seats than the Liberals at the last election. The Liberals only remain a force when they pair themselves with the agrarian socialists, the Nationals.

      After being put under intense scrutiny by 4 independents and a Green after the last election 4 of them decided to go with Labor.

      Kinda says something about the Liberals who couldn’t even gain the support of 2 of their former comrades from the Nationals, dunnit?

      Maybe it was intentional. Trying to lead a lame duck parliament is nigh impossible and means you have to water down your policies.

    • Wilson says:

      03:43pm | 07/02/11

      Vic, Labor won the two-party preferred vote at 50.18%.
      Not that it makes any difference, Howard won government in 98 with 49%.

    • Randal says:

      04:03pm | 07/02/11

      @Mahhrat there was no victor in the 2010 poll, with Gillard’s government in power purely at the whim of the independents, who made a cynical decision to support a weak leader they could manipulate, a decision admitted to by Tony Windsor when justifying his betrayal of his own electorate.

      Abbott has done and continues to do an outstanding job as leader, and his success in removing a 1st term PM from office and forcing a 1st term gov’t to be the whipping boys of the independents has been outstanding, and a reflection of his remarkable leadership abilities.

      Tony will make a tremendous PM for this nation, and as the ALP vote whittles away and the pressure builds, the independents in time will grow uncomfortable supporting such an unpopular gov’t and will terminate the Gillard’s government tenure in the hope of winning favour in their conservative electorates - of that I could not be more certain.

    • david says:

      04:29pm | 07/02/11

      people keep voting for this rabble because it is unlawful not to vote.

      In elections, it would be great to have a general vote of ‘no confidence’ as an option.

      A result reading Labor 18%, Coalition 30% No confidence 52% gives a whole new slant on whether the general population feel that they are being heard…by either party.

    • Fed Up says:

      07:54pm | 07/02/11

      @Tubesteak. You’re kidding right?  Don’t make me laugh. Trying the old “Libs couldn’t win on their own and need the Nats” line? Your own party is just as guilty. At least the Coalition have the balls to present themselves as exactly that, rather than separating out the Far Left, wrapping themselves in the warm and fuzzy cloak of environmentalism and calling themselves the Greens. What a bunch of baloney.

    • acotrel says:

      07:57pm | 07/02/11

      ‘Seriously, why do people keep voting for this rabble?’

      Because the other side has a worse leader, and his foillowers aren’t much better. Do you really believe Australia could afford Bugs Bunny as PM? - Naerrh, I say Naerrh to everything, What’s up Doc?

    • simon says:

      10:03am | 08/02/11

      Wait till the NBN starts to hit the fan, and it will. Most of the rest of the world is going 4g wireless, and here we are moving backwards to fibre at massive expense to each premise and re-nationalising our telco industry. Even the word “ludicrous” is too soft to describe the breathtaking lack of vision and one dimensional stubborness of Conroy/Gillard.

    • Gladys says:

      12:59pm | 07/02/11

      I’m not sure it will be cross benchers who will be the problem, but perhaps a dissastisfied sitting member in an innercity Melbourne seat.

      Why did Kelvin Thompson break ranks and make a public comment on population growth? I still don’t think the Canberra Gallery has got to the nub of who is unhappy in the ALP and who is likely to jump ship.

      22 government members won’t be running at the next NSW election. I know, I know, that’s NSW and it’s state. But it’s the same party. The same so-called faceless men who have churned leaders in the manner of corrupt franchisors or dairy maids.

      I think the crossbenchers will keep their word, but a bi-election may see another seat fall to an independent in Melbourne and then it will be one.

      Thank goodness.

      Reply

    • persephone says:

      03:47pm | 07/02/11

      Kelvin was always breaking ranks and making public comments, particularly on population growth.

      Absolutely nothing to see here.

      And he’s also about the last person to put Labor in the position you describe.

      (There’d be no guarantee that the seat would go to the Libs anyway. Most of the inner Melbourne seats are safe as houses).

    • Tony of Poorakistan says:

      08:46pm | 07/02/11

      I’m sure that’s what Jane Lomax-Smith, A minister in the previous RANN ALP government and member for Adelaide, said before she was trounced. Keep acting like arseholes and no seat is safe, even Port Adelaide or Melbourne Ports.

    • Michael says:

      01:01pm | 07/02/11

      I support the flood support without hesitation, but surely this country, in the middle of the biggest mining boom in history, can afford $1.8 billion!? Labor have been, and continue to spend money even faster than Australia can make it - which is no mean feat considering our mining exports - and yet, with all this money we canot find a lousy $1.8 billion!? What we need is a vaguely responsible government, not another damned tax!

