Julia Gillard had a pretty good week, for a change. Thanks to the tax forum and the jobs summit, political discussion was all about the economy.
That is the government’s greatest strength. The more voters focus on how well Australia is doing economically compared with the US and Europe, the better the government looks.
The two events had another benefit.
The calm and constructive tone, and the surprising amount of agreement that emerged, lowered the political temperature.
That was at least partly a result of Tony Abbott being sidelined. The opposition did not take part and so became irrelevant.
But when parliament resumes on Tuesday so will the aggro and nastiness that has become the norm in Australian politics. Attention will be back on asylum seeker policy, an issue on which the government can’t win.
Legislation to validate the sending of boat people to Malaysia - ruled unlawful by the High Court - is sitting there waiting to be voted down by the Coalition and the Greens.
The carbon tax controversy is ready to be revved up again. The government will cop it from all directions over its proposed poker machine controls.
Abbott will again be centre stage. Gillard’s weakness will be back on display. Labor’s nightmare will begin anew.
About to move into this toxic environment as communications chief in the prime minister’s office is John McTernan, former spin doctor in Tony Blair’s government in Britain. Since British Labour under Gordon Brown lost office last year, McTernan has been offering advice from the sidelines via blogs and newspaper columns.
He has done the same for Labour in Scotland since the party there suffered an electoral drubbing earlier this year. As a result he was recently dubbed by an on-line commentator the “King of the What Labor Must Do franchise”.
Now McTernan is bringing that franchise to Australia. His job is to tell Gillard what Labor must do here to get out of the hole she has dug for it.
It’s instructive to read some of McTernan’s columns in The Scotsman and his blogs for The Telegraph in London to get an idea of the kind of tips he’s likely to give her.
For a start, McTernan is full of pithy bits of political wisdom.Such as: “In politics you should always listen carefully to what your opponent is saying, but, more significantly, what they are not saying”.
And: “It’s a fundamental law of political campaigning that you should always be talking about whatever it is your opponent doesn’t want to mention.”
That makes sense. The trouble is, somebody obviously gave Tony Abbott the same advice some time ago.
In one of his columns, McTernan quotes what he says is a saying from the advertising industry: “How do you beat a man with a six-foot spear? Don’t start with a three-foot spear.”
It’s pretty clear in the Australian context which leader has which weapon.
As they watched the government’s fortunes go from bad to worse in recent months, Labor MPs have been complaining about the PM’s staff.
The consensus is that she has been getting poor—even naïve—political advice and badly needs a tough, experienced operator. One of the reasons Gillard hired him is presumably his ruthless, take-no-prisoners approach. McTernan says bluntly: “Politics is about winning.”
How should a politician go about it? He says he agrees with famous African American activist Malcolm X. “By any means necessary.”
And he means it.
“Everyone who aspires to public office has to be, at least in part, an intellectual thug,” McTernan asserts in a recent column. “It’s not pretty, but the public’s view is straightforward - if you won’t fight for your own job, why should I believe that you’ll fight for mine?”
While Gillard criticises Abbott for constant negativity, her new spinmeister is a strong believer in negative, attacking politics.
“There are a lot of myths about political campaigning. Top of these is the idea that negative campaigning never works,” he writes.
“A lot of people believe that because, whenever they are asked, the public declare they hate negative campaigns and swear they are never moved by them.
“As is often the case, voters are saying what they’d like to believe about themselves rather than describing how they actually act.
“Around the world, campaign after campaign shows that fear beats hope. And why wouldn’t it? After all, politics is a contact sport.”
It sounds as though McTernan will be training Gillard to try to beat Abbott at his own game.
Another hint about his likely approach is contained in a blog critical of the team behind Conservative PM David Cameron at 10 Downing Street, .
Every prime minister, McTernan writes, needs “at least one cynical pair of eyes” to advise on “what headlines a speech or briefing would deliver”.
The woman who thought a People’s Assembly was the way to deal with climate change policy and who failed to realise the consequences of breaking her “no carbon tax” election promise very definitely needs that kind of help.
Cynical eyes to counter her political tin ear.
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