Gillard’s time to go double or nothing on pokies

Will Pope Francis have the vision to tackle this?

by Hannah Harborow

110
Advocating risk management is not “victim blaming”

by Sarrah Le Marquand

210
Defeating bullying one child at a time

by Peter James

310
Why can’t I be pope?

by Xavier Toby

410
My democratic dilemma after the death of a despot

by Gabriel Pizani

510
Punch on: Open thread 14/03/2013

by The Punch Team

610
Atheist church’s faithless flock proves value of religion

by Sam Clench

710
There’s no such thing as a free bus ticket

by Jessica Irvine

810
Politicians can’t control the economy

by Albert Alla

910
How far do the National Rifle Association’s sights focus?

by Scott Limbrick

1010

by Tom Cummings

07 May 02:30pm

Must Reads

The Punch is moving house

385

Will Pope Francis have the vision to tackle this?

122

Advocating risk management is not “victim blaming”

251

Filed under: Andrew Wilkie, Hung Parliament, Julia Gillard, Peter Slipper, Pokie Reform, Politics, Problem Gambling

40 comments

If there’s one thing you can count on in Canberra these days, it’s that nothing is guaranteed. As the government dances along the knife edge of minority support, the balance of power seems to be shifting on a daily basis.

Cartoon: Bill Leak

Such is the case with Andrew Wilkie. Only a few months ago it appeared that his influence with Labor had been dealt a serious, almost terminal blow, with the role of Speaker moving from Harry Jenkins to Peter Slipper. Indeed, it was only a short time later that Julia Gillard reneged on her agreement with Wilkie, which in turn led to him withdrawing his support for her government.

Yet here we are just a short time later, with Slipper on the cross-benches and embattled Labor MP Craig Thomson joining him. Anna Burke has stepped into the Speaker’s role temporarily, reducing her influence to that of a casting vote. And amidst all the turmoil, while allegations and sordid details are replayed endlessly in the media, Wilkie has found himself once more in a position of power.

This is no longer simply about poker machine reform. Parliament returns tomorrow and Gillard will be handing down a Federal Budget that she is counting on to turn her party’s fortunes around. Every vote will be crucial. And while Wilkie has virtually promised that he would not block supply, he hasn’t ruled out voting against any of a range of other bills that, if unsuccessful, would have a serious impact on Labor’s ability to deliver what they plan to promise.

Once again, Gillard finds herself having to choose between two seemingly untenable positions. To support Wilkie and his renewed calls for aggressive reform would mean the resumption of hostilities with a cashed-up gambling industry, Clubs Australia in particular. But to ignore his demands could mean that the budget she so desperately needs could end up seriously compromised.

It’s a shame that Gillard didn’t take a closer look at the poker machine industry all those months ago when she started listening to the campaigns and planning to back out of her deal.

There’s no doubt that by playing Wilkie along for as long as she did, she’s been gambling not only with poker machines and their impact on the lives of hundreds of thousands of Australians, but also with her political fortunes… and quite possibly her political existence itself.

Had she taken a closer look, Gillard would no doubt have come across the following poker machine phenomena:

Chasing your losses. One of the reasons people get into trouble with gambling, especially on poker machines, is through chasing losses. When you’ve done your money and you decide to spend just another $20 or $50 so you can win back what you’ve lost, you’re on a slippery slope. Usually the outcome is simply an even greater loss, and when this behaviour becomes the norm the result can be devastating.

Losses disguised as wins. This is something that poker machines are renowned for. It’s what happens when you win something, but not as much as you bet in the first place. The machine makes a noise, the symbols flash and there’s a message telling you that you’ve won… yet you end up with less money than you had before you pressed the button. It’s a conditioning process, getting players used to celebrating any win at all, even when it’s actually a loss.

The house always wins. This is an ironclad certainty, and the more you play with poker machines, the more certain it gets. Everything is stacked in the machines’ favour, from the fundamental design of the games to the psychology of human nature. It’s why the poker machine industry is worth billions of dollars every year. No matter what you do, the pokies always win.

