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Gillard in big trouble no matter what happens

Leo Shanahan

by Leo Shanahan

23 Aug 05:40am

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Filed under: Election 2010, Julia Gillard, Labor Party, Liberal Party, Tony Abbott

65 comments

In an unlikely attempt to continue to govern Julia Gillard will be dammed by the two words that she has said are central to her claim to power: legitimacy and stability. A Gillard Labor Government cannot make a claim to either.

Gillard forming minority coffee table status. Picture: Gary Ramage

When she called the election last month Prime Minister Gillard said that she was seeking legitimacy from the Australian people after she toppled Kevin Rudd in a Prime Ministerial coup:

“I made a pledge to the Australian people on the day I became Prime Minister that they would, soon, be able to exercise their birth right, their choice of who should lead this nation.  So I’m delivering on that promise today,” she said when calling the election.

Well the choice has been made and it’s not her and the Labor Party. Granted it’s not Tony Abbott and the Coalition either, but the swing and the inability to form a majority for this is Government is more than an expression of discontent – they’ve lost this election.

This is was Abbott’s point on Saturday night when he said that “the Government had lost its legitimacy.”

After Gillard’s dour speech on election night, a group of Labor supporters at Labor HQ starting chanting in the tone of primary school children “Abbott’s got no mandate, Abbott’s got no mandate”. It’s all they could hold on to at that point, and also begs the question, what do Labor have?

Without getting too drawn into the discussion of whether the party that has the majority of the two party preferred or a primary vote deserves victory, the key independents who could go either way, Katter, Windsor and Oakeshott, are more likely to be swayed by the party with the greatest amount of seats. At time of writing this looks like the Coalition 73 to 72.

If that changes to be in Labor’s favour it is the strongest argument Julia Gillard will have to hold onto power, but if it gets worse Labor could hardly try and form a government with a straight face. 

Yesterday the Prime Minister said stability should be the key consideration of the independents in forming a government:

“Which party can proceed and process the business of the Australian people and get legislation passed though the parliament?”

Well if the Labor Party has to rely on the three conservative leaning independents to form a Government the answer is not Labor. The best hope for Gillard is that Labor claw back one more seat, and with the help of the left wing Green Adam Bandt and left leaning Andrew Wilke, put together a government with one of the other three.

How stable would it be, for example, for a Labor minority government trying to get an ETS through with a Green MP and Bob Katter?

There’s also the legitimate question of Labor’s own internal stability. Blame is already being heaped upon those behind the Rudd coup, especially NSW Right chiefs Mark Arbib and Karl Bitar, NSW and Queensland Governments, responsibility for leaks and Labor’s lackluster campaign. How much stability can there be in a minority government led by a feuding party which, by virtue of cutting down its leader only eight weeks ago, became fatally unstable in just its first time?

If a badly functioning minority government is forced to go to another election within a year it is most likely Tony Abbott who will benefit from an electorate looking for certainty. Like 1975 it will finish off the Labor Government, and Abbott will do everything within his power to bring on this eventuality.

Julia Gillard and the Labor Party are in huge trouble after this election, whether they can form a Government or not.

Most commented

65 comments

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    • Eric says:

      05:48am | 23/08/10

      How long will Gillard last as PM or Opposition Leader? My guess is three months if the former, three weeks if the latter.

      Reply

    • Sherlock says:

      09:23am | 23/08/10

      My question to all the lefties is after Gillard - WHO?

    • Rohan says:

      11:59am | 23/08/10

      I am not to shore about 3 months or three weeks.  I think the powerbrokers are going to be worried that if they dispose of Gillard it will be perceived that it will confirm every bad thing said about the Labor party is true.  My guess is at least a year.  Untill they can justify taking her out.

    • Ray Graham says:

      12:38pm | 23/08/10

      3 months, three weeks, three days. That’s the gestation period for pig breeding (true). 3months pregnancy, 3 weeks to wean the piglets, three days before sow conceives again.

