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Gillard’s got a lot riding on Saturday’s Victorian election

Mark Kenny

by Mark Kenny

25 Nov 01:19pm

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Filed under: John Brumby, Julia Gillard, Politics, Victorian Election

42 comments

Prime Minister Julia Gillard will be among the more nervous onlookers at Saturday night’s Victorian election count.

Gillard must be hoping the Brumby hasn't bolted. Picture: Stuart McEvoy

While not in the frame herself, the poll is another test for a tarnished Labor brand and the first since her own underwhelming result in August.

She will take comfort from the facts Federal Labor did quite well in Victoria and the State Government of Premier John Brumby is widely seen as competent.

Mr Brumby goes into the election with a massive buffer of 23 seats thanks to the thumping victory achieved by Steve Bracks in 2006. The Opposition needs a uniform swing of at least 6.5 per cent to get the 13 seats needed to form a majority.

Despite this, opinion polls have charted an ever-tightening race.

Though unlikely, a defeat would be a significant repudiation of the State Government and would inevitably trigger recriminations within the ALP.

Ms Gillard would no doubt argue state elections do not turn on national issues and that voters are wise enough to distinguish between the two. True enough. But this is a special case.

Although raised in Adelaide, Victoria is Ms Gillard’s home ground.

Her closeness to Mr Brumby, for whom she once worked as chief of staff, is well known.

She would struggle to stand aloof from any electoral setback.

Would it be fatal for her? No, but it would be a significant morale sapper for a party which is in a deal more trouble than the raw numbers suggest.

Having just scraped through in SA and now in minority Greens-dependent arrangements federally, in Tasmania and in the ACT, Labor’s once strong grip on the states is now geriatric.

WA voters got rid of their beige Labor government and Queensland voters would do the same right now if they could.

In New South Wales, the situation is so bad that a gormless Opposition is the unbackable favourite when voters get their chance next March. Victoria remains Labor’s last best hope.

If it falls, or even lists badly, it would be hard to avoid the conclusion that if Julia Gillard were the answer, the question had little to do with winning elections.

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42 comments

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    • fairsfair says:

      12:34pm | 25/11/10

      He will win. I also think Anna Bligh will be returned in Queensland at the next state election. Nobody will ever admit to voting for her, but they all will. I don’t get it.

      Reply

    • Bryndal says:

      12:40pm | 25/11/10

      It is because the opposition in both states are useless. The NSW Libs are tied up with the whacky religious right & in QLD the NLP brand has done its best to shoot itself in the foot at every opportunity. Its the deveil you know.

    • hearsay says:

      01:01pm | 25/11/10

      Bryndal do you have any evidence to back up your assertions? O’Farrell has an extensive policy manifesto already (check his website) and is one of the few opposition leaders ever to outpoll an incumbent as preferred premier, despite the fact that Keneally is a lot more popular than her party.

      I think you’ll also find that most of the stirring in the libs at the moment is being done by the religious right who are angry that they are being shut out of the party by the moderate right and the left.

    • RT says:

      03:06pm | 25/11/10

      Brumby will win… but it will be close. In Queensland Bligh does not have a chance… you know that the people don’t want you when they long for the days of Sir Joh…

    • nosthow says:

      03:24pm | 25/11/10

      @fairsfair - I will be voting for Anna Bligh fairsfair - look at the state of the LNP in QLD and theres no-one else to vote for - and shes a honey !

    • Joan says:

      04:10pm | 25/11/10

      Love to know the cost of Labor TV advertising there are more ads for Labor between 5-10pm at night than anyother product. Hope voters have been turned off by nightly half hourly dose of Brumby face

    • David says:

      12:16am | 26/11/10

      @Bryndal, it’s generally acknowledged that NSW Labor is going to be utterly obliterated next March.