From the moment Gillard wavered on delivering on her agreement with Wilkie, she was lost. She has been playing by the industry’s rules, chasing her losses by making one decision after another to try and claw back the ground that she lost by opposing the industry in the first place.

She’s embraced compromised solutions that will do little more than ensure that Australia’s poker machines can continue to operate unimpeded; voluntary pre-commitment is the ultimate loss disguised as a win.

And by engaging with the industry, by letting them set the rules and make the play, she’s given up any chance of implementing real reforms… and that could ultimately see her lose everything. The house always, always wins.

But it’s not too late; one thing I know from my own gambling days is that it’s never too late to turn things around. It’s not easy, and there will always be consequences… but Gillard still has the chance to take her continued political existence back from the industry that has bludgeoned her into submission, just as its poker machines have to so many before her.

To give in to Wilkie’s demands would be to choose the more difficult path. We’ve already seen what lengths our clubs and pubs will go to in order to maintain the status quo, and it’s a certainty that they would resume the fight in a heartbeat. Still, what Wilkie represents is not political blackmail, but an opportunity to do things right the second time around.

Governments are elected to lead, but also to serve. With support for poker machine reforms stronger amongst the general public than ever before, Wilkie’s resurgence gives Gillard both the opportunity and the excuse to make amends for her earlier failure.

It’s never too late to do the right thing.

Share post:
Print page:
- Print Article

40 comments

Show oldest | newest first

- potatoes says:
  
  02:44pm | 07/05/12
  
  To reengage with Wilkie would be viewed as a backflip and an act desperation which this goverment already reeks of. If she does it would be 1 step forward after two steps back, so a classic loss in wins clothing.
  
  I hope someone carcs it or another MP sexually harasses a staffer so we can have a no confidence vote and another election.
  
  Reply
Peter says:

05:22pm | 07/05/12

Seriously - is a few (hopefully a lot) less pokies a bad thing?
Name one good thing they do. And don’t trot out that crap about supporting junior footie. They do a lot more harm than buy a couple of jerseys.
I say - Go Wilkie Go.

And Abbott is too gutless to change - which is a shame because he will have the majority to actually make this a decent country. If only he had the balls and was not beholden to big industry.
- renold says:
  
  02:59pm | 07/05/12
  
  Used to work as a Government Casino Inspector in the Adelaide casino, was there when they were introduced and installed.
  
  Might be a good idea to actually make a definition of what constitues a problem gambler and what are the signs: ie, money spend, time spend
  
  And introduce what constitues a problem gambler and what signs they show into the Duty of Care, like they did with alcohol
  
  Because I know from years of experience, this Duty of Care is a complete and utter joke
  
  Reply
- iansand says:
  
  03:08pm | 07/05/12
  
  Backflip on a backflip.
  
  New election strategy - winning a gold medal for the Olympic gymnastics floor exercises. It’s as likely to work as anything else she tries.
  
  Reply
RyaN says:

04:18pm | 07/05/12

@iansand: Or she will do what she did last time and just barefaced lie.
Perhaps she will promise every person in Australia a million dollars each if she gets re-elected.
- Rosie says:
  
  03:30pm | 07/05/12
  
  Great article and this paragraph just about sums up the failures of Gillard and the minority govt she is desperately trying to cling on to.
  
  “From the moment Gillard wavered on delivering on her agreement with Wilkie, she was lost. She has been playing by the industry’s rules, chasing her losses by making one decision after another to try and claw back the ground that she lost by opposing the industry in the first place.”
  
  It was a gamble for Gillard from the start and bound to lose. She has now reached the stage that she has nothing to lose but if she had an ounce of morality left in her she would test Wilkie out and stick to her guns. Like the author writes either way Gillard has both the opportunity and the excuse to make amends for her bad judgement. If Wilkie is not given another chance to throw his weight around, Oakeshott and Windsor may come to their senses and withdraw their support from this rotten Govt.
  
  The ball is in your court Julia, call an Election! It’s your chance to at least step away with a bit of dignity.
  