      There’s a huge parallel here. 3 months to stuff the economy with transparent promises, 3 weeks to try and convince piglets the stuff ups are not my fault and the real Julia will follow, 3 days to F*** the electorate by getting re-elected. Then start all over again

    • Phil says:

      12:58pm | 23/08/10

      Eric, your on the right path, personally I think wrong timeline. PM wont last 12-15 months, enough to get past NSW and QLD state elections.
      If she loses, she will hold on for 6 months, then Combet/Shorten will have a go. She would be a better opposition leader than PM.
      If she is PM in a minority gov, she cant get any legislation passed without Greens, and Independants in the Senate. Therefore her budget and policies are stuffed till at least July next year. This will frustrate her and the party and even the Australian people. If she does get in my money is on a DD election late next year which Abbott will win in a landslide.
      Abbott could put Turnbull in as Treasurer/Finance if he is unlucky to get government and he would blow them out of the water. Swan v Turnbull no contest. Julia is clinging on as she doesnt want to be known as the 3 week bogan PM.

    • Front Row says:

      06:43pm | 23/08/10

      Eric - Don’t forget there is an horrific budget about to be called down in SA, after it was delayed for several months to avid it brightening the bejesus out of the voters.
      That’s due in the next few weeks.
      If you thought NSW and QLD had trouble with the old state/federal Labor Party cross-anger, wait for this one, from the Govt that gave you the State Bank. This immediately swings SA out of the Gillard orbit in seats like Wakefield. There is no way Labor can afford to go back to the polls.

    • Tony of Poorakistan says:

      08:37pm | 23/08/10

      Front Row

      you are dead right. Not only the budget, including as it will, the revised Adelaide Oval figure, but also the release of the report into Burnside Council, further revelations about the development process as it works in SA, the detailed plans for those monstrous pumping stations for the desalination plant to be built across Adelaide to allow the desalinated water (which is about the same price per litre as scotch) to be mixed with the normal water supply . . .the list goes on. And wait till Foley tells the ALP faithful how many jobs he plans to cull from the state public service.

      Frankly, I am amazed that the ‘hometown girl’ factor won Gillard a few seats. Wong’s complete lack of action should have lost them a few, if anything.

      South Australia is struggling under the Rann government and the Rudd-Gillard government did nothing for them either. Compare the last few years to when SA had senior Cabinet ministers who actually got things done for SA. It was Rob Hill and Alexander Downer who won the Defence contracts and SA hasn’t won any since. Mitsubishi has closed down and companies such as BankSA, Adelaide Bank, Ipec etc are now just branch offices for Westpac, Bendigo Bank and Toll.

      I work in IT and there used to be quite a few large IT shops in Adelaide. Now, there is nothing. No wonder all the bright young things head east.

    • Back to the Polls says:

      05:52am | 23/08/10

      Various State minority govts have shown that it can work -  SA & WA most recently - but this picture is even more complex in many ways with different forces pulling all over the place, possibly in 5 different directions on some issues…and even if the ALP, or LNP for that matter, can pull together a combination of members in the Reps that works and even holds, what then in the Senate?  Short version: buggered.

      Reply

    • Adam Diver says:

      08:32am | 23/08/10

      Labor don’t really want to win in this situation. But I fear they can’t afford to lose a one-term government. As someone bitterly dissapointed in labors performance all I can say, is you get what you deserve.

    • dovif says:

      09:07am | 23/08/10

      Labor relying on the Greens support and the Right leaning independant

      It would not get anything through the HOR or the Senate

    • fehowarth says:

      10:54am | 23/08/10

      Do not the rights of the Greens and other minority parties have any merit? The present system of winner takes all does not make sense. You are saying that only one party has all the answers.  I am old enough to remember Mr. Menzies not being to proud to steal policies from Labor after elections.  Mr. Abbott would be better at looking at what can work instead of what he destroys. It is not about whom, what is right, or wrong, it is about what is the best way to do it. There is more than one way to skin a cat.
      I am not a Green voter.

    • John C says:

      06:22am | 23/08/10

      The Australian people elected a Labor Government three years ago led by Rudd. He was deposed without reference to the electorate. Gillard’s excuse for calling the election was that she sought conformation of what she had done by the Australian people. The electorate has not given her that confirmation. Ergo, she has no legitimacy to form a government.