    • acotrel says:

      06:31am | 26/11/10

      Although I’m a labor supporter, I’ve never liked John Brumby.  I’ve always believed that school teachers lack industrial experience, and are thus incompetent.  That said, I will be voting for him next Saturday.  The state of Victoria is well run and prosperous, so he’s got the runs on the board

    • Brad of Bentleigh says:

      11:33pm | 26/11/10

      “well run and prosperous”?
      You mean the same Victoria that has the slowest growth of any state in Australia (excluding the basket case that is NSW)?
      You mean the same Victoria that has had the better part of a decade on water restrictions?
      The same Vic that had the $1.3bil MyKi debacle… what, only a billion over budget for a product that could have been bought “off the shelf”?
      The same Vic that has the least affordable housing?
      The same Vic with crime out of control?

      Should I go on? You’re kidding aren’t you?

    • Eno The Wonderdog says:

      12:43pm | 25/11/10

      Hmm - if a state election is important for Gillard are you implying that it’s similarly important for Abbot?

      Surely if Labor losing is a kick inna fork for them then Liberal failing to win is a similar kick inna fork for Liberal??

      Reply

    • Wayne Fehlhaber says:

      02:48pm | 25/11/10

      Eno The Wonderdog :  you are barking up the wrong tree.  The test is to gauge the electorate’s response to Gillard’s governing to date . Tony Abbott isn’t the P.M. making the decisions , Gillard is .  Not that she has made any decisions of any import.  Sure , i know it’s a state election but Mark Kenny is suggesting the outcome will be an indication of just how well Gillard is seen to be performing.
      Let’s hope Labor gets the boot in the arse that it deserves and Victorians , at least , will get some relief from Labor’s incompetence.

    • Steve says:

      12:43pm | 25/11/10

      the only good thing about a Labor victory on Saturday would be that every complaint about every single thing in Victoria could be answered with exactly the same words: “Well, you keep voting Labor!”

      Reply

    • Daniel says:

      12:46pm | 25/11/10

      I think this article has a very shaky basis. We never heard about the imminent collapse of the Liberal party after Howards home territory of NSW was repeatedly won by the ALP in state elections. I suspect a lot of the state governments will fall at their next elections, but it will be because they have been there for a long long time (in electoral terms), and not because of any federal backlash.

      Reply

    • Wayne Fehlhaber says:

      02:58pm | 25/11/10

      Daniel :  In fact this article has a very firm basis indeed. Howard lost office after having 4 terms as P.M. .  Gillards government is totally hobbled to the Green’s agenda . Look at the problems we have in the country and yet we address Gay marriage and Aboriginal acknowledgement in our constitution .
      Keep in mind that Labor was unable to actually win a second election after just one term . They had to be propped up by the Greens and independents who now hold them to a radical agenda.
      To this point in time , Gillard has achieved nothing except the abandonment of election promises.
      Victoria may give her a good hard slap.

    • MarK says:

      12:49pm | 25/11/10

      I really do not think it matters to be honest.

      Just like come March the NSW will not matter federally.

      Bragging rights and what not excluded the 2 state elections are really state matters this time

      /shrug - the only interesting one is Victoria anyway where the underdog has the faintest of hopes. NSW will be by how far.

      Reply

    • nosthow says:

      12:49pm | 25/11/10

      Labor to win is nosthows confident prediction Mark. The only Liberal govt in Australia today is in WA and I dont think we will see any change on Saturday in Vic. The problem with the Libs on all levels is they do not have any credible policies or vision for Australia’s future hence the voting public have abandoned them. One day from the ashes of the Liberal mess will rise someone with half a brain who might just listen to what Australia wants - but thats a long way off yet !

      Reply

    • Richard says:

      01:50pm | 25/11/10

      What happened last time you confidently predicted a Labor victory nosthow? I wonder if we’ll have to hear you go on for the 3 three months about Ted stuffing up an “unloseable” election as well?

    • Mike T says:

      02:33pm | 25/11/10

      So i take it that you will note a comfortable ALP win at the up comming NSW state election??