  Reply
- JTZ says:
  
  03:31pm | 07/05/12
  
  Wilkie himself has shown he has no backbone. He started of by saying this is what I want and no its um, ah, hmm, maybe etc. He knows he F-ed up and now is worried that if an election is called he will loose his seat.
  
  As stated before I cant see the addiction that clubs have to these machines. Apart from the casino in WA there a no pokies anywhere yet pubs and clubs survive quiet well.
  
  Reply
craig2 says:

05:10pm | 07/05/12

Wilkie will retire at the next election, he’s just doing this to make his mark.
Craig Wright says:

07:33am | 08/05/12

No backbone? Wilkie is the man who told the public that the Howard governments story of ‘weapons of mass destruction’ was not supported by evidence after resigning from an Intelligence Agency because of it. I think you have a profoundly different definition of backbone than most people have.

Before he was elected, Wilkie said precisely what he would attempt, and he has attempted it. His failure speaks far more about the character and integrity of our Prime Minister than it does about him. If he wishes to stand for election again, I will vote for him again. He is in fact the only politician I have ever voted FOR, instead of voting AGAINST.
- Against the Man says:
  
  03:38pm | 07/05/12
  
  Gillard is just hopeless.
  
  Reply
sunny says:

06:32pm | 07/05/12

Sky is falling.
Xeno says:

07:41pm | 07/05/12

Hopeless? Throw in useless and evil to complete the picture.
- PJ says:
  
  03:55pm | 07/05/12
  
  Note please that Abbott ruled himself out of making a deal with Wilkie. He could have capitalised on the situation but stayed true to his convictions. Got to give him credit for that?
  
  Reply
craig2 says:

05:16pm | 07/05/12

PJ: don’t get the labor loonies started, they’ll start rabbiting on about Tony and how his togs are too tight and his ears are too big and they will have nothing useful to say per usual except pull the blinkers over their eyes and “Abbott” will be bleated again and again and again.
- Leo says:
  
  04:11pm | 07/05/12
  
  One starts to wonder if Gillard is actually a Liberal agent. She is doing more damage to the Labor brand than the Liberal’s could ever hope to do.
  
  I wonder how often her picture adorns the team member of the month plaque in the Liberal party lunchroom.
  
  I mean if you wanted to scrape off even more of the rusted on Labor support, doing another deal with Wilkie and his unpopular pokie reforms will deliver in spades.
  
  Reply
- ZSRenn says:
  
  04:13pm | 07/05/12
  
  Wasn’t here excuse to drop the legislation because she did not have the numbers to get it through parliament. If now she was to wave it in front of Wilkie’s nose. Is he that stupid it would sway his vote?
  
  Surely with her now diminished numbers she has less chance to get it through. or was that lies and bullshit before. So, she is either lying and bullshitting now or she was lying and bullshitting then.
  
  It is just so hard to keep up with her lying and bullshitting!
  
  I’m confused and need a nice nap.
  
  Reply
PJ says:

09:01pm | 07/05/12

I think there was 5 MP running with Pokie Reform on their agendas, but only one with carbon tax. So the ’ no support’ she palmed Wilkie off with was a ‘Kiss Off’. After she had finished with his support of course.
- Mattb says:
  
  04:24pm | 07/05/12
  
  I’d like to see wilkies pokie legislation back. I can’t beleive the general public fell for the pubs and clubs bullshit ‘we care about you’ ‘its un-australian’ campaign. Its un-australian to cheat your fellow aussie out of pocket with crap odds. It reminded me of the tobacco company campaigns against plain packaging, morally bankrupt in the extreme.
  
  Gambling is an aussie tradition, i love a good bet on a range of things but the pokies are far from gambling, they are far too rigged in favour of the house for it to be called gambling. Want evidence?, just check out the SLSC on the gold coast have become, mini taj mahals with all the bells and whistles, and they still cry poor at every opportunity.
  