      Reply

    • dinkidi says:

      03:23pm | 07/02/11

      I don’t know of anybody who supports the flood levy, it is not the way Australians act. One levy for one problem? No! We just do not trust this government to run anything any more

    • persephone says:

      03:50pm | 07/02/11

      Michael

      the GFC means that the government has already cut a lot of expenditure.

      The very fact that we’re now looking at changes to areas such as Family payments shows that there isn’t actually that much fat to cut.

      You can always cut government expenditure, no matter how good/bad the budget is. But some of the choices involved will upset people even more than a levy!

    • Dissident says:

      04:32pm | 07/02/11

      Perse - I have said it before and I will say it again. There was NO global financial crisis. There was a Western financial crisis. China and India are growing at a phenomenal rate (a lazy 10% or so) and constitute a full third of the earth’s population. One-third is a decent old chunk out of the ‘globe’.

      Australia was largely insulated from the so-called GFC because better banking regulation and because we don’t have no-recourse home loans.

      The idiotic profligacy of this Labor government is astounding. There are plenty of places to make cuts - Labor just need to grow a pair.

    • Faz says:

      06:31pm | 07/02/11

      @ dinkidi

      ’ ... The fact that the flood levy has popular support (55-41) ...’

      The ‘I don’t know of anybody’ survey is not a great statistical sample.

    • Michael says:

      07:07pm | 07/02/11

      persephone, if you had any clue what the hell you were talking about… But then, if you had a clue, you would not be blindly defending this government’s spending record. The GFC was the excuse these morons used to dump untold amounts of money into every budget they could find. I have personally watched several projects in DEWHA waste over $600million for no return whatever to anyone. Pure, incompetent and corrupt waste. The GFC has not trimmed a damned thing. Further, our mining income has grown throughout. Still we don’t have a lousy couple of billion for an emergency. Way to plan, labor. Oh, and we all expect your answer to be something along the lines of “oh, yeah? well abbott is a poopy-head!” so let’s just not bother you going there?

    • john says:

      10:50pm | 07/02/11

      @Michael it would have been better to just use the dollar bills as fuel for the hazelwood power station coal burners, at least you would have got some power to run peoples air-conditioners, hairdryers, plasmas etc for a few months.
      Better than wasting it with nothing to show for it.
      Our power bills might be cheaper too!

    • Aaron says:

      11:23am | 08/02/11

      Well considering that the mining boom doesn’t directly give the Federal Government more money, instead it feeds the State Governments and one of the prime mining areas had their mines etc flooded and so production and distribution is not a happening thing there AND given that the Coalition are against the MRRT or the RSPT there is unlikely to be a considerable amount of money come through to the Government from mining.

    • Michael says:

      01:03pm | 07/02/11

      It’s interesting to consider that labor are less popular than the new tax they have just lumped us all with!?

      Reply

    • persephone says:

      03:51pm | 07/02/11

      And Tony Abbott is even less popular than that.

      As I keep saying, he’s a drag on the Liberal vote.

    • Michael says:

      07:13pm | 07/02/11

      Yep, there it is: persephone has once again stunned us all with her blinding intellect. As always, she adds such substance and elloquence to the discussion. gillard has taken labor below the magic “true believers” line… Even the hard-core labor voters are desserting. persephone still buys their crap.

    • TimB says:

      07:20am | 08/02/11

      Alright Perse let’s pretend Tony is a drag on the Liberal vote. (And I don’t buy that, all the Tony Abbott haters appear to be Labor voters that wouldn’t be voting Liberal anyway),

      Where has he dragged it to? Oh. 44% Primary vote for the the Coalition. Compared to 32% Labor.

      Labor is a drag on the Labor vote. That should worry you.

    • john says:

      01:05pm | 07/02/11

      Or maybe she knows she wont win the next election and will leave the coffers dry for the liberal party as a parting gift from politics. Its not as if she has done a Rudd trick by trying to obtain a UN seat so to give us the two finger salute and piss off overseas and set her self up for a politics afterlife?.

      She doesn’t have anywhere else to go, she’s stuck in the PM job, now its time to seize the queen bee and trap her in the PM position to serve us as true democratic puppet leader where everyone else pulls the strings even the opposition is starting to learn how to pull one of the strings. Who would have thought we would ever see a true labor leader.
      To see how a puppet labor works works have a look here:
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuIL9UAWvK4&feature=related

      Reply

    • Tony of Poorakistan says:

      01:24pm | 07/02/11

      She may go back to something she knows - being a mouthpiece for union activists at some sleazy firm of pond scum lawyers.

    • James1 says:

      02:16pm | 07/02/11

      You make it sound as though there is another type of lawyer, Tony.

    • john says:

      03:42pm | 07/02/11

      @James1..ahhh I didn’t think anyone would see that.