      Is so please take your antipsychotic medication and let me know how much you would like to place on the wager

    • Robert S McCormick says:

      01:07pm | 25/11/10

      As an expatriate Victorian a word of warning for all Victorians! Have a close look at South Australia. They re-elected their “All talk & NO action” ALP government in March. The Rann ALP SA Government is plagued by claims of nepotism, corruption, jobs for the boys/girls. many of the claims have been shown to be FACTUAL. The longer a political party is in office the greater the chance that it will become corrupt. They can’t help themselves. They get into such deep debt with individuals, particularly those within their own Parties, that they have to start handing out rewards. Just like the churches have used cover-up & redeployment to hide their clergy & nuns who get caught accused of child sex & physical abuse & thereby avoid the Law of the Land so too do politicians start to become secretive & dishonest. It was almost by accident that it was revealed that the SA Premier had appointed a man as Special Envoy to a part of Italy almost no-one other than those who come from their had ever heard of. He’s paying him $200,000+ per year to do nothing & this is to go on for another 4 years. He paid out $17,000 of taxpayer’s money to pay fro the printing of a book of this same man’s pictures! All in secret. He appointed a woman to be in charge of trade between South Australia & Italy. She doesn’t speak a word of Italian. Why did he appoint her? Because she had been a Public Servant for some years - never mind she is the daughter of a former State ALP MP.
      Everything it does it refuses to release details & hides behind that tired old cliché “Commercial IN Confidence”
      This is the same Government which refuses, as did the ALP in Victoria until a few short weeks ago, to create a FULLY Independent Crime & Corruption Commission! We are gradually beginning to find out why. The Rann ALP Government thought nothing of cheating at the March Election, phony How to Vote Cards, masqerading in clothing especially designed & manufactured to mislead voters onto thinking they were voting for one Party when in fact they were ensuring the ALP got those votes.

      Reply

    • LJ says:

      03:11pm | 25/11/10

      That’s politics mate. Been happening for centuries from both parties…

      It’s only with the advent of the internet that these types of things cannot be buried as easily. But they will still happen.

    • Sheba says:

      01:27pm | 25/11/10

      I don’t think so.

      State Labor has been on the nose for ages. NSW Labor has no chance in March. It’s a foregone conclusion.

      No point saying that it has anything to do with Federal Labor.

      Reply

    • TChong says:

      02:43pm | 25/11/10

      A completely apolitical question Punchers.
      Does anyone know, under NSW constitution,fixed four year terms,
      if a minority govt / coalition of whatever parties becomes unworkable, what would happen ?
      Is blocking of supply sufficient for the NSW govenor to ask the GG to disolve the parliament, calling an election ?
      or would some other process be observed ?

      Reply

    • Just Sayin' says:

      02:47pm | 25/11/10

      A question on forming government is not a political question?

    • Nigel Catchlove says:

      03:06pm | 25/11/10

      I think the NSW Governor (not the GG) has to determine that the Government has lost the confidence of the NSW people and this would normally be signalled by a vote passing in the lower house expressing no-confidence in the Premier. Rampant incompetence, corruption and moral terpitude are not enough and the people of NSW get the government they vote for.

    • incervisiaveritas says:

      03:23pm | 25/11/10

      Section 24B of the Constitution Act provides for the early dissolution of parliament in the following circumstances:
      1. A motion of no confidence in the government has been passed
      2. The legislative Assembly has rejected or failed to pass an Appropriation Bill for the ordinary annual services of government
      3. The election date needs to be moved forward because of a clash with a federal election, holiday period or some similar inconvenience; and
      4. Where the Governor could otherwise do in accordance with other constitutional conventions

    • grumpy old man says:

      02:58pm | 25/11/10

      a pox on both their houses! Sate Govt should be abolished, save us all a lot of money. Just make the states into super councils, amalgamate the police forces and other state based organisations, standardize the laws of the land and stop waffling on about an anachronistic constitutional arrangement. Where is it written that what worked 100 years ago should stay in place today and for the future?

      Reply

    • Rick says:

      03:24pm | 25/11/10

      @TChong
      If the government of NSW loses a vote of No Confidence on the floor of the House it would resign.  If nobody had the numbers to achieve a Confidence vote then there would be an election.
      The Governor of any state does not consult with the Governor General on any issue regarding the government of the state of which they are Governor.  Each State Governor is autonomous and acts entirely on their own initiative within the constitutional conventions.
      Hope that helps.
      As for the article - what a croc!
      While Gillard would undoubtedly prefer to see Labor returned and The Abbott would like to see the Libs win neither will be able to draw any relevance from the result. It is a state poll fought on state issues.  The next Federal Election is 3 years away so there is nothing at stake Federally with respect to the result on Saturday.
      The Murdoch driven mantra that Gillard is under threat is tiresome.  It is possible that ayy journalist is capable of reporting on matters of substance as opposed to wishful speculation?