  Reply
craig2 says:

05:24pm | 07/05/12

Mattb: its my understanding that most people can walk away from losing, it is in the very small majority that lose and lose badly so why do we need a nanny to regulate the majority over the minority? There is nothing morally bankrupt about pokie machine and in a lot of cases, many of the clubs put back into the community with this money so get off the pedestal Matt, you gamble, you contribute to the “problem” and therefore your argument is just words.
Mattb says:

08:25pm | 07/05/12

Craig,

‘Your arguement is just words’. Yeah, and this is an opinion site on the Internet, what did you want me to use, sign language?

I gave my opinion, the arguement clubs Australia put forward was pathetic and akin to saying “unless we can rip people off with our pokies our clubs wont survive”.

That’s my opinion Craig, agree with it or not. What’s yours?. Or dont you have one that goes further than shrill, over reactions about “nanny states”, “bleeding heart PC lefty’s” and “tree hugging”.

My arguement might be “just words” but it’s better than your childish ranting….
- dancan says:
  
  04:38pm | 07/05/12
  
  To keep with the gambling euphemisms.
  
  It’s 4am and after a long messy night on the town Gillard has ended up at the casino, but she needs to cash in her chips and leave the table now while she has some dignity left, because in another hour the bounces will come along and kick her out on her ass
  
  Reply
- Julia's Island says:
  
  05:04pm | 07/05/12
  
  Ban poker machines! Abolish poker machines !
  Poker Machines belong in the 2oth Century with the Liberals!
  They should be replaced by a new invention for the 21st Century ! !
  Poker Machines make you sick ! They are so boring !
  
  Reply
Pj says:

09:08pm | 07/05/12

It was Labor who turned Melbourne into a Casino. First they had the Trade Centre while the Casino was being built, then once the Casino was finished both buildings were kept.
- Esteban says:
  
  05:16pm | 07/05/12
  
  Gillard has seen the electoral pain that taking on the clubs brought on her Government.
  
  After Wilkie tore up his agreement with Gillard he bliked when put to the test.
  
  Wilkie still likes his diluted power and will not bring down the Govt.
  
  Wilkie was easier to stare down than the clubs.
  
  Reply
- jg says:
  
  05:46pm | 07/05/12
  
  Wilkie, a man of *cough* conviction…
  
  Reply
- Daniel says:
  
  06:25pm | 07/05/12
  
  Gillard and the Liberals must really be trying to please some very powerful donors. I have no idea why she doesnt just do what the Greens and Wilkie want her to on this policy. It will save lives and stop the CLubs profiting off the weak and vulnerable.
  
  Reply
craig2 says:

06:57pm | 07/05/12

Because Daniel, bleeding heart pc left wingers like you think we need a nanny state to regulate the majority who have no gambling issues. People are big enough and ugly enough to make their own decisions in life and that includes pokies addiction. So Daniel, go back to tree hugging and saving the two headed turtle fish of Tasmania because no-one gives a flying fig about what your beloved greenies or Wilkie thinks at this present time or into the future.
jg says:

07:46pm | 07/05/12

I live in Canberra where clubs full of pokies have pretty much decimated the pubs. They can sell cheap beer, cheap meals, get concessions from the (ALP) government, can stay open longer without penalties. It’s a rort all designed to shovel truck loads of cash into the ALP coffers.

And as a musician, if they blew up all the pokies I wouldn’t be shedding a tear.
two headed turtle fish says:

07:59pm | 07/05/12

craig2
noice!
Have another bundy mate. she’ll be right.
Cathy says:

09:52pm | 07/05/12

Craig2, I can’t make up my mind what drives people like you to include statements such as “bleeding heart pc left wingers…” Is it a sense of superiority, or just plain nastiness, or is it perhaps something else? You’re right though, people are big and ugly enough to make their own decisions in life. So when it comes to driving for example are you going to start petitioning for people to make their own decisions about the roadworthiness of their vehicles, the speed at which they should travel, the amount of alcohol/drugs they should consume when driving and whether there is any merit in wearing seatbelts etc. Surely an adult can make all these decisions without the need for laws that enforce certain behaviour on the roads, vehicle safety etc. You will probably disagree with this for one reason or another but I don’t really see how you can. Please don’t give me the sob story about how it might affect others since those affected (and often quite severely) by someone else’s gambling are not even considered in your selfish post.
- Joel B1 says:
  
  06:46pm | 07/05/12
  
  Wilkie, despite being a noob is a master of the weasel words.
  