    • Wayne Fehlhaber says:

      01:12pm | 07/02/11

      The reality is staring Labor appararchiks in the face . They made a big mistake in annointing Gillard amidst the bloody coup against Rudd. There is no doubt at all that Rudd had lost his way but at least he gave over an impression that he had a fair idea of what needed doing .
      Gillard , on the other hand , has been hopeless right from day one .

      Despite Abbott being less than a smooth operator , he has made headway against the Gillard experiment .
      On that point one needs to go back to the last federal election result to ascertain just how effective Tony Abbott can be in a tough fight.
      It should be kept firmly in mind that it was an almost unprecedented result for a first term government to be defeated but that is where Gillard took Labor and they had to be propped up by a few independents to continue to govern.
      It is ludicrous to suggest that Tony Abbott would be replaced at this point in time considering what he achieved in bringing the Coalition to the point of victory in an election Labor should clearly have won.

      The first few weeks of the governments return to business in Canberra should provide an answer as to any moves on Gillard’s shaky hold . Even if she manages to struggle on for a few months , the number crunchers will still be working hard.

      Reply

    • Steve Putnam says:

      03:38pm | 07/02/11

      You’re spinning out of control again Wayne! ‘bringing the coalition to the point of victory’—He didn’t;  that’s why they are the opposition.

    • Sven Gali says:

      06:30pm | 07/02/11

      Indeed, Steve, but more importantly, I can’t wait to hear Wayne’s list of reasons why “Labor should clearly have won”.

      Who’d have thought we’d ever hear that from him ?

    • Wayne Fehlhaber says:

      07:18pm | 07/02/11

      Steve :  Gillard certainly did not win , did she Steve . ?  She was propped up and the cross beams are trembling old mate . !

    • Joombi O'Flaherty says:

      07:35pm | 07/02/11

      The reality is staring Liberal appararchiks in the face. They made a big mistake in annointing Abbott amidst the bloody coup against Turnbull. There is no doubt at all that Turnbull had lost his way but at least he gave over an impression that he had a fair idea of what needed doing. Abbott, on the other hand, has been hopeless right from day one.
      Despite Gillard being a less than smooth operator, she has made headway against the the Abbott experiment. On that point one needs to go back to the last federal election result to ascertain just how effective Juju Gillard can be in a tough fight. It should be kept firmly in mind that it was an almost unprecedented result for a first term opposition to be unable to defeat a government but that is where Abbott took Liberal and they had to try to suck up to a few independants to try to form a government.
      It is ludicrous to suggest that Juju Gillard would be replaced at this point in time considering what she achieved in bringing Labor government in an election Liberal should clearly have won.
      The first few weeks of the oppositions return to business in Canberra should provide an answer as to any moves on Abbotts shaky hold. Even if she manages to struggle on for a few months, the number crunchers will still be working hard.

    • Aitch B says:

      01:14pm | 07/02/11

      One can only wonder what Gillard’s replacement (if indeed that DID happen) would put forward as explanation.

      “We’ve lost our way” would only foat so far….. except for the diehards, who would be singing the Hallelujah Chorus - again.

      Seems the ALP power brokers and senior Cabinet members are a fickle bunch….. knife the incumbent and hope to hell the new one is more popular with the electorate (not better at the job - that’s less important to them).

      Reply

    • Richard Largee says:

      01:15pm | 07/02/11

      @Fed up,They didnt vote for them,but gutless Brown preferenced them
      Hows the photo?

      Reply

    • Ben81 says:

      01:39pm | 07/02/11

      You can preference whoever you want, copying whatever a how to vote card says is no excuse.  What happened after the election is another story…

    • Ben81 says:

      01:22pm | 07/02/11

      Yes too bad the Liberals haven’t been able to get their reasoning to enough people for their stance on the flood levy through the ridiculous noise of the sideshow.  You win this round, twits who treat politics as a game.

      Lessons learned: Don’t modify the usual line about donations to fit whatever particular issue an email is talking about, desperate people will use it against you.  On some topics, lie and pretend that campaigning can somehow be done for free and you don’t need or want donations.  Don’t just tell the plain truth about why the line was put there if people complain, lie and say it was a terrible mistake and you’ll redirect all your donations to the flood appeal.

      Oh man what’s next…

      Reply

    • Luke says:

      01:27pm | 07/02/11

      It doesn’t matter who leads the Labor Party, the damage is done. They had a first term and made complete fools out of themselves. Stuck a woman in the job and thought all will be forgotten about their disgraceful previous performance. Nup it hasn’t happened. We all remember Julia and Kevin, whether it’s her as Prime Minister and him as Foreign Minister, or him as Prime Minister and her as his Deputy Prime Minister.There is no escape root for Labor. A total disgrace to this country and a diabolical failure.

      Reply

    • Aasq says:

      06:40pm | 07/02/11

      Sounds much better than an escape goat, Luke.