      Reply

    • Colin J Ely says:

      08:10pm | 25/11/10

      So do people really think that we mere plebians vote for one party in State elections and another party in Federal elections?

    • Hung Up says:

      03:32pm | 25/11/10

      A plague on all their houses.  I hopw next year there will be more trully Independents like Nick Xenaphon and the excellent Ted Mack.

      Reply

    • TimB says:

      04:06pm | 25/11/10

      MikeT’s already made the offer Nosthow. What are you willing to bet on the outcome of the NSW election?

    • nosthow says:

      07:31pm | 25/11/10

      @TimB - not looking too good in NSW Timmy but being a betting man one thing I do know is that there is no such thing as a sure thing. “Dumpy” O’Farrell is not the best horse in the field is he ? Is NSW so devoid of Liberal talent that the Libs had to roll out old “Dumpy” ? I remember when he had a big beard some years ago.

    • MarK says:

      10:22pm | 25/11/10

      Intersting story that.

      A shame you lack the wherewithal to understand the implication which is entrenching a new government owned monopoly into our teleommunication system.

      Should be awesome.

      Really good advertisement for the NBN. “So popular we make you join.”

    • iansand says:

      07:15am | 26/11/10

      It’s OK, Mark.  If it’s a winner Abbott will change his tune pretty quickly.  As you know, this little round of nonsense has nothing to do with principle.  It is driven solely by politics.

    • persephone says:

      08:17am | 26/11/10

      MarK

      as opposed to the entrenched private sector monopoly of the sytem at present?

      Everyone - except for the Liberal party - has been advocating the structural separation of Telstra since, well, forever.

      That the Howard government ensured that Telstra had an effective monopoly when it came to accessing the infrastructure, forcing its competitors to come cap in hand to them, was all about the government maximising its price for the system - and even then, they sold it for far less than its worth.

      This has led to the situation we’re in now; it’s not worth Telstra’s competitors putting in the infrastructure, because they’d have to get Telstra to let them, which is not going to happen. And Telstra doesn’t need to bother.

      As a result, we’ve fallen far behind the rest of the world when it comes to broadband (we’re number 50 on the list for broadband speeds).

      The legislation in front of the Senate now will solve this problem, and create the opportunity for real competition in the telecommunications industry.

      As for providing people with access to the network creating a ‘monopoly’, it’s a bit like whinging that you’re forced to drive on the road that runs by your driveway and aren’t being given a choice of roads to connect your driveway to.

    • Against the Man says:

      09:01am | 26/11/10

      The ALP and mismanagement go hand in hand. Vote them in for more bad years. Federal and State ALP are the same incompetent monster. Think about this, since being PM, Gillard’s greatest achievement is having a step daughter of sorts that was on the cover of ZOO magazine.

      Reply

    • Mouse says:

      03:20pm | 26/11/10

      That’s “defacto” step daughter!  Gillard can’t even really lay any claims on that either! lol

    • tommy says:

      09:03am | 26/11/10

      we all know who this newspaper wants to win. dont we. shhhhhh.  ha ha.

      Reply

    • casba says:

      01:02pm | 26/11/10

      Rave on Persephone, rave on with your Labor propaganda! Blah blah blah. So predictable.

      Reply

    • persephone says:

      12:57pm | 27/11/10

      Brilliant rebuttal, casba.

      I take it you can’t actually disprove a thing I said.

    • Deano says:

      01:59pm | 26/11/10

      Winning elections in this country has nothing to do with competence or good government. The logic’s much simpler: Labor has the best spin-doctors, loads of tax-free union donations, and 75% of Australian journalists on its side. With the system stacked against them, it’s amazing the Libs ever get a look in.

      Reply

    • tommy says:

      05:45pm | 26/11/10

      deano.    what planet are you on.  its obvious you dont read the courier mail. you would make a good comedian.  good luck.

 
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