      Had the same result occurred under a government led by Rudd, he could have validly argued that he had been elected as PM and was entitled to remain so unless and until a clear electoral majority revoked his authority. He could have argued legitimacy.

      Gillard came to power through a political coup and seeks to return power by an electoral coup.

      Bad woman.

      Reply

    • Faz says:

      09:40am | 23/08/10

      The electorate has not given her that confirmation. Ergo, she has no legitimacy to form a government.

      Good logical construction John, but the first part is not established as a fact and, perhaps just as importantly, the electorate has not given the opposition legitimacy either.

      While there is no doubt that labour has been given a good kicking, the biggest boots belong to the Greens not the Coalition. In some states Labor held it’s own or even attracted a swing its way. What is consistent is the surge in votes for the Greens.

      So, who is best placed to form a stable relationship with The Greens?

      Gillard came to power through a political coup and seeks to return power by an electoral coup.

      You could replace ‘Gillard’ with ‘Abbott’ and it would be just as true. In fact as sneaky back door coups go, the Coalition takes the cake both in quantity and quality.

    • Laura says:

      11:21am | 23/08/10

      Well said and spot on John C.

      Leo Shanahan, what an excellent piece of writing.

    • Faz says:

      07:07am | 23/08/10

      Juming the gun a bit, Leo?

      At this stage, given that Adam Brandt has made his position clear, it looks like a dead set dead lock.

      Your notion of who or who is not ‘legitimate’ is pure Liberal Party spin.

      The Liberal Party has won 43 seats and is effectively in coalition with The Nationals, the LNP and the CLP.

      If Labour can stitch a coalition together (assuming it will be possible) it will be as legitimate, according to how our electoral system works, as if it had won a landslide. Same with the Coalition.

      I wouldn’t be too quick to label the three independents as ‘conservative leaning’ either. They come across as ... well ... independents. They have, at times, made it very clear that there’s not much love between them and The Nationals in particular. The may look at the Senate too and see it as a ‘progressive leaning’ house and ask who is more likely to be able to negotiate a stable outcome.

      Formal legitimacy comes from having the numbers, even if they’re stitched up. Neither side has a monopoly on moral legitimacy, they’ll have to earn it.

      All things staying equal, my money would be on Gillard and while he has shown that it’s dangerous to underestimate him, I doubt if ‘crash or crash through’ Abbott can seriously sell his side as a paragon of stability.

      Reply

    • Tails says:

      11:20am | 23/08/10

      The difference being, they were a coalition BEFORE the election.

    • BW says:

      11:22am | 23/08/10

      Ah, the ALP stooges are becoming so clever now, they’re even deliberately bungling the spelling of “Labor” to stay in cover.

    • MRCQ says:

      01:31pm | 23/08/10

      FAZ here here….BW & Tails….the electioneering is over you Libs can go back to doing what you do best slag off at everyone else that doesn’t vote LIB! You talk about back stabbing, diposing leaders ..go back to your recent past for that kind of behaviour….even your lorded leader in Howard had a few goes at it before he eventually got in the PM position- wasn’t he knifed a few times ..Oh and lies..you LIBs hold your own there!

      As for LIB policies ...what were they again…oh you didn’t have any! I would give my preference to the Greens / Independents before I give you Libs my vote any day!

    • iansand says:

      07:15am | 23/08/10

      How long to the next election?  18 months?

      Reply

    • MarK says:

      07:59am | 23/08/10

      More like 6 I would think if Labor gets the booby prize. Maybe 12-18 under the Libs

    • iansand says:

      08:19am | 23/08/10

      I’m assuming that the conservative independents will give Abbott government.

    • Gregg says:

      08:42am | 23/08/10

      Without any byelections becoming necessary, I’d reckon a Liberal government will call an election at a time of their choosing and if they reckon it is best to go full term they could likely do so if dependents work well enough with them.