    • Keith Hammersmith says:

      01:30pm | 07/02/11

      As soon as labor started slipping in the polls they smashed KRudd, and replaced him over night…

      isnt it time the favour was returned to Jules?

      A little consistency in the labor party would be nice

      Reply

    • Faz says:

      06:36pm | 07/02/11

      Ah yes, consistency.

      Howard, Nelson, Turnbull, Abbott ...

      That kind of consistency?

    • Wok says:

      01:31pm | 07/02/11

      The Poll was taken in Tully the next day,they asked 55 people, 55% support is 110% crap

      Reply

    • TimB says:

      02:34pm | 07/02/11

      Come on mate, I don’t put much stock on the significance of the poll myself, but don’t make stuff up to attack it. The poll sample wasn’t all that different from any of the other polls.

    • The CaveDweller says:

      03:45pm | 07/02/11

      Spot on TimB.

      In fact The Australian stated no one affected by the floods were polled. Is this a comment just for comment’s sake?

      Get a grip.

    • persephone says:

      03:54pm | 07/02/11

      Actually, Newspoll made the point that they hadn’t polled any flood affected areas.

      Which means that support for the levy is probably far higher than the poll indicates.

    • Super D says:

      01:32pm | 07/02/11

      Is it really surprising that the majority of people support a levy that the majority of people don’t have to pay?  Soak the “rich” has always been a populist fall back position.  If you want to measure actual support for a new tax only those who will pay it should be polled.  I’d guess it would be 80-20 against.

      Reply

    • Tony of Poorakistan says:

      02:39pm | 07/02/11

      The only people who should be asked if they support the Big New Flood Tax are those who have to pay it. 
       
      Of course the dole bludging ALP supporters are in favour of it; it doesn’t affect them and it makes their opponents angry.

    • The CaveDweller says:

      03:56pm | 07/02/11

      So true.

      Why are only the middle and high rungs coughing up? 800,000 people are on Centrelink payments. A mere $2 for the entire year would bring in $1.2 million not inc low income earners who could do the same.

      Not too much to ask to have everyone contribute is it? Those who merely lost power but suffered no flooding should not be exempt either.

      Gillard now has to realize that even more people will be exempt so her target is dwindling yet the Labor ‘Poor’ will never be asked for even that single gold coin will they?

    • loxy says:

      04:25pm | 07/02/11

      I agree Super D! I love this country but if there’s one thing I hate it’s the culture of thinking those who study and work hard should pay and pay and pay. My husband and I are in the ‘so called rich’ category, we pay over 100k per year in tax, have private health, donate to charities (including the flood fund) and will pay over $1500 extra for this new levy and yet people act like we deserve to pay more than we already do. We don’t mind doing our bit but enough is enough, when does it stop? We could have a much better quality of life financially if we moved overseas and if this country doesn’t start focusing more on everyone doing their bit instead of taxing the hell out of the minority higher earners then you will learn your lesson the hard way when they all

    • Rosie says:

      01:38pm | 07/02/11

      Thanks Leo for reminding us. 1st step: “no doubt she is a flop and needs to go. They’re are talking about dumping her sooner than later. Sooner would benefit this country and its citizens. It will give the Govt more time for better governance. Replace her with Bill Shorten, he looks good, married with children and is the son in law of the Governor General. I like it, it sounds classy, with Shorten in place the Govt can forget about the past few months and begin with a new Bill Shorten seal of approval. I for one will give him the respect that any Australian PM deserves. I don’t have any respect for Gillard and don’t intend to change my mind.

      The Labor Govt with the faceless men need to admit that they have made the biggest political mistake in history and for the public to bear & grin it because they are now ready to govern for all Australians.

      This time it will be easier than getting rid of Rudd because the woman is not popular and hasn’t given us anything but shame. We are still not even sure whether she is her real self or the big time fake Julia.

      Reply

    • James A says:

      02:16pm | 07/02/11

      Stunning to witness Gillard’s epic incompetence in regard to her barefaced lie about Government savings.  A mistake/lie so bad that really she should just be shown the door.

      Gillard is so out of her depth it is frightening and unwatchable.

      The ALP knives must be sharpening.  Problem is they have zero talent available.

      Reply

    • C1 says:

      02:52pm | 07/02/11

      Rosie,

      I do not think Shorten is the role model you somehow think him to be. Yes he is married, but he left his wife for another woman whose Mum is the GG. Not a great example is it? Secondly just what one needs, another political dynasty in the Labor Party - as if they do not have enough opf them already.

      Shorten strikes me as a bit of a wuss - looks good yes but where is he when the going gets tough. I do not think he has had to deal with hard issues ‘in the public domain’ yet. I do not equate his performance at Beaconsfield as anything other than an opportunity for face time. What did he actually contribute when the real workers were busting their proverbials to get the miners out.
      If they had to blade Gillard (no bad thing) I reckon Combet would be better PM material - he strikes me as a guy who actually gets things done with minimal fuss.