  After splitting with Gillard he’s declared “he’ll support her” unless there’s
  “serious proven rubbish about her exe’s”.
  
  Frankly the guy’s a nutjob.
  
  PS I have a cherished copy of his A4 “Why I ditched Gillard”. It’s up for sale. Bids start at $50 . Bidders with 0 and Greens need not apply.
  
  Reply
- renold says:
  
  08:44pm | 07/05/12
  
  Problem gambling has become a huge social problem. All the antics of some saying, well it is his/her choice forget one thing. One problem gambler affects several others.
  
  There is only one truth to pokies and Nick Xenaphon has said it….......it’s all about money. Easy money for both pokie barons and governments.
  
  A small population like SA, just check the pokie tax the Government receives.
  
  Reply
- Andrew says:
  
  09:22pm | 07/05/12
  
  She got rid of the policy because it would have killed her base, it would had hit hardest in there heartland. Ther primary vote is at 27% and you think she should introduce a policy which hurts labor heartland. Good luck with that. Im actually not sure what to think, people do get addicted and need help but how far do you let government dictate your lifes, and wether you like it not these clubs are a big part of ther communitys investing much of the money made back into the community. The one thing you could guarantee, if the government was making all the profits from the pokies there would be no way in hell they would be changing anything despite people being addicted to them.
  
  Reply
Judge Holden says:

07:09am | 08/05/12

I don’t really subscribe to the argument that clubs return money to the community - the money was in the community before they fleeced it from whoever was silly enough to sit in front of one of those machines. What if the money which would have been wasted on Pokies was spent at the local shop, the cinema, the dvd store, a market? Or on a few beers at the footy club?
Pokies cost communities a lot more than they return. Wilkie and Xenophon have been pretty consistent in spreading this message, but the major parties have put their heads in the sand.
I don’t consider this to be a nanny state issue either, more an issue of keeping a balance. What on Earth is the problem with precommittment? Surely nobody who had seen the agregious damage caused to families by problem gambling would have an issue with taking two minutes to register their committment?
- Onlooker says:
  
  07:59am | 08/05/12
  
  As it stand..as I see it..and I could be wrong. Labor will lose the next election, so in my mind it would be stupid to annoy voters with this pokie stuff, before the next election. Many of the people objecting to Poker Machine reform come Labor heartland. So why lose even more votes and they know Abbott will undo it if he is elected. Personally it is not an issue that affects me, I only spend about $20 a year on the pokies..I am the last of the big spenders. My husband and I don’t go to clubs and pubs. If by some chance they win the next election they could do something about it then
  
  Reply
- Dibatag says:
  
  09:54am | 08/05/12
  
  The argument that clubs and pubs help local sporting clubs is BS, we lived in a small town on the NSW far south coast and know what went on, the local IGA store put more money into the sporting club than anyone else did,things went really bad when the pubs were given pokies and TABs the town went from one TAB and three pokie venues to five pokie venues and four TABs this in a town of 3500 people which also had a large Aboriginal comunity close by,GO FIGURE .
  
  Reply
- Unhappy Fan says:
  
  10:16am | 08/05/12
  
  .I was a founding member of Bronco’s .
  
  We went to the auditorium where they had live big screen coverage of every away game and had a ball ( along with hundreds of members)
  
  They reduced the size of it by about half and installed pokies. Killed it!
  Downstairs they took out the billiard tables, dart boards etc and did the same, adding in a TAB and a cash machine.
  
  I voted with my feet. I have not been back and will not while they have pokies - I feel they are not true sportsmen just money grubbing accountants.
  