    • fehowarth says:

      10:40am | 23/08/10

      That depends on whether the media is willing to give it a fair go.  Grow up, sometimes change is in our best interest.  The two party system is being found wanting.  Statesmen can make it work. If it can work in most other western countries, surely we are mature to do so,

    • MarK says:

      11:55am | 23/08/10

      They probably will ian…not 100% sure though.

      The ETS will be even more interesting now. I know Oakeshott (my local member) supports it - hence he lost me BUT will he support one the Greens are happy with?

      Interesting times. I do really think that at heart all 3 care about the bush and that will decide their thinking in the long run.

    • Against the Man says:

      07:24am | 23/08/10

      Great article Leo. I always said that Gillard was a sham and Australians have backed that up with last Sat’s poll results. People were always saying she would sweep the polls and mop Abbott up. Guess what? She did not even come close. HEr legacy like Rudd’s is pure mud.

      Reply

    • Dommy says:

      02:14pm | 23/08/10

      Gillard lost many seats, Tony gained many seats. This isn’t poison, it is called a reality check. Gillard back stabbed Rudd and tried to sell us incompetent, wasteful policy. Australians voiced their protest.

    • acotrel says:

      10:47pm | 23/08/10

      Gillard back stabbed Rudd and tried to sell us incompetent, wasteful policy. Australians voiced their protest.

      Of course it was incompetent, wasteful policy.  The Liberal party has assured us of that and they wouldn’t lie?

    • DougB says:

      07:49am | 23/08/10

      Anyone else think that Bill Shorten looked terribly stressed and scared on Polling night when they crossed over to interview him?

      Reply

    • Mayday says:

      08:24am | 23/08/10

      Very, very scared and Paul Howes looked a pale shade of sap green!

    • fairsfair says:

      08:36am | 23/08/10

      missed that one DougB, but if it was anything like Channel 9’s cross to Swanny it would have been worth a watch. Hands down my favourite election moment of 2010. Watching someone reason that having a massive swing against you and losing out on primary vote “is just the nature of how Queenslanders vote and not a reflection on him or labor” and was expected was hilarious. I thought he was going to do the Rose Hancock/ACA there for a minute… I can’t hear you….  hahahahah!

    • Gregg says:

      08:45am | 23/08/10

      Yep, both not happy chappies!
      Like Shorty Capone may be wondering whether he’ll have to try working MIL around!
      And then they could be both in for some digital making over.

    • acotrel says:

      08:07am | 23/08/10

      It will be poetic justice if progression of the coalition depends on Tony Abbott’s negotiating skills!

      Reply

    • MarK says:

      12:01pm | 23/08/10

      Why?

      Seems to have done a brilliant job so far. Where are the “unelectable Tony” boosters now?

      When he got the job Labor already this term penned in.

      Hubris pure and simple. Abbott showed everyone he has the stuff to do the job as PM.

      Hint: 50% of us thought so too.

    • John GW says:

      08:32am | 23/08/10

      The Australian people have spoken.  Is Julia Gillard willing to hear what we have said

      Reply

    • Dommy says:

      10:09am | 23/08/10

      No she hears what she wants to hear. Gillard and the Labor party have lost all credibility.

    • fehowarth says:

      10:35am | 23/08/10

      Listen to what the independents are stating.  They appear to be agreeing with Labors policies not the Coalition as being in their best interest.  The message they are giving is that it is about stable government not parties.  It is time we grew up and come into the modern age.  We should be glad to see the end of the two party systems. As for the allegations against the GG. It is insulting to say she cannot make up her own mind.  The woman has a long and independent successful career.  Would they be saying the same if she was the father-n-law

    • Fred Biblic says:

      11:39am | 23/08/10

      “Would they be saying the same if she was the father-n-law”

      Yes

    • Gregg says:

      08:39am | 23/08/10

      So one way or another it seems that Julia is on for another digital moveover is it?

      Reply

    • A real labor person says:

      08:44am | 23/08/10

      Swan looks a cooked goose now, so who will take on the party that forgot it’s electorate?  Combet looks alike the last man standing; kept out of all of it (even living in his gifted electorate).
      then we really will have the party for self-interest.