      Reply

    • Likes Joining Dots says:

      04:49pm | 07/02/11

      @ Rosie

      C1 may be correct and Bill Shorten is not the role model you believe him to be, for the reasons listed above - and more.

      In Victoria - the safe Labor seat of Broadmeadows, previously held by former Premier Brumby, is now open. 

      Bill Shorten and Stephen Conroy chose to drop Frank McGuire into the safe seat (yes he’s the brother of Eddy and despite the fact he only joined the Labor party a few weeks ago and does not live there.)

      Four Unions took Shorten & Conroy to Supreme Court for failing to adhere to the preselection processes - the unions lost the case.

      Stephen Smith may be a better option (I have no evidence of this btw - it’s just the vibe).

    • Young but politically passionate says:

      05:16pm | 07/02/11

      Eeeuuwww!!!!

      Greg Combet??? Sneaky, stringy hair & geek glasses trying to be someone’s friend? Anyone’s? Saying suck-up things ‘cos it’s what he thinks we all want to hear? No backnone when it counts. Do we really want GC dealing with intelligent international scenarios?

      No way, Jose! But watch out for Conniving Mr Burke. Fox in the henhouse, that one!

    • Rosie says:

      06:15pm | 07/02/11

      C1

      OK Combet then as long as Gillard goes for a new start to some kind of governance for all Australians! Anyone else from the Labor caucas except Gillard, Swan, Nixon and Rudd would be a welcome to the eyesight.

      All that is happening at the moment is Gillard with the Independents, Oakshott & Windsor and Greens hanging in there for their survial to last the 3 year term. The media hasn’t helped as they wait like vultures for all the many faux pas made by Gillard and the minor ridiculous ones by the Opposition leader Tony Abbott. This is all we are getting each and everyday since Gillard became PM. Rudd is being watched by the media and criticized as if to justify his ousting by those that wanted him out in the first place. There hasn’t been any form of governance for us to read just supposedly tactless mistakes by either leaders.

      Gillard needs to go and a new beginning for some kind of governance to begin urgently. We cannot have a change of Govt, but we can have a change of leadership and the time to do it is NOW!

    • Tony of Poorakistan says:

      02:57pm | 07/02/11

      She’d be out of her depth in a puddle

      Reply

    • Th Badger of Abbottistan says:

      06:08pm | 07/02/11

      and Abbott would still be under the point of her high heels.
      spluttering NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

    • john says:

      10:58pm | 07/02/11

      @Th Badger of Abbottistan

      ...can’t see how? when her hairdresser partner wears them most of the time.

    • The Badger of Abbottistan says:

      08:31am | 08/02/11

      john
      that’s the problem with conservatives, they have no imagination.

      A conservative is a man who believes that nothing should be done for the first time.
      Alfred E. Wiggam

    • john says:

      12:34pm | 08/02/11

      A conservative is a man who believes that nothing should be done for the first time.
      Alfred E. Wiggam

      that’s so true, a conservative believes its should have already been done before, so not to waste time & money doing it for the first time.

    • mary monica roche says:

      03:02pm | 07/02/11

      the next federal election is scheduled for 2013 and not next weekend..
      there is only one state election scheduled for 2011 and that is the New South Wales State Election march 26 2011.
      Liberals offer voters nothing except extreme overconfidence.

      Reply

    • marley says:

      03:12pm | 07/02/11

      And Labor, at least in NSW, offers voters nothing except extreme incompetence.  What to do, what to do…

    • mary monica roche says:

      06:24pm | 07/02/11

      The NSW State Election is the bleep bleep bleep election between Barry bleep bleep bleep O’Farrell and his bleep bleep Liberal Party and Kristina Bleep Bleep bleep Kenneally and her bleep bleep Labor Party.
      Any Liberal bleep bleep voter who doesn’t like bleep bleep Labor is bleep racist and bleep bleep sexist.

    • Matthew says:

      03:03pm | 07/02/11

      Wait, so a tax that excludes 1/2 or more of all tax payers gets a 50%+ rating .... wow.

      Julia is on the nose. 
      She’s played the “Govt. has lost its way” card.
      She’s played the “It was Kevins fault” card.
      She’s played the “Real Julia 2.0” card.

      What now?

      Reply

    • C1 says:

      03:11pm | 07/02/11

      Either Howard or Workchoices

    • Luke says:

      03:14pm | 07/02/11

      the “moving forward” card

    • MarK says:

      03:57pm | 07/02/11

      She has heaps up her sleeve.

      We need to see a mea culpa and a heartfelt apology yet. She has yet to get “really angry” and also could “move to the left” or “jump to the right” more…..however if she moves more right she may as well just give it to Abbott and cut the middleman.