  Reply
- Alan says:
  
  10:34am | 08/05/12
  
  You want to tell me how much I can gamble? For that, you need to know what I can afford. Which means an accountant, with access to my tax returns, bank statements, credit history… pretty big invasion of my privacy. But wait! Multiply that by the MILLIONS of people in Australia, and don’t limit it to pokies there’s the fund-raising raffle tickets and Lotto players to consider as well…
  Next time a charity asks you to buy a raffle ticket, would they need to sight your Gambler’s License?
  
  Reply
- Dieter Moeckel says:
  
  01:10pm | 08/05/12
  
  Poky reform is so simple - plain packaging no flashing light or bells and whistles.
  if you look at the cost to society and the savings to be had plain packing for pokies and decriminalise drugs.
  Decriminalising drugs would do the budget more good than bad.
  
  Reply
- Jamers Hunter says:
  
  01:32pm | 08/05/12
  
  I would be more then happy to see the rotten things just all packaged up and sold off in Las Vagas. Give the proceeds back to the clubs and get on with life. I think to be fair I would also ban Internet gambling and any form of gambling that uses access to bank accounts.
  
  Reply

Sorry, comments are now closed for this article.

Facebook Recommendations

Read all about it

Punch live

Up to the minute Twitter chatter

lucyjk 19 May 13 02:24PM

RT @HeatherSmithAU: Can living in another country change your life for the better? by @lucyjk on @newscomau f. moi http://t.co/E5Ma3kBut2

penbo 19 May 13 01:02PM

@mooks83 sophisticated response. Think the kids parents saw it differently

penbo 19 May 13 12:50PM

More class from 9's footy show, lampooning a baby that allegedly looks like Sterlo with a pic swiped from Facebook http://t.co/BGoYP6Pn68

lucyjk 19 May 13 12:32PM

A story that's close to my heart - can living overseas change your life for the better? With thanks, @Alisa_redux http://t.co/n6tksJstqs

See all tweets

Nosebleed Section

choice ringside rantings

From: Hasbro, go straight to gaol, do not pass go

Tim says:

They should update other things in the game too. Instead of a get out of jail free card, they should have a Dodgy Lawyer card that not only gets you out of jail straight away but also gives you a fat payout in compensation for daring to arrest you in the first place. Instead of getting a hotel when you… [read more]

From: A guide to summer festivals especially if you wouldn’t go

Kel says:

If you want a festival for older people or for families alike, get amongst the respectable punters at Bluesfest. A truly amazing festival experience to be had of ALL AGES. And all the young "festivalgoers" usually write themselves off on the first night, only to never hear from them again the rest of… [read more]

Light weight

Gentle jabs to the ribs

Superman needs saving

Can somebody please save Superman? He seems to be going through a bit of a crisis. Eighteen months ago,… Read more

28 comments

Gillard’s time to go double or nothing on pokies

Must Reads

Most commented

40 comments

potatoes says:

Peter says:

renold says:

iansand says:

RyaN says:

Rosie says:

JTZ says:

craig2 says:

Craig Wright says:

Against the Man says:

sunny says:

Xeno says:

PJ says:

craig2 says:

Leo says:

ZSRenn says:

PJ says:

Mattb says:

craig2 says:

Mattb says:

dancan says:

Julia's Island says:

Pj says:

Esteban says:

jg says:

Daniel says:

craig2 says:

jg says:

two headed turtle fish says:

Cathy says:

Joel B1 says:

renold says:

Andrew says:

Judge Holden says:

Onlooker says:

Dibatag says:

Unhappy Fan says:

Alan says:

Dieter Moeckel says:

Jamers Hunter says:

Facebook Recommendations

Read all about it

Punch live

Up to the minute Twitter chatter

Recent posts

The latest and greatest

Nosebleed Section

choice ringside rantings

From: Hasbro, go straight to gaol, do not pass go

Tim says:

From: A guide to summer festivals especially if you wouldn’t go

Kel says:

Gentle jabs to the ribs

Newsletter

Read all about it

Sign up to the free News.com.au newsletter

Punching on today

Stuff at the bottom

Resources

Policies

Info