      Good points - I want legitimacy & stability in case it comes at the expense of my nose in the trough.
      Do the right thing; It took Gordon Brown in the UK some time to do it, partly because the party’s best interest was to lose the next 3 horrible years. But here?
      ms Negoseate should not negotiate to save her broad beam but show grace and move on.

      Reply

    • Hunter says:

      03:27pm | 23/08/10

      A real labor person - the problem is that Combet DOESN’T live in his gifted electorate! He decided to live in a more up market area near the coast!

    • Titch101 says:

      08:58am | 23/08/10

      I think the 2pp vote should only come into play if the primary vote is too close to call eg. 250000 votes.    The 2pp system does not really represent the majority of the peoples views and I consider it to be undemocratic.

      Reply

    • MarK says:

      12:04pm | 23/08/10

      Hmmmm. Having two parties pretty close together on major issues with a few differences at the margins and in delivery and style gave us a hung parliament.

      And that is undemocratic? Seems perfectly logical under a democratic system.

    • Mikeymike says:

      02:22pm | 23/08/10

      And let’s not forget that from election to election, there will always be voters that will only vote for their party.  Don’t know the exact stats, but I’ve heard figures of up to 70% of the electorate will vote for Labor or Liberal every single election.

      So the 2pp does represent the views of the nation.  The good news is that swinging voters have a great deal more influence on the outcome than they would otherwise.

    • Democrat says:

      10:51am | 23/08/10

      Hey Leo - looks like the dot points for this article came directly from Liberal Party HQ.  The fact is the Party with the majority of seats in the Parliament will form the government and no amount of spin from either side will change that.  Remember the primary vote for Labor and the Liberals - as opposed to the coalition vote - is almost neck and neck (the Libs slightly ahead)  but there are still over 1 million votes to be counted.  I make this point because the Liberals NEVER have enough votes or seats to govern alone.  They always govern in Coalition - a coalition which now consists of the Liberals, the National Party, the Liberal National Party and (they are now hoping) the Western Australian Nationals.  Now they want to add the Independents to the mix.  In any case we have a preferential system of voting in this country and it is the Two Party Preferred which provides the final indication as to where the majority of people finally cast their votes.

      Reply

    • Moggy says:

      01:58pm | 23/08/10

      Like it or not Democrat…..these articles give us, the voters a chance to give our opinions, to vent our spleens & to praise where praise in deserved…As WE see it! That’s democracy for you. Try doing that in China or North Korea.

    • Amber says:

      11:11am | 23/08/10

      Titch101 - right on the money!  The winner is there and pretty clear for all to see.

      Reply

    • Dissident says:

      11:13am | 23/08/10

      Whoever forms government, they only have six months to get any legislation through. As soon as the Greens control the Senate, with their far left agenda (somewhere between Lenin and Castro) will ensure no party will be able to get anything through.

      This will have a couple benefits, though. There is likely going to be some bi-partisan work done between the two major parties, since they will need each other’s support. Because they are the only two parties that have a realistic chance to govern in any election, their policies are usually reasonable.

      Maybe this is the best thing that could happen for Australians. There are too many people that just don’t see the Greens irrational policies for what they are. Doctor’s wives (or husbands!), for example, will stop voting for the Greens when they see how much more tax their spouses would have to pay.

      Hopefully we get a double dissolution election so the Democrats can get a foot in the door (with the lower threshold required to get a seat) and remind the people of Australia that the balance of power in the Senate should be held by a party with no ideology other than providing good legislation for Australia. Keep the Bastards Honest.

      Or heres a crazy idea - maybe Senators should ask “What’s in it for my State?” You know, their Constitutional role? Anyone remember that?

      Reply

    • Tails says:

      11:35am | 23/08/10

      From The Age:

      Leading betting agency Centrebet has Mr Shorten, a Victorian Labor-right figure who is married to the daughter of Governor-General Quentin Bryce, a $2.70 favourite, with Ms Gillard at $4.10.