      What about a tear filled mea culpa from out first female PM as she confesses to stuffing the country and sleeping with a mexican delegate at a climate change conference?

      That would do wonders for the polls.

      Womans tears and a sex confession.

      Gold.

    • hermes says:

      03:08pm | 07/02/11

      The fact that Tony Abbott and the Coalition are so popular is further evidence of how very unpopular the ALP has become. They haven’t exactly excelled (vis a vis, election costings, exhorting donations after a disaster, admitting lying etc), but have shone in comparison to the train wreck that is the ALP. Julia Gillard is the perfect example of the Peter Principle, whereby someone has been promoted beyond their level of incompetance. It is my firm belief that the only reason she was given the guernsey was because she was a woman…because no doubt, some inner city focus group of comprised of unemployed inner city lesbian art student undergraduates highlighted Tony Abbott’s perceived anti feminist attitudes. However, the Coalition also has a problem; namely Tony Abbott; “small l liberals” and disenchanted ALP supporters find it difficult to vote for him; but he is incredibly popular with the talkback radio listening bogans… However, the rock has been lifted from the Greens, and they are now turning brown and red in the glare of the light…and Gillard and co just get more rotten, and more desperate…Abbott might just get the top job by default, by shutting up. I think Gillard is doomed; and sooner rather than later. Watch this space.

      Reply

    • nossy says:

      03:28pm | 07/02/11

      The good news of course Leo for Labor is that we are some 2 and a half years away from an election. Tony Abbott is the lad under pressure tring to convince Liberals he is a winner. As we saw with articles by Laurie Oakes, Peter van Onselen and Michelle Grattan recently, murmurs have started as to his “winnability”. Labor is very lucky to have good old Tony as Opp leader as he has taken the pressure off any problems they have had. A leader who is deemed by the voters as “electable” may be a different kettle of fish in the future - but at present we have good old “unelectable” Tony ! Hooray for Tony !

      Reply

    • Rosie says:

      07:16pm | 07/02/11

      nossy nosthow, your nose must be way out of joint by now that your sense of smell has affected your brains!

      You can add Lainie Anderson on top of Laurie Oakes, Peter Van Olsen and Michelle Grattan. Lainie Anderson in the Sunday Mail: “Mr Abbott is very happy for hardworking Australians to fork out for his own campaign against the flood levy.” I presume that is what you are talking about Nosthow!

      These journalists have no credibility when it comes to writing stuff about Tony Abbott for the sake of it. They are like vultures waiting to attack at the smallest of opportunities when it arises. The wait for Labor Supporters and the media is too long as Tony Abbott has been behaving well and not badly as expected by everyone they had to pick on something so trival.

      As for that “email” it was meant for LIBERAL SUPPORTERS and LIBERAL SUPPORTERS ALONE who graciously welcomed it so as to stop a flood levy being imposed by the Gillard Govt and the money found by other means eg holding back the NBN for at least a year. Also cut back on the Govt’s wreckless spending in many other areas. I for one would have given a donation to help Tony Abbott fight something that I disagree with! LIBERAL SUPPORTERS Nosthow whose democractic rights to give or not to give. I take offence when people like Oakes, Van Olsen, Anderson and Grattan write that the email was deeply embarrassing and that it shows Tony Abbott for what he is. A hollow, ham-fisted, hard hearted combatant whose primary concerns are: first the fortunes of his party and second his own role within it.

      As a citizen of this country I expect the Liberal MP that represents me to do the right thing by me and I find the comments by these journalists unbelievably stupid from stategic point of view, and utterly disgusting from a human perspective to make Tony Abbott out to be insincere and thoughtless!

      All that seems to be happening today is the media hanging out like vultures waiting to attack the many faux pas made by Gillard and the far between trival ones made by the Opposition leader. This is mainly because the Gillard Govt has nothing to offer Australians. The nation is very much in need of some kind of governance.

    • john says:

      09:10pm | 07/02/11

      @nossy…yes its ok…yes dear ok…come sit down…it will be all right, now take your medication and calm down, don’t let those pro-labor reporters who can’t be impartial give you palpitations from all the excitement. we need you on the PUNCH.

    • Aasq says:

      11:59pm | 07/02/11

      Speaking of Liberal MPs, Rosie, don’t forget Joe Hockey.

      “Shadow treasurer Joe Hockey today did what his leader has declined to do and said the donation plea was a mistake by the Liberal Party organisation.

      “Obviously the party made a mistake, it was wrong,” Mr Hockey told ABC Radio.”

    • Rosie says:

      07:40am | 08/02/11

      Aasq l like it better when your name is written in full Ask A Stupid Question.

      “Shadow treasurer Joe Hockey today did what his leader has declined to do and said the donation plea was a mistake by the Liberal Party organisation.”