      OooOoOoOOOOoooOoHHHhhH!!!!

      Reply

    • MarK says:

      12:02pm | 23/08/10

      What price Combet.

      I said ages ago he would be the next Labor PM and I meant it. Not leader….PM.

    • Laura says:

      11:45am | 23/08/10

      Looking at Gillard throughout her campaign and at yesterday’s press conference it is clear this woman is becoming unhinged. I have noticed she is often moody and short when things have not gone her way and she can not hide her anger and frustration when she has to answer questions not to her liking. Her multiple personas and harping anti- Abbott messages together with those bizarre hand and head movements point to a woman who is becoming more and more unstable. I don’t think the independents want to go back to the ballot box in a hurry and so based on Gillard’s performances alone ( both real and fake) they would have to come to the conclusion that this woman is not PM material. Anyway it is clear that Labor has become a blood-letting no-man’s land, with a multitude of agendas. In the last few days Kevin Rudd has been making his famous phone calls and Bill Shorten is waiting in the wings, holding his mother in law’s hand. It is clear that the leaks will continue and Julia Gillard is losing friends by the day. Stability under Gillard? I don’t think so.

      Reply

    • Ray Graham says:

      12:58pm | 23/08/10

      Julia should be sounding out for another career. Bill Shorten will be replacing her in another bloodless coup. Maxine McKew will be able to show you the ropes.

      I had a great weekend. 38 points at Golf, won the Friday evening raffle at the GC, Maxine got rolled, Julia got rolled, Raiders won. Can it get any better than rolling the only female PM from imposter to gonzies. Will the real Julia stand up, lay down or just fade away (in true ‘THE WHO’ fashion.)

      Reply

    • Polywatcher says:

      07:09pm | 23/08/10

      Talking about Maxine McKew (Mrs Hogg) when are the removalists arriving to take her back to Mosman now that her political career is over.

    • Pip says:

      01:38pm | 23/08/10

      Sad to see all you Libs being still in attack mode, true Labor believers have not been happy with it trying to appeal to the Lib voters, and if the results of the Election achieve any thing, we might just see Labor become the party it should be, that is a party for all Australians unlike the Lib’s that only care about the wealthy, and please stop attacking the GG, when you used the GG in 1975.
      I strongly believe that the future will prove that this Election’s results will make Australia’s Government who ever wins better.
      Personal attacks by both sides on the leaders, is very petty and small minded.

      Reply

    • Tails says:

      03:08pm | 23/08/10

      There’s no such thing as a Labor believer. Labor barracker, yes. Believer, no.
      A believer sticks to their guns. A believer holds firm their beliefs.
      A barracker shouts and harangues and believes their team can do know wrong contrary to all available evidence.
      A barracker is one eyed and will remain one eyed for all eternity.
      A barracker calls the opposition names and cries foul when the ref calls things against them.

      Have a really good look at the Labor party and their actions over the last two years. It would make a “true believer” blush.

      Only a barracker would still be standing up for them.

    • Mayday says:

      05:50pm | 23/08/10

      You put him on his head Tails, well said!

    • Jason mc says:

      01:49pm | 23/08/10

      Julia’s partner shoud get into action - so she can take paid parental leave and then disappear.

      Reply

    • PJ says:

      04:51pm | 23/08/10

      Too late Jason—even IVF [if they can get a sample ] does have it’s age limits. Regards.

    • Richard says:

      03:26pm | 23/08/10

      C’mon you Labor supporters~ put on your objective thinking caps and admit that, based on their respective performances during the campaign, Tony Abbott is a more stable and competent option for PM under these circumstances than Julia Gillard is.

      Just accept it: she slithered into power in a sudden midnight coup, hacked n slashed her own government’s policies on mining and asylum seekers to pieces with reckless abandon, (in the former case fudging the numbers to try and hide how weak she really is and in the latter case causing a major diplomatic insult to both Indonesia and East Timor in the process), came up with a gasbag waffle policy on Climate Change that was rightly derided, switched to and fro between different personas at numerous times during the campaign, was unable to handle Mark Latham professionally (even though she was his closest supporter in the past), and lied about speaking “off the cuff” at the National Labor launch last week when her notes had been sneakily placed right there in front of her. She tried to kill Kevin Rudd’s career, then tried to revive it, and was completely sidelined internationally when he used his diplomatic influence to score a plumb job at the UN behind her back. She is the neurotic and ineffectual leader of a divided and recriminous rabble, she could not provide stable leadership even if her party did have an absolute majority.