      Yes, Joe Hockey was right to come out after the attacks and name calling of Tony Abbott who we know as a very loyal Australian. So it didn’t matter who came from the Liberal Party to admit the timing was wrong, because it was the Party’s idea and not Tony Abbott alone.

      We all want to help but not through a flood levy imposed by a Govt who is known for its wreckless spending. I wouldn’t have minded if it was meant for the flood victims and not for the re-building of QLD’s infrastructure. Start a precedence, everytime we have a well out of our control “natural disaster” and it wrecks our infrastructure the Govt of the day imposes a “levy” to begin the re-building process.

      In your eyes and the likes of you the Liberal Party has made a “faux pas” compare this to the Labor Party’s leader whom everything she touches is without some kind of controversy, the “controversy” that hangs around her neck for the rest of her life when she became our PM and the “fake” “real” Julia performance. Tony Abbott has a lot of catching up to do!

    • Aasq says:

      09:10am | 08/02/11

      Who are this “we” you speak of, Rosie ? Catch the Fire Ministeries ? 

      Joe Hockey and I and don’t think the Liberal Party made a “faux pas”. As he said ...

      “Obviously the party made a mistake, it was wrong.”

    • mary monica roche says:

      03:36pm | 07/02/11

      Your comment:
      Liberals have only won two state election and no federal elections since 2004.
      A Liberal election win is like winning lotto. It is a once in a blue moon event.

      Reply

    • Danny B says:

      10:18am | 08/02/11

      Well then John Winston Howard must have been pretty lucky…

    • Chicken says:

      03:52pm | 07/02/11

      As long Abbott is leader of the Opposition and has those one day wonder ideas,I will have to vote for Labor.
      This women is dumb that is bad enough,but to support mad man would be total lunacy.
      I feel that his days are numbered and soon we will have real Opposition and alternative government.
      I think that at this moment I have no choice but to support Gillard.From two evils she is the lesser one.
      The opportunistic and low life Abbott is making me sick,and at my age I cannot afford to be sick or afford to buy medicine.

      Reply

    • TCB 24 X 7 says:

      05:38pm | 07/02/11

      Hey Chicken,
      Im guessing at your age really, you sound naive.
      You cant afford it, wait till your labor buddies put on a 30% electricity tax on you.
      Oh and as for low life, did she not knife her leaders back.
                        Now Thats as low as you can go.

    • OchreBunyip says:

      10:51am | 08/02/11

      We won’t get better politicians until better people become politicians.

    • Holly says:

      03:59pm | 07/02/11

      Leo when you interpret the poll, the most informative way is to compare the current figures with the last election outcome.  If you do that you will note that the coalition has only picked up 0.4% of the Labor vote since the election and the rest has gone to the Greens and Others.  That indicates that there is no real swing to the coalition but many people are “parking” with the Greens and “Others” - although who these others are I do not know - Independents maybe?

      Reply

    • TCB 24 X 7 says:

      06:06pm | 07/02/11

      Bullshit,
      Look at vic elections no soft cock greens or indies got votes their.
              And bullshit if you think that was state issues.
      Fact, Abbott beat gillard in last election 73 seat lib 72 lab.
                It was the 4 AMIGOS that gave labor power.
                                She was beat.
      It will be a long time before Aussies will let greens and indies be in that position again, People have realised the Mistake Made.

    • Green Indie says:

      08:19pm | 07/02/11

      Nah
      The soft cock conservatives will take it up the cadbury highway again.

      The people who voted for Abbott will realise they made a mistake.

    • Aasq says:

      08:37pm | 07/02/11

      Have a look at the AEC site here, TCB.

      Australian Labor Party 72
      Liberal 44

    • TCB 24 X 7 says:

      02:11am | 08/02/11

      Hey green indie
      Dont use my lines,get your own.
      Besides your leader has not got one, she leads a mob of geldings.
      (p.s. if you dont know what a gelding is, look it up.)

      And aasq,
      Are you a full deck of cards,or are you stupid.
      Last fed. election result 2010. Libs 73 seats lab. 72 seats.
      1green, 3 indies, side with labor and 1 to libs, making it 76 lab 74 libs.
                    gillard was beat , the 4 amigos put her in.
                          Do you comprendo now frendo.

    • Aasq says:

      09:17am | 08/02/11

      Have another look at the AEC site, TCB.

      Liberal 44

    • TCB 24 X 7 says:

      08:18pm | 08/02/11

      Aasq you fool,

      You forgot to add in the rest of the COALITION!

    • Aasq says:

      09:19am | 09/02/11

      You’re the fool who wrote “lib”, “Libs”, and “libs”, TCB.

    • TCB 24 X 7 says:

      08:49pm | 09/02/11

      Aasq,
      Any idiot would know who the Libs are.
        Abbott beat gillard 73 to 72.