      Now compare this to Tony Abbott’s performance since ascending to the head of the opposition: He has not made one single mistake, despite being placed under twice as much scrutiny as every other leader. He has been subjected to intense ridicule and disparagement by most of the press and Television satirists, yet he has united his party made such a strong stand that even his former rival Malcolm Turnbull has publicly stated that he could not have done a better job than Tony Abbott. Another former rival, Joe Hockey, has emphatically stated that Tony Abbott is the most qualified person for the role as PM. He has steadily and progressively showed us that he is a suitable candidate for the job, and the more the electorate has seen of him, the more and more they have liked and supported him.

      Now it should never have come to this: Kevin Rudd should have led his government to a comfortable victory with at least 52% of the 2PP compared to 48% coalition vote, and it almost certainly would have happened like that if sanity had prevailed on July 23/24 or if Julia Gillard had honoured her commitment to give the PM more time. But there is no turning back the clock and what was done is done, and we have to deal with the situation that we find ourselves in now.

      The three independents will not want to lightly relinquish their new-found stranglehold on the balance of power, and they will be eager to do a deal to prevent another election any time soon. Seeing as they all come from electorates with an overwhelmingly strong anti-labor sentiment, you Labor fans must all now accept that it a Tony Abbott minority government is the only viable option to provide stable government for the next 3 years.

      Sucked in :p

      Reply

    • acotrel says:

      10:56pm | 23/08/10

      Magnaminous in victory?  I note that Andrew Robb is predicting bloodletting in the Labor party, he should take some leave to get out of his depression. Does this latest turn of events mean that now Tony Abbott has mandate to bring back Workchoices?  The promise not to do that was probably ‘non-core’?

    • Polywatcher says:

      03:28pm | 23/08/10

      Interesting how Labor has always turned to females to clean up their mess.
      Anna Bilgh - Queensland, Carmen Lawrence - Western Australia, Joan Kerner - Victoria & Kristina Keneally - NSW. They wereeach presented with the mop and bucket and all failed. Watch this space for the next female leader who was presented with the Federal mop and bucket.

      Reply

    • AJ says:

      08:37am | 24/08/10

      More poisoned chalice than mop and bucket.

    • Old Boy says:

      04:43pm | 23/08/10

      At least we may get some better policies for all with the Indepndents working with the Liberal Colation that will serve all Australians

      Reply

    • Brad says:

      05:37pm | 23/08/10

      Have a look at the ALP vote in each of the 3 Conservative Independents seats, they average less than 20%.

      The would all be hung drawn and quartered if they voted with the ALP, and it would be last time the where elected.

      They will have to consider there constituents first, and that will we the final consideration.

      The WA NATs are a prime example and it works.

      Reply

    • Shelley says:

      05:48pm | 23/08/10

      Gillard promised Rudd a position. If re-elected what does the ALP plan to give Rudd?
      Treasurer? Foreign minister?
      PM?
      Or will they be moving forward with another back-flip?

      Reply

    • Clarktor says:

      08:02pm | 23/08/10

      This article is spot on. In politics, momentum counts for a lot and in this case it is clearly with the Coalition. The ALP may salvage a minority government but they will be on a knife edge and a hiding to nothing. There WILL be bloodshed in the ALP no matter what happens which will destabilise it and affect its ability to govern.

      They will need to have a blemish free term in government in order to survive another term. If there is any more waste or stuff ups and the independents support a no-confidence motion on the basis of incompetence then they will be destroyed and out of office for 2+ terms. If stable government is the priority then the independants cannot form government with the ALP. If there is another election my feeling is that the Coalition will win comfortably.

      Reply
 
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