    • Aasq says:

      10:55pm | 10/02/11

      Apparently you do, TCB.

      Gillard beat Abbott 76 to 74.

    • Ryan says:

      04:13pm | 07/02/11

      I wonder who is sharpening their knives, watch your back Julia, they are coming for you.

      Reply

    • Loxy says:

      04:16pm | 07/02/11

      If Labour were again to dump and replace their leader (and our PM) I think the public backlash would be fierce. I don’t see that they have any choice but to go to the next election (assuming they make it that far) with Julia as their PM. Labour can take some heart in the fact that Abbott has never appealed to a broad spectrum of people, myself included and they may just be lucky enough to get enough votes like mine that simply and only votes for them because they can’t stand Abbott.

      Reply

    • Against the Man`` says:

      05:05pm | 07/02/11

      Gillard is hopeless. She is just trying to hold on to power and serving the needs of the Greens and Independents. The needs of the Australian people are the least of her concerns. The more Australians suffer the better as hopefully they will learn the hard lesson of what a ALP government has to offer (eg NSW ALP) and .the consequences of voting for J Gillard aka the sad, selfish and incompetent one HaHa!

      Reply

    • Liz says:

      06:10pm | 07/02/11

      If it’s correct reporting, the news that Bill Shorten is telling anyone who will listen that he will be Prime Minister before Christmas is not only messing with her head, it’s destabilising her perceived authority and making both of them appear as fools.

      How those goofy independants and their Green mates can face their electorates with even a milligram of credibility is beyond me.

      Reply

    • mary monica roche says:

      06:28pm | 07/02/11

      any bleep bleep Liberal Voter that does not like and doesn’t vote for Julia Gillard and Kristina K enneally or any other female Labor state premier is a bleep bleep racist , a bleep bleep sexist and a bleep bleep bleep male chauvinist pig.

      Reply

    • Mary Monica Roche says:

      07:13pm | 07/02/11

      Your comment:
      Weekly or fortnightly federal elections and opinion polls are pure fantasy land video games stuff.
      Liberal Voters love opinion polls as Liberal Voters can have “election games ” weekly or fortnightly instead of daily video games.
      Opinion Polls are meaningless unless you really are going to have the federal election the next weekend/.

      Reply

    • Mary Monica Roche says:

      07:17pm | 07/02/11

      if Australia had weekly or monthly elections then there would be no need for opinion polls.
      Unfortunately for Australians, there are no weekly or monthly elections at the State Or federal Level if if the mass media believes there should be.

      Reply

    • Ryan says:

      08:27pm | 07/02/11

      Is the latest catchphrase now “I am determined” loosely translated to us lay persons as “I am telling you something you want to hear because you are stupid and will suck it up, oh by the way, this like everything else out of my mouth is a total lie and I have no intention of honouring what I am determined about”?

      Reply

    • Luke says:

      11:35pm | 07/02/11

      We had an election too close last time…
      I say.. both parties drop thier leader and start again…
      This country needs a party with a majority…
      Both julia and tony are too neutral and with that comes a close election and no political power to be won…

      Reply

    • OLD MAX says:

      08:45am | 08/02/11

      Wouldn’t a double dissolution of Parliament at the end of May save the Australian taxpayer heaps, Once the Greens get control of the senate Jooliar will be their puppet and then see what price they put on carbon.

      Reply

    • Drew(Darlinghurst) says:

      09:06am | 08/02/11

      The two party preferred poll shows LIB/NATS ahead. True.

      But the possibility of that crazy conservative Catholic Abbott as PM is a real Horror Story.

      It’s Gillard by a Nose!!!!!!

      Reply

    • Rick says:

      10:43am | 08/02/11

      Amazing.  Journalists like Mr Shanahan continually complain that our political parties concentrate their minds too much on focus groups.  However, every two weeks they all ritually train their discussion on the largest focus group of all - the Opinion Polls.  For the next two weeks they will dissect the current poll and wait breathlessly for the next one then go through the process again.  If I were Murdoch or some other media employer I would be insisting they do some real work and not rely on focus groups.

      Reply

    • poa says:

      03:00pm | 08/02/11

      Flood levy…supported by the 55% that don’t pay it.
      The real figure is ALP support soooooo low.
      Lower than Rudd when he was chopped. Gillard won’t see the month out.
      Albanese is publicly stating that Gillard is “safe despite the polls”.
      Last bloke who was that safe was Rudd!

      Reply

    • Aasq says:

      04:56pm | 08/02/11

      First you said the Prime Minister wouldn’t form Government. Then, she wasn’t going to last a week, then it was a month, then it was until Xmas, and now apparently we have to wait until the end of the month. You’re just not very good at this, are you ?

 
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